Burden of road traffic injuries related to delays in implementing safety belt laws in low- and lower-middle-income countries.

OBJECTIVE: Delayed implementation of effective road safety policies must be considered when quantifying the avoidable part of the fatal and nonfatal injuries burden. We sought to assess the avoidable part of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost due to road traffic injuries related to delays in implementing road safety laws in low- and lower-middle-income countries. METHODS: We chose one country for each of the regions of the World Health Organization (WHO) and World Bank (WB) country income levels. We used freely available data sets (WHO, International Traffic Safety Data and Analysis Group, the WB). Delays in implementation were calculated until 2013, from the year mandatory use of safety belts by motor vehicle front seat occupants was first introduced worldwide. We used life expectancy tables and age groups as social values in the DALY calculation model. From the estimated total burden, avoidable DALYs were calculated using estimates of the effectiveness of seat belt laws on fatal and nonfatal injuries combined, as extracted from published international reviews of evidence. RESULTS: From the reference year 1972, implementation delays varied from 27 years (Uzbekistan) to 41 years in Bolivia (no seat belt law as of 2013). During delays, total absolute numbers of DALYs lost due to road traffic injuries reached 8,462,099 in Nigeria, 7,203,570 in Morocco, 4,695,500 in Uzbekistan, 3,866,391 in Cambodia, 3,253,359 in Bolivia, and 3,128,721 in Sri Lanka. Using effectiveness estimates ranging from 3 to 20% reduction, the avoidable burden of road traffic injuries for car occupants was highest in Uzbekistan (avoidable part from 1.2 to 10.4%) and in Morocco (avoidable part from 1.5 to 12.3%). In countries where users of public transport and pedestrians were the most affected by the burden, the avoidable parts ranged from 0.5 to 4.4% (Nigeria) and from 0.5 to 3.4% (Bolivia). Burden of road traffic injuries mostly affected motorcyclists in Sri Lanka and Cambodia where the avoidable parts were less than 2% in both countries. In all selected countries, burden of traffic injuries mostly affected men (about 80%) as well as young people (15-34 years). CONCLUSIONS: Despite limited data availability in low- and middle-income countries, the avoidable part of the burden related to delayed intervention is measurable. These results can be used to convince countries to avoid delaying the provision of better protection to road users.

To Screen or Not to Screen: Reconciling Individual and Population Perspectives on Screening.

Screening is the early detection of a latent disorder by a test to allow early intervention with the aim of improving prognosis. Individual and population perspectives on screening are perceived as opposing interests of patients and the population. In this article, we try to reconcile these perspectives. The individual perspective is based on the clinical experience of a better prognosis at early stages and patients with missed opportunities. In the population perspective, screening is based on a population-oriented, evidence-based model and addresses the acceptability and possible negative effects, including for people without the disorder. Known possible obstacles to a positive effect of screening include a short latent stage, lead time, overdiagnosis, lack of acceptability, poor performance of tests, and misclassification of outcome. Randomized trials of screening are challenging and need an adaptation of standards such as the Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials (CONSORT). Simulating the effects of screening can allow the consideration of complex screening strategies and other options to help avoid biases related to treatment improvement and prevention success. Reconciling both perspectives is possible by considering that hypotheses underlying the former are prerequisites for the latter. From an evidence-based medicine and policy perspective, we suggest that recommending screening or prescribing a test is unethical if all possible obstacles are not documented by providing the best available evidence.

Low-dose computed tomography screening for lung cancer in populations highly exposed to tobacco: A systematic methodological appraisal of published randomised controlled trials.

Low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) screening recommendations for lung cancer are contradictory. The French National Authority for Health commissioned experts to carry a systematic review on the effectiveness, acceptability and safety of lung cancer screening with LDCT in subjects highly exposed to tobacco. We used MEDLINE and Embase databases (2003-2014) and identified 83 publications representing ten randomised control trials. Control arms and methodology varied considerably, precluding a full comparison and questioning reproducibility of the findings. From five trials reporting mortality results, only the National Lung Screening Trial found a significant decrease of disease-specific and all-cause mortality with LDCT screening compared to chest X-ray screening. None of the studies provided all information needed to document the risk-benefit balance. The lack of statistical power and the methodological heterogeneity of European trials question on the possibility of obtaining valid results separately or by pooling. We conclude, in regard to the lack of strong scientific evidence, that LDCT screening should not be recommended in subjects highly exposed to tobacco.

