Hyperedge prediction and the statistical mechanisms of higher-order and lower-order interactions in complex networks.

Complex networked systems often exhibit higher-order interactions, beyond dyadic interactions, which can dramatically alter their observed behavior. Consequently, understanding hypergraphs from a structural perspective has become increasingly important. Statistical, group-based inference approaches are well suited for unveiling the underlying community structure and predicting unobserved interactions. However, these approaches often rely on two key assumptions: that the same groups can explain hyperedges of any order and that interactions are assortative, meaning that edges are formed by nodes with the same group memberships. To test these assumptions, we propose a group-based generative model for hypergraphs that does not impose an assortative mechanism to explain observed higher-order interactions, unlike current approaches. Our model allows us to explore the validity of the assumptions. Our results indicate that the first assumption appears to hold true for real networks. However, the second assumption is not necessarily accurate; we find that a combination of general statistical mechanisms can explain observed hyperedges. Finally, with our approach, we are also able to determine the importance of lower and high-order interactions for predicting unobserved interactions. Our research challenges the conventional assumptions of group-based inference methodologies and broadens our understanding of the underlying structure of hypergraphs.

Early-career factors largely determine the future impact of prominent researchers: evidence across eight scientific fields.

Can we help predict the future impact of researchers using early-career factors? We analyze early-career factors of the world's 100 most prominent researchers across 8 scientific fields and identify four key drivers in researchers' initial career: working at a top 25 ranked university, publishing a paper in a top 5 ranked journal, publishing most papers in top quartile (high-impact) journals and co-authoring with other prominent researchers in their field. We find that over 95% of prominent researchers across multiple fields had at least one of these four features in the first 5 years of their career. We find that the most prominent scientists who had an early career advantage in terms of citations and h-index are more likely to have had all four features, and that this advantage persists throughout their career after 10, 15 and 20 years. Our findings show that these few early-career factors help predict researchers' impact later in their careers. Our research thus points to the need to enhance fairness and career mobility among scientists who have not had a jump start early on.

Fundamental limits to learning closed-form mathematical models from data.

Given a finite and noisy dataset generated with a closed-form mathematical model, when is it possible to learn the true generating model from the data alone? This is the question we investigate here. We show that this model-learning problem displays a transition from a low-noise phase in which the true model can be learned, to a phase in which the observation noise is too high for the true model to be learned by any method. Both in the low-noise phase and in the high-noise phase, probabilistic model selection leads to optimal generalization to unseen data. This is in contrast to standard machine learning approaches, including artificial neural networks, which in this particular problem are limited, in the low-noise phase, by their ability to interpolate. In the transition region between the learnable and unlearnable phases, generalization is hard for all approaches including probabilistic model selection.

Bayesian Symbolic Learning to Build Analytical Correlations from Rigorous Process Simulations: Application to CO2 Capture Technologies.

Process modeling has become a fundamental tool to guide experimental work. Unfortunately, process models based on first principles can be expensive to develop and evaluate, and hard to use, particularly when convergence issues arise. This work proves that Bayesian symbolic learning can be applied to derive simple closed-form expressions from rigorous process simulations, streamlining the process modeling task and making process models more accessible to experimental groups. Compared to conventional surrogate models, our approach provides analytical expressions that are easier to communicate and manipulate algebraically to get insights into the process. We apply this method to synthetic data obtained from two basic CO2 capture processes simulated in Aspen HYSYS, identifying accurate simplified interpretable equations for key variables dictating the process economic and environmental performance. We then use these expressions to analyze the process variables' elasticities and benchmark an emerging CO2 capture process against the business as usual technology.

Remission of obesity and insulin resistance is not sufficient to restore mitochondrial homeostasis in visceral adipose tissue.

Metabolic plasticity is the ability of a biological system to adapt its metabolic phenotype to different environmental stressors. We used a whole-body and tissue-specific phenotypic, functional, proteomic, metabolomic and transcriptomic approach to systematically assess metabolic plasticity in diet-induced obese mice after a combined nutritional and exercise intervention. Although most obesity and overnutrition-related pathological features were successfully reverted, we observed a high degree of metabolic dysfunction in visceral white adipose tissue, characterized by abnormal mitochondrial morphology and functionality. Despite two sequential therapeutic interventions and an apparent global healthy phenotype, obesity triggered a cascade of events in visceral adipose tissue progressing from mitochondrial metabolic and proteostatic alterations to widespread cellular stress, which compromises its biosynthetic and recycling capacity. In humans, weight loss after bariatric surgery showed a transcriptional signature in visceral adipose tissue similar to our mouse model of obesity reversion. Overall, our data indicate that obesity prompts a lasting metabolic fingerprint that leads to a progressive breakdown of metabolic plasticity in visceral adipose tissue.

