Future snow projections in a small basin of the Western Himalaya.

Snow is a crucial component of the hydrological cycle in the Western Himalaya. Water from snowmelt is used in various sectors in downstream regions, thus playing a critical role in securing the livelihoods of millions of people. In this study, we investigated the future evolution of snow cover and snowmelt in the Panjshir catchment of Afghanistan, a sub-basin of the Indus, in the Western Himalaya. We applied a three-step approach to select a few global climate model (GCM) simulations from CMIP5 climate datasets for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, which showed reasonable performance with ERA5-Land dataset for the chosen historical period (1981-2010). The selected model simulations were then segregated into two groups: those projecting a cold-wet climate and those projecting a warm-dry climate by the end of the 21st century (2071-2100). These GCMs were downscaled to a higher resolution using empirical statistical downscaling. To simulate the snow processes, we used the distributed cryospheric-hydrological J2000 model. The results indicate that the model captures well the snow cover dynamics for the historical period when compared with the daily MODIS-derived snow cover. The J2000 model was then forced by climate projections from the selected GCMs to quantify future changes in snow cover area, snow storage and snowmelt. While a 10-18% reduction in annual snow cover area is projected in the cold-wet models, a 22-36% reduction is projected in the warm-dry models. Similarly, the snow cover area is projected to decrease in all elevation bands under climate change. At the seasonal scale, across all models and scenarios, the snow cover in the autumn and spring seasons are projected to reduce by as much as 25%, with an increase in winter and spring snowmelt and a decrease in summer snowmelt. The projected changes in the seasonal availability of snowmelt-driven water resources are likely to have direct implications for water-dependent sectors in the region and call for a better understanding of water usage and future adaptation practices.

Novel biogenic aggregation of moss gemmae on a disappearing African glacier.

Tropical regions are not well represented in glacier biology, yet many tropical glaciers are under threat of disappearance due to climate change. Here we report a novel biogenic aggregation at the terminus of a glacier in the Rwenzori Mountains, Uganda. The material was formed by uniseriate protonemal moss gemmae and protonema. Molecular analysis of five genetic markers determined the taxon as Ceratodon purpureus, a cosmopolitan species that is widespread in tropical to polar region. Given optimal growing temperatures of isolate is 20-30 °C, the cold glacier surface might seem unsuitable for this species. However, the cluster of protonema growth reached approximately 10 °C in daytime, suggesting that diurnal increase in temperature may contribute to the moss's ability to inhabit the glacier surface. The aggregation is also a habitat for microorganisms, and the disappearance of this glacier will lead to the loss of this unique ecosystem.