Rapid initiation of antiretroviral therapy in Turkey: a modeling study.

Background: To effectively control the HIV epidemic and meet global targets, policymakers recommend the rapid initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART). Our study aims to investigate the effect of rapid ART programs on individuals diagnosed with HIV, considering varying coverage and initiation days after diagnosis, and compare it to standard-of-care ART treatment in Turkey. Methods: We used a dynamic compartmental model to simulate the dynamics of HIV infection in Turkey. Rapid treatment, defined as initiation of ART within 7 days of diagnosis, was contrasted with standard-of-care treatment, which starts within 30 days of diagnosis. This study considered three coverage levels (10%, 50%, and 90%) and two rapid periods (7 and 14 days after diagnosis), comparing them to standard-of-care treatment in evaluating the number of HIV infections between 2020 and 2030. Results: Annual HIV incidence and prevalence for a 10-year period were obtained from model projections. In the absence of a rapid ART program, the model projected approximately 444,000 new HIV cases while the number of cases were reduced to 345,000 (22% reduction) with 90% of diagnosed cases included in the rapid ART program. Similarly, 10% and 50% rapid ART coverage has resulted in 3% and 13% reduction in HIV prevalence over a 10-year period. Conclusion: Rapid ART demonstrates the potential to mitigate the increasing HIV incidence in Turkey by reducing the number of infections. The benefit of the rapid ART program could be substantial when the coverage of the program reaches above a certain percentage of diagnosed population.

Modeling the future of HIV in Turkey: Cost-effectiveness analysis of improving testing and diagnosis.

AIMS: This study aimed to determine HIV incidence and prevalence in Turkey and to estimate the cost-effectiveness of improving testing and diagnosis in the next 20 years. BACKGROUND: HIV incidence in Turkey has been rapidly increasing in the last decade with a particularly high rate of infection for younger populations, which underscores the urgent need for a robust prevention program and improved testing capacity for HIV. METHODS: We developed a dynamic compartmental model of HIV transmission and progression among the Turkish population aged 15-64 and assessed the effect of improving testing and diagnosis. The model generated the number of new HIV cases by transmission risk and CD4 level, HIV diagnoses, HIV prevalence, continuum of care, the number of HIV-related deaths, and the expected number of infections prevented from 2020 to 2040. We also explored the cost impact of HIV and the cost-effectiveness of improving testing and diagnosis. RESULTS: Under the base case scenario, the model estimated an HIV incidence of 13,462 cases in 2020, with 63% undiagnosed. The number of infections was estimated to increase by 27% by 2040, with HIV incidence in 2040 reaching 376,889 and HIV prevalence 2,414,965 cases. Improving testing and diagnosis to 50%, 70%, and 90%, would prevent 782,789, 2,059,399, and 2,336,564 infections-32%, 85%, and 97% reduction in 20 years, respectively. Improved testing and diagnosis would reduce spending between $1.8 and $8.8 billion. CONCLUSIONS: In the case of no improvement in the current continuum of care, HIV incidence and prevalence will significantly increase over the next 20 years, placing a significant burden on the Turkish healthcare system. However, improving testing and diagnosis could substantially reduce the number of infections, ameliorating the public health and disease burden aspects.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Remdesivir Treatment in COVID-19 Patients Requiring Low-Flow Oxygen Therapy: Payer Perspective in Turkey.

