The long-term effects of dapagliflozin in chronic kidney disease: a time-to-event analysis.

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) presents a significant clinical and economic burden to healthcare systems worldwide, which increases considerably with progression towards kidney failure. The DAPA-CKD trial demonstrated that patients with or without type 2 diabetes (T2D) who were treated with dapagliflozin experienced slower progression of CKD versus placebo. Understanding the effect of long-term treatment with dapagliflozin on the timing of kidney failure beyond trial follow-up can assist informed decision-making by healthcare providers and patients. The study objective was therefore to extrapolate the outcome-based clinical benefits of treatment with dapagliflozin in patients with CKD via a time-to-event analysis using trial data. METHODS: Patient-level data from the DAPA-CKD trial were used to parameterise a closed cohort-level partitioned survival model that predicted time-to-event for key trial endpoints (kidney failure, all-cause mortality, sustained decline in kidney function, and hospitalisation for heart failure). Data were pooled with a subpopulation of the DECLARE-TIMI 58 trial to create a combined CKD population spanning a range of CKD stages; a parallel survival analysis was conducted in this population. RESULTS: In the DAPA-CKD and pooled CKD populations, treatment with dapagliflozin delayed time to first event for kidney failure, all-cause mortality, sustained decline in kidney function, and hospitalisation for heart failure. Attenuation of CKD progression was predicted to slow the time to kidney failure by 6.6 years (dapagliflozin: 25.2, 95%CI: 19.0-31.5; standard therapy: 18.5, 95%CI: 14.7-23.4) in the DAPA-CKD population. A similar result was observed in the pooled CKD population with an estimated delay of 6.3 years (dapagliflozin: 36.0, 95%CI: 31.9-38.3; standard therapy: 29.6, 95%CI: 25.5-34.7). CONCLUSION: Treatment with dapagliflozin over a lifetime time horizon may considerably delay the mean time to adverse clinical outcomes for patients who would go on to experience them, including those at modest risk of progression.

Glucose-lowering treatment pathways of individuals with chronic kidney disease and type 2 diabetes according to the Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes 2012 risk classification.

AIMS: To describe treatment pathways for key glucose-lowering therapies in individuals with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and type 2 diabetes (T2D) using retrospective data from DISCOVER CKD (NCT04034992). METHODS: Data were extracted from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) linked to Hospital Episode Statistics data (2008-2020) and the US integrated Limited Claims and Electronic Health Records Database (LCED; 2012-2019). Eligible individuals were aged ≥18 years with CKD, identified by two consecutive estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) measures (15-<75 mL/min/1.73 m2 ; 90-730 days apart; index date was the second measurement) and T2D. Chronological treatment pathways for glucose-lowering therapies prescribed on or after CKD index to end of follow-up were computed. Median time and proportion of overall follow-up time on treatment were described for each therapy by database and by eGFR and urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) categories. RESULTS: Of 36,951 and 4339 eligible individuals in the CPRD and LCED, respectively, median baseline eGFR was 67.8 and 64.9 mL/min/1.73 m2 ; 64.2 and 63.9% received metformin prior to index; and median (interquartile range) time on metformin during follow-up was 917 (390-1671) and 454 (192-850) days (accounting for ~75% of follow-up time in both databases). The frequency of combination treatment increased over time. There were trends towards decreased metformin prescriptions with decreasing eGFR and increasing UACR within each eGFR category. CONCLUSIONS: Individuals with CKD and T2D had many combinations of therapies and substantial follow-up time on therapy. These results highlight opportunities for improved CKD management.

Extrapolated longer-term effects of the DAPA-CKD trial: a modelling analysis.

