The potential impact of removing a ban on electronic nicotine delivery systems using the Mexico smoking and vaping model (SAVM).

Objective: To develop the Mexico Smoking and Vaping Model (Mexico SAVM) to estimate cigarette and electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) prevalence and the public health impact of legalizing ENDS use. Methods: SAVM, a cohort-based discrete-time simulation model, compares two scenarios. The ENDS-Restricted Scenario estimates smoking prevalence and associated mortality outcomes under the current policy of an ENDS ban, using Mexico-specific population projections, death rates, life expectancy, and smoking and e-cigarette prevalence. The ENDS-Unrestricted Scenario projects smoking and vaping prevalence under a hypothetical scenario where ENDS use is allowed. The impact of legalizing ENDS use is estimated as the difference in smoking- and vaping-attributable deaths (SVADs) and life-years lost (LYLs) between the ENDS-Restricted and Unrestricted scenarios. Results: Compared to a national ENDS ban, The Mexico SAVM projects that legalizing ENDS use could decrease smoking prevalence by 40.1% in males and 30.9% in females by 2049 compared to continuing the national ENDS ban. This reduction in prevalence would save 2.9 (2.5 males and 0.4 females) million life-years and avert almost 106 (91.0 males and 15.5 females) thousand deaths between 2025 and 2049. Public health gains decline by 43% to 59,748 SVADs averted when the switching rate is reduced by half and by 24.3% (92,806 SVADs averted) with a 25% ENDS risk level from that of cigarettes but increased by 24.3% (121,375 SVADs averted) with the 5% ENDS risk. Conclusions: Mexico SAVM suggests that greater access to ENDS and a more permissive ENDS regulation, simultaneous with strong cigarette policies, would reduce smoking prevalence and decrease smoking-related mortality. The unanticipated effects of an ENDS ban merit closer scrutiny, with further consideration of how specific ENDS restrictions may maximize public health benefits.

The prevalence and mortality risks of PRISm and COPD in the United States from NHANES 2007-2012.

BACKGROUND: We estimated the prevalence and mortality risks of preserved ratio impaired spirometry (PRISm) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in the US adult population. METHODS: We linked three waves of pre-bronchodilator spirometry data from the US National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey (2007-2012) with the National Death Index. The analytic sample included adults ages 20 to 79 without missing data on age, sex, height, BMI, race/ethnicity, and smoking status. We defined COPD (GOLD 1, 2, and 3-4) and PRISm using FEV1/FVC cut points by the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD). We compared the prevalence of GOLD stages and PRISm by covariates across the three waves. We estimated adjusted all-cause and cause-specific mortality risks by COPD stage and PRISm using all three waves combined. RESULTS: Prevalence of COPD and PRISm from 2007-2012 ranged from 13.1%-14.3% and 9.6%-10.2%, respectively. We found significant differences in prevalence by sex, age, smoking status, and race/ethnicity. Males had higher rates of COPD regardless of stage, while females had higher rates of PRISm. COPD prevalence increased with age, but not PRISm, which was highest among middle-aged individuals. Compared to current and never smokers, former smokers showed lower rates of PRISm but higher rates of GOLD 1. COPD prevalence was highest among non-Hispanic White individuals, and PRISm was notably higher among non-Hispanic Black individuals (range 31.4%-37.4%). We found associations between PRISm and all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.3 95% CI: 1.9-2.9) and various cause-specific deaths (HR ranges: 2.0-5.3). We also found associations between GOLD 2 (HR: 2.1, 95% CI: 1.7-2.6) or higher (HR: 4.2, 95% CI: 2.7-6.5) and all-cause mortality. Cause-specific mortality risk varied within COPD stages but typically increased with higher GOLD stage. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of COPD and PRISm remained stable from 2007-2012. Greater attention should be paid to the potential impacts of PRISm due to its higher prevalence in minority groups and its associations with mortality across various causes including cancer.

