Exposure risk analysis of COVID-19 for a ride-sharing motorbike taxi.

A dominant mode of transmission for the respiratory disease COVID-19 is via airborne virus-carrying aerosols. As national lockdowns are lifted and people begin to travel once again, an assessment of the risk associated with different forms of public transportation is required. This paper assesses the risk of transmission in the context of a ride-sharing motorbike taxi-a popular choice of paratransit in South and South-East Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. Fluid dynamics plays a significant role in understanding the fate of droplets ejected from a susceptible individual during a respiratory event, such as coughing. Numerical simulations are employed here using an Eulerian-Lagrangian approach for particles and the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes method for the background air flow. The driver is assumed to be exhaling virus laden droplets, which are transported toward the passenger by the background flow. A single cough is simulated for particle sizes 1, 10, 50 µ m , with motorbike speeds 1 , 5 , 15 m / s . It has been shown that small and large particles pose different types of risk. Depending on the motorbike speed, large particles may deposit onto the passenger, while smaller particles travel between the riders and may be inhaled by the passenger. To reduce risk of transmission to the passenger, a shield is placed between the riders. The shield not only acts as a barrier to block particles, but also alters the flow field around the riders, pushing particles away from the passenger. The findings of this paper therefore support the addition of a shield potentially making the journey safer.

Projections of on-farm salinity in coastal Bangladesh.

This paper quantifies the expected impacts of climate change, climate variability and salinity accumulation on food production in coastal Bangladesh during the dry season. This forms part of a concerted series of actions on agriculture and salinity in Bangladesh under the UK funded Ecosystems for Poverty Alleviation programme and the British Council INSPIRE scheme. The work was undertaken by developing simulation models for soil water balances, dry season irrigation requirements and the effectiveness of the monsoon season rainfall at leaching accumulated salts. Simulations were run from 1981 to 2098 using historical climate data and a daily climate data set based on the Met Office Hadley Centre HadRM3P regional climate model. Results show that inter-seasonal and inter-annual variability are key factors that affect the viability of dry season vegetable crop growing. By the end of the 21(st) century the dry season is expected to be 2-3 weeks longer than now (2014). Monsoon rainfall amounts will remain the same or possibly slightly increase but it will occur over a slightly shorter wet season. Expectations of sea level rise and additional saline intrusion into groundwater aquifers mean that dry season irrigation water is likely to become more saline by the end of the 21(st) century. A study carried out at Barisal indicates that irrigating with water at up to 4 ppt can be sustainable. Once the dry season irrigation water quality goes above 5 ppt, the monsoon rainfall is no longer able to leach the dry season salt deposits so salt accumulation becomes significant and farm productivity will reduce by as a much as 50%, threatening the livelihoods of farmers in this region.

Impacts of climate change and socio-economic scenarios on flow and water quality of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna (GBM) river systems: low flow and flood statistics.

The potential impacts of climate change and socio-economic change on flow and water quality in rivers worldwide is a key area of interest. The Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) is one of the largest river basins in the world serving a population of over 650 million, and is of vital concern to India and Bangladesh as it provides fresh water for people, agriculture, industry, conservation and for the delta system downstream. This paper seeks to assess future changes in flow and water quality utilising a modelling approach as a means of assessment in a very complex system. The INCA-N model has been applied to the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna river systems to simulate flow and water quality along the rivers under a range of future climate conditions. Three model realisations of the Met Office Hadley Centre global and regional climate models were selected from 17 perturbed model runs to evaluate a range of potential futures in climate. In addition, the models have also been evaluated using socio-economic scenarios, comprising (1) a business as usual future, (2) a more sustainable future, and (3) a less sustainable future. Model results for the 2050s and the 2090s indicate a significant increase in monsoon flows under the future climates, with enhanced flood potential. Low flows are predicted to fall with extended drought periods, which could have impacts on water and sediment supply, irrigated agriculture and saline intrusion. In contrast, the socio-economic changes had relatively little impact on flows, except under the low flow regimes where increased irrigation could further reduce water availability. However, should large scale water transfers upstream of Bangladesh be constructed, these have the potential to reduce flows and divert water away from the delta region depending on the volume and timing of the transfers. This could have significant implications for the delta in terms of saline intrusion, water supply, agriculture and maintaining crucial ecosystems such as the mangrove forests, with serious implications for people's livelihoods in the area. The socio-economic scenarios have a significant impact on water quality, altering nutrient fluxes being transported into the delta region.

Molecular characterization, polymorphism and association study of lysozyme gene with milk production and somatic cell trait in Bos indicus × Bos taurus cattle.

Lysozyme, an anti-bacterial enzyme, is mostly found in the body fluids, various tissues and secretions of animals and humans, and confers immunity against a wide range of bacterial species. The present study was carried out to elucidate the gene sequence of this enzyme in Indian Sahiwal × Holstein Friesian crossbred cattle and to explore the polymorphism of the gene as well as their association with milk production and somatic cell traits. The total length of lysozyme cDNA was found to be of 447 bp. The similarity with Bos taurus, human, pig, monkey, gorilla, mice, rat, chicken, dog and sheep was estimated as 99.1%, 85%, 81.0%, 85.2%, 84.3%, 77.9%, 77.9%, 41.4%, 40.5% and 24.6%, respectively. Polymorphism study of two fragments, extended exon1 including promoter, exon1 and partial intron1 (268 bp), and extended exon2 including partial intron1 and 2, and exon2 region (287 bp) of milk lysozyme gene was carried out by employing single-stranded conformation polymorphism (SSCP). In the extended exon1 fragment, three alleles namely A, B and C with frequencies of 0.59, 0.28 and 0.12 were observed while in the exon extended fragment, three different alleles - P, Q and R with respective frequencies of 0.61, 0.38 and 0.01 - were determined in Indian Sahiwal × Holstein Friesian cross. A total of eight haplotypes were found in this population where the most predominant one was h1 (0.52). Genotypes of exon1 extended fragment showed significant association with total milk yield, daily milk yield, peak yield and somatic cell score at P < 0.05 while that of exon2 extended fragment had significant correlation with only total lactational milk yield. Haplotype combinations also revealed significant association with total milk production where h1h1 homozygous showed highest yield during first lactation.