Clinical trials and their impact on policy during COVID-19: a review.

Background: Of over 8,000 recorded randomised trials addressing COVID-19, around 80% were of treatments, and 17% have reported results. Approximately 1% were adaptive or platform trials, with 25 having results available, across 29 journal articles and 10 preprint articles. Methods: We conducted an extensive literature review to address four questions about COVID-19 trials, particularly the role and impact of platform/adaptive trials and lessons learned. Results: The key findings were: Q1. Social value in conducting trials and uptake into policy? COVID-19 drug treatments varied substantially and changed considerably, with drugs found effective in definitive clinical trials replacing unproven drugs. Dexamethasone has likely saved ½-2 million lives, and was cost effective across a range of countries and populations, whereas the cost effectiveness of remdesivir is uncertain. Published economic and health system impacts of COVID-19 treatments were infrequent. Q2. Issues with adaptive trial designs. Of the 77 platform trials registered, 6 major platform trials, with approximately 50 treatment arms, recruited ~135,000 participants with funding over $100 million. Q3. Models of good practice. Streamlined set-up processes such as flexible and fast-track funding, ethics, and governance approvals are vital. To facilitate recruitment, simple and streamlined research processes, and pre-existing research networks to coordinate trial planning, design, conduct and practice change are crucial to success. Q4. Potential conflicts to avoid? When treating patients through trials, balancing individual and collective rights and allocating scarce resources between healthcare and research are challenging. Tensions occur between commercial and non-commercial sectors, and academic and public health interests, such as publication and funding driven indicators and the public good. Conclusion: There is a need to (i) reduce small, repetitive, single centre trials, (ii) increase coordination to ensure robust research conducted for treatments, and (iii) a wider adoption of adaptive/platform trial designs to respond to fast-evolving evidence landscape.

Diagnostic performance of clinical prediction rules to detect group A beta-haemolytic streptococci in people with acute pharyngitis: a systematic review.

OBJECTIVE: To assess and compare the diagnostic performance of Clinical Prediction Rules (CPRs) developed to detect group A Beta-haemolytic streptococci in people with acute pharyngitis (or sore throat). STUDY DESIGN: A systematic review. METHODS: We searched PubMed, Embase and Web of Science (inception-September 2022) for studies deriving and/or validating CPRs comprised of ≥2 predictors from an individual's history or physical examination. Two authors independently screened articles, extracted data and assessed risk of bias in included studies. A meta-analysis was not possible due to heterogeneity. Instead we compared the performance of CPRs when they were validated in the same study population (head-to-head comparisons). We used a modified grading of recommendations, assessment, development, and evaluations (GRADE) approach to assess certainty of the evidence. RESULTS: We included 63 studies, all judged at high risk of bias. Of 24 derived CPRs, 7 were externally validated (in 46 external validations). Five validation studies provided data for head-to-head comparison of four pairs of CPRs. Very low certainty evidence favoured the Centor CPR over the McIsaac (2 studies) and FeverPain CPRs (1 study) and found the Centor CPR was equivalent to the Walsh CPR (1 study). The AbuReesh and Steinhoff 2005 CPRs had a similar poor discriminative ability (1 study). Within and between study comparisons suggested the performance of the Centor CPR may be better in adults (>18 years). CONCLUSION: Very low certainty evidence suggests a better performance of the Centor CPR. When deciding about antibiotic prescribing for pharyngitis patients, involving patients in a shared decision making discussion about the likely benefits and harms, including antibiotic resistance, is recommended. Further research of higher rigour, which compares CPRs across multiple settings, is needed.