The smoking and vaping model, A user-friendly model for examining the country-specific impact of nicotine VAPING product use: application to Germany.

BACKGROUND: Simulation models play an increasingly important role in tobacco control. Models examining the impact of nicotine vaping products (NVPs) and smoking tend to be highly specialized and inaccessible. We present the Smoking and Vaping Model (SAVM),a user-friendly cohort-based simulation model, adaptable to any country, that projects the public health impact of smokers switching to NVPs. METHODS: SAVM compares two scenarios. The No-NVP scenario projects smoking rates in the absence of NVPs using population projections, deaths rates, life expectancy, and smoking prevalence. The NVP scenario models vaping prevalence and its impact on smoking once NVPs became popular. NVP use impact is estimated as the difference in smoking- and vaping-attributable deaths (SVADs) and life-years lost (LYLs) between the No-NVP and NVP scenarios. We illustrate SAVM's adaptation to the German adult ages 18+ population, the Germany-SAVM by adjusting the model using population, mortality, smoking and NVP use data. RESULTS: Assuming that the excess NVP mortality risk is 5% that of smoking, Germany-SAVM projected 4.7 million LYLs and almost 300,000 SVADs averted associated with NVP use from 2012 to 2060. Increasing the excess NVP mortality risk to 40% with other rates constant resulted in averted 2.8 million LYLs and 200,000 SVADs during the same period. CONCLUSIONS: SAVM enables non-modelers, policymakers, and other stakeholders to analyze the potential population health effects of NVP use and public health interventions.

National Health Examination Surveys: an essential piece of the health planning puzzle.

National health examination surveys (HESs) have been developed to provide important information that cannot be obtained from other sources. A HES combines information obtained by asking participants questions with biophysical measurements taken by trained field staff. They are observational studies with the highest external validity and make specific contributions to both population (public health) and individual health. Few countries have a track record of a regular wide-ranging HES, but these are the basis of many reports and scientific papers. Despite this, little evidence about HES usefulness and impact or the factors that influence HES effectiveness have been disseminated. This paper presents examples of HES contributions to society in both Europe and the Americas. We sought information by emailing a wide list of people involved in running or using national HESs across Europe and the Americas. We asked for examples of where examination data from their HES had been used in national or regional policymaking. We found multiple examples of HES data being used for agenda-setting, including by highlighting nutritional needs and identifying underdiagnosis and poor management of certain conditions. We also found many ways in which HES have been used to monitor the impact of policies and define population norms. HES data have also been used in policy formation and implementation. HES data are influential and powerful. There is need for global support, financing and networking to transfer capacities and innovation in both fieldwork and laboratory technology.

Machine learning application for predicting smoking cessation among US adults: An analysis of waves 1-3 of the PATH study.

Identifying determinants of smoking cessation is critical for developing optimal cessation treatments and interventions. Machine learning (ML) is becoming more prevalent for smoking cessation success prediction in treatment programs. However, only individuals with an intention to quit smoking cigarettes participate in such programs, which limits the generalizability of the results. This study applies data from the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH), a United States longitudinal nationally representative survey, to select primary determinants of smoking cessation and to train ML classification models for predicting smoking cessation among the general population. An analytical sample of 9,281 adult current established smokers from the PATH survey wave 1 was used to develop classification models to predict smoking cessation by wave 2. Random forest and gradient boosting machines were applied for variable selection, and the SHapley Additive explanation method was used to show the effect direction of the top-ranked variables. The final model predicted wave 2 smoking cessation for current established smokers in wave 1 with an accuracy of 72% in the test dataset. The validation results showed that a similar model could predict wave 3 smoking cessation of wave 2 smokers with an accuracy of 70%. Our analysis indicated that more past 30 days e-cigarette use at the time of quitting, fewer past 30 days cigarette use before quitting, ages older than 18 at smoking initiation, fewer years of smoking, poly tobacco past 30-days use before quitting, and higher BMI resulted in higher chances of cigarette cessation for adult smokers in the US.

