Rapid reduction of malaria transmission following the introduction of indoor residual spraying in previously unsprayed districts: an observational analysis of Mopti Region, Mali, in 2017.

BACKGROUND: The National Malaria Control Programme (NMCP) of Mali has had recent success decreasing malaria transmission using 3rd generation indoor residual spraying (IRS) products in areas with pyrethroid resistance, primarily in Ségou and Koulikoro Regions. In 2015, national survey data showed that Mopti Region had the highest under 5-year-old (u5) malaria prevalence at 54%-nearly twice the national average-despite having high access to long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC). Accordingly, in 2016 the NMCP and other stakeholders shifted IRS activities from Ségou to Mopti. Here, the results of a series of observational analyses utilizing routine malaria indicators to evaluate the impact of this switch are presented. METHODS: A set of retrospective, eco-observational time-series analyses were performed using monthly incidence rates of rapid diagnostic test (RDT)-confirmed malaria cases reported in the District Health Information System 2 (DHIS2) from January 2016 until February 2018. Comparisons of case incidence rates were made between health facility catchments from the same region that differed in IRS status (IRS vs. no-IRS) to describe the general impact of the 2016 and 2017 IRS campaigns, and a difference-in-differences approach comparing changes in incidence from year-to-year was used to describe the effect of suspending IRS operations in Ségou and introducing IRS operations in Mopti in 2017. RESULTS: Compared to communities with no IRS, cumulative case incidence rates in IRS communities were reduced 16% in Ségou Region during the 6 months following the 2016 campaign and 31% in Mopti Region during the 6 months following the 2017 campaign, likely averting a total of more than 22,000 cases of malaria that otherwise would have been expected during peak transmission months. Across all comparator health facilities (HFs) where there was no IRS in either year, peak malaria case incidence rates fell by an average of 22% (CI95 18-30%) from 2016 to 2017. At HFs in communities of Mopti where IRS was introduced in 2017, peak incidence fell by an average of 42% (CI95 31-63%) between these years, a significantly greater decrease (p = 0.040) almost double what was seen in the comparator HFCAs. The opposite effect was observed in Ségou Region, where peak incidence at those HFs where IRS was withdrawn after the 2016 campaign increased by an average of 106% (CI95 63-150%) from year to year, also a significant difference-in-differences compared to the comparator no-IRS HFs (p < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: Annual IRS campaigns continue to make dramatic contributions to the seasonal reduction of malaria transmission in communities across central Mali, where IRS campaigns were timed in advance of peak seasonal transmission and utilized a micro-encapsulated product with an active ingredient that was of a different class than the one found on the LLINs used throughout the region and to which local malaria vectors were shown to be susceptible. Strategies to help mitigate the resurgence of malaria cases that can be expected should be prioritized whenever the suspension of IRS activities in a particular region is considered.

Combining next-generation indoor residual spraying and drug-based malaria control strategies: observational evidence of a combined effect in Mali.

BACKGROUND: Ségou Region in central Mali is an area of high malaria burden with seasonal transmission. The region reports high access to and use of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs), though the principal vector, Anopheles gambiae, is resistant to pyrethroids. From 2011 until 2016, several high-burden districts of Ségou also received indoor residual spraying (IRS), though in 2014 concerns about pyrethroid resistance prompted a shift in IRS products to a micro-encapsulated formulation of the organophosphate insecticide pirimiphos-methyl. Also in 2014, the region expanded a pilot programme to provide seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) to children aged 3-59 months in two districts. The timing of these decisions presented an opportunity to estimate the impact of both interventions, deployed individually and in combination, using quality-assured passive surveillance data. METHODS: A non-randomized, quasi-experimental time series approach was used to analyse monthly trends in malaria case incidence at the district level. Districts were stratified by intervention status: an SMC district, an IRS district, an IRS + SMC district, and control districts that received neither IRS nor SMC in 2014. The numbers of positive rapid diagnostic test (RDT +) results reported at community health facilities were aggregated and epidemiological curves showing the incidence of RDT-confirmed malaria cases per 10,000 person-months were plotted for the total all-ages and for the under 5 year old (u5) population. The cumulative incidence of RDT + malaria cases observed from September 2014 to February 2015 was calculated in each intervention district and compared to the cumulative incidence reported from the same period in the control districts. RESULTS: Cumulative peak-transmission all-ages incidence was lower in each of the intervention districts compared to the control districts: 16% lower in the SMC district; 28% lower in the IRS district; and 39% lower in the IRS + SMC district. The same trends were observed in the u5 population: incidence was 15% lower with SMC, 48% lower with IRS, and 53% lower with IRS + SMC. The SMC-only intervention had a more moderate effect on incidence reduction initially, which increased over time. The IRS-only intervention had a rapid, comparatively large impact initially that waned over time. The impact of the combined interventions was both rapid and longer lasting. CONCLUSION: Evaluating the impact of IRS with an organophosphate and SMC on reducing incidence rates of passive RDT-confirmed malaria cases in Ségou Region in 2014 suggests that combining the interventions had a greater effect than either intervention used individually in this high-burden region of central Mali with pyrethroid-resistant vectors and high rates of household access to LLINs.

An observational analysis of the impact of indoor residual spraying in Northern, Upper East, and Upper West Regions of Ghana: 2014 through 2017.