Evidence for overdiagnosis in noncancer conditions was assessed: a metaepidemiological study using the 'Fair Umpire' framework.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the strength of the evidence for, and the extent of, overdiagnosis in noncancer conditions. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We systematically searched for studies investigating overdiagnosis in noncancer conditions. Using the 'Fair Umpire' framework to assess the evidence that cases diagnosed by one diagnostic strategy but not by another may be overdiagnosed, two reviewers independently identified whether a Fair Umpire-a disease-specific clinical outcome, a test result or risk factor that can determine whether an additional case does or does not have disease-was present. Disease-specific clinical outcomes provide the strongest evidence for overdiagnosis, follow-up or concurrent tests provide weaker evidence, and risk factors provide only weak evidence. Studies without a Fair Umpire provide the weakest evidence of overdiagnosis. RESULTS: Of 132 studies, 47 (36%) did not include a Fair Umpire to adjudicate additional diagnoses. When present, the most common Umpire was a single test or risk factor (32% of studies), with disease-specific clinical outcome Umpires used in only 21% of studies. Estimates of overdiagnosis included 43-45% of screen-detected acute abdominal aneurysms, 54% of cases of acute kidney injury, and 77% of cases of oligohydramnios in pregnancy. CONCLUSION: Much of the current evidence for overdiagnosis in noncancer conditions is weak. Application of the framework can guide development of robust studies to detect and estimate overdiagnosis in noncancer conditions, ultimately informing evidence-based policies to reduce it.

Antibiotics for acute otitis media in children.

BACKGROUND: Acute otitis media (AOM) is one of the most common diseases in childhood for which antibiotics are commonly prescribed; a systematic review reported a pooled prevalence of 85.6% in high-income countries. This is an update of a Cochrane Review first published in the Cochrane Library in 1997 and updated in 1999, 2005, 2009, 2013 and 2015. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effects of antibiotics for children with AOM. SEARCH METHODS: We searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, Current Contents, CINAHL, LILACS and two trial registers. The date of the search was 14 February 2023. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included randomised controlled trials comparing 1) antimicrobial drugs with placebo, and 2) immediate antibiotic treatment with expectant observation (including delayed antibiotic prescribing) in children with AOM. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently screened trials for inclusion and extracted data using the standard methodological procedures recommended by Cochrane. Our primary outcomes were: 1) pain at various time points (24 hours, two to three days, four to seven days, 10 to 14 days), and 2) adverse effects likely to be related to the use of antibiotics. Secondary outcomes were: 1) abnormal tympanometry findings, 2) tympanic membrane perforation, 3) contralateral otitis (in unilateral cases), 4) AOM recurrences, 5) serious complications related to AOM and 6) long-term effects (including the number of parent-reported AOM symptom episodes, antibiotic prescriptions and health care utilisation as assessed at least one year after randomisation). We used the GRADE approach to rate the overall certainty of evidence for each outcome of interest. MAIN RESULTS: Antibiotics versus placebo We included 13 trials (3401 children and 3938 AOM episodes) from high-income countries, which we assessed at generally low risk of bias. Antibiotics do not reduce pain at 24 hours (risk ratio (RR) 0.89, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.78 to 1.01; 5 trials, 1394 children; high-certainty evidence), or at four to seven days (RR 0.76, 95% CI 0.50 to 1.14; 7 trials, 1264 children), but result in almost a third fewer children having pain at two to three days (RR 0.71, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.88; number needed to treat for an additional beneficial outcome (NNTB) 20; 7 trials, 2320 children; high-certainty evidence), and likely result in two-thirds fewer having pain at 10 to 12 days (RR 0.33, 95% CI 0.17 to 0.66; NNTB 7; 1 trial, 278 children; moderate-certainty evidence). Antibiotics increase the risk of adverse events such as vomiting, diarrhoea or rash (RR 1.38, 95% CI 1.16 to 1.63; number needed to treat for an additional harmful outcome (NNTH) 14; 8 trials, 2107 children; high-certainty evidence). Antibiotics reduce the risk of children having abnormal tympanometry findings at two to four weeks (RR 0.83, 95% CI 0.72 to 0.96; NNTB 11; 7 trials, 2138 children), slightly reduce the risk of experiencing tympanic membrane perforations (RR 0.43, 95% CI 0.21 to 0.89; NNTB 33; 5 trials, 1075 children) and halve the risk of contralateral otitis episodes (RR 0.49, 95% CI 0.25 to 0.95; NNTB 11; 4 trials, 906 children). However, antibiotics do not reduce the risk of abnormal tympanometry findings at six to eight weeks (RR 0.89, 95% CI 0.70 to 1.13; 3 trials, 953 children) and at three months (RR 0.94, 95% CI 0.66 to 1.34; 3 trials, 809 children) or late AOM recurrences (RR 0.94, 95% CI 0.79 to 1.11; 6 trials, 2200 children). Severe complications were rare, and the evidence suggests that serious complications do not differ between children treated with either antibiotics or placebo. Immediate antibiotics versus expectant observation We included six trials (1556 children) from high-income countries. The evidence suggests that immediate antibiotics may result in a reduction of pain at two to three days (RR 0.53, 95% CI 0.35 to 0.79; NNTB 8; 1 trial, 396 children; low-certainty evidence), but probably do not reduce the risk of pain at three to seven days (RR 0.75, 95% CI 0.50 to 1.12; 4 trials, 959 children; moderate-certainty evidence), and may not reduce the risk of pain at 11 to 14 days (RR 0.91, 95% CI 0.75 to 1.10; 1 trial, 247 children; low-certainty evidence). Immediate antibiotics increase the risk of vomiting, diarrhoea or rash (RR 1.87, 95% CI 1.39 to 2.51; NNTH 10; 3 trials, 946 children; high-certainty evidence). Immediate antibiotics probably do not reduce the proportion of children with abnormal tympanometry findings at four weeks and evidence suggests that immediate antibiotics may not reduce the risk of tympanic membrane perforation and AOM recurrences. No serious complications occurred in either group. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: This review reveals that antibiotics probably have no effect on pain at 24 hours, a slight effect on pain in the days following and only a modest effect on the number of children with tympanic perforations, contralateral otitis episodes and abnormal tympanometry findings at two to four weeks compared with placebo in children with AOM. In high-income countries, most cases of AOM spontaneously remit without complications. The benefits of antibiotics must be weighed against the possible harms: for every 14 children treated with antibiotics, one child experienced an adverse event (such as vomiting, diarrhoea or rash) that would not have occurred if antibiotics were withheld. For most children with mild disease in high-income countries, an expectant observational approach seems justified. Therefore, clinical management should emphasise advice about adequate analgesia and the limited role for antibiotics.

