Transrectal versus transperineal prostate biopsy for cancer detection in patients with gray-zone prostate-specific antigen: a multicenter, real-world study.

Knowledge about the effect of different prostate biopsy approaches on the prostate cancer detection rate (CDR) in patients with gray-zone prostate-specific antigen (PSA) is limited. We performed this study to compare the CDR among patients who underwent different biopsy approaches and had rising PSA levels in the gray zone. Two hundred and twenty-two patients who underwent transrectal prostate biopsy (TRB) and 216 patients who underwent transperineal prostate biopsy (TPB) between June 2016 and September 2022 were reviewed in this study. In addition, 110 patients who received additional targeted biopsies following the systematic TPB were identified. Clinical parameters, including age, PSA derivative, prostate volume (PV), and needle core count, were recorded. The data were fitted via propensity score matching (PSM), adjusting for potential confounders. TPB outperformed TRB in terms of the CDR (49.6% vs 28.3%, P = 0.001). The clinically significant prostate cancer (csPCa) detection rate was not significantly different between TPB and TRB (78.6% vs 68.8%, P = 0.306). In stratified analysis, TPB outperformed TRB in CDR when the age of patients was 65-75 years (59.0% vs 22.0%, P < 0.001), when PV was 25.00-50.00 ml (63.2% vs 28.3%, P < 0.001), and when needle core count was no more than 12 (58.5% vs 31.5%, P = 0.005). The CDR (P = 0.712) and detection rate of csPCa (P = 0.993) did not significantly differ among the systematic, targeted, and combined biopsies. TPB outperformed TRB in CDR for patients with gray-zone PSA. Moreover, performing target biopsy after systematic TPB provided no additional benefits in CDR.

Insomnia Burden among Informal Caregivers of Hospitalized Lung Cancer Patients and Its Influencing Factors.

Objective: This study aimed to reveal the insomnia burden and relevant influencing factors among informal caregivers (ICs) of hospitalized patients with lung cancer. Methods: A cross-sectional study on ICs of hospitalized patients with lung cancer was conducted from December 31, 2020 to December 31, 2021. ICs' burden was assessed using the Caregiver Reaction Assessment (CRA), Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS), and Insomnia Severity Index (ISI). Linear and logistic regression models were used to identify the influencing factors. Results: Among 289 ICs of hospitalized patients with lung cancer, 83 (28.72%), 53 (18.34%), and 14 (4.84%) ICs experienced mild, moderate, and severe insomnia, respectively. The scores concerning self-esteem, lack of family support, financial problems, disturbed schedule, and health problems were 4.32 ± 0.53, 2.24 ± 0.79, 2.84 ± 1.14, 3.63 ± 0.77, and 2.44 ± 0.95, respectively. ICs with higher Activities of Daily Living Scale (ADLS) scores were associated with a lower risk of insomnia, with an odd ratio ( OR) and 95% confidence interval ( CI) of 0.940 (0.898-0.983). Among the ICs, female gender ( OR = 2.597), alcohol consumption ( OR = 3.745), underlying medical conditions ( OR = 11.765), long-term caregiving experience ( OR = 37.037), and higher monthly expenses ( OR = 5.714) were associated with a high risk of insomnia. Conclusion: Of the hospitalized patients with lung cancer, 51.9% experienced insomnia. Patients' ADL, ICs gender, alcohol consumption, underlying medical conditions, caregiving duration, and monthly expenses were influencing factors. Therefore, prompt screening and early intervention for ICs of patients with lung cancer is necessary.

