Reducing the Number of Hospitalization Days for COPD: Setting up a Transmural-Care Pathway.

Background: Many patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) experience exacerbations of symptoms, leading to a large burden on patients and the health system and costs to society. To address this burden, a 25% reduction in number of hospitalization days for COPD exacerbations was recently declared a national goal in the Netherlands, to be achieved in 5 years. Methods: A national care pathway was designed following an established managed clinical pathway setup, which involved prior national surveys and the identification of ten key elements. The concept was discussed, made locally applicable, and finally tested in eight regions containing eleven hospitals and surrounding primary-care groups in a prospective cohort study. All patients were followed for 1 year, starting at hospitalization. Results: In total, 752 patients gave informed consent and participated (mean age 70 years, 58% female). Of these, 120 (16%) died within a year. The median length of index hospitalization was 5 days, and 43% had at least one rehospitalization within 1 year (range 0-8). There was a 19.4% reduction in number of total hospitalization days, without a decrease in health-related quality of life or perceived quality of care. Elements that contributed significantly to the reduction were contact in the first week after hospitalization, and during the year of follow-up pharmacological and nonpharmacological smoking-cessation guidance, checks on inhalation technique, and discussion of lung-attack plan. Discussion: With concerted action between patients and health workers in the hospital and in the community, a large reduction in number of hospitalization days can be achieved. The program was quite demanding for both patients and health workers. In our subsequent national implementation plan after this pilot study, we have named the major contributors to success and advocate the stepwise introduction of the elements in light of feasibility.

ABC-tool reinvented: development of a disease-specific 'Assessment of Burden of Chronic Conditions (ABCC)-tool' for multiple chronic conditions.

BACKGROUND: Numerous instruments have been developed to assess patient reported outcomes; most approaches however focus on a single condition. With the increasing prevalence of multimorbidity, this might no longer be appropriate. Moreover, a more comprehensive approach that facilitates shared decision making and stimulates self-management is most likely more valuable for clinical practice than a questionnaire alone. This study aims to transform the Assessment of Burden of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) (ABC)-tool into the Assessment of Burden of Chronic Conditions (ABCC)-tool for COPD, asthma, and diabetes mellitus type 2 (DM2). The tool consists of a scale, a visualisation of the outcomes, and treatment advice. METHODS: Requirements for the tool were formulated. Questionnaires were developed based on a literature study of existing questionnaires, clinical guidelines, interviews with patients and healthcare providers, and input from an expert group. Cut-off points and treatment advice were determined to display the results and to provide practical recommendations. RESULTS: The ABCC-scale consists of a generic questionnaire and disease-specific questionnaires, which can be combined into a single individualized questionnaire for each patient. Results are displayed in one balloon chart, and each domain includes practical recommendations. CONCLUSIONS: The ABCC-tool is expected to facilitate conversations between a patient and a healthcare provider, and to help formulate treatment plans and care plans with personalised goals. By facilitating an integrated approach, this instrument can be applied in a variety of circumstances and disease combinations.

The Fold-in, Fold-out Design for DCE Choice Tasks: Application to Burden of Disease.

Background In discrete-choice experiments (DCEs), choice alternatives are described by attributes. The importance of each attribute can be quantified by analyzing respondents' choices. Estimates are valid only if alternatives are defined comprehensively, but choice tasks can become too difficult for respondents if too many attributes are included. Several solutions for this dilemma have been proposed, but these have practical or theoretical drawbacks and cannot be applied in all settings. The objective of the current article is to demonstrate an alternative solution, the fold-in, fold-out approach (FiFo). We use a motivating example, the ABC Index for burden of disease in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Methods Under FiFo, all attributes are part of all choice sets, but they are grouped into domains. These are either folded in (all attributes have the same level) or folded out (levels may differ). FiFo was applied to the valuation of the ABC Index, which included 15 attributes. The data were analyzed in Bayesian mixed logit regression, with additional parameters to account for increased complexity in folded-out questionnaires and potential differences in weight due to the folding status of domains. As a comparison, a model without the additional parameters was estimated. Results Folding out domains led to increased choice complexity for respondents. It also gave domains more weight than when it was folded in. The more complex regression model had a better fit to the data than the simpler model. Not accounting for choice complexity in the models resulted in a substantially different ABC Index. Conclusion Using a combination of folded-in and folded-out attributes is a feasible approach for conducting DCEs with many attributes.