Cigarettes, ENDS Use, and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Incidence: A Prospective Longitudinal Study.

INTRODUCTION: Understanding the relationship between ENDS use and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and other respiratory conditions is critical. However, most previous studies have not fully adjusted for cigarette smoking history. METHODS: Using Waves 1-5 of the U.S. Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health study, the association between ENDS use and self-reported incident COPD was examined among adults aged 40+ years using discrete-time survival models. Current ENDS use was measured as a time-varying covariate, lagged by 1 wave, defined as established daily or some days of use. Multivariable models were adjusted for baseline demographics (age, sex, race/ethnicity, education), health characteristics (asthma, obesity, exposure to second-hand smoke), and smoking history (smoking status and cigarette pack years). Data were collected between 2013 and 2019, and the analysis was conducted in 2021-2022. RESULTS: Incident COPD was self-reported by 925 respondents during the 5-year follow-up. Before adjusting for other covariates, time-varying ENDS use appeared to double COPD incidence risk (hazard ratio=1.98, 95% CI=1.44, 2.74). However, ENDS use was no longer associated with COPD (adjusted hazard ratio=1.10, 95% CI=0.78, 1.57) after adjusting for current cigarette smoking and cigarette pack years. CONCLUSIONS: ENDS use did not significantly increase the risk of self-reported incident COPD over a 5-year period once current smoking status and cigarette pack years were included. Cigarette pack years, by contrast, remained associated with a net increase in COPD incidence risk. These findings highlight the importance of using prospective longitudinal data and adequately controlling for cigarette smoking history to assess the independent health effects of ENDS.

Chemical Profiles and Toxicity of Electronic Cigarettes: An Umbrella Review and Methodological Considerations.

BACKGROUND: Electronic cigarettes (ECs) are often marketed as a safer alternative to combustible tobacco products. The global EC market has rapidly expanded since their introduction, creating an urgent need for research describing the toxicity and chemical composition of ECs. We conducted an umbrella review to summarize the evidence from existing systematic reviews (SRs). METHODS: The search for SRs was conducted across four electronic databases through 25 January 2022. Methodological quality was assessed using the AMSTAR-2 quality appraisal tool. RESULTS: Twenty-five SRs were included in our umbrella review. Chemical profiles widely varied across studies included in the reviews, which was mainly attributed to the lack of standardized protocols investigating the constituents, and differences in EC devices and e-liquids tested. Metals were more abundant in some EC aerosols than cigarettes, while carbonyls were typically found at lower levels. There was consistent evidence of in vitro toxicity from EC aerosol and e-liquid exposure. AMSTAR-2 revealed important limitations across reviews. CONCLUSIONS: While most reviews concluded that ECs were likely less harmful than cigarettes, there was hesitancy to draw clear conclusions due to variable analytical procedures and inconsistent findings among the included studies. Future SRs with improved methodology and reporting are needed to adequately inform tobacco regulatory actions.

Public health impact of a US ban on menthol in cigarettes and cigars: a simulation study.

INTRODUCTION: The US Food and Drug Administration most recently announced its intention to ban menthol cigarettes and cigars nationwide in April 2021. Implementation of the ban will require evidence that it would improve public health. This paper simulates the potential public health impact of a ban on menthol in cigarettes and cigars through its impacts on smoking initiation, smoking cessation and switching to nicotine vaping products (NVPs). METHODS: After calibrating an established US simulation model to reflect recent use trends in cigarette and NVP use, we extended the model to incorporate menthol and non-menthol cigarette use under a status quo scenario. Applying estimates from a recent expert elicitation on the behavioural impacts of a menthol ban, we developed a menthol ban scenario with the ban starting in 2021. We estimated the public health impact as the difference between smoking and vaping-attributable deaths and life-years lost in the status quo scenario and the menthol ban scenario from 2021 to 2060. RESULTS: As a result of the ban, overall smoking was estimated to decline by 15% as early as 2026 due to menthol smokers quitting both NVP and combustible use or switching to NVPs. These transitions are projected to reduce cumulative smoking and vaping-attributable deaths from 2021 to 2060 by 5% (650 000 in total) and reduce life-years lost by 8.8% (11.3 million). Sensitivity analyses showed appreciable public health benefits across different parameter specifications. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Our findings strongly support the implementation of a ban on menthol in cigarettes and cigars.