Immunoglobulin treatment for hospitalised infants and young children with respiratory syncytial virus infection.

BACKGROUND: Millions of children are hospitalised due to respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection every year. Treatment is supportive, and current therapies (e.g. inhaled bronchodilators, epinephrine, nebulised hypertonic saline, and corticosteroids) are ineffective or have limited effect. Respiratory syncytial virus immunoglobulin may be used prophylactically to prevent hospital admission from RSV-related illness. It may be considered for the treatment of established severe RSV infection or for treatment in an immunocompromised host, although it is not licensed for this purpose. It is unclear whether immunoglobulins improve outcomes when used as a treatment for established RSV infection in infants and young children admitted to hospital. This is an update of a review first published in 2019. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effects of immunoglobulins for the treatment of RSV-proven lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) in children aged up to three years, admitted to hospital. SEARCH METHODS: For this 2022 update, we searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), which contains the Cochrane Acute Respiratory Infections Specialised Register, Ovid MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, and Web of Science (from inception to 2 December 2022) with no restrictions. We searched two trial registries for ongoing trials (to 2 December 2022) and checked the reference lists of reviews and included articles for additional studies. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised controlled trials comparing immunoglobulins with placebo in hospitalised infants and children aged up to three years with laboratory-diagnosed RSV lower respiratory tract infection. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently selected trials, assessed risk of bias, and extracted data. We assessed evidence certainty using GRADE. MAIN RESULTS: In total, we included eight trials involving 906 infants and children aged up to three years. We included one new trial in this update. The immunoglobulin preparations used in these trials included anti-RSV immunoglobulin and the monoclonal antibody preparations palivizumab and motavizumab. Five trials were conducted at single or multiple sites within a single high-income country (four in the USA, one in Qatar). Three trials included study sites in different countries. All three of these trials included study sites in one or more high-income countries (USA, Chile, New Zealand, Australia, Qatar), with two trials also including a study site in a middle-income country (Panama). Five of the eight trials were "supported" or "sponsored" by the trial drug manufacturers. The evidence is very uncertain about the effect of immunoglobulins on mortality (risk ratio (RR) 0.87, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.14 to 5.27; 4 studies, 309 participants). There were four deaths - two amongst 98 children receiving immunoglobulins, and two amongst 98 children receiving placebo. One additional death occurred in a fourth trial, however the study group of the child was not known and the data were not included in the analysis (very low-certainty evidence). The use of immunoglobulins in infants and children admitted to hospital with RSV proven LRTI probably results in little to no difference in the length of hospitalisation (mean difference (MD) -0.13 days, 95% CI -0.37 to 0.12; 6 studies, 737 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). Immunoglobulins may result in little to no difference in the number of children who experience one or more adverse events of any severity or seriousness compared to placebo (RR 1.18, 95% CI 0.78 to 1.78; 5 studies, 340 participants; low-certainty evidence) or the number of children who experience one or more adverse events judged by study investigators to be serious in nature, compared to placebo (RR 1.08, 95% CI 0.65 to 1.79; 4 studies, 238 participants; low-certainty evidence). Certainty of evidence for secondary outcomes was low. This evidence suggests that use of immunoglobulins results in little to no difference in the need for, or duration of, mechanical ventilation and the need for, or duration of, supplemental oxygen. The use of immunoglobulins does not reduce the need for admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) and when children are admitted to the ICU results in little to no difference in the duration of ICU stay. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: We are very uncertain about the effect of immunoglobulins on mortality. We are moderately certain that use of immunoglobulins in hospitalised infants and children may result in little to no difference in the length of hospitalisation. Immunoglobulins may result in little to no difference in adverse events, the need for or duration of mechanical ventilation, supplemental oxygen, or admission to the intensive care unit, though we are less certain about this evidence and the true effect of immunoglobulins on these outcomes may differ markedly from the estimated effect observed in this review. All trials were conducted in high-income countries, and data from populations in which the rate of death from RSV infection is higher are lacking.