ABC Index: quantifying experienced burden of COPD in a discrete choice experiment and predicting costs.

OBJECTIVE: The Assessment of Burden of COPD (ABC) tool supports shared decision making between patient and caregiver. It includes a coloured balloon diagram to visualise patients' scores on burden indicators. We aim to determine the importance of each indicator from a patient perspective, in order to calculate a weighted index score and investigate whether that score is predictive of costs. DESIGN: Discrete choice experiment. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Primary care and secondary care in the Netherlands. 282 patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and 252 members of the general public participated. METHODS: Respondents received 14 choice questions and indicated which of two health states was more severe. Health states were described in terms of specific symptoms, limitations in physical, daily and social activities, mental problems, fatigue and exacerbations, most of which had three levels of severity. Weights for each item-level combination were derived from a Bayesian mixed logit model. Weights were rescaled to construct an index score from 0 (best) to 100 (worst). Regression models were used to find a classification of this index score in mild, moderate and severe that was discriminative in terms of healthcare costs. RESULTS: Fatigue, limitations in moderate physical activities, number of exacerbations, dyspnoea at rest and fear of breathing getting worse contributed most to the burden of disease. Patients assigned less weight to dyspnoea during exercise, listlessness and limitations with regard to strenuous activities. Respondents from the general public mostly agreed. Mild, moderate and severe burden of disease were defined as scores <20, 20-39 and ≥40. This categorisation was most predictive of healthcare utilisation and annual costs: €1368, €2510 and €9885, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The ABC Index is a new index score for the burden of COPD, which is based on patients' preferences. The classification of the index score into mild, moderate and severe is predictive of future healthcare costs. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NTR3788; Post-results.

'To use or not to use': a qualitative study to evaluate experiences of healthcare providers and patients with the assessment of burden of COPD (ABC) tool.

In the management of chronic conditions, such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), there is a shift from doctor-driven care to patient-centred integrated care with active involvement of and self-management by the patient. A recently developed tool, the assessment of burden of COPD (ABC) tool, can be used in this transition to facilitate self-management support and shared decision-making. We performed a qualitative study, in which we collected and analysed the data using the methods of conventional content analyses. We performed in-depth interviews consisting of mainly open questions. Fifteen healthcare providers and 21 patients were interviewed who had worked with the ABC tool in daily care. In general, participants responded positively to the tool. Healthcare providers felt the visual representation provided was effective and comprehensible for patients and provided them with insight into their disease, a finding that patients confirmed. If patients were allowed to choose between a consultation with or without the ABC tool, the majority would prefer using the tool: it provides them with an overview and insight, which makes it easier to discuss all relevant topics related to COPD. The tool can provide structure in consultations, and is compatible with the concepts of 'motivational interviewing' and 'individualised care-planning'. Suggestions for improvement related to content and layout. So far, the tool has only been available as a stand-alone online program, that is not connected to the electronic medical record systems. It was therefore suggested that the tool be integrated into the systems to enhance its usability and its uptake by healthcare providers.

Effectiveness of the Assessment of Burden of COPD (ABC) tool on health-related quality of life in patients with COPD: a cluster randomised controlled trial in primary and hospital care.