Follow the money: a closer look at US tobacco industry marketing expenditures.

INTRODUCTION: While much of the concern with tobacco industry marketing has focused on direct media advertising, a less explored form of marketing strategy is to discount prices. Price discounting is important because it keeps the purchase price low and can undermine the impact of tax increases. METHODS: We examine annual US marketing expenditures from 1975 to 2019 by the largest cigarette and smokeless tobacco companies as reported to the Federal Trade Commission. We consider three categories: direct advertising, promotional allowances and price discounting. In addition to considering trends in these expenditures, we examine how price discounting expenditures relate to changes in product prices and excise taxes. RESULTS: US direct advertising expenditures for cigarettes fell from 80% of total industry marketing expenditures in 1975 to less than 3% in 2019, while falling from 39% in 1985 to 6% in 2019 for smokeless tobacco. Price discounting expenditures for cigarettes became prominent after the Master Settlement Agreement and related tax increases in 2002. By 2019, 87% of cigarette marketing expenditures were for price discounts and 7% for promotional allowances. Smokeless marketing expenditures were similar: 72% for price promotions and 13% for promotional allowances. Price discounting increased with prices and taxes until reaching their currently high levels. CONCLUSIONS: Between 1975 and 2019, direct advertising dramatically fell while price discounting and promotional expenditures increased. Local, state and federal policies are needed that apply non-tax mechanisms to increase tobacco prices and restrict industry contracts to offset industry marketing strategies. Further study is needed to better understand industry decisions about marketing expenditures.

The Australia Smoking and Vaping Model: The Potential Impact of Increasing Access to Nicotine Vaping Products.

BACKGROUND: We model the potential impact of relaxing current nicotine vaping product (NVP) restrictions on public health in Australia. AIMS AND METHODS: A Restricted NVP Scenario was first developed to project current smoking and vaping rates, where a U.S. smoking model was calibrated to recent Australian trends. To model less restrictive NVP policies, a Permissive NVP Scenario applied rates of switching from smoking to vaping, initiation into NVP and cigarette use, and cessation from smoking and vaping based on U.S. trends. The model measures vaping risk relative to the excess mortality rate of smoking. The public health impacts are measured as the difference between smoking- and vaping-attributable deaths (SVADs) and life years lost (LYLs) in the Restricted and Permissive NVP Scenarios. Sensitivity analysis is conducted regarding the NVP excess risk and other factors. RESULTS: Assuming an NVP excess risk of 5% that of smoking, 104.2 thousand SVADs (7.7% reduction) and 2.05 million LYLs (17.3% reduction) are averted during 2017-2080 in the Permissive NVP Scenario compared to the Restricted NVP Scenario. Assuming 40% NVP excess risk, 70 thousand SVADs and 1.2 million LYLs are averted. The impact is sensitive to the rate at which smokers switch to NVPs and quit smoking, and relatively insensitive to the smoking initiation and NVP initiation and cessation rates. CONCLUSIONS: The model suggests the potential for public health gains to be achieved by relaxing NVP access regulations. However, the model would benefit from better information regarding the impact of NVPs on smoking under a relaxation of current restrictions. IMPLICATIONS: Australia has implemented a strong array of cigarette-oriented policies, but has restricted access to NVPs. The Smoking and Vaping Model offers a framework for modeling hypothetical policy scenarios. The Australian model shows the potential for public health gains by maintaining cigarette-oriented policies while relaxing the current restrictive NVP policy. Modeling results under a permissive NVP policy are particularly sensitive to the estimated rates of smoking cessation and switching to vaping, which are not well established and will likely depend on past and future cigarette-oriented policies and the specific NVP policies implemented in Australia.