BACKGROUND: The Dapagliflozin and Prevention of Adverse Outcomes in Chronic Kidney Disease (DAPA-CKD) trial assessed dapagliflozin versus placebo, in addition to standard therapy, in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and albuminuria, and was terminated prematurely due to overwhelming efficacy. The study objective was to model the long-term clinical outcomes of DAPA-CKD beyond the trial follow-up. METHODS: A Markov model extrapolated event incidence per 1000 patients and CKD progression rates for patients receiving dapagliflozin or placebo over a 10-year time horizon. We derived treatment-specific CKD stage transition matrices using DAPA-CKD trial data. We extrapolated relevant efficacy endpoints using parametric survival equations for all-cause mortality and generalized estimating equations for recurrent events. RESULTS: When extrapolated over a 10-year period, patients randomized to dapagliflozin spent more time in CKD stages 1-3 and less in stages 4-5 than placebo [0.65 (95% CrI 0.41, 0.90) and -0.23 (95% CrI -0.45, 0.00) years per patient, respectively]. Dapagliflozin prevented an estimated 83 deaths and 51 patients initiating kidney replacement therapy per 1000 patients over 10 years. Predicted rates of hospitalized heart failure and abrupt declines in kidney function were reduced (19 and 39 estimated events per 1000 patients, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Adding dapagliflozin to standard therapeutic management of CKD is expected to have long-term cardiorenal benefit beyond what has been demonstrated in the DAPA-CKD trial, with patients predicted to live longer with fewer complications.

Projecting the Epidemiological and Economic Impact of Chronic Kidney Disease Using Patient-Level Microsimulation Modelling: Rationale and Methods of Inside CKD.

INTRODUCTION: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a serious condition associated with significant morbidity and healthcare costs. Despite this, early-stage CKD is often undiagnosed, and globally there is substantial variation in the effectiveness of screening and subsequent management. Microsimulations can estimate future epidemiological costs, providing useful insights for clinicians, policymakers and researchers. Inside CKD is a programme designed to analyse the projected prevalence and burden of CKD for countries across the world, and to simulate hypothetical intervention strategies that can then be assessed for potential impact on health and economic outcomes at a national and a global level. METHODS: Inside CKD uses a population-based approach that creates virtual individuals for a given country, with this simulated population progressing through a microsimulation in 1-year increments. A series of data inputs derived from national statistics and key literature defined the likelihood of a change in health state for each individual. Input modules allow for the input of nationally specific demographic and CKD status (including prevalence, diagnosis rates, disease stage and likelihood of renal replacement therapy), disease progression, critical comorbidities, and mortality. Health economics are reflected in cost data and a flexible intervention module allows for the testing of hypothetical policies-such as screening strategies-that may alter disease progression and outcomes. RESULTS: Using input data from the UK as a case study and a 6-year simulation period, Inside CKD estimated a prevalence of 9.2 million individuals (both diagnosed and estimated undiagnosed) with CKD by 2027 and a 5.0% increase in costs for diagnosed CKD and renal replacement therapy. External validation and sensitivity analyses confirmed the observed trends, substantiating the robustness of the microsimulation. CONCLUSIONS: Using a microsimulation approach, Inside CKD extends the reach of current CKD policy analyses by factoring in multiple inputs that reflect national healthcare systems and enable analysis of the effect of multiple hypothetical screening scenarios on disease progression and costs.

Investigating the global prevalence and consequences of undiagnosed stage 3 chronic kidney disease: methods and rationale for the REVEAL-CKD study.

Background: Timely diagnosis and treatment of stage 3 chronic kidney disease (CKD) can prevent further loss of kidney function and progression to kidney failure. However, contemporary data on the global prevalence of undiagnosed stage 3 CKD are scarce. REVEAL-CKD is a multinational, multifocal and observational study aiming to provide insights into undiagnosed stage 3 CKD in a large population. Methods: Patients (aged ≥18 years) with data in selected secondary databases from 11 countries will be included if they have at least two estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) measurements from 2015 onwards that are ≥30 and <60 mL/min/1.73 m2, recorded >90 and ≤730 days apart. Undiagnosed cases are those without an International Classification of Diseases 9/10 diagnosis code for CKD (any stage) any time before and up to 6 months after the second qualifying eGFR measurement. Time to diagnosis will be assessed using a Kaplan-Meier approach; patient characteristics associated with undiagnosed CKD will be assessed using adjusted logistical regression analyses. Results: REVEAL-CKD will assess the point prevalence of undiagnosed stage 3 CKD and time to CKD diagnosis in initially undiagnosed cases overall and in individual countries. Trends in undiagnosed CKD prevalence by calendar year will be assessed. Patient characteristics, healthcare resource utilization, adverse clinical outcomes, and CKD management and monitoring practices in patients with versus without a CKD diagnosis will be compared. Conclusions: REVEAL-CKD will increase awareness of the global clinical and economic burden of undiagnosed stage 3 CKD and provide valuable insights to inform clinical practice and policy changes.