OBJECTIVE: Assessing the effectiveness of the Assessment of Burden of COPD (ABC) tool on disease-specific quality of life in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) measured with the St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ), compared with usual care. METHODS: A pragmatic cluster randomised controlled trial, in 39 Dutch primary care practices and 17 hospitals, with 357 patients with COPD (postbronchodilator FEV1/FVC ratio <0.7) aged ≥40 years, who could understand and read the Dutch language. Healthcare providers were randomly assigned to the intervention or control group. The intervention group applied the ABC tool, which consists of a short validated questionnaire assessing the experienced burden of COPD, objective COPD parameter (eg, lung function) and a treatment algorithm including a visual display and treatment advice. The control group provided usual care. Researchers were blinded to group allocation during analyses. Primary outcome was the number of patients with a clinically relevant improvement in SGRQ score between baseline and 18-month follow-up. Secondary outcomes were the COPD Assessment Test (CAT) and the Patient Assessment of Chronic Illness Care (PACIC; a measurement of perceived quality of care). RESULTS: At 18-month follow-up, 34% of the 146 patients from 27 healthcare providers in the intervention group showed a clinically relevant improvement in the SGRQ, compared with 22% of the 148 patients from 29 healthcare providers in the control group (OR 1.85, 95% CI 1.08 to 3.16). No difference was found on the CAT (-0.26 points (scores ranging from 0 to 40); 95% CI -1.52 to 0.99). The PACIC showed a higher improvement in the intervention group (0.32 points (scores ranging from 1 to 5); 95% CI 0.14 to 0.50). CONCLUSIONS: This study showed that use of the ABC tool may increase quality of life and perceived quality of care. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NTR3788; Results.

Cold, clumpy accretion onto an active supermassive black hole.

Supermassive black holes in galaxy centres can grow by the accretion of gas, liberating energy that might regulate star formation on galaxy-wide scales. The nature of the gaseous fuel reservoirs that power black hole growth is nevertheless largely unconstrained by observations, and is instead routinely simplified as a smooth, spherical inflow of very hot gas. Recent theory and simulations instead predict that accretion can be dominated by a stochastic, clumpy distribution of very cold molecular clouds--a departure from the 'hot mode' accretion model--although unambiguous observational support for this prediction remains elusive. Here we report observations that reveal a cold, clumpy accretion flow towards a supermassive black hole fuel reservoir in the nucleus of the Abell 2597 Brightest Cluster Galaxy (BCG), a nearby (redshift z = 0.0821) giant elliptical galaxy surrounded by a dense halo of hot plasma. Under the right conditions, thermal instabilities produce a rain of cold clouds that fall towards the galaxy's centre, sustaining star formation amid a kiloparsec-scale molecular nebula that is found at its core. The observations show that these cold clouds also fuel black hole accretion, revealing 'shadows' cast by the molecular clouds as they move inward at about 300 kilometres per second towards the active supermassive black hole, which serves as a bright backlight. Corroborating evidence from prior observations of warmer atomic gas at extremely high spatial resolution, along with simple arguments based on geometry and probability, indicate that these clouds are within the innermost hundred parsecs of the black hole, and falling closer towards it.

Effectiveness of the Assessment of Burden of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (ABC) tool: study protocol of a cluster randomised trial in primary and secondary care.

BACKGROUND: Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) is a growing worldwide problem that imposes a great burden on the daily life of patients. Since there is no cure, the goal of treating COPD is to maintain or improve quality of life. We have developed a new tool, the Assessment of Burden of COPD (ABC) tool, to assess and visualize the integrated health status of patients with COPD, and to provide patients and healthcare providers with a treatment algorithm. This tool may be used during consultations to monitor the burden of COPD and to adjust treatment if necessary. The aim of the current study is to analyse the effectiveness of the ABC tool compared with usual care on health related quality of life among COPD patients over a period of 18 months. METHODS/DESIGN: A cluster randomised controlled trial will be conducted in COPD patients in both primary and secondary care throughout the Netherlands. An intervention group, receiving care based on the ABC tool, will be compared with a control group receiving usual care. The primary outcome will be the change in score on a disease-specific-quality-of-life questionnaire, the Saint George Respiratory Questionnaire. Secondary outcomes will be a different questionnaire (the COPD Assessment Test), lung function and number of exacerbations. During the 18 months follow-up, seven measurements will be conducted, including a baseline and final measurement. Patients will receive questionnaires to be completed at home. Additional data, such as number of exacerbations, will be recorded by the patients' healthcare providers. A total of 360 patients will be recruited by 40 general practitioners and 20 pulmonologists. Additionally, a process evaluation will be performed among patients and healthcare providers. DISCUSSION: The new ABC tool complies with the 2014 Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease guidelines, which describe the necessity to classify patients on both their airway obstruction and a comprehensive symptom assessment. It has been developed to classify patients, but also to provide visual insight into the burden of COPD and to provide treatment advice. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Netherlands Trial Register, NTR3788.