INTRODUCTION: This study aims to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of remdesivir compared to other existing therapies (SoC) in Turkey to treat COVID-19 patients hospitalized with < 94% saturation and low-flow oxygen therapy (LFOT) requirement. METHODS: We compared remdesivir as the treatment for COVID-19 with the treatments in the Turkish treatment guidelines. Analyses were performed using data from 78 hospitalized COVID-19 patients with SpO2 < 94% who received LFOT in a tertiary healthcare facility. COVID-19 episode costs were calculated for 78 patients considering the cost of modeled remdesivir treatment in the same group from the payer's perspective. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) was calculated for remdesivir versus the SoC for the population identified. For Turkey, a reimbursement threshold value between USD 8599 (1 × per capita gross domestic product-GDP) and USD 25.797 (3 × GDP) per QALY was used. RESULTS: In the remdesivir arm, the length of hospital stay (LOS) was 3 days shorter than the SOC. The low ventilator requirement in the remdesivir arm was one factor that decreased the QALY disutility value. In patients who were transferred to intensive care unit (ICU) from the ward, the mean LOS was 17.3 days (SD 13.6), and the mean cost of stay was USD 155.3/day (SD 168.0), while in patients who were admitted to ICU at baseline, the mean LOS was 13.1 days (SD 13.7), and the mean cost of stay was USD 207.9/day (SD 133.6). The mean cost of episode per patient was USD 3461.1 (SD 2259.8) in the remdesivir arm and USD 3538.9 (SD 3296.0) in the SOC arm. Incremental QALYs were estimated at 0.174. Remdesivir treatment was determined to be cost saving vs. SoC. CONCLUSIONS: Remdesivir, which results in shorter LOS and lower rates of intubation requirements in ICU patients than existing therapies, is associated with higher QALYs and lower costs, dominating SoC in patients with SpO2 < 94% who require oxygen support.

Cost Effectiveness of Insulin Glargine versus Neutral Protamin Hagedorn Insulin in the Treatment of Type 2 Diabetes Patients in Turkey.

Background: Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) poses a significant burden on population well being and healthcare expenditure in Turkey, with disease prevalence continuing to increase. Insulin treatment is necessary for patients failing to achieve glycaemic control with lifestyle modification or oral antidiabetic drugs. While neutral protamin Hagedorn (NPH) insulin has been traditionally prescribed for insulin introduction, insulin glargine has been shown to reduce glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) with a more favourable hypoglycaemic profile. Objective: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of insulin glargine compared to NPH insulin in patients with T2DM in Turkey, from a Social Security Institution perspective. Methods: A previously published discrete event simulation model of T2DM progression was utilised to characterise the cost-effectiveness of insulin glargine in a Turkish population given the benefits observed in clinical practice. Improvements in glycaemic control have been incorporated using data from The Health Improvement Network (THIN) database in the United Kingdom, combined with meta-regression results describing the relationship between hypoglycaemia and glycaemic control. Outcomes were evaluated over a 40-year horizon, and costs and benefits discounted at an annual rate of 3.5%. Results are reported in Turksih lira (TL), 2012. Results: Over a lifetime, the Incremental Cost-effectiveness Ratio (ICER) of insulin glargine compared to NPH was 40,101 TL per Quality-adjusted Life Year (QALY). Almost 52 hypoglycaemic events per patient were avoided with the use of insulin glargine compared to NPH, at an incremental lifetime cost of 7,140 TL per patient. The cost-effectiveness of insulin glargine is reduced when modelling only those benefits considered in the trial setting, while the cost-effectiveness profile can be expected to further improve in patients with higher HbA1c levels at baseline. Conclusion: It is difficult to interpret the results of modelling as there is no official cost-effectiveness threshold in Turkey. However, the results may be evaluated using thresholds derived according to methodology proposed by the World Health Organisation (WHO). Insulin glargine is expected to be costeffective compared to NPH insulin, with an ICER below three times the estimated gross domestic product (GDP) per capita; 56,850 TL.

Delay and restricted access of new molecules in Turkey compared to the United States and European Union.

OBJECTIVE: This study compares the performances of new-molecule (NM) launches in Turkey with those in the European Union and United States for the years 2007-2013. METHODS: The Thomson Reuters Newport Horizon for Innovators Database is used to identify NMs with a launch date after January 1, 2007, worldwide and marketing authorization approval after January 1, 2007, in the European Union. The launch dates for the European Union, the United States, and Turkey were retrieved from the same database. Data for Turkey were confirmed via IMS and RxMedia. RESULTS: Out of 183 records identified that are launched in the European Union, the United States, or both, 44 of the NMs are launched in Turkey (24%). CONCLUSION: The results of this study show that 24% of the NMs that are launched in either the European Union or United States were able to be launched in Turkey with a mean delay of 821 days (2.25 years).