Strengthening event-based surveillance (EBS): a case study from Afghanistan.

The sustained instability in Afghanistan, along with ongoing disease outbreaks and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, has significantly affected the country.During the COVID-19 pandemic, the country's detection and response capacities faced challenges. Case identification was done in all health facilities from primary to tertiary levels but neglected cases at the community level, resulting in undetected and uncontrolled transmission from communities. This emphasizes a missed opportunity for early detection that Event-Based Surveillance (EBS) could have facilitated.Therefore, Afghanistan planned to strengthen the EBS component of the national public health surveillance system to enhance the capacity for the rapid detection and response to infectious disease outbreaks, including COVID-19 and other emerging diseases. This effort was undertaken to promptly mitigate the impact of such outbreaks.We conducted a landscape assessment of Afghanistan's public health surveillance system to identify the best way to enhance EBS, and then we crafted an implementation work plan. The work plan included the following steps: establishing an EBS multisectoral coordination and working group, identifying EBS information sources, prioritizing public health events of importance, defining signals, establishing reporting mechanisms, and developing standard operating procedures and training guides.EBS is currently being piloted in seven provinces in Afghanistan. The lessons learned from the pilot phase will support its overall expansion throughout the country.

Achieving integrated disease surveillance in the Eastern Mediterranean Region.

Access to reliable and timely information is key for healthcare decision-making at the regional, national and sub-national levels. However, lack of access to such information hampers to progress towards achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR), as indicated in the Regional Progress Report on Health-Related Sustainable Development Goals.

COVID-19 morbidity in Afghanistan: a nationwide, population-based seroepidemiological study.

OBJECTIVE: The primary objectives were to determine the magnitude of COVID-19 infections in the general population and age-specific cumulative incidence, as determined by seropositivity and clinical symptoms of COVID-19, and to determine the magnitude of asymptomatic or subclinical infections. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: We describe a population-based, cross-sectional, age-stratified seroepidemiological study conducted throughout Afghanistan during June/July 2020. Participants were interviewed to complete a questionnaire, and rapid diagnostic tests were used to test for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. This national study was conducted in eight regions of Afghanistan plus Kabul province, considered a separate region. The total sample size was 9514, and the number of participants required in each region was estimated proportionally to the population size of each region. For each region, 31-44 enumeration areas (EAs) were randomly selected, and a total of 360 clusters and 16 households per EA were selected using random sampling. To adjust the seroprevalence for test sensitivity and specificity, and seroreversion, Bernoulli's model methodology was used to infer the population exposure in Afghanistan. OUTCOME MEASURES: The main outcome was to determine the prevalence of current or past COVID-19 infection. RESULTS: The survey revealed that, to July 2020, around 10 million people in Afghanistan (31.5% of the population) had either current or previous COVID-19 infection. By age group, COVID-19 seroprevalence was reported to be 35.1% and 25.3% among participants aged ≥18 and 5-17 years, respectively. This implies that most of the population remained at risk of infection. However, a large proportion of the population had been infected in some localities, for example, Kabul province, where more than half of the population had been infected with COVID-19. CONCLUSION: As most of the population remained at risk of infection at the time of the study, any lifting of public health and social measures needed to be considered gradually.

Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases in the WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region, 2001-2018.

BACKGROUND: Countries in the World Health Organization (WHO) Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) are predisposed to highly contagious, severe and fatal, emerging infectious diseases (EIDs), and re-emerging infectious diseases (RIDs). This paper reviews the epidemiological situation of EIDs and RIDs of global concern in the EMR between 2001 and 2018. METHODS: To do a narrative review, a complete list of studies in the field was we prepared following a systematic search approach. Studies that were purposively reviewed were identified to summarize the epidemiological situation of each targeted disease. A comprehensive search of all published studies on EIDs and RIDs between 2001 and 2018 was carried out through search engines including Medline, Web of Science, Scopus, Google Scholar, and ScienceDirect. RESULTS: Leishmaniasis, hepatitis A virus (HAV) and hepatitis E virus (HEV) are reported from all countries in the region. Chikungunya, Crimean Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF), dengue fever, and H5N1 have been increasing in number, frequency, and expanding in their geographic distribution. Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), which was reported in this region in 2012 is still a public health concern. There are challenges to control cholera, diphtheria, leishmaniasis, measles, and poliomyelitis in some of the countries. Moreover, Alkhurma hemorrhagic fever (AHF), and Rift Valley fever (RVF) are limited to some countries in the region. Also, there is little information about the real situation of the plague, Q fever, and tularemia. CONCLUSION: EIDs and RIDs are prevalent in most countries in the region and could further spread within the region. It is crucial to improve regional capacities and capabilities in preventing and responding to disease outbreaks with adequate resources and expertise.

Modelling the COVID-19 pandemic in context: an international participatory approach.