Development of the Assessment of Burden of COPD tool: an integrated tool to measure the burden of COPD.

In deciding on the treatment plan for patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), the burden of COPD as experienced by patients should be the core focus. It is therefore important for daily practice to develop a tool that can both assess the burden of COPD and facilitate communication with patients in clinical practice. This paper describes the development of an integrated tool to assess the burden of COPD in daily practice. A definition of the burden of COPD was formulated by a Dutch expert team. Interviews showed that patients and health-care providers agreed on this definition. We found no existing instruments that fully measured burden of disease according to this definition. However, the Clinical COPD Questionnaire meets most requirements, and was therefore used and adapted. The adapted questionnaire is called the Assessment of Burden of COPD (ABC) scale. In addition, the ABC tool was developed, of which the ABC scale is the core part. The ABC tool is a computer program with an algorithm that visualises outcomes and provides treatment advice. The next step in the development of the tool is to test the validity and effectiveness of both the ABC scale and tool in daily practice.

One year follow-up of patients with screen-detected metabolic syndrome in primary care: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: Early detection and appropriate treatment of metabolic syndrome (MetS) can modify cardiometabolic risk factors and prevent cardiovascular disease. Optimal screening outcomes require follow-up management of MetS. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the natural course of events in the first year after positive screening for MetS in primary care with regard to follow-up behavior, medication prescription and lifestyle changes. METHODS: Screening of 1721 apparently healthy primary care patients (20-70 years old) detected 473 new MetS cases. These people were asked to contact their general practice for subsequent advice and treatment. Data about follow-up behavior of the screening participants and prescription of cardiovascular medication were collected from the electronic medical file, and changes in lifestyle were collected by the practice nurse. RESULTS: Of the 424 participants with screen-detected MetS for whom data about follow-up were available, 306 (72.2%) spontaneously contacted the practice. Antihypertensive, lipid-lowering and blood glucose-lowering medications were prescribed in 21.5%, 21.2% and 1.9% of the participants, respectively. Half of the participants for whom data about self-reported lifestyle changes were available reported to have increased their physical activity; 16.9% of the smokers quit smoking. Average weight loss was 2.1kg. CONCLUSIONS: Screening for MetS followed by the advice to contact the general practice for lifestyle counseling and treatment had a substantial spontaneous follow-up. Although the changes in physical activity, weight loss and smoking abstinence are promising, further research will have to demonstrate whether they are sustainable.

Remission of screen-detected metabolic syndrome and its determinants: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: Early detection and treatment of the metabolic syndrome may prevent diabetes and cardiovascular disease. Our aim was to assess remission of the metabolic syndrome and its determinants after a population based screening without predefined intervention in the Netherlands. METHODS: In 2006 we detected 406 metabolic syndrome cases (The National Cholesterol Education Program's Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP ATP III) definition) among apparently healthy individuals with an increased waist circumference. They received usual care in a primary care setting. After three years metabolic syndrome status was re-measured. We evaluated which baseline determinants were independently associated with remission. RESULTS: The remission rate among the 194 participants was 53%. Baseline determinants independently associated with a remission were the presence of more than three metabolic syndrome components (OR 0.46) and higher levels of waist circumference (OR 0.91), blood pressure (OR 0.98) and fasting glucose (OR 0.60). CONCLUSIONS: In a population with screen-detected metabolic syndrome receiving usual care, more than half of the participants achieved a remission after three years. This positive result after a relatively simple strategy provides a solid basis for a nation-wide implementation. Not so much socio-demographic variables but a higher number and level of the metabolic syndrome components were predictors of a lower chance of remission. In such cases, primary care physicians should be extra alert.