Comparing responsible and non-responsible drivers to assess determinants of road traffic collisions: time to standardise and revisit.

OBJECTIVES: In 1994, Robertson and Drummer formalised the responsibility analysis as an alternative to case-control studies in the study of road traffic crashes. Our objective was to assess whether published responsibility studies respected standards defining adequate case-control studies. SETTING: Using Web of Science, Scopus and Google Scholar, we identified responsibility studies indexed until October 2013, which cited Robertson and Drummer's paper. After reviewing titles, abstracts and reference lists, we selected original studies comparing responsible and non-responsible drivers, published in peer-reviewed journals or proceedings. DATA AND ANALYSIS: We applied a grid to judge the conformity of the responsibility assessment to the original definition, and whether methods addressing representativeness of selection, accuracy of measures of exposures, confounding variables, and power met standards defining adequate case-control studies. RESULTS: Of 205 titles, we identified 20 papers. Methods of responsibility assessment were the original in three papers. Variations across studies concerned the number of mitigating factors included, or the use of questionnaires rather than police data (n=3). The ratio responsible/non-responsible drivers varied from 0.90 to 5.31, due to major variations in sampling methods, threshold selection, and data completeness. Selection or measurement issues were discussed in 13 papers, but seldom addressed in the design. A comparison of confounding factors in responsible and non-responsible drivers was presented in five papers. CONCLUSIONS: Basic requirements of case-control studies are often not or not clearly met in responsibility studies. There is a need to revisit the method and to adapt existing publication standards to the way responsibility studies are reported.

Methodological issues and research recommendations for prognosis after mild traumatic brain injury: results of the International Collaboration on Mild Traumatic Brain Injury Prognosis.

The International Collaboration on Mild Traumatic Brain Injury (MTBI) Prognosis performed a comprehensive search and critical review of the literature from 2001 to 2012 to update the 2002 best-evidence synthesis conducted by the World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Neurotrauma, Prevention, Management and Rehabilitation Task Force on the prognosis of MTBI. Of 299 relevant studies, 101 were accepted as scientifically admissible. The methodological quality of the research literature on MTBI prognosis has not improved since the 2002 Task Force report. There are still many methodological concerns and knowledge gaps in the literature. Here we report and make recommendations on how to avoid methodological flaws found in prognostic studies of MTBI. Additionally, we discuss issues of MTBI definition and identify topic areas in need of further research to advance the understanding of prognosis after MTBI. Priority research areas include but are not limited to the use of confirmatory designs, studies of measurement validity, focus on the elderly, attention to litigation/compensation issues, the development of validated clinical prediction rules, the use of MTBI populations other than hospital admissions, continued research on the effects of repeated concussions, longer follow-up times with more measurement periods in longitudinal studies, an assessment of the differences between adults and children, and an account for reverse causality and differential recall bias. Well-conducted studies in these areas will aid our understanding of MTBI prognosis and assist clinicians in educating and treating their patients with MTBI.

Introduction to the findings of the International Collaboration on Mild Traumatic Brain Injury Prognosis: what is a prognostic study?

Prognostic studies of mild traumatic brain injury (MTBI) can serve many purposes. First, they are used to describe paths and outcomes of patients with MTBI. Second, they provide information on which characteristics are associated with the occurrence of outcomes. Third, they provide insight into the causation of poor or favorable course of the disease. Finally, they can assess how differences in the probability of outcomes can help predict the course of patients. In this article, we summarize methodologic principles used by the International Collaboration on MTBI Prognosis to appraise the prognostic literature. Differentiating prognostic factors (causally linked with outcome), prognostic markers (associated but not causally), and predictors is important to guide interventions, public health policy, and research. Ideally, prognostic studies need a clear statement of the type of question (hypothesis-generating descriptive, exploration of possible prognostic variables, confirmatory modeling of prognosis); a cohort study design with standardized follow-up of a representative population of patients with MTBI; a standardized data collection using reliable and accurate tools to capture clinically, biologically, psychologically, or socially relevant variables and outcomes; and an analysis of data based on survival methods. Interpretation of prognostic studies should consider biases related to differential inclusion of nonrepresentative samples of patients, poor measurements of outcomes, and poor control for confounders. Transferring prognostic results into clinical practice should be based on estimates of the predictive performance of models and on a demonstration that patient outcomes can be improved by the use of prediction rules.