Gene regulatory network inference in long-lived C. elegans reveals modular properties that are predictive of novel aging genes.

We design a "wisdom-of-the-crowds" GRN inference pipeline and couple it to complex network analysis to understand the organizational principles governing gene regulation in long-lived glp-1/Notch Caenorhabditis elegans. The GRN has three layers (input, core, and output) and is topologically equivalent to bow-tie/hourglass structures prevalent among metabolic networks. To assess the functional importance of structural layers, we screened 80% of regulators and discovered 50 new aging genes, 86% with human orthologues. Genes essential for longevity-including ones involved in insulin-like signaling (ILS)-are at the core, indicating that GRN's structure is predictive of functionality. We used in vivo reporters and a novel functional network covering 5,497 genetic interactions to make mechanistic predictions. We used genetic epistasis to test some of these predictions, uncovering a novel transcriptional regulator, sup-37, that works alongside DAF-16/FOXO. We present a framework with predictive power that can accelerate discovery in C. elegans and potentially humans.

Stochastic block models reveal a robust nested pattern in healthy human gut microbiomes.

A key question in human gut microbiome research is what are the robust structural patterns underlying its taxonomic composition. Herein, we use whole metagenomic datasets from healthy human guts to show that such robust patterns do exist, albeit not in the conventional enterotype sense. We first introduce the concept of mixed-membership enterotypes using a network inference approach based on stochastic block models. We find that gut microbiomes across a group of people (hosts) display a nested structure, which has been observed in a number of ecological systems. This finding led us to designate distinct ecological roles to both microbes and hosts: generalists and specialists. Specifically, generalist hosts have microbiomes with most microbial species, while specialist hosts only have generalist microbes. Moreover, specialist microbes are only present in generalist hosts. From the nested structure of microbial taxonomies, we show that these ecological roles of microbes are generally conserved across datasets. Our results show that the taxonomic composition of healthy human gut microbiomes is associated with robustly structured combinations of generalist and specialist species.

Bayesian Machine Scientist to Compare Data Collapses for the Nikuradse Dataset.

Ever since Nikuradse's experiments on turbulent friction in 1933, there have been theoretical attempts to describe his measurements by collapsing the data into single-variable functions. However, this approach, which is common in other areas of physics and in other fields, is limited by the lack of rigorous quantitative methods to compare alternative data collapses. Here, we address this limitation by using an unsupervised method to find analytic functions that optimally describe each of the data collapses for the Nikuradse dataset. By descaling these analytic functions, we show that a low dispersion of the scaled data does not guarantee that a data collapse is a good description of the original data. In fact, we find that, out of all the proposed data collapses, the original one proposed by Prandtl and Nikuradse over 80 years ago provides the best description of the data so far, and that it also agrees well with recent experimental data, provided that some model parameters are allowed to vary across experiments.

A Bayesian machine scientist to aid in the solution of challenging scientific problems.

Closed-form, interpretable mathematical models have been instrumental for advancing our understanding of the world; with the data revolution, we may now be in a position to uncover new such models for many systems from physics to the social sciences. However, to deal with increasing amounts of data, we need "machine scientists" that are able to extract these models automatically from data. Here, we introduce a Bayesian machine scientist, which establishes the plausibility of models using explicit approximations to the exact marginal posterior over models and establishes its prior expectations about models by learning from a large empirical corpus of mathematical expressions. It explores the space of models using Markov chain Monte Carlo. We show that this approach uncovers accurate models for synthetic and real data and provides out-of-sample predictions that are more accurate than those of existing approaches and of other nonparametric methods.

Tensorial and bipartite block models for link prediction in layered networks and temporal networks.

Many real-world complex systems are well represented as multilayer networks; predicting interactions in those systems is one of the most pressing problems in predictive network science. To address this challenge, we introduce two stochastic block models for multilayer and temporal networks; one of them uses nodes as its fundamental unit, whereas the other focuses on links. We also develop scalable algorithms for inferring the parameters of these models. Because our models describe all layers simultaneously, our approach takes full advantage of the information contained in the whole network when making predictions about any particular layer. We illustrate the potential of our approach by analyzing two empirical data sets: a temporal network of e-mail communications, and a network of drug interactions for treating different cancer types. We find that multilayer models consistently outperform their single-layer counterparts, but that the most predictive model depends on the data set under consideration; whereas the node-based model is more appropriate for predicting drug interactions, the link-based model is more appropriate for predicting e-mail communication.