Effect of Home Blood Pressure Telemonitoring Plus Additional Support on Blood Pressure Control: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Objective: Current clinical evidence on the effects of home blood pressure telemonitoring (HBPT) on improving blood pressure control comes entirely from developed countries. Thus, we performed this randomized controlled trial to evaluate whether HBPT plus support (patient education and clinician remote hypertension management) improves blood pressure control more than usual care (UC) in the Chinese population. Methods: This single-center, randomized controlled study was conducted in Beijing, China. Patients aged 30-75 years were eligible for enrolment if they had blood pressure [systolic (SBP) ≥ 140 mmHg and/or diastolic (DBP) ≥ 90 mmHg; or SBP ≥ 130 mmHg and/or DBP ≥ 80 mmHg with diabetes]. We recruited 190 patients randomized to either the HBPT or the UC groups for 12 weeks. The primary endpoints were blood pressure reduction and the proportion of patients achieving the target blood pressure. Results: Totally, 172 patients completed the study, the HBPT plus support group ( n = 84), and the UC group ( n = 88). Patients in the plus support group showed a greater reduction in mean ambulatory blood pressure than those in the UC group. The plus support group had a significantly higher proportion of patients who achieved the target blood pressure and maintained a dipper blood pressure pattern at the 12th week of follow-up. Additionally, the patients in the plus support group showed lower blood pressure variability and higher drug adherence than those in the UC group. Conclusion: HBPT plus additional support results in greater blood pressure reduction, better blood pressure control, a higher proportion of dipper blood pressure patterns, lower blood pressure variability, and higher drug adherence than UC. The development of telemedicine may be the cornerstone of hypertension management in primary care.

Combined Effect of Smoking and Obesity on Coronary Heart Disease Mortality in Male Veterans: A 30-year Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: Evidence is lacking regarding the combined effects of smoking and obesity on mortality from coronary heart disease in male veterans. This study aimed to explore the combined effect of smoking and obesity on coronary heart disease mortality in male veterans in China. METHODS: A cohort of 1,268 male veterans from 22 veteran centers in Xi'an (Shaanxi Province, China) were followed up once every 2 years from February 1, 1987 to October 30, 2016. The endpoint was death from any cause. The hazard ratio ( HR) of each risk factor and the 95% confidence interval ( CI) were calculated using a multivariate Cox proportional hazard model. RESULTS: The total follow-up was 24394.21 person-years; each subject was followed up for a mean duration of 19.24 years. By the end of the study, of the 1,268 veterans, 889 had died, 363 were alive, and 16 were lost to follow-up. Cox regression analysis results revealed that current smoking ( HR: 1.552, 95% CI: 1.074-2.243), obesity ( HR: 1.625, 95% CI: 1.024-2.581), and the combined effect of the two factors ( HR: 2.828, 95% CI: 1.520-5.262) were associated with coronary heart disease mortality. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that obese veterans who smoke might be an important target population for coronary heart disease mortality control.

Effect of antibiotic therapy in patients with ulcerative colitis: a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

BACKGROUND: Gut microbiota may play a role in the pathogenesis of ulcerative colitis (UC). Antibiotic therapy for patients with UC has shown conflicting results. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the effect of antibiotic therapy in treating UC. METHODS: PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, Wanfang Data, and China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) databases were searched to identify randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that evaluated antibiotics compared with placebo or no antibiotics in patients with UC. We extracted and pooled the risk ratio (RR). RESULTS: Twelve RCTs were included in this systematic review and meta-analysis, which included 739 patients with active UC. Antibiotic therapy had statistically significant efficacy in inducing remission rate in patients with UC, observed at the end of trials (random-effect RR = 0.77; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.60 to 0.98, p = .03) or at 12 months after trials (fixed-effect RR = 0.83; 95% CI 0.73 to 0.94, p = .003). CONCLUSIONS: Antibiotic therapy appeared to induce remission more effectively than a placebo or no antibiotic intervention not only in the short-term but also in the long-term for patients with UC. More high-quality clinical trials are needed before clinical recommendations for antibiotic therapy in UC management are made.

Analysis of Factors Influencing Insomnia and Construction of a Prediction Model: A Cross-sectional Survey on Rescuers.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the factors influencing insomnia and construct early insomnia warning tools for rescuers to informbest practices for early screening and intervention. METHODS: Cluster sampling was used to conduct a cross-sectional survey of 1,133 rescuers from one unit in Beijing, China. Logistic regression modeling and R software were used to analyze insomnia-related factors and construct a PRISM model, respectively. RESULTS: The positive rate of insomnia among rescuers was 2.74%. Accounting for participants' age, education, systolic pressure, smoking, per capita family monthly income, psychological resilience, and cognitive emotion regulation, logistic regression analysis revealed that, compared with families with an average monthly income less than 3,000 yuan, the odds ratio ( OR) values and the [95% confidence interval ( CI)] for participants of the following categories were as follows: average monthly family income greater than 5,000 yuan: 2.998 (1.307-6.879), smoking: 4.124 (1.954-8.706), and psychological resilience: 0.960 (0.933-0.988). The ROC curve area of the PRISM model (AUC) = 0.7650, specificity = 0.7169, and sensitivity = 0.7419. CONCLUSION: Insomnia was related to the participants' per capita family monthly income, smoking habits, and psychological resilience on rescue workers. The PRISM model's good diagnostic value advises its use to screen rescuer early sleep quality. Further, advisable interventions to optimize sleep quality and battle effectiveness include psychological resilience training and smoking cessation.

