The potential distribution of Bacillus anthracis suitability across Uganda using INLA.

To reduce the veterinary, public health, environmental, and economic burden associated with anthrax outbreaks, it is vital to identify the spatial distribution of areas suitable for Bacillus anthracis, the causative agent of the disease. Bayesian approaches have previously been applied to estimate uncertainty around detected areas of B. anthracis suitability. However, conventional simulation-based techniques are often computationally demanding. To solve this computational problem, we use Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) which can adjust for spatially structured random effects, to predict the suitability of B. anthracis across Uganda. We apply a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) within the INLA Bayesian framework to quantify the relationships between B. anthracis occurrence and the environment. We consolidate a national database of wildlife, livestock, and human anthrax case records across Uganda built across multiple sectors bridging human and animal partners using a One Health approach. The INLA framework successfully identified known areas of species suitability in Uganda, as well as suggested unknown hotspots across Northern, Eastern, and Central Uganda, which have not been previously identified by other niche models. The major risk factors for B. anthracis suitability were proximity to water bodies (0-0.3 km), increasing soil calcium (between 10 and 25 cmolc/kg), and elevation of 140-190 m. The sensitivity of the final model against the withheld evaluation dataset was 90% (181 out of 202 = 89.6%; rounded up to 90%). The prediction maps generated using this model can guide future anthrax prevention and surveillance plans by the relevant stakeholders in Uganda.

Detection of Bacillus anthracis in animal tissues using InBios active anthrax detect rapid test lateral flow immunoassay.

The Active Anthrax Detect (AAD) Rapid Test lateral flow immunoassay is a point-of-care assay that was under investigational use for detecting Bacillus anthracis capsular polypeptide (polyglutamic acid) in human blood, serum and plasma. Small sample volumes, rapid results and no refrigeration required allow for easy use in either the field or laboratory. Although the test was developed for use in suspect cases of human inhalation anthrax, its features also make it a potentially powerful tool for testing suspect animal cases. We tested animal tissue samples that were confirmed or ruled out for B. anthracis. The AAD Rapid Tests were also deployed in the field, testing animal carcasses during an anthrax outbreak in hippopotami (Hippopotamus amphibius) and Cape buffalo (Syncerus caffer) in Namibia. Evaluation of all samples showed a specificity of 82% and sensitivity of 98%. However, when the assay was used on specimens from only fresh carcasses (dead for <24 h), the specificity increased to 96%. The AAD Rapid Test is a rapid and simple screening assay, but confirmatory testing needs to be done, especially when the age of the sample (days animal has been deceased) is unknown. SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY: In countries where anthrax is endemic, many human outbreaks are often caused by epizootics. Earlier detection of infected animals may allow for identification of exposed people, early implementation of prevention and control methods, and ultimately lessen the number of people and animals affected. Detection of Bacillus anthracis in animal tissues using a simple, rapid and field-deployable method would allow for faster outbreak response. We evaluated a simple sample collection and processing method for use with the Active Anthrax Detect Rapid Test lateral flow immunoassay to screen dead animals for anthrax.

Establishment of the black-tailed prairie dog (Cynomys ludovicianus) as a novel animal model for comparing smallpox vaccines administered preexposure in both high- and low-dose monkeypox virus challenges.

The 2003 monkeypox virus (MPXV) outbreak and subsequent laboratory studies demonstrated that the black-tailed prairie dog is susceptible to MPXV infection and that the ensuing rash illness is similar to human systemic orthopoxvirus (OPXV) infection, including a 7- to 9-day incubation period and, likely, in some cases a respiratory route of infection; these features distinguish this model from others. The need for safe and efficacious vaccines for OPVX in areas where it is endemic or epidemic is important to protect an increasingly OPXV-naïve population. In this study, we tested current and investigational smallpox vaccines for safety, induction of anti-OPXV antibodies, and protection against mortality and morbidity in two MPXV challenges. None of the smallpox vaccines caused illness in this model, and all vaccinated animals showed anti-OPXV antibody responses and neutralizing antibody. We tested vaccine efficacy by challenging the animals with 10(5) or 10(6) PFU Congo Basin MPXV 30 days postvaccination and evaluating morbidity and mortality. Our results demonstrated that vaccination with either Dryvax or Acambis2000 protected the animals from death with no rash illness. Vaccination with IMVAMUNE also protected the animals from death, albeit with (modified) rash illness. Based on the results of this study, we believe prairie dogs offer a novel and potentially useful small animal model for the safety and efficacy testing of smallpox vaccines in pre- and postexposure vaccine testing, which is important for public health planning.