CliqueMS: a computational tool for annotating in-source metabolite ions from LC-MS untargeted metabolomics data based on a coelution similarity network.

MOTIVATION: The analysis of biological samples in untargeted metabolomic studies using LC-MS yields tens of thousands of ion signals. Annotating these features is of the utmost importance for answering questions as fundamental as, e.g. how many metabolites are there in a given sample. RESULTS: Here, we introduce CliqueMS, a new algorithm for annotating in-source LC-MS1 data. CliqueMS is based on the similarity between coelution profiles and therefore, as opposed to most methods, allows for the annotation of a single spectrum. Furthermore, CliqueMS improves upon the state of the art in several dimensions: (i) it uses a more discriminatory feature similarity metric; (ii) it treats the similarities between features in a transparent way by means of a simple generative model; (iii) it uses a well-grounded maximum likelihood inference approach to group features; (iv) it uses empirical adduct frequencies to identify the parental mass and (v) it deals more flexibly with the identification of the parental mass by proposing and ranking alternative annotations. We validate our approach with simple mixtures of standards and with real complex biological samples. CliqueMS reduces the thousands of features typically obtained in complex samples to hundreds of metabolites, and it is able to correctly annotate more metabolites and adducts from a single spectrum than available tools. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=cliqueMS and https://github.com/osenan/cliqueMS. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Consistencies and inconsistencies between model selection and link prediction in networks.

A principled approach to understand network structures is to formulate generative models. Given a collection of models, however, an outstanding key task is to determine which one provides a more accurate description of the network at hand, discounting statistical fluctuations. This problem can be approached using two principled criteria that at first may seem equivalent: selecting the most plausible model in terms of its posterior probability; or selecting the model with the highest predictive performance in terms of identifying missing links. Here we show that while these two approaches yield consistent results in most cases, there are also notable instances where they do not, that is, where the most plausible model is not the most predictive. We show that in the latter case the improvement of predictive performance can in fact lead to overfitting both in artificial and empirical settings. Furthermore, we show that, in general, the predictive performance is higher when we average over collections of models that are individually less plausible than when we consider only the single most plausible model.

Regulation of cell cycle progression by cell-cell and cell-matrix forces.

It has long been proposed that the cell cycle is regulated by physical forces at the cell-cell and cell-extracellular matrix (ECM) interfaces1-12. However, the evolution of these forces during the cycle has never been measured in a tissue, and whether this evolution affects cell cycle progression is unknown. Here, we quantified cell-cell tension and cell-ECM traction throughout the complete cycle of a large cell population in a growing epithelium. These measurements unveil temporal mechanical patterns that span the entire cell cycle and regulate its duration, the G1-S transition and mitotic rounding. Cells subjected to higher intercellular tension exhibit a higher probability to transition from G1 to S, as well as shorter G1 and S-G2-M phases. Moreover, we show that tension and mechanical energy are better predictors of the duration of G1 than measured geometric properties. Tension increases during the cell cycle but decreases 3 hours before mitosis. Using optogenetic control of contractility, we show that this tension drop favours mitotic rounding. Our results establish that cell cycle progression is regulated cooperatively by forces between the dividing cell and its neighbours.

Leader evaluation and team cohesiveness in the process of team development: A matter of gender?

Leadership positions are still stereotyped as masculine, especially in male-dominated fields (e.g., engineering). So how do gender stereotypes affect the evaluation of leaders and team cohesiveness in the process of team development? In our study participants worked in 45 small teams (4-5 members). Each team was headed by either a female or male leader, so that 45 leaders (33% women) supervised 258 team members (39% women). Over a period of nine months, the teams developed specific engineering projects as part of their professional undergraduate training. We examined leaders' self-evaluation, their evaluation by team members, and team cohesiveness at two points of time (month three and month nine, the final month of the collaboration). While we did not find any gender differences in leaders' self-evaluation at the beginning, female leaders evaluated themselves more favorably than men at the end of the projects. Moreover, female leaders were evaluated more favorably than male leaders at the beginning of the project, but the evaluation by team members did not differ at the end of the projects. Finally, we found a tendency for female leaders to build more cohesive teams than male leaders.

Bone Fusion in Normal and Pathological Development is Constrained by the Network Architecture of the Human Skull.

