An uncertainty estimate of the prevalence of stunting in national surveys: the need for better precision.

BACKGROUND: Stunting is determined by using the World Health Organization (WHO) child growth standard which was developed using precise measurements. However, it is unlikely that large scale surveys maintain the same level of rigour and precision when measuring the height of children. The population measure of stunting in children is sensitive to over-dispersion, and the high prevalence of stunting observed in surveys in low and middle-income countries (LMIC) could partly be due to lower measurement precison. OBJECTIVES: To quantify the incongruence in the dispersion of height-for-age in national surveys of < 5 y children, in relation to the standard WHO Multicenter Growth Reference Study (MGRS), and propose a measure of uncertainty in population measures of stunting. METHODS: An uncertainty factor was proposed and measured from the observed incongruence in dispersion of the height-for-age of < 5 y children in the MGRS against carefully matched populations from the Demographic Health Survey of 17 countries ('test datasets', based on the availability of data). This also allowed for the determination of uncertainty-corrected prevalence of stunting (height-for-age Z score < - 2) in < 5 y children. RESULTS: The uncertainty factor was estimated for 17 LMICs. This ranged from 0.9 to 2.1 for Peru and Egypt respectively (reference value 1). As an explicit country example, the dispersion of height-for-age in the Indian National Family Health Survey-4 test dataset was 39% higher than the MGRS study, with an uncertainty factor of 1.39. From this, the uncertainty-adjusted Indian national stunting prevalence estimate reduced to 18.7% from the unadjusted estimate of 36.2%. CONCLUSIONS: This study proposes a robust statistical method to estimate uncertainty in stunting prevalence estimates due to incongruent dispersions of height measured in national surveys for children < 5 years in relation to the WHO height-for-age standard. The uncertainty is partly due to population heterogeneity, but also due to measurement precision, and calls for better quality in these measurements.

Associations of linear growth and relative weight gain during early life with adult health and human capital in countries of low and middle income: findings from five birth cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: Fast weight gain and linear growth in children in low-income and middle-income countries are associated with enhanced survival and improved cognitive development, but might increase risk of obesity and related adult cardiometabolic diseases. We investigated how linear growth and relative weight gain during infancy and childhood are related to health and human capital outcomes in young adults. METHODS: We used data from five prospective birth cohort studies from Brazil, Guatemala, India, the Philippines, and South Africa. We investigated body-mass index, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, plasma glucose concentration, height, years of attained schooling, and related categorical indicators of adverse outcomes in young adults. With linear and logistic regression models, we assessed how these outcomes relate to birthweight and to statistically independent measures representing linear growth and weight gain independent of linear growth (relative weight gain) in three age periods: 0-2 years, 2 years to mid-childhood, and mid-childhood to adulthood. FINDINGS: We obtained data for 8362 participants who had at least one adult outcome of interest. A higher birthweight was consistently associated with an adult body-mass index of greater than 25 kg/m(2) (odds ratio 1·28, 95% CI 1·21-1·35) and a reduced likelihood of short adult stature (0·49, 0·44-0·54) and of not completing secondary school (0·82, 0·78-0·87). Faster linear growth was strongly associated with a reduced risk of short adult stature (age 2 years: 0·23, 0·20-0·52; mid-childhood: 0·39, 0·36-0·43) and of not completing secondary school (age 2 years: 0·74, 0·67-0·78; mid-childhood: 0·87, 0·83-0·92), but did raise the likelihood of overweight (age 2 years: 1·24, 1·17-1·31; mid-childhood: 1·12, 1·06-1·18) and elevated blood pressure (age 2 years: 1·12, 1·06-1·19; mid-childhood: 1·07, 1·01-1·13). Faster relative weight gain was associated with an increased risk of adult overweight (age 2 years: 1·51, 1·43-1·60; mid-childhood: 1·76, 1·69-1·91) and elevated blood pressure (age 2 years: 1·07, 1·01-1·13; mid-childhood: 1·22, 1·15-1·30). Linear growth and relative weight gain were not associated with dysglycaemia, but a higher birthweight was associated with decreased risk of the disorder (0·89, 0·81-0·98). INTERPRETATION: Interventions in countries of low and middle income to increase birthweight and linear growth during the first 2 years of life are likely to result in substantial gains in height and schooling and give some protection from adult chronic disease risk factors, with few adverse trade-offs. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Maternal height and child growth patterns.

