An explainable machine learning approach for hospital emergency department visits forecasting using continuous training and multi-model regression.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: In the last years, the Emergency Department (ED) has become an important source of admissions for hospitals. Since late 90s, the number of ED visits has been steadily increasing, and since Covid19 pandemic this trend has been much stronger. Accurate prediction of ED visits, even for moderate forecasting time-horizons, can definitively improve operational efficiency, quality of care, and patient outcomes in hospitals. METHODS: In this paper we propose two different interpretable approaches, based on Machine Learning algorithms, to accurately forecast hospital emergency visits. The proposed approaches involve a first step of data segmentation based on two different criteria, depending on the approach considered: first, a threshold-based strategy is adopted, where data is divided depending on the value of specific predictor variables. In a second approach, a cluster-based ensemble learning is proposed, in such a way that a clustering algorithm is applied to the training dataset, and ML models are then trained for each cluster. RESULTS: The two proposed methodologies have been evaluated in real data from two hospital ED visits datasets in Spain. We have shown that the proposed approaches are able to obtain accurate ED visits forecasting, in short-term and also long-term prediction time-horizons up to one week, improving the efficiency of alternative prediction methods for this problem. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed forecasting approaches have a strong emphasis on providing explainability to the problem. An analysis on which variables govern the problem and are pivotal for obtaining accurate predictions is finally carried out and included in the discussion of the paper.

Multi-task learning for the prediction of wind power ramp events with deep neural networks.

In Machine Learning, the most common way to address a given problem is to optimize an error measure by training a single model to solve the desired task. However, sometimes it is possible to exploit latent information from other related tasks to improve the performance of the main one, resulting in a learning paradigm known as Multi-Task Learning (MTL). In this context, the high computational capacity of deep neural networks (DNN) can be combined with the improved generalization performance of MTL, by designing independent output layers for every task and including a shared representation for them. In this paper we exploit this theoretical framework on a problem related to Wind Power Ramps Events (WPREs) prediction in wind farms. Wind energy is one of the fastest growing industries in the world, with potential global spreading and deep penetration in developed and developing countries. One of the main issues with the majority of renewable energy resources is their intrinsic intermittency, which makes it difficult to increase the penetration of these technologies into the energetic mix. In this case, we focus on the specific problem of WPREs prediction, which deeply affect the wind speed and power prediction, and they are also related to different turbines damages. Specifically, we exploit the fact that WPREs are spatially-related events, in such a way that predicting the occurrence of WPREs in different wind farms can be taken as related tasks, even when the wind farms are far away from each other. We propose a DNN-MTL architecture, receiving inputs from all the wind farms at the same time to predict WPREs simultaneously in each of the farms locations. The architecture includes some shared layers to learn a common representation for the information from all the wind farms, and it also includes some specification layers, which refine the representation to match the specific characteristics of each location. Finally we modified the Adam optimization algorithm for dealing with imbalanced data, adding costs which are updated dynamically depending on the worst classified class. We compare the proposal against a baseline approach based on building three different independent models (one for each wind farm considered), and against a state-of-the-art reservoir computing approach. The DNN-MTL proposal achieves very good performance in WPREs prediction, obtaining a good balance for all the classes included in the problem (negative ramp, no ramp and positive ramp).

The coral reefs optimization algorithm: a novel metaheuristic for efficiently solving optimization problems.

This paper presents a novel bioinspired algorithm to tackle complex optimization problems: the coral reefs optimization (CRO) algorithm. The CRO algorithm artificially simulates a coral reef, where different corals (namely, solutions to the optimization problem considered) grow and reproduce in coral colonies, fighting by choking out other corals for space in the reef. This fight for space, along with the specific characteristics of the corals' reproduction, produces a robust metaheuristic algorithm shown to be powerful for solving hard optimization problems. In this research the CRO algorithm is tested in several continuous and discrete benchmark problems, as well as in practical application scenarios (i.e., optimum mobile network deployment and off-shore wind farm design). The obtained results confirm the excellent performance of the proposed algorithm and open line of research for further application of the algorithm to real-world problems.

An island grouping genetic algorithm for fuzzy partitioning problems.

This paper presents a novel fuzzy clustering technique based on grouping genetic algorithms (GGAs), which are a class of evolutionary algorithms especially modified to tackle grouping problems. Our approach hinges on a GGA devised for fuzzy clustering by means of a novel encoding of individuals (containing elements and clusters sections), a new fitness function (a superior modification of the Davies Bouldin index), specially tailored crossover and mutation operators, and the use of a scheme based on a local search and a parallelization process, inspired from an island-based model of evolution. The overall performance of our approach has been assessed over a number of synthetic and real fuzzy clustering problems with different objective functions and distance measures, from which it is concluded that the proposed approach shows excellent performance in all cases.