Nondrug interventions for reducing SARS-CoV-2 transmission are frequently incompletely reported.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the completeness of reporting of behavioral, environmental, social and system interventions (BESSI) for reducing the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 evaluated in randomized trials, to obtain missing intervention details and to document the interventions assessed. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We assessed completeness of reporting in randomized trials of BESSI using the Template for Intervention Description and Replication (TIDieR) checklist. Investigators were contacted to provide missing intervention details and if provided, intervention descriptions were reassessed and documented according to the TIDieR items. RESULTS: Forty-five trials (planned or complete) describing 21 educational interventions, 15 protective measures, and nine social distancing interventions were included. In 30 trials with a protocol or study report, 30% (9/30) of interventions were completely described; this increased to 53% (16/30) after contacting 24 trial investigators (11 responded). Across all interventions, intervention provider training (35%) was the most frequently incompletely described checklist item, followed by the 'when and how much' intervention item. CONCLUSION: Incomplete reporting of BESSI is a substantial problem with essential information necessary for implementation of interventions and for building on existing knowledge frequently missing and unable to be obtained. Such reporting is an avoidable source of research waste.

A novel methodological framework was described for detecting and quantifying overdiagnosis.

OBJECTIVES: Methods to quantify overdiagnosis of screen detected cancer have been developed, but methods for quantifying overdiagnosis of noncancer conditions (whether symptomatic or asymptomatic) have been lacking. We aimed to develop a methodological framework for quantifying overdiagnosis that may be used for asymptomatic or symptomatic conditions and used gestational diabetes mellitus as an example of how it may be applied. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We identify two earlier definitions for overdiagnosis, a narrower prognosis-based definition and a wider utility-based definition. Building on the central importance of the concepts of prognostic information and clinical utility of a diagnosis, we consider the following questions: within a target population, do people found to have a disease using one diagnostic strategy but found not to have the disease using another diagnostic strategy (so called 'additional diagnoses'), have an increased risk of adverse clinical outcomes without treatment (prognosis evidence), and/or a decreased risk of adverse outcomes with treatment (utility evidence)? RESULTS: Using Causal Directed Acyclic Graphs and fair umpires, we illuminate the relationships between diagnostics strategies and the frequency of overdiagnosis. We then use the example of gestational diabetes mellitus to demonstrate how the Fair Umpire framework may be applied to estimate overdiagnosis. CONCLUSION: Our framework may be used to quantify overdiagnosis in noncancer conditions (and in cancer conditions) and to guide further studies on this topic.