Optimal Timing of Surgical Revascularization for Myocardial Infarction and Left Ventricular Dysfunction.

BACKGROUND: The optimal timing of surgical revascularization for patients presenting with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and impaired left ventricular function is not well established. This study aimed to examine the timing of surgical revascularization after STEMI in patients with ischemic heart disease and left ventricular dysfunction (LVD) by comparing early and late results. METHODS: From January 2003 to December 2013, there were 2276 patients undergoing isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) in our institution. Two hundred and sixty-four (223 male, 41 females) patients with a history of STEMI and LVD were divided into early revascularization (ER, <3 weeks), mid-term revascularization (MR, 3 weeks to 3 months), and late revascularization (LR, >3 months) groups according to the time interval from STEMI to CABG. Mortality and complication rates were compared among the groups by Fisher's exact test. Cox regression analyses were performed to examine the effect of the time interval of surgery on long-term survival. RESULTS: No significant differences in 30-day mortality, long-term survival, freedom from all-cause death, and rehospitalization for heart failure existed among the groups (P > 0.05). More patients in the ER group (12.90%) had low cardiac output syndrome than those in the MR (2.89%) and LR (3.05%) groups (P = 0.035). The mean follow-up times were 46.72 ± 30.65, 48.70 ± 32.74, and 43.75 ± 32.43 months, respectively (P = 0.716). Cox regression analyses showed a severe preoperative condition (odds ratio = 7.13, 95% confidence interval 2.05-24.74, P = 0.002) rather than the time interval of CABG (P > 0.05) after myocardial infarction was a risk factor of long-term survival. CONCLUSIONS: Surgical revascularization for patients with STEMI and LVD can be performed at different times after STEMI with comparable operative mortality and long-term survival. However, ER (<3 weeks) has a higher incidence of postoperative low cardiac output syndrome. A severe preoperative condition rather than the time interval of CABG after STEMI is a risk factor of long-term survival.

The cutoffs and performance of glycated hemoglobin for diagnosing diabetes and prediabetes in a young and middle-aged population and in an elderly population.

The aims were to compare the appropriate cutoffs of glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) in a population of varying ages and to evaluate the performance of HbA1c for diagnosing diabetes and prediabetes. A total of 1064 participants in the young and middle-aged group and 1671 in the elderly group were included and underwent HbA1c testing and an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT). Sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were calculated to evaluate the optimal HbA1c cutoffs. Kappa coefficients were used to test for agreement between HbA1c categorization and OGTT-based diagnoses. The optimal HbA1c cutoffs for diagnosing diabetes were 5.7% (39 mmol/mol) in the young and middle-aged group with a sensitivity of 66.7%, specificity of 86.7%, and AUC of 0.821 (95% CI: 0.686, 0.955) and 5.9% (41 mmol/mol) in the elderly group with a sensitivity of 80.4%, specificity of 73.3%, and AUC of 0.831 (0.801, 0.861). The optimal cutoffs for diagnosing prediabetes were 5.6% (38 mmol/mol) and 5.7% (39 mmol/mol) in the young and middle-aged group and in the elderly group, respectively. Agreement between the OGTT-based diagnosis of diabetes or prediabetes and the optimal HbA1c cutoff was low (all kappa coefficients <0.4). The combination of HbA1c and fasting plasma glucose increased diagnostic sensitivities or specificities. In conclusion, age-specific HbA1c cutoffs for diagnosing diabetes or prediabetes were appropriate. Furthermore, the performance of HbA1c for diagnosing diabetes and prediabetes was poor. HbA1c should be used in combination with traditional glucose criteria when detecting and diagnosing diabetes or prediabetes.

[Application of intraoperative magnetic resonance imaging and multimodal navigation in surgical resection of glioblastoma].