The actual and anticipated effects of restrictions on flavoured electronic nicotine delivery systems: a scoping review.

OBJECTIVE: To synthesize the outcomes of policy evaluations of flavoured electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) restrictions. DATA SOURCES: PubMed, Scopus, Embase and Web of Science before May 3, 2022. STUDY SELECTION: Studies that report sales, behaviour, or compliance outcomes related to implemented or hypothetical ENDS flavour restrictions. DATA EXTRACTION: Restriction details, whether implemented or hypothetical, whether additional products were restricted, jurisdictional level, study locations, and outcomes classified by sales, behaviour, and compliance. DATA SYNTHESIS: We included 30 studies. Of those, 26 were conducted exclusively in the US, two in India, and two surveyed respondents in multiple countries, including the US. Twenty-one evaluated implemented restrictions, while nine considered hypothetical restrictions. Five studies evaluated product sales, 17 evaluated behaviour, and 10 evaluated compliance, with two studies reporting multiple outcomes. Two studies reported an increase and one a reduction in cigarette sales following restrictions, while three reported reductions in ENDS sales. Behavioural studies presented a mixed view of the impacts of regulations on ENDS and cigarette use. However, the use of disparate outcomes limits the comparability of studies. Studies of hypothetical restrictions suggest decreased ENDS use, increased cigarette use, and increased use of illicit markets. Studies of compliance with flavoured product restrictions that included ENDS found that 6-39% of stores sold restricted flavoured products post-restrictions. Online stores remain a potential source of restricted products. CONCLUSION: Our findings highlight the need for additional research on the impacts of ENDS restrictions. Research should further evaluate the impact of restrictions on youth and adult use of nicotine and tobacco products in addition to the effects of restrictions in countries beyond the US to enable a robust consideration of the harm-benefit trade-off of restrictions.

A Decision-Theoretic Public Health Framework for Heated Tobacco and Nicotine Vaping Products.

Markets for nicotine vaping products (NVPs) and heated tobacco products (HTPs) have grown as these products became positioned as harm-reduction alternatives to combusted tobacco products. Herein, we present a public health decision-theoretic framework incorporating different patterns of HTP, NVP, and cigarette use to examine their impacts on population health. Our framework demonstrates that, for individuals who would have otherwise smoked, HTP use may provide public health benefits by enabling cessation or by discouraging smoking initiation and relapse. However, the benefits are reduced if more harmful HTP use replaces less harmful NVP use. HTP use may also negatively impact public health by encouraging smoking by otherwise non-smokers or by encouraging initiation or relapse into smoking. These patterns are directly influenced by industry behavior as well as public policy towards HTPs, NVPs, and cigarettes. While substantial research has been devoted to NVPs, much less is known about HTPs. Better information is needed to more precisely define the health risks of HTPs compared to cigarettes and NVPs, the relative appeal of HTPs to consumers, and the likelihood of later transitioning to smoking or quitting all products. While our analysis provides a framework for gaining that information, it also illustrates the complexities in distinguishing key factors.

Health Effects of Electronic Cigarettes: An Umbrella Review and Methodological Considerations.