Advanced glycation end products measured by skin autofluorescence in a population with central obesity.

Accumulation of advanced glycation end products (AGEs) is enhanced by chronic hyperglycemia and oxidative stress and this process may contribute to the pathogenesis of vascular disease. Skin autofluorescence (AF), a measure of accumulation of AGEs in skin collagen, is associated with vascular disease in patients with diabetes.   Because central obesity enhances oxidative stress people with central obesity might already have increased accumulation of AGEs before diabetes or cardiovascular disease become manifest. To test this hypothesis, we compared the distribution of skin AF and its association with clinical and biochemical parameters in individuals with and without central obesity. Skin AF was measured by a validated AGE Reader in 816 persons with and 431 persons without central obesity, aged 20-70 y. Mean skin AF increased with age and smoking and was higher in centrally obese individuals compared with non-obese individuals (p = 0.001, after adjustment for age and smoking p = 0.13). Mean skin AF in the subgroups without central obesity and without other risk factors (n = 106), central obesity without other risk factors (n = 74) and central obesity with other risk factors (n = 742) was 1.63 ± 0.37, 1.74 ± 0.44 and 1.87 ± 0.43 AU, respectively (p for trend < 0.001, after adjustment for age and smoking p for trend = 0.12). In the group with central obesity age, current smoking, alcohol consumption, waist circumference, creatinine clearance and hs-CRP were independently associated with skin AF (R(2) = 29.4%). Waist circumference hardly contributed to the explained variance. The relationship between waist circumference and skin AF is not as obvious as we hypothesized.

[Summary of NHG practice guideline 'Acute cough']. / Samenvatting van de NHG-standaard 'Acuut hoesten'.

Coughing is usually caused by an uncomplicated respiratory tract infection for which antibiotics are not useful. Noscapine and codein are not advised. When the risk of complications is increased (because of age or relevant comorbidity), the decision to prescribe an antibiotic is based on the clinical presentation and any necessary additional investigations. Determination of the CRP value can assist in differentiating between pneumonia and a mild lower respiratory tract infection in moderately sick adults with several general and/or local symptoms. Patients with pneumonia should be prescribed antibiotics. Because of increasing resistance to doxycycline and macrolides, amoxicillin is the drug of first choice, and doxycycline of second choice. In the case of increased risk of severe pneumonia due to Coxiella burnetii (Q-fever) or Legionella, doxycycline remains first choice. In the case of whooping cough, additional investigation is advised if there are infants or third trimester pregnant women in the immediate environment. In moderately severe croup a single dose of glucocorticoids should be given; children with severe croup should be referred to a paediatrician.

High-sensitivity C-reactive protein to detect metabolic syndrome in a centrally obese population: a cross-sectional analysis.

BACKGROUND: People with central obesity have an increased risk for developing the metabolic syndrome, type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease. However, a substantial part of obese individuals have no other cardiovascular risk factors, besides their obesity. High sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), a marker of systemic inflammation and a predictor of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease, is associated with the metabolic syndrome and its separate components. We evaluated the use of hs-CRP to discriminate between centrally obese people with and without the metabolic syndrome. METHODS: 1165 people with central obesity but without any previous diagnosis of hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes or cardiovascular disease, aged 20-70 years, underwent a physical examination and laboratory assays to determine the presence of the metabolic syndrome (NCEP ATP III criteria). Multivariable linear regression analyses were performed to assess which metabolic syndrome components were independently associated with hs-CRP. A ROC curve was drawn and the area under the curve was calculated to evaluate whether hs-CRP was capable to predict the presence of the metabolic syndrome. RESULTS: Median hs-CRP levels were significantly higher in individuals with central obesity with the metabolic syndrome (n = 417; 35.8%) compared to individuals with central obesity without the metabolic syndrome (2.2 mg/L (IQR 1.2-4.0) versus 1.7 mg/L (IQR 1.0-3.4); p < 0.001). Median hs-CRP levels increased with an increasing number of metabolic syndrome components present. In multivariable linear regression analyses, waist circumference and triglycerides were the only components that were independently associated with hs-CRP after adjusting for smoking, gender, alcohol consumption and the other metabolic syndrome components. The area under the ROC curve was 0.57 (95%-CI 0.53-0.60). CONCLUSIONS: Hs-CRP has limited capacity to predict the presence of the metabolic syndrome in a population with central obesity.