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the efficacy of intraoperative magnetic resonance imaging (iMRI) and multimodal navigation in surgical resection of glioblastoma. METHODS: Between February 2009 and July 2010, 76 glioblastoma patients underwent surgical resection guided by iMRI and multimodal navigation. The cohort consisted of 43 male and 33 female patients, with a mean age of 49 years (range: 14-79 years). Rates of gross total resection (GTR) and extent of resection (EoR) were calculated at first and final iMRI scans.Pearson χ(2) test was used to compare the rates of GTR. RESULTS: iMRI and multimodal navigation were successfully implemented in all cases. Rates of GTR were misestimated by neurosurgeons in 24 cases (31.6%), which were confirmed by first iMRI. Total tumor resection were achieved in 20 cases (26.3%) as a result of iMRI scan, increasing the rates of gross total resection from 52.6% to 78.9% (χ(2) = 11.692, P = 0.001). Extent of resection in 28 patients who underwent further tumor resection were increased from 81.5% to 98.1%, leading to the overall extent of resection improved from 92.3% to 98.4%. At 3-month follow-up, 3 cases (3.9%) developed permanent neurologic deficits. The mean clinical follow-up was 15.6 months (range 3.0-45.0 months). The 2-year overall survival rate was 19.7%. The median progression-free survival of gross total resection group was 12 months (95% CI: 10.1-13.9 months), compared with 9 months (95%CI: 7.9-10.1 months) of the subtotal resection group (χ(2) = 4.756, P = 0.029). The overall survival of gross total resection group was 16 months (95% CI: 13.7-18.3 months), compared with 12 months (95% CI: 9.7-14.3 months) of the subtotal resection group (χ(2) = 7.885, P = 0.005). CONCLUSION: Combined with multimodal navigation, iMRI helps maximize surgical resection of glioblastoma, preserving neurological function while increasing progression-free survival and overall survival.

Prevalence and risk factors for eye diseases, blindness, and low vision in Lhasa, Tibet.

AIM: To determine the prevalence and risk factors for eye diseases, blindness, and low vision in Tibet, and to assist the development of eye disease prevention and treatment schemes. METHODS: We carried out a survey of eye diseases among a population living at high altitude. A total of 1 115 Tibetan permanent residents aged 40 years or older from the towns and villages of Qushui County, Lhasa Prefecture, Tibet Autonomous Region, participated in this study. All participants completed a detailed questionnaire, and underwent presenting and pinhole visual acuity tests, and a comprehensive ophthalmic examination. RESULTS: There were 187 blind eyes (8.43%), 231 eyes with low vision (10.41%). The leading cause of visual impairment was cataract of 55.0% (101/187) blindness and of 50.2% (116/231) low vision, followed by fundus lesions of 22.9% blindness and 23.8% low vision, while only a low prevalence of glaucoma of 9.6% blindness and 1.7% low vision was observed. The analysis of 2 219 eyes showed that the most common external eye disease was pterygium (27.2%) in Tibet. CONCLUSION: The high prevalence of blindness and low vision in the Tibetan population at high altitude is a serious public health issue. There is a need to establish and maintain an appropriate effective eye care program in Tibet.

[A cross-sectional survey of crab intolerance positive rate and its determinants in healthy medical examination population in Beijing].

OBJECTIVE: To explore the positive rate of crab intolerance and its related factors in a healthy physical examination population in Beijing, China. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was carried out from August 1, 2008 to July 30, 2009. It recruited a total of 12 765 adults with crab intolerance at Health Sciences Center, Chinese PLA General Hospital. The epidemiological data were entered into computer by two persons and organized by Epidata3.0. Non-conditional Logistic regression model was used to calculate the values of odd ratio (OR) and 95%CI. Statistic analysis was performed by SPSS 13.0. RESULTS: The incidence rate of crab intolerance was 24.5% (3128/12 765) and increased with age. Grades of crab intolerance were associated with age and gender and there was a linear correlation tendency (P < 0.05). Incidence rate of crab intolerance in females (27.5%, 1077/3912) was higher than that of males (23.2%, 2051/8853). Multiple regression analysis showed that crab intolerance was correlated with age, gender, body mass index and helicobacter infections(all P < 0.05). In comparison with age group < 40 years old, the values of OR (95%CI) of age groups 41 - 50, 51 - 60 and > 60 years old were 1.224 (1.095 - 1.368), 1.616 (1.431 - 1.827) and 2.177 (1.799 - 2.634) respectively. In comparison with males, the OR (95%CI) of females was 1.286 (1.174 - 1.408). The OR (95%CI) of Helicobacter pylori infections was 1.303(1.201 - 1.413). In comparison with normal weighters, the OR (95%CI) of obese subjects was 1.154 (1.026 - 1.298). CONCLUSIONS: Crab intolerance may be correlated with age, gender, Helicobacter pylori infections and body mass index. Health education should be targeted at its characteristics.