E-cigarettes are often marketed as a safer alternative to combustible cigarettes. However, their health effects, especially those associated with long-term use, remain largely uncertain. We conducted an umbrella review of the cardiopulmonary and carcinogenic risks of e-cigarette use, distinguishing between short-term and long-term health effects. The search for systematic reviews was conducted across four electronic databases through 25 January 2022. Methodological quality was assessed using the AMSTAR-2 quality appraisal tool. Seventeen systematic reviews, including five meta-analyses, were included in our umbrella review. There was a clear underreporting of e-cigarette devices and e-liquid types, e-cigarette and cigarette exposure, and the health and smoking status of study participants. Overall, the findings suggest that short-term use of e-cigarettes may be associated with acute cardiopulmonary risks, although to a lesser extent than cigarette use. Long-term e-cigarette use may have pulmonary/respiratory benefits in those who switch from chronic cigarette smoking, particularly in individuals with asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Evidence on intermediate and long-term carcinogenic effects is lacking. This umbrella review underscores the urgent need for systematic reviews with better adherence to established reporting guidelines, consistent definitions of duration of e-cigarette use, a focus on newer devices, and accounting for the impacts of former or current smoking.

An analysis of cigarette sales during Poland's menthol cigarette sales ban: small effects with large policy implications.

BACKGROUND: In May 2020, the European Union Tobacco Products Directive mandated that EU member states, including Poland, ban the sale of menthol cigarettes. With menthol making up 28% of cigarette sales before the ban, Poland is the country with likely the largest menthol cigarette sales share in the world to ban their sale. We analyze how this ban changed the Polish tobacco market. METHODS: We use monthly NielsenIQ data (May 2018-April 2021) on sales of cigarettes and roll-your-own tobacco by menthol and standard flavor in eight regions of Poland. We set up a bite-style regression model controlling for pre-ban menthol share, climate, border opening status, and Apple movement data to estimate the effect of the May 2020 menthol ban. RESULTS: We find menthol cigarette sales fell at least 97% after the menthol cigarette ban across Poland and standard cigarette sales replaced them. Regression modeling indicates that total cigarette sales fell, after the ban, an average of 2.2 sticks per capita per month, equal to a 2.9% decline, however, results were not significant (P = 0.199). The bite component of our model reveals total cigarette sales did decline significantly in the regions with the highest pre-ban menthol sales shares. Roll-your-own tobacco sales increased by a statistically insignificant 0.03 stick-equivalents after the ban (P = 0.798). Product prices also fell in the wake of the menthol ban. CONCLUSIONS: In Poland, the EU state with the one of the largest pre-ban menthol shares, we find mixed evidence that the ban is working as intended.

Public health impact of a US menthol cigarette ban on the non-Hispanic black population: a simulation study.

INTRODUCTION: With the US Food and Drug Administration recently proposing to implement a ban on menthol cigarettes, it is critical to estimate the potential public health effects of such a ban. With high rates of menthol cigarette use and important smoking-related health disparity implications, the impact of the ban on the non-Hispanic black (NHB) population merits strong consideration. METHODS: We apply the previously developed Menthol Smoking and Vaping Model to the NHB population. A status quo scenario is developed using NHB-specific population, smoking and vaping initiation, cessation and death rates. Estimates from a recent expert elicitation on behavioural impacts of a menthol cigarette ban on the NHB population are used to develop a menthol ban scenario implemented in 2021. The public health impacts of the menthol ban are estimated as the difference between smoking and vaping attributable deaths (SVADs) and life years lost (LYLs) in the status quo and the menthol ban scenarios from 2021 to 2060. RESULTS: Under the menthol ban scenario, overall smoking is projected to decline by 35.7% in 2026 and by 25.3% in 2060 relative to the status quo scenario. With these reductions, SVADs are estimated to fall by about 18.5% and LYLs by 22.1%, translating to 255 895 premature deaths averted, and 4.0 million life years gained over a 40-year period. CONCLUSIONS: A menthol cigarette ban will substantially reduce the smoking-associated health impact on the NHB population, thereby reducing health disparities.

The Impact of Current Tobacco Product Use Definitions on Estimates of Transitions Between Cigarette and ENDS Use.