The decisions and processes involved in a systematic search strategy: a hierarchical framework.

OBJECTIVE: The decisions and processes that may compose a systematic search strategy have not been formally identified and categorized. This study aimed to (1) identify all decisions that could be made and processes that could be used in a systematic search strategy and (2) create a hierarchical framework of those decisions and processes. METHODS: The literature was searched for documents or guides on conducting a literature search for a systematic review or other evidence synthesis. The decisions or processes for locating studies were extracted from eligible documents and categorized into a structured hierarchical framework. Feedback from experts was sought to revise the framework. The framework was revised iteratively and tested using recently published literature on systematic searching. RESULTS: Guidance documents were identified from expert organizations and a search of the literature and Internet. Data were extracted from 74 eligible documents to form the initial framework. The framework was revised based on feedback from 9 search experts and further review and testing by the authors. The hierarchical framework consists of 119 decisions or processes sorted into 17 categories and arranged under 5 topics. These topics are "Skill of the searcher," "Selecting information to identify," "Searching the literature electronically," "Other ways to identify studies," and "Updating the systematic review." CONCLUSIONS: The work identifies and classifies the decisions and processes used in systematic searching. Future work can now focus on assessing and prioritizing research on the best methods for successfully identifying all eligible studies for a systematic review.

Self-Management for Men With Lower Urinary Tract Symptoms: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PURPOSE: Lower urinary tract symptoms are very common in older men. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate the effects of self-management interventions on these symptoms. METHODS: We included randomized controlled trials comparing the effect of self-management interventions (alone or combined with drug therapy) with usual care or drug therapy alone in men with lower urinary tract symptoms. Two independent reviewers screened retrieved articles, extracted data, and assessed the risk of bias of included studies. The primary outcome was lower urinary tract symptom severity. Where data were available, we calculated mean differences (MDs) between the interventions. RESULTS: Analyses were based on 8 studies among 1,006 adult men. Seven of these studies were judged to be at high risk in 2 of the 7 domains of bias. The nature of the self-management interventions varied across studies. There was a clinically important reduction in the 35-point International Prostate Symptom Score at 6 months favoring self-management interventions compared with usual care (MD = -7.4; 95% CI, -8.8 to -6.1; 2 studies). The reduction in score with self-management was similar to that achieved with drug therapy at 6 to 12 weeks (MD = 0.0; 95% CI, -2.0 to 2.0; 3 studies). Self-management had a smaller, additional benefit at 6 weeks when added to drug therapy (MD = -2.3; 95% CI, -4.1 to -0.5; 1 study). CONCLUSIONS: We found moderate-quality evidence (suggesting reasonable certainty in estimates) for the effectiveness of self-management for treating lower urinary tract symptoms in men. We therefore recommend the use of self-management interventions for this patient population.

Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on utilisation of healthcare services: a systematic review.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the extent and nature of changes in utilisation of healthcare services during COVID-19 pandemic. DESIGN: Systematic review. ELIGIBILITY: Eligible studies compared utilisation of services during COVID-19 pandemic to at least one comparable period in prior years. Services included visits, admissions, diagnostics and therapeutics. Studies were excluded if from single centres or studied only patients with COVID-19. DATA SOURCES: PubMed, Embase, Cochrane COVID-19 Study Register and preprints were searched, without language restrictions, until 10 August, using detailed searches with key concepts including COVID-19, health services and impact. DATA ANALYSIS: Risk of bias was assessed by adapting the Risk of Bias in Non-randomised Studies of Interventions tool, and a Cochrane Effective Practice and Organization of Care tool. Results were analysed using descriptive statistics, graphical figures and narrative synthesis. OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcome was change in service utilisation between prepandemic and pandemic periods. Secondary outcome was the change in proportions of users of healthcare services with milder or more severe illness (eg, triage scores). RESULTS: 3097 unique references were identified, and 81 studies across 20 countries included, reporting on >11 million services prepandemic and 6.9 million during pandemic. For the primary outcome, there were 143 estimates of changes, with a median 37% reduction in services overall (IQR -51% to -20%), comprising median reductions for visits of 42% (-53% to -32%), admissions 28% (-40% to -17%), diagnostics 31% (-53% to -24%) and for therapeutics 30% (-57% to -19%). Among 35 studies reporting secondary outcomes, there were 60 estimates, with 27 (45%) reporting larger reductions in utilisation among people with a milder spectrum of illness, and 33 (55%) reporting no difference. CONCLUSIONS: Healthcare utilisation decreased by about a third during the pandemic, with considerable variation, and with greater reductions among people with less severe illness. While addressing unmet need remains a priority, studies of health impacts of reductions may help health systems reduce unnecessary care in the postpandemic recovery. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42020203729.