OBJECTIVE: To examine associations between maternal height and child growth during 4 developmental periods: intrauterine, birth to age 2 years, age 2 years to mid-childhood (MC), and MC to adulthood. STUDY DESIGN: Pooled analysis of maternal height and offspring growth using 7630 mother-child pairs from 5 birth cohorts (Brazil, Guatemala, India, the Philippines, and South Africa). We used conditional height measures that control for collinearity in height across periods. We estimated associations between maternal height and offspring growth using multivariate regression models adjusted for household income, child sex, birth order, and study site. RESULTS: Maternal height was associated with birth weight and with both height and conditional height at each age examined. The strongest associations with conditional heights were for adulthood and 2 years of age. A 1-cm increase in maternal height predicted a 0.024 (95% CI: 0.021-0.028) SD increase in offspring birth weight, a 0.037 (95% CI: 0.033-0.040) SD increase in conditional height at 2 years, a 0.025 (95% CI: 0.021-0.029 SD increase in conditional height in MC, and a 0.044 (95% CI: 0.040-0.048) SD increase in conditional height in adulthood. Short mothers (<150.1 cm) were more likely to have a child who was stunted at 2 years (prevalence ratio = 3.20 (95% CI: 2.80-3.60) and as an adult (prevalence ratio = 4.74, (95% CI: 4.13-5.44). There was no evidence of heterogeneity by site or sex. CONCLUSION: Maternal height influences offspring linear growth over the growing period. These influences likely include genetic and non-genetic factors, including nutrition-related intergenerational influences on growth that prevent the attainment of genetic height potential in low- and middle-income countries.

Size at birth, weight gain in infancy and childhood, and adult blood pressure in 5 low- and middle-income-country cohorts: when does weight gain matter?

BACKGROUND: Promoting catch-up growth in malnourished children has health benefits, but recent evidence suggests that accelerated child weight gain increases adult chronic disease risk. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to determine how birth weight (BW) and weight gain to midchildhood relate to blood pressure (BP) in young adults. DESIGN: We pooled data from birth cohorts in Brazil, Guatemala, India, the Philippines, and South Africa. We used conditional weight (CW), a residual of current weight regressed on prior weights, to represent deviations from expected weight gain from 0 to 12, 12 to 24, 24 to 48 mo, and 48 mo to adulthood. Adult BP and risk of prehypertension or hypertension (P/HTN) were modeled before and after adjustment for adult body mass index (BMI) and height. Interactions of CWs with small size-for-gestational age (SGA) at birth were tested. RESULTS: Higher CWs were associated with increased BP and odds of P/HTN, with coefficients proportional to the contribution of each CW to adult BMI. Adjusted for adult height and BMI, no child CW was associated with adult BP, but 1 SD of BW was related to a 0.5-mm Hg lower systolic BP and a 9% lower odds of P/HTN. BW and CW associations with systolic BP and P/HTN were not different between adults born SGA and those with normal BW, but higher CW at 48 mo was associated with higher diastolic BP in those born SGA. CONCLUSIONS: Greater weight gain at any age relates to elevated adult BP, but faster weight gains in infancy and young childhood do not pose a higher risk than do gains at other ages.

Maternal and child undernutrition: consequences for adult health and human capital.

In this paper we review the associations between maternal and child undernutrition with human capital and risk of adult diseases in low-income and middle-income countries. We analysed data from five long-standing prospective cohort studies from Brazil, Guatemala, India, the Philippines, and South Africa and noted that indices of maternal and child undernutrition (maternal height, birthweight, intrauterine growth restriction, and weight, height, and body-mass index at 2 years according to the new WHO growth standards) were related to adult outcomes (height, schooling, income or assets, offspring birthweight, body-mass index, glucose concentrations, blood pressure). We undertook systematic reviews of studies from low-income and middle-income countries for these outcomes and for indicators related to blood lipids, cardiovascular disease, lung and immune function, cancers, osteoporosis, and mental illness. Undernutrition was strongly associated, both in the review of published work and in new analyses, with shorter adult height, less schooling, reduced economic productivity, and--for women--lower offspring birthweight. Associations with adult disease indicators were not so clear-cut. Increased size at birth and in childhood were positively associated with adult body-mass index and to a lesser extent with blood pressure values, but not with blood glucose concentrations. In our new analyses and in published work, lower birthweight and undernutrition in childhood were risk factors for high glucose concentrations, blood pressure, and harmful lipid profiles once adult body-mass index and height were adjusted for, suggesting that rapid postnatal weight gain--especially after infancy--is linked to these conditions. The review of published works indicates that there is insufficient information about long-term changes in immune function, blood lipids, or osteoporosis indicators. Birthweight is positively associated with lung function and with the incidence of some cancers, and undernutrition could be associated with mental illness. We noted that height-for-age at 2 years was the best predictor of human capital and that undernutrition is associated with lower human capital. We conclude that damage suffered in early life leads to permanent impairment, and might also affect future generations. Its prevention will probably bring about important health, educational, and economic benefits. Chronic diseases are especially common in undernourished children who experience rapid weight gain after infancy.