INTRODUCTION: Definitions of current tobacco and nicotine delivery product use vary and depend on frequency of use, established-use criteria, and the product type. Previous research has not considered how transition rates between current use of different products depend on the current use definition. AIMS AND METHODS: We applied a multistate transition model to data on U.S. adults from waves 1-4 (2013-2017) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) study. We estimated transition rates between never, non-current, cigarette, electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS), and dual use states with and without established-use criteria (has smoked 100+ cigarettes in their lifetime; ever fairly regularly used ENDS) and different frequency thresholds (1+, 10+, 20+, and 30 days of the past 30 days). We considered use below a frequency threshold as either non-current use or a distinct, infrequent use category. RESULTS: When treating use below a frequency threshold as non-current use, transition probability estimates were largely robust to the choice of use frequency threshold, although sole ENDS users were more likely to transition to non-current use or dual use as the current use threshold increased. Removing the established-use criterion for ENDS reduced the estimates of sole ENDS and dual users staying in their use state. When treating infrequent use as a separate category, transition probability estimates were dependent on the use frequency threshold, particularly transitions among the dual use states. CONCLUSIONS: Product use definitions have important implications for assessing product use transitions and thus the public health implications of cigarette and ENDS control strategies. IMPLICATIONS: How we define "current use" of tobacco and nicotine delivery products changes our estimates of how individuals transition to, between, and from different patterns of use. We show that the robustness of transition estimates to whether or not non-established users are included as current users and to different frequency-of-use threshold depends in part on whether low-frequency users are categorized as non-current users or as a distinct category. Our results emphasize the importance of intentional definitions of product use that reflect the larger goals of public health and tobacco control.

Tobacco Couponing: A Systematic Review of Exposures and Effects on Tobacco Initiation and Cessation.

INTRODUCTION: Tobacco couponing continues to be part of contemporary tobacco marketing in the United States. We performed a systematic review of the evidence of tobacco product coupon receipt and redemption to inform regulation. AIMS AND METHODS: We searched EMBASE OVID and Medline databases for observational (cross-sectional and longitudinal) studies that examined the prevalence of tobacco coupon receipt and coupon redemption across different subpopulations, as well as studies of the association between coupon receipt and redemption with tobacco initiation and cessation at follow-up. We extracted unadjusted and adjusted odds ratios for the associations between coupon exposure (receipt, redemption) and tobacco use outcomes (initiation, cessation) and assessed each studies' potential risk of bias. RESULTS: Twenty-seven studies met the criteria for inclusion. Of 60 observations extracted, 37 measured coupon receipt, nine measured coupon redemption, eight assessed tobacco use initiation, and six assessed cessation. Tobacco product coupon receipt and redemption tended to be more prevalent among younger adults, women, lower education individuals, members of sexual and gender minorities, and more frequent tobacco users. Coupon receipt at baseline was associated with greater initiation. Coupon receipt and redemption at baseline were associated with lower cessation at follow-up among tobacco users. Results in high-quality studies did not generally differ from all studies. CONCLUSIONS: Tobacco product coupon receipt and redemption are often more prevalent among price-sensitive subpopulations. Most concerning, our results suggest coupon receipt may be associated with higher tobacco initiation and lower tobacco cessation. Couponing thereby increases the toll of tobacco use and could prove to be a viable public health policy intervention point. IMPLICATIONS: A systematic review was conducted of the scientific literature about the receipt, redemption, and effects on tobacco initiation and cessation of tobacco product couponing. This review found that tobacco coupons are more often received by price-sensitive persons and these coupons serve to increase tobacco initiation and decrease tobacco cessation. Policy efforts to address these consequences may help curb tobacco's harms and address health inequities.

The Kentucky SimSmoke Tobacco Control Policy Model of Smokeless Tobacco and Cigarette Use.