Availability and quality of prehospital care on pakistani interurban roads.

Interurban road crashes often result in severe Road Traffic Injuries (RTIs). Prehospital emergency care on interurban roads was rarely evaluated in the low- and middle-income countries. The study highlighted the availability and quality of prehospital care facilities on interurban roads in Pakistan, a low-income country. The study setting was a 592-km-long National highway in the province of Sindh, Pakistan. Using the questionnaires adapted from the World Health Organization prehospital care guidelines [Sasser et al., 2005], managers and ambulance staff at the stations along highways were interviewed regarding the process of care, supplies in ambulances, and their experience of trauma care. Ambulance stations were either managed by the police or the Edhi Foundation (EF), a philanthropic organization. All highway stations were managed by the EF; the median distance between highway stations was 38 km (Interquartile Range [IQR]=27-46). We visited 14 stations, ten on the highway section, and four in cities, including two managed by the police. Most highway stations (n=13) received one RTI call per day. Half of stations (n=5) were inside highway towns, usually near primary or secondary-level healthcare facilities. Travel time to the nearest tertiary healthcare facility ranged from 31 to 70 minutes (median=48 minutes; IQR=30-60). Other shortcomings noted for stations were not triaging RTI cases (86%), informing hospitals (64%), or recording response times (57%). All ambulances (n=12) had stretchers, but only 58% had oxygen cylinders. The median schooling of ambulance staff (n=13) was 8 years (IQR=3-10), and the median paramedic training was 3 days (IQR=2-3). Observed shortcomings in prehospital care could be improved by public-private partnerships focusing on paramedic training, making available essential medical supplies, and linking ambulance stations with designated healthcare facilities for appropriate RTI triage.

Hazard perception at high- and low-risk road sites: a pilot study of interurban roads in Pakistan and Cameroon.

OBJECTIVES: Interurban roads account for a significant proportion of traffic deaths in developing countries. In this pilot study, hazard perceptions of interurban road sites involved in ≥3 injury road traffic crashes were compared with those not involved in road traffic crashes on the same road sections. SETTINGS: Karachi-Hala (Pakistan) and Yaoundé-Douala (Cameroon) road sections were the main study settings. DATA: Videos of 26 high-risk sites and 26 low-risk sites from Karachi-Hala (Pakistan) and Yaoundé-Douala (Cameroon) roads, matched for the road section, were shown to 100 voluntary Pakistani drivers. Variations in perceived site hazardousness and preferred speed for each site pair were assessed. Analyses Factors associated with incorrect hazard perception of high-risk sites (perceived as safe) were assessed by multinomial logistic regression analyses. RESULTS: Drivers reported a higher hazard perception and a lower preferred speed for high-risk sites than for their matched low-risk sites in less than half of pairs (n=12, p≤0.02). Factors associated with increased likelihood of identifying a high-risk site as safe were as follows: flat road profile (adjusted OR=2.00, 95% CI 1.55 to 2.57), intersections (OR=1.96, 95% CI 1.43 to 2.68), irregular road surface (OR=3.56, 95% CI 2.68 to 4.71), nearby road obstacles (OR=2.57, 95% CI 1.96 to 3.39) and visible rain (OR=1.85, 95% CI 1.48 to 2.32). CONCLUSION: The methods used in this study might be useful in prioritising cost-effective improvements at high-risk sites.

Emergency trauma care for severe injuries in a Moroccan region: conformance to French and World Health Organization standards.