[A cross sectional survey on the relationship between intolerance to eggs and body mass index in Beijing, China].

OBJECTIVE: To explore the prevalence of intolerance to eggs and its relationship with body mass index in Beijing, China. METHODS: A cross sectional survey which included 12 766 adults from health sciences center of general hospital of the Chinese People's Liberation Army from August, 2008 to July, 2009 was carried out. Data was entered computer and organized by EpiData 3.0 software for epidemiological analysis. Nonconditional logistic regression model was used for odd ratio (OR) and 95%CI calculation, and statistics analysis was carried out by SPSS 13.0 software. RESULTS: Positive rate of intolerance to eggs in the cohort was 28.5%. Grades of intolerance to eggs were associated with sex (P < 0.05). Positive rate of intolerance to eggs in females (36.5%) was higher than those in males (24.9%). Data from multiple regression analysis showed that intolerance to eggs was associated with sex and body mass index. Compared with males, the OR (95%CI) of female was 1.732 (1.590 - 1.887). Compared with normal weights, the OR (95%CI) of low weights was 1.443 (1.018 - 2.045). CONCLUSION: Sex and body mass index mignt be associated with intolerance to eggs.

[A cross sectional survey on the prevalence of food intolerance and its determinants in Beijing, China].

OBJECTIVE: To study the prevalence of food intolerance among attendants in a general hospital and to learn its related determinants in Beijing, China. METHODS: An cross sectional survey, from August 1st, 2008 to June 30th, 2009, was carried out, including 12 766 adults from Health Sciences Center, Chinese PLA General Hospital. Data for epidemiological analysis were entered (double entry) into computer and organized by EpiData 3.0. Non-conditional logistic regression model was used for odd ratio (OR) and 95%CI calculation, with statistic analysis through SPSS 13.0. RESULTS: The three leading intolerance food items were egg, crab and milk, and the prevalence rates were 28.5%, 24.5% and 24.5% respectively. Prevalence of food intolerance increased along with aging. Levels and the kinds of food intolerance were associated with age, sex and appeared a linear correlation tendency (P < 0.05). Prevalence of food intolerance in females (67.3%) was higher than that in males (56.2%). Data from multiple regression analysis showed that, comparing with age group under 40 and 40 years, the OR (95%CI) of age group 41 - 50, 51 - 60, and above 60 were 1.125 (1.027 - 1.233), 1.307 (1.176 - 1.452) and 1.536 (1.275 - 1.849) respectively. Compared to males, the OR (95%CI) of females was 1.602 (1.475 - 1.741). When compared with normal weights, the OR (95%CI) of people with low weight was 1.772 (1.207 - 2.602). CONCLUSION: Food intolerance was associated with age, sex and body mass index. Health education should be carried out according to the related characteristics of age and sex. Suggesting that reducing the risk of food intolerance, keeping the suitable weight was necessary.

[Study design and the preliminary results on the modes of smoking cessation in general hospitals].

To study the intervention programs on smoking cessation in a general hospital and to evaluate its effects of the programs. Four methods including: a) the intervention through specialists in the smoking cessation clinic, b) short-time intervention in the out-patient department, c) free medical intervention, d) group intervention, were adopted for different smokers, with health counseling, psychological intervention and drug treatment. Intervention effect was evaluated by standard methods. During the 20-month period of the project, we treated 690 cases and 402 completed 6-month follow-up. Preliminary results in 402 cases showed that the three methods of smoking cessation interventions could reduce the amount of cigarette smoking and increase the quitting rate. Motivation to quit smoking, intervention methods and intensity of intervention seemed the main factors. The quit rate of 6-month follow-up in the 'specialist intervention' in the smoking cessation clinic (31.6%) and in the group intervention (30.9%) was higher than short-time intervention in free medical events (15.1%). The successful rate of smoking cessation depended on the motivation of quitters, and the attitude, methods and intervention skills of the physicians. Therefore, it is necessary to explore and develop smoking cessation service models suitable to national context and individual intervention methods in China.