Clinical Outcomes and Healthcare Resource Utilization in a Real-World Population Reflecting the DAPA-CKD Trial Participants.

INTRODUCTION: The DAPA-CKD trial assessed dapagliflozin in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) with or without type 2 diabetes (T2D). To aid interpretation of results, renal and cardiovascular outcomes plus healthcare resource utilization (HCRU) and costs were assessed in a real-world population similar to that of DAPA-CKD. METHODS: Henry Ford Health System (2006-2016) data were used to identify patients with CKD stages 2-4 [estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) 25-75 ml/min/1.73 m2 at index and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) 0-5000 mg/g; n = 22,251]. Included patients had confirmatory eGFR ≥ 90 days post-index and no kidney transplant or progression to end-stage kidney disease during 12 months pre-index. The final population (n = 6557) was stratified by UACR (0-29, 30-199 and 200-5000 mg/g; the last comprising the DAPA-CKD-like cohort). Patients were followed for 5 years post-index. RESULTS: Adverse clinical outcomes incidence increased with UACR and was highest for the DAPA-CKD-like cohort (UACR 200-5000 mg/g) versus lower UACR categories (0-29 mg/g and 30-199 mg/g): renal composite outcome (progression to CKD stage 5, dialysis, transplant, ≥ 50% sustained eGFR decline): 26.0% versus 2.2% and 5.8%; heart failure (HF): 36.1% versus 13.9% and 24.6%; myocardial infarction: 11.3% versus 4.7% and 7.4%; stroke: 8.9% versus 4.0% and 5.7%; and mortality: 18.5% versus 6.0% and 11.7%, respectively. Within the DAPA-CKD-like cohort, patients with versus without T2D or HF had a higher frequency of adverse outcomes. The DAPA-CKD-like cohort also had significantly higher annualized per-patient healthcare costs ($39,222/year versus $19,547/year), hospital admission rate (0.55/year versus 0.20/year) and outpatient specialist visit rate (7.55/year versus 6.74/year) versus the lowest UACR category. CONCLUSION: The significant adverse renal and cardiovascular outcomes observed, particularly in the DAPA-CKD-like cohort, represent a substantial burden resulting in increased mortality, HCRU and costs, demonstrating the need for additional treatment options.

Health related quality of life utility weights for economic evaluation through different stages of chronic kidney disease: a systematic literature review.

BACKGROUND: A Task Force from the International Society of Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) provides recommendations on how to systematically identify and appraise health state utility (HSU) weights for cost-effectiveness analyses. We applied these recommendations to conduct a systematic review (SR) to identify HSU weights for different stages of chronic kidney disease (CKD), renal replacement therapy (RRT) and complications. METHODS: MEDLINE® and Embase were searched for interventional and non-interventional studies reporting HSU weights for patients with CKD stages 1-5 or RRT. As per ISPOR Task Force Guidance, study quality criteria, applicability for Health Technology Assessment (HTA) and generalisability to a broad CKD population were used to grade studies as either 1 (recommended), 2 (to be considered if there are no data from grade 1 studies) or 3 (not recommended). RESULTS: A total of 17 grade 1 studies were included in this SR with 51 to 1767 participants, conducted in the UK, USA, Canada, China, Spain, and multiple-countries. Health related quality of life (HRQL) instruments used in the studies included were EQ-5D-3L (10 studies), SF-6D (4 studies), HUI2/HUI3 (1 study), and combinations (2 studies). Although absolute values for HSU weights varied among instruments, HSU weights decreased with CKD severity in a consistent manner across all instruments. CONCLUSIONS: This SR identified HSU weights for a range of CKD states and showed that HRQL decreases with CKD progression. Data were available to inform cost-effectiveness analysis in CKD in a number of geographies using instruments acceptable by HTA agencies.