In Morocco, injuries account for 11% of total burden of disease. Better organization of emergency care can improve the outcome of trauma patients. In Morocco, these services have been reorganized recently, but were never evaluated. The objective was to assess actual structure and processes of emergency trauma care in a Moroccan region. This comparative qualitative study was carried out in the region of Fez. The process and structure of contacting emergency care and prehospital emergency care were compared with the French 2002 standards. Emergency care at the University Teaching Hospital (UTH) was compared with World Health Organization 2005 Essential Trauma Care guidelines. Predefined care items were categorized as conforming to the standards or not. An emergency call center with a dedicated dial-up number has been established in the region since January 2007. Compared with the standards, this center was not protected by any legislation and was run by interns only. The center was underutilized during triage to help transportation of severe trauma patients. At the prehospital care level, only 3 out of 15 ambulances were equipped with resuscitation equipment and were used rarely. Only one of the ambulance staff out of three was trained in required skills. At the UTH, emergency care equipment and staff was nearly adequate. This study identified several opportunities for improvement in organizing trauma care in Fez particularly at emergency call center and ambulance service. A quality assurance program would be useful to further identifying improvements in this system.

Burden and factors associated with highway work-zone crashes, on a section of the Karachi-Hala Road, Pakistan.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the burden and factors associated with highway work-zone (HWZ) crashes. DESIGN: Historical cohort. SETTING: Section of the Karachi-Hala Road, Pakistan (196 km). DATA: Police-reported crashes and traffic statistics from January 2006 to December 2008. ANALYSIS: Crash and death risk between the HWZ and other zones for a 50 km section were compared. Crash locations were described for a further 146 km section on which factors associated with HWZ crashes were assessed. RESULTS: HWZ crashes accounted for 15.0% of traffic crashes (N = 180) and 30.8% of road fatalities (N = 91) on the 196 km section. Rates were higher in the HWZ than other zones for crashes (rate ratio (RR) = 2.35, 95% CI = 1.17 to 4.70) and deaths (RR = 4.70, 95% CI = 2.11 to 10.46). Opposite-direction crashes (adjusted OR (aOR) = 10.65, 95% CI = 3.22 to 35.25) and traffic crashes involving pedestrians (aOR = 6.03, 95% CI = 1.39 to 26.20) and on wet surfaces (aOR = 7.26, 95% CI = 4.15 to 48.89) were significantly associated with the HWZ. CONCLUSION: These results support the introduction of prevention measures such as strict traffic enforcement, traffic separation, improving pedestrian visibility, and hazard signage at HWZs in Pakistan. The feasibility and effectiveness of these measures remains to be evaluated.

Concordance between road mortality indicators in high-income and low- and middle-income countries.

OBJECTIVE: Compare concordance between road mortality indicators in high-income (HICs) and low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). STUDY DESIGN: Ecological study. POPULATION: The most recent (from 2001 to 2006) one-year road traffic data were extracted from the World Road Statistics report, 2008. ANALYSES: Three road mortality indicators: per 100,000 inhabitants (M1), per 10,000 vehicles registered (M2), per 100 million vehicle kilometers traveled (M3) were computed. Concordances between indicators were assessed using scatterplots and intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC). RESULTS: Out of 192 countries, M1 was available for 125, M2 for 114, and M3 for 60. Despite significant concordances between indicators in HICs (All ICC > or = 0.42, P < or = 0.002), M1 rates were widely dispersed against M3, whereas M2 rates were relatively more dispersed at higher M3. Scatter of indicators in LMICs was inconclusive. CONCLUSION: Indicators in LMICs were not concordant possibly due to methodological differences in measuring traffic exposition and underreporting of fatalities.

Impact of retirement on risky driving behavior and attitudes towards road safety among a large cohort of French drivers (the GAZEL cohort).