BACKGROUND: Ghana has been implementing the indoor residual spraying (IRS) of insecticides since 2006, focusing operations in the north. Insecticide resistance concerns prompted a switch from pyrethroids to organophosphates, beginning gradually in 2011 and switching fully to the micro-encapsulated formulation of pirimiphosmethyl (PM CS), Actellic® 300CS, a third-generation indoor residual spraying (3GIRS) product, by 2014. Entomological surveillance studies have shown IRS to be a highly effective malaria control tool, but epidemiological evidence is needed as well. Countrywide prevalence surveys have shown that malaria parasite prevalence in children under 5 years of age in Northern, Upper East, and Upper West Regions had declined to less than 40% in each region by 2016. Similarly, malaria deaths in children under 5 years of age have also been declining nationally since 2009. Although IRS is suspected to have contributed to this decline, stronger evidence is needed to link the IRS interventions to the epidemiological impact. METHODS: To assess the epidemiological impact of Ghana's IRS programmatic activities, a retrospective, observational analysis using routine epidemiological data was conducted to compare malaria incidence rates from IRS and non-IRS districts in Northern, Upper East, and Upper West Regions. Routine epidemiological data consisted of passive malaria case surveillance data reported in the District Health Information System 2 (DHIS2); with cases representing patients with suspected malaria who had sought care in the public health system and had received a confirmatory diagnosis with a positive malaria RDT result. Final routine data were extracted in September 2018. All districts that had received IRS were included in the analysis and compared to all non-IRS districts within the same region. In the Northern Region, only PMI districts were included in the analysis, as they had similar historical data. RESULTS: District-level analysis from Northern Region from 2015 to 2017 of the aggregate malaria incidence reported from IRS districts relative to non-IRS comparator districts showed 39%, 26%, and 58% fewer confirmed malaria cases reported from IRS districts in 2015, 2016, and 2017, respectively. This translates to approximately 257,000 fewer cases than expected over the three years. In Upper East Region, the effect on reported malaria cases of withdrawing IRS from the region was striking; after spray operations were suspended in 2015, incidence increased an average of 485% per district (95% confidence interval: 330% to 640%) compared to 2014. CONCLUSIONS: The current observational analysis results are in line with the entomological studies in demonstrating the positive contribution of IRS with a 3GIRS product to malaria control programmes in northern Ghana and the value of using routine surveillance and implementation data to rapidly assess the impact of vector control interventions in operational settings, even in complex implementation environments.

An observational analysis of the impact of indoor residual spraying with non-pyrethroid insecticides on the incidence of malaria in Ségou Region, Mali: 2012-2015.

BACKGROUND: Ségou Region in Central Mali is an area of high malaria burden with seasonal transmission, high access to and use of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs), and resistance to pyrethroids and DDT well documented in Anopheles gambiae s.l. (the principal vector of malaria in Mali). Ségou has recently received indoor residual spraying (IRS) supported by Mali's collaboration with the US President's Malaria Initiative/Africa Indoor Residual Spraying programme. From 2012 to 2015, two different non-pyrethroid insecticides: bendiocarb in 2012 and 2013 and pirimiphos-methyl in 2014 and 2015, were used for IRS in two districts. This report summarizes the results of observational analyses carried out to assess the impact of these IRS campaigns on malaria incidence rates reported through local and district health systems before and after spraying. METHODS: A series of retrospective time series analyses were performed on 1,382,202 rapid diagnostic test-confirmed cases of malaria reported by district routine health systems in Ségou Region from January 2012 to January 2016. Malaria testing, treatment, surveillance and reporting activities remained consistent across districts and years during the study period, as did LLIN access and use estimates as well as An. gambiae s.l. insecticide resistance patterns. Districts were stratified by IRS implementation status and all-age monthly incidence rates were calculated and compared across strata from 2012 to 2014. In 2015 a regional but variable scale-up of seasonal malaria chemoprevention complicated the region-wide analysis; however IRS operations were suspended in Bla District that year so a difference in differences approach was used to compare 2014 to 2015 changes in malaria incidence at the health facility level in children under 5-years-old from Bla relative to changes observed in Barouéli, where IRS operations were consistent. RESULTS: During 2012-2014, rapid reductions in malaria incidence were observed during the 6 months following each IRS campaign, though most of the reduction in cases (70% of the total) was concentrated in the first 2 months after each campaign was completed. Compared to non-IRS districts, in which normal seasonal patterns of malaria incidence were observed, an estimated 286,745 total fewer cases of all-age malaria were observed in IRS districts. The total cost of IRS in Ségou was around 9.68 million USD, or roughly 33.75 USD per case averted. Further analysis suggests that the timing of the 2012-2014 IRS campaigns (spraying in July and August) was well positioned to maximize public health impact. Suspension of IRS in Bla District after the 2014 campaign resulted in a 70% increase in under-5-years-old malaria incidence rates from 2014 to 2015, significantly greater (p = 0.0003) than the change reported from Barouéli District, where incidence rates remained the same. CONCLUSIONS: From 2012 to 2015, the annual IRS campaigns in Ségou are associated with several hundred thousand fewer cases of malaria. This work supports the growing evidence that shows that IRS with non-pyrethroid insecticides is a wise public health investment in areas with documented pyrethroid resistance, high rates of LLIN coverage, and where house structures and population densities are appropriate. Additionally, this work highlights the utility of quality-assured and validated routine surveillance and well defined observational analyses to rapidly assess the impact of malaria control interventions in operational settings, helping to empower evidence-based decision making and to further grow the evidence base needed to better understand when and where to utilize new vector control tools as they become available.