Improving the translation of search strategies using the Polyglot Search Translator: a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Searching for studies to include in a systematic review (SR) is a time- and labor-intensive process with searches of multiple databases recommended. To reduce the time spent translating search strings across databases, a tool called the Polyglot Search Translator (PST) was developed. The authors evaluated whether using the PST as a search translation aid reduces the time required to translate search strings without increasing errors. METHODS: In a randomized trial, twenty participants were randomly allocated ten database search strings and then randomly assigned to translate five with the assistance of the PST (PST-A method) and five without the assistance of the PST (manual method). We compared the time taken to translate search strings, the number of errors made, and how close the number of references retrieved by a translated search was to the number retrieved by a reference standard translation. RESULTS: Sixteen participants performed 174 translations using the PST-A method and 192 translations using the manual method. The mean time taken to translate a search string with the PST-A method was 31 minutes versus 45 minutes by the manual method (mean difference: 14 minutes). The mean number of errors made per translation by the PST-A method was 8.6 versus 14.6 by the manual method. Large variation in the number of references retrieved makes results for this outcome inconclusive, although the number of references retrieved by the PST-A method was closer to the reference standard translation than the manual method. CONCLUSION: When used to assist with translating search strings across databases, the PST can increase the speed of translation without increasing errors. Errors in search translations can still be a problem, and search specialists should be aware of this.

Legacy effect of delayed blood pressure lowering drug treatment in middle-aged adults with mildly elevated blood pressure: systematic review and meta-analysis.

To investigate if there is evidence for a 'legacy effect' for blood pressure (BP) lowering treatment, that is, worse health outcomes from not initiating drug treatment at a systolic BP threshold of 140 mmHg in middle-age adults. We systematically reviewed studies comparing the effects of delayed BP treatment (placebo/untreated during the trial or no previous treatment at trial entry) vs. early treatment (actively treated during the trial or previous BP treatment at trial entry) on mortality in the short term (5-year in-trial period) and long term (≥10 years in total period). The data were pooled using Peto ORs. A subgroup analysis by 10-year Framingham risk score was performed. Three studies (ALLHAT, Oslo and PREVEND-IT) involving 4746 participants were included. The results were heavily influenced by the ALLHAT trial. We found no significant difference in all-cause mortality between 'delayed BP' and 'early treatment' in the short-term OR 0.95 (95% CI 0.68-1.32) or long-term OR 0.90 (95% CI 0.78-1.04), with similar results for mortality from cardiovascular disease (CVD). The effects of delayed BP lowering treatment on long-term all-cause and CVD mortality did not vary with baseline risk of CVD. The review showed no clinically adverse 'legacy effect' on mortality or major CVD event from not treating middle-aged adults at a systolic BP threshold of 140 mmHg or over. The results were consistent for all CVD risk subgroups. Although these studies are non-randomised post-hoc analyses, they may allay concerns that early treatment of elevated systolic BP is necessary to prevent CVD events in primary prevention populations.

A review of changes to the attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder age of onset criterion using the checklist for modifying disease definitions.