OBJECTIVES: This study investigated changes in driving behavior and attitudes towards road safety, following retirement, in a large cohort of road users. METHODS: In 2001, 14 226 participants of the GAZEL cohort in France reported their attitudes towards road safety and driving behavior using a self-administered driving behavior and road safety questionnaire. In 2004, 82% of the group (N=11 706) responded to the same questionnaire. Two complementary logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the association of (i) retirement with change in safe driving behavior and attitudes towards road safety between 2001 and 2004 and (ii) time since retirement with risky driving behavior and negative attitudes towards road safety in 2001. RESULTS: Among the participants who were active in 2001 (N=3927), those retiring between 2001 and 2004 (66%) were more likely to have discontinued sleepy driving [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 2.12, P<0.001] and phone use while driving (aOR 1.74, P=0.006) than those who remained professionally active. The second analysis showed that the likelihood of sleepy driving and phone use while driving decreased soon after retirement, whereas that of speedy driving decreased over a longer interval. Retirement had no influence on driving while intoxicated or attitudes towards road safety. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that any professional activity may account for some risky road behavior. As work-related road traffic accidents are responsible for one out of every four road casualties in France, the monitoring and prevention of sleepy driving and phoning while driving among workers should be further considered.

Clinically informative measures of the effect of drugs or other interventions.

WHAT IS ALREADY KNOWN ABOUT THIS SUBJECT: Several comparative measures (ratios, differences, or the number needed to treat) are used to express the effect of a drug or another intervention. These measures can vary in the way they are affected by the background risk measured from the reference group. WHAT THIS STUDY ADDS: This paper reviews the formulation, interpretation and limitations of measures of effect. We describe a little-known parameter, the attained effect or clinical result ratio, a positive reformulation of the relative risk difference, and suggest how available parameters can be best used to summarize results of studies of the effect of drugs. AIMS Measures to compare two drugs are often affected by the background risk in the reference group; a ceiling effect results when the background risk is small. We review measures of the effect of drugs, including a special formulation of the relative risk difference, the attained effect or clinical result ratio, that addresses background risk and ceiling effect. METHODS: Existing measures are the risk and odds ratios, the absolute and relative risk differences, and the number needed to treat. The attained effect is defined as the observed gain in success (the difference of proportion of success between the two interventions), divided by the maximum attainable gain, the maximum proportion of success one can expect. We illustrate the relationship between these measures with published results of two meta-analyses. RESULTS: In studies of the effectiveness of cell salvage, the baseline risk ranged between 8 and 95%. This variability affected the risk difference and number needed to treat, while the attained effect, with a ceiling residual risk of 2%, showed that the gain in success was half the maximum attainable gain. In studies of the effectiveness of therapy in patients infected by the human immunodeficiency virus, where the baseline risk was less variable, and there was no ceiling effect, the maximum attained effect indicated that the gain could be much smaller. CONCLUSION: The attained effect, interpreted as the proportion of effectiveness that remains to gain for future interventions, can usefully complete the number needed to treat as a clinically informative effect measure.

Systematic screening for unsafe driving due to medical conditions: still debatable.

BACKGROUND: Assessing people's ability to drive has become a public health concern in most industrialized countries. Although age itself is not a predictive factor of an increased risk for dangerous driving, the prevalence of medical conditions that may impair driving increases with age. Because the implementation of a screening for unsafe driving due to medical conditions is a public health issue, its usefulness should be judged using standardised criteria already proposed for screening for chronic disease. The aim of this paper is to propose standardised criteria suitable to assess the scientific validity of screening for unsafe driving due to medical conditions, and identify potential issues to be clarified before screening can be implemented and effective. DISCUSSION: Using criteria developed for screening for chronic diseases and published studies on driving with medical conditions, we specify six criteria to judge the opportunity of screening for unsafe driving due to medical conditions. This adaptation was needed because of the complexity of the natural history of medical conditions and their potential consequences on driving and road safety. We then illustrate that published studies pleading for or against screening for unsafe driving due to medical conditions fail to provide the needed documentation. Individual criteria were mentioned in 3 to 72% of 36 papers pleading for or against screening. Quantitative estimates of relevant indicators were provided in at most 42% of papers, and some data, such as the definition of an appropriate unsafe driving period were never provided. SUMMARY: The standardised framework described in this paper provides a template for assessing the effectiveness (or lack of effectiveness) of proposed measures for screening for unsafe driving due to medical conditions. Even if most criteria were mentioned in the published literature pleading for or against such a screening, the failure to find quantitative and evidence-based estimates of relevant indicators provides useful insight for further research.