BACKGROUND: Smokeless tobacco (SLT) prevalence was decreasing in Kentucky before 2007, but has since increased. This study examines the impact of policies on cigarette and SLT use by applying the SimSmoke tobacco control policy simulation model. METHODS: Using data from the large-scale Tobacco Use Supplement of the Current Population Survey (TUS-CPS) and information on state-specific tobacco policies, Kentucky SimSmoke is updated and extended to incorporate exclusive SLT and dual cigarette and SLT use. The model is validated using survey data through 2017. The model was used to estimate the impact on smoking and SLT prevalence and attributable deaths of policies implemented between 1993 and 2018 and the impact of stronger future policies implemented in 2018 and maintained through 2060. RESULTS: SimSmoke generally reflects trends in exclusive cigarette use from the TUS-CPS and the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), but underestimated the increase in SLT prevalence in recent years. SimSmoke projects that policies implemented between 1993 and 2018 reduced male and female cigarette use by 23.7% and 23.0%, and male and female SLT use by 4.9% by 2018, averting 9018 tobacco-attributable deaths by 2018, increasing to 89 547 by 2060. The largest reductions in cigarette and SLT use were attributed to cigarette price increases. Strengthening tobacco control policies could reduce smoking prevalence by 41% and 40%, and reduce SLT prevalence by 33% and 25% for males and females by 2060. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that cigarette-oriented policies were effective in reducing SLT use but have been less successful in recent years. Future use rates can be further reduced through more restrictive statewide policies, which also target non-combustible nicotine products.

The Use of Expert Elicitation among Computational Modeling Studies in Health Research: A Systematic Review.

BACKGROUND: Expert elicitation (EE) has been used across disciplines to estimate input parameters for computational modeling research when information is sparse or conflictual. OBJECTIVES: We conducted a systematic review to compare EE methods used to generate model input parameters in health research. DATA SOURCES: PubMed and Web of Science. STUDY ELIGIBILITY: Modeling studies that reported the use of EE as the source for model input probabilities were included if they were published in English before June 2021 and reported health outcomes. DATA ABSTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Studies were classified as "formal" EE methods if they explicitly reported details of their elicitation process. Those that stated use of expert opinion but provided limited information were classified as "indeterminate" methods. In both groups, we abstracted citation details, study design, modeling methodology, a description of elicited parameters, and elicitation methods. Comparisons were made between elicitation methods. STUDY APPRAISAL: Studies that conducted a formal EE were appraised on the reporting quality of the EE. Quality appraisal was not conducted for studies of indeterminate methods. RESULTS: The search identified 1520 articles, of which 152 were included. Of the included studies, 40 were classified as formal EE and 112 as indeterminate methods. Most studies were cost-effectiveness analyses (77.6%). Forty-seven indeterminate method studies provided no information on methods for generating estimates. Among formal EEs, the average reporting quality score was 9 out of 16. LIMITATIONS: Elicitations on nonhealth topics and those reported in the gray literature were not included. CONCLUSIONS: We found poor reporting of EE methods used in modeling studies, making it difficult to discern meaningful differences in approaches. Improved quality standards for EEs would improve the validity and replicability of computational models. HIGHLIGHTS: We find extensive use of expert elicitation for the development of model input parameters, but most studies do not provide adequate details of their elicitation methods.Lack of reporting hinders greater discussion of the merits and challenges of using expert elicitation for model input parameter development.There is a need to establish expert elicitation best practices and reporting guidelines.

An Analysis of the Altria-Juul Labs Deal: Antitrust and Population Health Implications.

On December 19, 2018, Altria announced an offer of $12.8 billion for Juul Labs, combining the largest U.S. cigarette manufacturer with the largest U.S. e-cigarette company. This deal is currently being challenged by the Federal Trade Commission (FTC). We consider the antitrust implications. We also consider population health implications, which we argue are essential to a comprehensive analysis of the impact on consumers. Although the FTC antitrust investigation has focused on closed vaping systems, we argue that the relevant market is the broader nicotine delivery product market, which includes all vaping products along with tobacco products. With Altria having a large market share in the key nicotine delivery product submarkets and with important entry barriers, the merger potentially places Altria in a dominant position in the relevant market. In particular, competition in the vaping submarket is reduced, thereby likely to reduce the availability of less harmful alternatives to cigarettes.