BACKGROUND: Widening definitions of health conditions have the potential to affect millions of people and should only occur when there is strong evidence of benefit. In the last version of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM), the DSM-5 Committee changed the Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) age of onset criterion in two ways: raising the age of symptom onset and removing the requirement for symptoms to cause impairment. Given concerns about ADHD prevalence and treatment rates, we aimed to evaluate the evidence available to support these changes using a recently developed Checklist for Modifying Disease Definitions. METHODS: We identified and analysed research informing changes to the DSM-IV-TR ADHD age of onset criterion. We compared this evidence to the evidence recommended in the Checklist for Modifying Disease Definitions. RESULTS: The changes to the DSM-IV-TR age of onset criterion were based on a literature review (publicly available as a 2 page document with online table of included studies), which we appraised as at high risk of bias. Estimates of the change in ADHD prevalence resulting from change to the age of onset criterion were based on a single study that included only a small number of children with ADHD (n = 68) and only assessed the impact of change to the age component of the criterion. No evidence was used by, or available to the Committee regarding the impact on prevalence of removal of the requirement for impairment, or the effect of the criterion changes on diagnostic precision, the prognosis of, or the potential benefits or harms for individuals diagnosed by the new, but not old criterion. CONCLUSIONS: The changes to the age of onset criterion were based on minimal research evidence that suffered from either high risk of bias or poor applicability. The minimal documentation available makes it difficult to judge the rigor of the process behind the criterion changes. Use of the Checklist for Modifying Disease Definitions would assist future proposed modifications of the DSM ADHD criteria, provide guidance on the studies needed to inform potential changes and would improve the transparency and documentation of the process.

Immunoglobulin treatment for hospitalised infants and young children with respiratory syncytial virus infection.

BACKGROUND: Millions of children are hospitalised due to respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection every year. Treatment is supportive, and current therapies (e.g. inhaled bronchodilators, epinephrine, nebulised hypertonic saline, and corticosteroids) are ineffective or have limited effect. Respiratory syncytial virus immunoglobulin is sometimes used prophylactically to prevent hospital admission from RSV-related illness. It may be considered for the treatment of established severe RSV infection or for treatment in an immunocompromised host, although it is not licenced for this purpose. It is unclear whether immunoglobulins improve outcomes when used as a treatment for established RSV infection in infants and young children admitted to hospital.  OBJECTIVES: To assess the effects of immunoglobulins for the treatment of RSV-proven lower respiratory tract infections in children aged up to three years, admitted to hospital.  SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), which contains the Cochrane Acute Respiratory Infections Group's Specialised Register, Ovid MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, and Web of Science (from inception to 6 November 2018) with no restrictions. We searched two trial registries for ongoing trials (to 30 March 2018) and checked the reference lists of reviews and included articles for additional studies. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised controlled trials comparing immunoglobulins with placebo in hospitalised infants and children aged up to three years with laboratory-diagnosed RSV lower respiratory tract infection. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently selected trials, assessed risk of bias, and extracted data. We assessed evidence quality using GRADE. MAIN RESULTS: We included seven trials involving 486 infants and children aged up to three years. The immunoglobulin preparations used in these trials included anti-RSV immunoglobulin and the monoclonal antibody preparations palivizumab and motavizumab. We assessed the primary outcomes of mortality, length of hospital stay, and adverse events as providing low- or very low-certainty evidence due to risk of bias and imprecision. All trials were conducted at sites in high-income countries (USA, Chile, New Zealand, Australia), with two studies including a site in a middle-income country (Panama). Five of the seven studies were "supported" or "sponsored" by the trial drug manufacturers. We found no evidence of a difference between immunoglobulins and placebo for mortality (risk ratio (RR) 0.87, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.14 to 5.27; 3 trials; 196 children; 4 deaths; 2 deaths amongst 98 children receiving immunoglobulins, and 2 deaths amongst 98 children receiving placebo. One additional death occurred in a fourth trial, however, the study group of the child was not known and the data were not included in the analysis; very low-certainty evidence), and length of hospitalisation (mean difference -0.70, 95% CI -1.83 to 0.42; 5 trials; 324 children; low-certainty evidence). There was no evidence of a difference between immunoglobulins and placebo in adverse events of any severity or seriousness (reported in five trials) or serious adverse events (four trials) (RR for any severity 1.18, 95% CI 0.78 to 1.78; 340 children; low-certainty evidence, and for serious adverse events 1.08, 95% CI 0.65 to 1.79; 238 children; low-certainty evidence).We found no evidence of a significant difference between immunoglobulins and placebo for any of our secondary outcomes. We identified one ongoing trial. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: We found insufficient evidence of a difference between immunoglobulins and placebo for any review outcomes. We assessed the evidence for the effects of immunoglobulins when used as a treatment for RSV lower respiratory tract infection in hospitalised infants and young children as of low or very low certainty due to risk of bias and imprecision. We are uncertain of the effects of immunoglobulins on these outcomes, and the true effect may be substantially different from the effects reported in this review. All trials were conducted in high-income countries, and data from populations in which the rate of death from RSV infection is higher are lacking.