Association between road vehicle collisions and recent medical contact in older drivers: a case-crossover study.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the association between past medical contacts and the risk of vehicle collision in a population of older drivers from the province of Quebec, Canada. DESIGN: Case-crossover study. SETTING: Quebec. PARTICIPANTS: 111 699 older drivers involved in at least one vehicle collision between January 1988 and December 2000. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: For each driver, the risk of having a vehicle collision while exposed and not exposed to a medical contact was compared. Separate conditional logistic regression analyses were conducted for all drivers and in four diagnostic-specific subgroups. RESULTS: The study found a weak but statistically significant increased risk of all collisions being associated with a medical contact within 1 month before the collision, for all drivers (OR=1.10, 95% CI 1.08 to 1.11) and for drivers with diabetes (OR=1.07, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.11). CONCLUSION: Older drivers who have a collision are more likely to have been in contact with a physician shortly before the collision. These findings suggest that there might be an opportunity to detect medical conditions that put older drivers at higher risk of collision; however, further research is needed to assess the potential effectiveness and practical modalities of screening.

Adding lomustine to idarubicin and cytarabine for induction chemotherapy in older patients with acute myeloid leukemia: the BGMT 95 trial results.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Treatment of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) in older patients remains unsatisfactory. The BGMT 95 trial for older patients set out to improve the outcome of these patients by adding a third drug (lomustine) to a 5+7 idarubicin and cytarabine schedule at induction and evaluating intermediate-dose cytarabine as consolidation. DESIGN AND METHODS: A multicenter randomized trial was performed comparing induction therapy with idarubicin and cytarabine, 5+7 (IC) to induction therapy with the same drugs plus lomustine (CCNU), 200 mg\m(2) orally on day 1 (ICL). Patients in complete remission (CR) were then randomized to receive either maintenance therapy or intensification with intermediate-dose cytarabine and idarubicin followed by maintenance therapy. RESULTS: Between 1995 and 2001, 364 patients (>or=60 years) from ten centers were included. The CR rate was 58% for patients in the IC arm and 67% for patients in the ICL arm (p=0.104). The median overall survival (OS) was 7 and 12 months respectively (p=0.05), but OS at 2 years was not statistically different: 31+/-7% for patients in the ICL arm vs 24+/-6% for those in the IC arm. The two post-remission strategies yielded similar results. INTERPRETATION AND CONCLUSIONS: Adding lomustine to induction with idarubicin and cytarabine therapy did not statistically improve survival in elderly patients with AML. Adding intermediate-dose cytarabine to consolidation therapy did not improve outcome.

Imputation of individual cancer cases to occupational causes.

OBJECTIVES: Many potential occupational causes of cancer have been documented. Imputation of an individual cancer to occupational or other causes is, however, difficult. A method based on the Bayes theorem is proposed for assessing causal relationships at the individual level. METHODS: Causality assessment, dealing with four types of persons defined by exposure and the occurrence of cancer, was linked with imputation, only dealing with persons who have cancer and were exposed. Imputation was then formulated using the Bayes theorem, relating epidemiologic information regarding causes, a patient's exposure history, and the posterior odds that the cancer was caused by a suspected occupational exposure. Data needed to apply a Bayesian method were defined in terms of relative risks, proportion of people exposed in populations, and the frequency of a positive relevant characteristic for persons without cancer. A relevant characteristic was defined using a formal consensus between experts. The method was then illustrated with cases of mesothelioma and lung cancer in possible relation to asbestos. RESULTS: Experts defined the relevant characteristics as being qualification of occupational exposure, intensity of exposure, latency, disease characteristics, and presence of causal agent in the body. Application to mesothelioma and lung cancer cases illustrated the potential usefulness of the method. CONCLUSIONS: The importance of occupational exposure in the formulation of imputation underscores the need for available and reliable data sources on occupational exposures. The proposed method could become a powerful tool for the expert assessment of causes of cancer cases, provided data become available in individual files and the literature.