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has had an unprecedented impact on multiple levels of society. Not only has the pandemic completely overwhelmed some health systems but it has also changed how scientific evidence is shared and increased the pace at which such evidence is published and consumed, by scientists, policymakers and the wider public. More significantly, the pandemic has created tremendous challenges for decision-makers, who have had to implement highly disruptive containment measures with very little empirical scientific evidence to support their decision-making process. Given this lack of data, predictive mathematical models have played an increasingly prominent role. In high-income countries, there is a long-standing history of established research groups advising policymakers, whereas a general lack of translational capacity has meant that mathematical models frequently remain inaccessible to policymakers in low-income and middle-income countries. Here, we describe a participatory approach to modelling that aims to circumvent this gap. Our approach involved the creation of an international group of infectious disease modellers and other public health experts, which culminated in the establishment of the COVID-19 Modelling (CoMo) Consortium. Here, we describe how the consortium was formed, the way it functions, the mathematical model used and, crucially, the high degree of engagement fostered between CoMo Consortium members and their respective local policymakers and ministries of health.

Dengue fever as an emerging disease in Afghanistan: Epidemiology of the first reported cases.

OBJECTIVE: This paper aims to describe the epidemiological characteristics and clinical manifestations of the first 15 dengue fever cases reported in Afghanistan. METHODS: A retrospective descriptive analysis of the data on confirmed dengue cases detected by the national disease surveillance system was conducted. Epidemiological, socio-demographic, clinical, laboratory and outcome data from the cases were analyzed. RESULTS: Between May and December 2019, 62 samples were tested for DENV, among which 15 (24.2%) were positive. Seven of the cases were probable autochthonous with no travel history, the other seven cases had a travel history to dengue-endemic countries (five Pakistan, two India) and the travel history for one of the cases was not known. The 15 confirmed cases were reported from six provinces, seven cases (46.7%) were reported from Nangarhar Province, two (13%) from Paktya, and one (6.7%) from Paktika province, bordering with Pakistan, three (20%) were reported from Kabul, and one each (each 6.7%) from Faryab and Laghman provinces. All of the cases manifested fever, headache, myalgia, and arthralgia. Other clinical features were low platelet count (50%), pain behind eyes (36%), rash, and nausea/vomiting (each 21%). CONCLUSION: For the first time, the surveillance system detected and reported locally acquired DENV cases in Afghanistan, mostly in provinces bordering with Pakistan. Population movements between Afghanistan and Pakistan facilitate the cross-border spread of DENV between two countries.

Descriptive epidemiology of Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever (CCHF) in Afghanistan: Reported cases to National Surveillance System, 2016-2018.

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to provide descriptive epidemiology of human CCHF cases in Afghanistan by demographic, geographical, and seasonal characteristics. METHODOLOGY: This paper's findings are based on the retrospective analysis of the National Surveillance System's collected data from 2016 to 2018. Weekly cases exceeding the 90th percentile of the expected number of cases were considered to be exceptional and above normal. RESULTS: The National Surveillance System detected 1,284 CCHF cases from 2007 to 2018, of which 163 cases were in 2016, 245 cases in 2017 and 483 cases in 2018. A total of 891 suspected and confirmed cases were reported between 2016 and 2018, 293 (33%) of these cases were confirmed by detecting IgM antibody using ELISA and RT-PCR. Among confirmed cases, the three-year case fatality ratio (CFR) was 43.3%. Among the reported cases, 68.5% were males and 31.5% females. The frequent reported occupational groups were housewives (15%), health staff (13%), shepherds (11%), butchers (6%), students (6%), animal dealers and farmers (both 2%) respectively, 19% were unemployed, and occupation was not recorded for 26% of cases. CONCLUSION: Recently, CCHF has significantly increased in Afghanistan. Despite the increased frequency of cases, the laboratory capacity to test specimens and overall knowledge of CCHF management remains limited.

Concurrent Brucellosis and Q Fever Infection: a Case Control Study in Bamyan Province, Afghanistan.

BACKGROUND: More than 500,000 people are affected by brucellosis each year while the incidence of Q fever is poorly recorded. Consistent outbreaks of brucellosis have been reported in Afghanistan, affecting social and economic life. This study aimed to determine the means of propagation of brucellosis and Q-fever and establish appropriate control measures for both. METHODS AND MATERIALS: An outbreak of 1,317 cases of brucellosis and Q fever was investigated from May 2011 to the end of 2012 in Bamyan province of Afghanistan. A total of 100 cases were selected by random sampling with equal number of neighbor controls. Data were collected through structured questionnaire. RESULTS: The average age was 30 years ±14 years. Of those sampled, 62% were female, 38% were male, and resided in three districts: Punjab, Yakawlang and Waras. Using multivariate analysis, being a housewife (OR=7.36), being within proximity of kitchens to barns (OR= 2.98), drinking un-boiled milk (OR= 5.26), butchering (OR= 3.53) and purchasing new animals in the last six months (OR= 3.53) were significantly associated with contraction of brucellosis and Q fever. CONCLUSION: Health educators should focus on families dealing with animals, especially on females. Pasturing, healthy milking, dunging, and slaughtering practices, along with use of safe dairy products should be the focus of preventive measures.