[Detection of metabolic syndrome by self-measurement of waist circumference]. / Opsporing van het metabool syndroom door mensen zelf hun middelomtrek te laten meten.

OBJECTIVE: Determination of both the feasibility and the result in terms of cardiovascular risk factors of self-measurement of waist circumference by apparently healthy people. We also investigated the prevalence of metabolic syndrome in a population of patients aged 20-69 years in IJsselstein, the Netherlands. DESIGN: Cross-sectional survey. METHODS: All patients aged 20-69 years in the care of a group of General Practitioners (GPs) in IJsselstein, the Netherlands, who were not known to have diabetes, hypertension or dyslipidaemia (n = 11,862), received a tape measure and instructions by mail with the request to measure their waist circumference. Those with an increased waist circumference (> 88 and > 102 cm for women and men, respectively) were invited to undergo investigations to determine whether they conformed to the NCEP ATP III criteria for metabolic syndrome. The prevalence of metabolic syndrome was determined by a combination of these results with file studies of those with already known risk factors for cardiac and vascular disease. RESULTS: The total response rate was 62%. The intraclass correlation between the waist circumference measured by the respondents and by the investigators was 0.80 (p < 0.05). 473 new cases of metabolic syndrome were detected among 1721 persons with an increased waist circumference on self-measurement, 40 % in people younger than 45 years. The total prevalence among those aged 20-69 years in IJsselstein was 15.5%. Only 39% of the people with the metabolic syndrome were already known to have risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: A GP initiated screening system for metabolic syndrome, in which self-measurement of waist circumference was the first step, proved to be feasible and reliable. A substantial group of people aged less than 45 years and at increased cardiovascular risk were also detected using this method of population screening.

Identifying people with metabolic syndrome in primary care by screening with a mailed tape measure: a survey of 14,000 people in the Netherlands.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the feasibility of population-based screening for metabolic syndrome (MetS) in primary care with self-measurement of waist circumference (WC) as first step, and the prevalence of MetS in a Dutch city. METHODS: A survey of 14,000 people on the list of primary care physicians in the city of IJsselstein. All adults between 20 and 70 years on July 1st, 2006 were asked to measure their WC using a mailed tape measure. Participants with a high WC (>88/102 cm for women/men) were invited for assessment of other factors defining MetS. For patients already known with cardiovascular risk factors, these data were collected from medical records. RESULTS: 11,862 subjects were invited, of whom 6843 (58%) measured their WC. 2004 had a WC>88/102 cm and 1721 participated in all examinations. In 473 MetS was detected. The sensitivity of the screening was 77%, the negative predictive value 96%. The prevalence of MetS, including patients known with cardiovascular risk factors, was 15.5%. CONCLUSIONS: A primary care physician-driven population screening with self-measurement of WC can identify adults with MetS. The estimated prevalence of MetS is 15.5%. This procedure creates possibilities for targeted screening, prevention and treatment of people who are at increased cardiovascular risk.

Are patient characteristics helpful in recognizing mild COPD (GOLD I) in daily practice?

