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1.
Nat Commun ; 15(1): 2152, 2024 Mar 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38461311

RESUMO

SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs) circulated cryptically before being identified as a threat, delaying interventions. Here we studied the drivers of such silent spread and its epidemic impact to inform future response planning. We focused on Alpha spread out of the UK. We integrated spatio-temporal records of international mobility, local epidemic growth and genomic surveillance into a Bayesian framework to reconstruct the first three months after Alpha emergence. We found that silent circulation lasted from days to months and decreased with the logarithm of sequencing coverage. Social restrictions in some countries likely delayed the establishment of local transmission, mitigating the negative consequences of late detection. Revisiting the initial spread of Alpha supports local mitigation at the destination in case of emerging events.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Epidemias , Humanos , Teorema de Bayes , COVID-19/epidemiologia , SARS-CoV-2/genética
2.
Sci Rep ; 14(1): 5418, 2024 03 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38443618

RESUMO

Data on the SARS-CoV-2 infection among primary health care workers (PHCWs) are scarce but essential to reflect on policy regarding prevention and control measures. We assessed the prevalence of PHCWs who have been infected by SARS-CoV-2 in comparison with modeling from the general population in metropolitan France, and associated factors. A cross-sectional study was conducted among general practitioners (GPs), pediatricians, dental and pharmacy workers in primary care between May and August 2021. Participants volunteered to provide a dried-blood spot for SARS-CoV-2 antibody assessment and completed a questionnaire. The primary outcome was defined as the detection of infection-induced antibodies (anti-nucleocapsid IgG, and for non-vaccinees: anti-Spike IgG and neutralizing antibodies) or previous self-reported infection (positive RT-qPCR or antigenic test, or positive ELISA test before vaccination). Estimates were adjusted using weights for representativeness and compared with prediction from the general population. Poisson regressions were used to quantify associated factors. The analysis included 1612 PHCWs. Weighted prevalences were: 31.7% (95% CI 27.5-36.0) for GPs, 28.7% (95% CI 24.4-33.0) for pediatricians, 25.2% (95% CI 20.6-31.0) for dentists, and 25.5% (95% CI 18.2-34.0) for pharmacists. Estimates were compatible with model predictions for the general population. PHCWs more likely to be infected were: GPs compared to pharmacist assistants (adjusted prevalence ratio [aPR] = 2.26; CI 95% 1.01-5.07), those living in Île-de-France (aPR = 1.53; CI 95% 1.14-2.05), South-East (aPR = 1.57; CI 95% 1.19-2.08), North-East (aPR = 1.81; CI 95% 1.38-2.37), and those having an unprotected contact with a COVID-19 case within the household (aPR = 1.48; CI 95% 1.22-1.80). Occupational factors were not associated with infection. In conclusion, the risk of SARS-CoV-2 exposure for PHCWs was more likely to have occurred in the community rather than at their workplace.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Clínicos Gerais , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Prevalência , SARS-CoV-2 , Estudos Transversais , Anticorpos Neutralizantes , França/epidemiologia , Imunoglobulina G
3.
BMC Infect Dis ; 24(1): 21, 2024 Jan 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38166649

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: France implemented a combination of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to manage the COVID-19 pandemic between September 2020 and June 2021. These included a lockdown in the fall 2020 - the second since the start of the pandemic - to counteract the second wave, followed by a long period of nighttime curfew, and by a third lockdown in the spring 2021 against the Alpha wave. Interventions have so far been evaluated in isolation, neglecting the spatial connectivity between regions through mobility that may impact NPI effectiveness. METHODS: Focusing on September 2020-June 2021, we developed a regionally-based epidemic metapopulation model informed by observed mobility fluxes from daily mobile phone data and fitted the model to regional hospital admissions. The model integrated data on vaccination and variants spread. Scenarios were designed to assess the impact of the Alpha variant, characterized by increased transmissibility and risk of hospitalization, of the vaccination campaign and alternative policy decisions. RESULTS: The spatial model better captured the heterogeneity observed in the regional dynamics, compared to models neglecting inter-regional mobility. The third lockdown was similarly effective to the second lockdown after discounting for immunity, Alpha, and seasonality (51% vs 52% median regional reduction in the reproductive number R0, respectively). The 6pm nighttime curfew with bars and restaurants closed, implemented in January 2021, substantially reduced COVID-19 transmission. It initially led to 49% median regional reduction of R0, decreasing to 43% reduction by March 2021. In absence of vaccination, implemented interventions would have been insufficient against the Alpha wave. Counterfactual scenarios proposing a sequence of lockdowns in a stop-and-go fashion would have reduced hospitalizations and restriction days for low enough thresholds triggering and lifting restrictions. CONCLUSIONS: Spatial connectivity induced by mobility impacted the effectiveness of interventions especially in regions with higher mobility rates. Early evening curfew with gastronomy sector closed allowed authorities to delay the third wave. Stop-and-go lockdowns could have substantially lowered both healthcare and societal burdens if implemented early enough, compared to the observed application of lockdown-curfew-lockdown, but likely at the expense of several labor sectors. These findings contribute to characterize the effectiveness of implemented strategies and improve pandemic preparedness.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Telefone Celular , Humanos , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , França/epidemiologia , Instalações de Saúde
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