Craniosynostosis, the premature fusion of cranial bones, affects the correct development of the skull producing morphological malformations in newborns. To assess the susceptibility of each craniofacial articulation to close prematurely, we used a network model of the skull to quantify the link reliability (an index based on stochastic block models and Bayesian inference) of each articulation. We show that, of the 93 human skull articulations at birth, the few articulations that are associated with non-syndromic craniosynostosis conditions have statistically significant lower reliability scores than the others. In a similar way, articulations that close during the normal postnatal development of the skull have also lower reliability scores than those articulations that persist through adult life. These results indicate a relationship between the architecture of the skull and the specific articulations that close during normal development as well as in pathological conditions. Our findings suggest that the topological arrangement of skull bones might act as a structural constraint, predisposing some articulations to closure, both in normal and pathological development, also affecting the long-term evolution of the skull.

iMet: A Network-Based Computational Tool To Assist in the Annotation of Metabolites from Tandem Mass Spectra.

Structural annotation of metabolites relies mainly on tandem mass spectrometry (MS/MS) analysis. However, approximately 90% of the known metabolites reported in metabolomic databases do not have annotated spectral data from standards. This situation has fostered the development of computational tools that predict fragmentation patterns in silico and compare these to experimental MS/MS spectra. However, because such methods require the molecular structure of the detected compound to be available for the algorithm, the identification of novel metabolites in organisms relevant for biotechnological and medical applications remains a challenge. Here, we present iMet, a computational tool that facilitates structural annotation of metabolites not described in databases. iMet uses MS/MS spectra and the exact mass of an unknown metabolite to identify metabolites in a reference database that are structurally similar to the unknown metabolite. The algorithm also suggests the chemical transformation that converts the known metabolites into the unknown one. As a proxy for the structural annotation of novel metabolites, we tested 148 metabolites following a leave-one-out cross-validation procedure or by using MS/MS spectra experimentally obtained in our laboratory. We show that for 89% of the 148 metabolites at least one of the top four matches identified by iMet enables the proper annotation of the unknown metabolites. To further validate iMet, we tested 31 metabolites proposed in the 2012-16 CASMI challenges. iMet is freely available at http://imet.seeslab.net .

Accurate and scalable social recommendation using mixed-membership stochastic block models.

With increasing amounts of information available, modeling and predicting user preferences-for books or articles, for example-are becoming more important. We present a collaborative filtering model, with an associated scalable algorithm, that makes accurate predictions of users' ratings. Like previous approaches, we assume that there are groups of users and of items and that the rating a user gives an item is determined by their respective group memberships. However, we allow each user and each item to belong simultaneously to mixtures of different groups and, unlike many popular approaches such as matrix factorization, we do not assume that users in each group prefer a single group of items. In particular, we do not assume that ratings depend linearly on a measure of similarity, but allow probability distributions of ratings to depend freely on the user's and item's groups. The resulting overlapping groups and predicted ratings can be inferred with an expectation-maximization algorithm whose running time scales linearly with the number of observed ratings. Our approach enables us to predict user preferences in large datasets and is considerably more accurate than the current algorithms for such large datasets.

Differences in Collaboration Patterns across Discipline, Career Stage, and Gender.

Collaboration plays an increasingly important role in promoting research productivity and impact. What remains unclear is whether female and male researchers in science, technology, engineering, and mathematical (STEM) disciplines differ in their collaboration propensity. Here, we report on an empirical analysis of the complete publication records of 3,980 faculty members in six STEM disciplines at select U.S. research universities. We find that female faculty have significantly fewer distinct co-authors over their careers than males, but that this difference can be fully accounted for by females' lower publication rate and shorter career lengths. Next, we find that female scientists have a lower probability of repeating previous co-authors than males, an intriguing result because prior research shows that teams involving new collaborations produce work with higher impact. Finally, we find evidence for gender segregation in some sub-disciplines in molecular biology, in particular in genomics where we find female faculty to be clearly under-represented.

Inferring propagation paths for sparsely observed perturbations on complex networks.

In a complex system, perturbations propagate by following paths on the network of interactions among the system's units. In contrast to what happens with the spreading of epidemics, observations of general perturbations are often very sparse in time (there is a single observation of the perturbed system) and in "space" (only a few perturbed and unperturbed units are observed). A major challenge in many areas, from biology to the social sciences, is to infer the propagation paths from observations of the effects of perturbation under these sparsity conditions. We address this problem and show that it is possible to go beyond the usual approach of using the shortest paths connecting the known perturbed nodes. Specifically, we show that a simple and general probabilistic model, which we solved using belief propagation, provides fast and accurate estimates of the probabilities of nodes being perturbed.