[An 18-year follow-up study on the risk factors of deaths regarding chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Xi'an, China].

OBJECTIVE: To examine risk factors of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) deaths in Chinese military elderly men. METHODS: A cohort analytic study was carried out in Xi'an, China. A total of 1268 retired military males aged 55 or older were examined in 1987 and followed for 18 years. Main outcome measures were all causes and COPD deaths. RESULTS: The total person-years of follow-up from 1987 until June 2005 was 18 766.28. The mean follow-up time was 14.35 years; A total of 491 had died, with 748 alive and 29 lost of follow-up. COPD was the second cause of death in all deaths (16.90%). Results Univariate analysis of Cox model showed that age, number of smoking cigarettes per day, duration of smoking, negative affairs and existing COPD were risk factors of COPD deaths and the relative risks [95% confidence intervals (CI)] were 1.13 (1.09-1.17), 1.04 (1.02-1.06), 1.03 (1.01-1.04), 1.81 (2.85-6.77) and 4.39 (2.85-6.77) respectively. Data from Multivariate analysis of Cox model showed that age, number of smoking cigarettes per day and existing COPD were risk factors of COPD death with relative risks [95% confidence intervals (CI)] as 1.10 (1.06-1.15), 1.03 (1.01-1.06) and 3.07 (1.90-4.98) respectively. The risks for deaths increased significantly with increasing amount and duration of smoking resulting from all causes and COPD. Compared with current smokers, former smokers had lower risks of total mortality(excess risk reduction of 66.67%). CONCLUSION: COPD was the second cause among all deaths in this cohort. Age, number of smoking cigarettes per day and existing COPD were the risk factors of COPD deaths which called for further survey to examine the relationship between quitting smoking and COPD deaths in this cohort.

[The use of unsupervised classification of Landsat-5 TM images in analysing the types of vegetation in the areas of "breaking dikes or opening sluice for water store"].

OBJECTIVE: To clarify the change of vegetation types and its relationship between the density of alive-snails in the areas of "breaking dikes or opening sluice for water store" in Jicheng. METHODS: Synthesized false color images of Jicheng before and after 1998 (1994 and 2003) were classified without supervision and results were compared. Vegetation types were identified on the spot. RESULTS: Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) of snail habitats before 1998 were between 126 and 183 in Jicheng, whose vegetation types were mainly paddy, cotton and cabbage. NDVI of snail habitats in Jicheng after 1998 were between 152 and 193 whose vegetation types were mainly poplar forest, bulrush and grass. Areas of snail habitats increased from 64.64% to 66.47%. Snail habitats were mostly composed of mixed vegetation types and mono-typed vegetation was hardly found. According to the density of alive-snails orders from high to low were poplar forest and bulrush, poplar forest and grass, bulrush. CONCLUSION: Vegetation types would not be identified by unsupervised classification only. Poplar forest, bulrush and grass were closedly related to the density of alive-snails.

[Application of "time series analysis" in the prediction of schistosomiasis prevalence in areas of "breaking dikes or opening sluice for waterstore" in Dongting Lake areas, China].

OBJECTIVE: To provide the fittest model for forecasting schistosomiasis prevalence in Haokou village of "breaking dikes or opening sluice for waterstore" in Dongting Lake areas by comparing the results of Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, Autoregressive Model and Autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA model) from 1990 to 2002. METHODS: Error sum of square of four statistical methods was compared and the fittest model was chosen. RESULTS: Error sum of square of predicted schistosomiasis prevalence rates in Haokou village from 1994 to 2002 were 39.40, 39.86, 26.63, 22.54 respectively. CONCLUSION: ARIMA model seemed to be the fittest one in the prediction of schistosomiasis prevalence in Haokou village of "breaking dikes or opening sluice for waterstore" in Dongting Lake from 1990 to 2002.