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether in a high-risk group of middle-aged male current smokers, patient characteristics are useful to recognize mild COPD (GOLD stage I). DESIGN: In a cross-sectional study spirometry was performed according to the American Thoracic Society criteria. COPD was defined according to the GOLD criteria for COPD. SETTING: Primary care. SUBJECTS: Male smokers, aged 40-65 years, without documented lung disease in the population at large. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Medical records were scrutinized to collect patient characteristics. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent determinants of mild COPD. RESULTS: A total of 567 subjects participated. COPD, defined by a FEV1/FVC ratio < 0.7, was detected in 170 subjects (30.0%, 95% CI 26.2-33.9%). In 149 subjects (26.3%; 22.7-30.1%) COPD was mild (GOLD stage I) and in 21 subjects (3.7%; 2.3-5.6%) moderate (GOLD stage II). Only age and cough were independently associated with the presence of mild COPD. The ability of these determinants to discriminate between subjects with or without mild COPD was relatively poor (ROC area 0.65). Therefore no prediction rule was developed. CONCLUSION: Our results indicate that patient characteristics are not helpful to recognize mild COPD (GOLD stage I) in middle-aged male smokers.

Incidence and determinants of moderate COPD (GOLD II) in male smokers aged 40-65 years: 5-year follow up.

BACKGROUND: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a major health problem with an estimated prevalence of 10-15% among smokers. The incidence of moderate COPD, as defined by the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD), is largely unknown. AIM: To determine the cumulative incidence of moderate COPD (forced expiratory volume in 1 second/forced vital capacity ratio [FEV1/FVC] <0.7 and FEV1 <80% predicted) and its association with patient characteristics in a cohort of male smokers. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: The city of IJsselstein, a small town in the Netherlands. METHOD: Smokers aged 40-65 years who were registered with local GPs, participated in a study to identify undetected COPD. Baseline measurements were taken in 1998 of 399 smokers with normal spirometry (n = 292) or mild COPD (FEV1/FVC <0.7 and FEV1 >or=80% predicted, n = 107) and follow-up measurements were conducted in 2003. RESULTS: After a mean follow-up of 5.2 years, 33 participants developed moderate COPD (GOLD II). This showed an estimated cumulative incidence of 8.3% (95% CI = 5.8 to 11.4) and a mean annual incidence of 1.6%. No participant developed severe airflow obstruction. The risk of developing moderate COPD in smokers with baseline mild COPD (GOLD I) was five times higher than in those with baseline normal spirometry (one in five versus one in 25). CONCLUSIONS: In a cohort of middle-aged male smokers, the estimated cumulative incidence of moderate COPD (GOLD II) over 5 years was relatively high (8.3%). Age, childhood smoking, cough, and one or more GP contacts for lower respiratory tract problems were independently associated with incident moderate COPD.

Prevalence of undetected persistent airflow obstruction in male smokers 40-65 years old.

BACKGROUND: Airflow obstruction in smokers is often diagnosed relatively late. Earlier detection of airflow obstruction and smoking cessation may result in significant health gain. OBJECTIVE: To determine the prevalence of previously undetected persistent airflow obstruction according to WHO/GOLD criteria in male smokers aged 40 to 65 years and its correlation with age, smoking history and the presence of coughing. METHODS: In a cross-sectional study among 805 male smokers aged 40-65 years spirometry was performed according to ATS recommendations. In participants with low lung function (FEV1 < 85% predicted) a bronchodilator test was performed. RESULTS: In 702 participants [mean age 50 years (SD 6.6), mean number of pack years 24.7 (SD 9.6)] with acceptable spirometric curves, previously undetected airflow obstruction was found in 210 subjects (29.9%; 95% CI 26.5-33.4): mild airflow obstruction (GOLD stage 1) in 182 subjects (25.9%; 22.7-29.3) and moderate airflow obstruction (GOLD stage 2) in 28 (4.0%; 2.7-5.7). In the older age group (>55 years) airflow obstruction (GOLD 1 or higher) was found in 45% versus 21% in the youngest age group (40-44 years). In subjects with > or =30 pack years the prevalence of airflow obstruction was 45% versus 20% among those with <20 pack years. In smokers reporting coughing the prevalence was 47% versus 25% in those not reporting this symptom. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of undetected persistent airflow obstruction in middle-aged smokers is high. Targeted screening therefore, especially in smokers aged 40-65 years needs to be considered.