Improving pest monitoring networks using a simulation-based approach to contribute to pesticide reduction.

Conventional pest management mainly relies on the use of pesticides. However, the negative externalities of pesticides are now well known. More sustainable practices, such as Integrated Pest Management, are necessary to limit crop damage from pathogens, pests and weeds in agroecosystems. Reducing pesticide use requires information to determine whether chemical treatments are really needed. Pest monitoring networks (PMNs) are key contributors to this information. However, the effectiveness of a PMN in delivering relevant information about pests depends on its spatial sampling resolution and its memory length. The trade-off between the monitoring efforts and the usefulness of the information provided is highly dependent on pest ecological traits, the damage they can cause (in terms of crop losses), and economic drivers (production costs, agriculture product prices and incentives). Due to the high complexity of optimising PMNs, we have developed a theoretical model that belongs to the family of Dynamic Bayesian Networks in order to compare several PMNs performances. This model links the characteristics of a PMN to treatment decisions and the resulting pest dynamics. Using simulation and inference tools for graphical models, we derived the proportion of impacted fields, the number of pesticide treatments and the overall gross margins for three types of pest with contrasting levels of endocyclism. The term "endocyclic" refers to an organism whose development is mostly restricted to a field and highly depends on the inoculum present in the considered field. The presence of purely endocyclic pests at a given time increases the probability of reoccurrence. Conversely, slightly endocyclic pests have a low persistence. The simulation analysis considered ten scenarios: an expected margin-based strategy with a spatial resolution of four PMNs and two memory lengths (one year or eight years), as well as two extreme crop protection strategies (systematic treatments on all fields and systematic no treatment). For purely and mainly endocyclic pests (e.g. soil-borne pathogens and most weeds, respectively), we found that increasing the spatial resolution of PMNs made it possible to significantly decrease the number of treatments required for pest control. Taking past observations into account was also effective, but to a lesser extent. PMN information had virtually no influence on the control of non-endocyclic pests (such as flying insects or airborne plant pathogens) which may be due to the spatial coverage addressed in our study. The next step is to extend the analysis of PMNs and to integrate the information generated by PMNs into sustainable pest management strategies, both at the field and the landscape level.

The value of understanding feedbacks from ecosystem functions to species for managing ecosystems.

Ecological systems are made up of complex and often unknown interactions and feedbacks. Uncovering these interactions and feedbacks among species, ecosystem functions, and ecosystem services is challenging, costly, and time-consuming. Here, we ask: for which ecosystem features does resolving the uncertainty about the feedbacks from ecosystem function to species improve management outcomes? We develop a dynamic value of information analysis for risk-neutral and risk-prone managers on motif ecosystems and explore the influence of five ecological features. We find that learning the feedbacks from ecosystem function to species does not improve management outcomes for maximising biodiversity, yet learning which species benefit from an ecosystem function improves management outcomes for ecosystem services by up to 25% for risk-neutral managers and 231% for risk-prone managers. Our general approach provides useful guidance for managers and researchers on when learning feedbacks from ecosystem function to species can improve management outcomes for multiple conservation objectives.

Annotation data about multi criteria assessment methods used in the agri-food research: The french national institute for agricultural research (INRA) experience.

This data article contains annotation data characterizing Multi Criteria Assessment (MCA) Methods proposed in the agri-food sector by researchers from INRA, Europe's largest agricultural research institute (INRA, http://institut.inra.fr/en). MCA can be used to assess and compare agricultural and food systems, and support multi-actor decision making and design of innovative systems for crop production, animal production and processing of agricultural products. These data are stored in a public repository managed by INRA (https://data.inra.fr/; https://doi.org/10.15454/WB51LL).

Dynamic minimum set problem for reserve design: Heuristic solutions for large problems.

Conversion of wild habitats to human dominated landscape is a major cause of biodiversity loss. An approach to mitigate the impact of habitat loss consists of designating reserves where habitat is preserved and managed. Determining the most valuable areas to preserve in a landscape is called the reserve design problem. There exists several possible formulations of the reserve design problem, depending on the objectives and the constraints. In this article, we considered the dynamic problem of designing a reserve that contains a desired area of several key habitats. The dynamic case implies that the reserve cannot be designed in one time step, due to budget constraints, and that habitats can be lost before they are reserved, due for example to climate change or human development. We proposed two heuristics strategies that can be used to select sites to reserve each year for large reserve design problem. The first heuristic is a combination of the Marxan and site-ordering algorithms and the second heuristic is an augmented version of the common naive myopic heuristic. We evaluated the strategies on several simulated examples and showed that the augmented greedy heuristic is particularly interesting when some of the habitats to protect are particularly threatened and/or the compactness of the network is accounted for.

GMDPtoolbox: A Matlab library for designing spatial management policies. Application to the long-term collective management of an airborne disease.

Designing management policies in ecology and agroecology is complex. Several components must be managed together while they strongly interact spatially. Decision choices must be made under uncertainty on the results of the actions and on the system dynamics. Furthermore, the objectives pursued when managing ecological systems or agroecosystems are usually long term objectives, such as biodiversity conservation or sustainable crop production. The framework of Graph-Based Markov Decision Processes (GMDP) is well adapted to the qualitative modeling of such problems of sequential decision under uncertainty. Spatial interactions are easily modeled and integrated control policies (combining several action levers) can be designed through optimization. The provided policies are adaptive, meaning that management actions are decided at each time step (for instance yearly) and the chosen actions depend on the current system state. This framework has already been successfully applied to forest management and invasive species management. However, up to now, no "easy-to-use" implementation of this framework was available. We present GMDPtoolbox, a Matlab toolbox which can be used both for the design of new management policies and for comparing policies by simulation. We provide an illustration of the use of the toolbox on a realistic crop disease management problem: the design of long term management policy of blackleg of canola using an optimal combination of three possible cultural levers. This example shows how GMDPtoolbox can be used as a tool to support expert thinking.

Dynamics of Weeds in the Soil Seed Bank: A Hidden Markov Model to Estimate Life History Traits from Standing Plant Time Series.

Predicting the population dynamics of annual plants is a challenge due to their hidden seed banks in the field. However, such predictions are highly valuable for determining management strategies, specifically in agricultural landscapes. In agroecosystems, most weed seeds survive during unfavourable seasons and persist for several years in the seed bank. This causes difficulties in making accurate predictions of weed population dynamics and life history traits (LHT). Consequently, it is very difficult to identify management strategies that limit both weed populations and species diversity. In this article, we present a method of assessing weed population dynamics from both standing plant time series data and an unknown seed bank. We use a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to obtain estimates of over 3,080 botanical records for three major LHT: seed survival in the soil, plant establishment (including post-emergence mortality), and seed production of 18 common weed species. Maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches were complementarily used to estimate LHT values. The results showed that the LHT provided by the HMM enabled fairly accurate estimates of weed populations in different crops. There was a positive correlation between estimated germination rates and an index of the specialisation to the crop type (IndVal). The relationships between estimated LHTs and that between the estimated LHTs and the ecological characteristics of weeds provided insights into weed strategies. For example, a common strategy to cope with agricultural practices in several weeds was to produce less seeds and increase germination rates. This knowledge, especially of LHT for each type of crop, should provide valuable information for developing sustainable weed management strategies.