Prescribable mHealth apps identified from an overview of systematic reviews.

Mobile health apps aimed towards patients are an emerging field of mHealth. Their potential for improving self-management of chronic conditions is significant. Here, we propose a concept of "prescribable" mHealth apps, defined as apps that are currently available, proven effective, and preferably stand-alone, i.e., that do not require dedicated central servers and continuous monitoring by medical professionals. Our objectives were to conduct an overview of systematic reviews to identify such apps, assess the evidence of their effectiveness, and to determine the gaps and limitations in mHealth app research. We searched four databases from 2008 onwards and the Journal of Medical Internet Research for systematic reviews of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of stand-alone health apps. We identified 6 systematic reviews including 23 RCTs evaluating 22 available apps that mostly addressed diabetes, mental health and obesity. Most trials were pilots with small sample size and of short duration. Risk of bias of the included reviews and trials was high. Eleven of the 23 trials showed a meaningful effect on health or surrogate outcomes attributable to apps. In conclusion, we identified only a small number of currently available stand-alone apps that have been evaluated in RCTs. The overall low quality of the evidence of effectiveness greatly limits the prescribability of health apps. mHealth apps need to be evaluated by more robust RCTs that report between-group differences before becoming prescribable. Systematic reviews should incorporate sensitivity analysis of trials with high risk of bias to better summarize the evidence, and should adhere to the relevant reporting guideline.

Legacy Effect of Delayed Blood Pressure-Lowering Pharmacotherapy in Middle-Aged Individuals Stratified by Absolute Cardiovascular Disease Risk: Protocol for a Systematic Review.

BACKGROUND: Many national and international guidelines recommend that the initiation of blood pressure (BP)-lowering drug treatment for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) should no longer be based on BP level alone, but on absolute cardiovascular risk. While BP-lowering drug treatment is beneficial in high-risk individuals at any level of elevated BP, clinicians are concerned about legacy effects on patients with low-to-moderate risk and mildly elevated BP who remain "untreated". OBJECTIVE: We aim to investigate the legacy effect of delayed BP-lowering pharmacotherapy in middle-aged individuals (45-65 years) with mildly elevated BP (systolic BP 140-159 mmHg and/or diastolic BP 90-99 mmHg) stratified by absolute risk for primary prevention of CVD, but particularly in the low-risk (<10% five-year absolute risk) group. METHODS: Randomized trials of BP-lowering therapy versus placebo or pretreated subjects in active comparator studies with posttrial follow-up will be identified using a 2-step process. First, randomized trials of BP-lowering therapy will be identified by (1) retrieving the references of trials included in published systematic reviews of BP-lowering therapy, (2) retrieving studies published by the Blood Pressure Lowering Treatment Trialists' Collaboration (BPLTTC), and (3) checking studies referenced in the 1993 World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension meeting memorandum on BP management. Posttrial follow-up studies will then be identified by forward citation searching the randomized trials identified in step 1 through Web of Science. The search will include randomized controlled trials with at least 1-year in-trial period and a posttrial follow-up phase. Age is the major determinant of absolute cardiovascular risk, so the participants in our review will be restricted to middle-aged adults who are more likely to have a lower cardiovascular risk profile. The primary outcome will be all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes will include cardiovascular mortality, fatal stroke, fatal myocardial infarction, and death due to heart failure. RESULTS: The searches for existing systematic reviews and BPLTTC studies were piloted and modified. The study is expected to be completed before June 2018. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this study will contribute to the body of knowledge concerning the beneficial, neutral, or harmful effects of delayed BP-lowering drug treatment on the primary prevention of CVD in patients with mildly elevated BP and low-to-moderate CVD risk. TRIAL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews: CRD42017058414; https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/display_record.asp?ID=CRD42017058414 (Archived by WebCite® at http://www.webcitation.org/6t6sa8O2Q).

Systematic review of the effects of care provided with and without diagnostic clinical prediction rules.

BACKGROUND: Diagnostic clinical prediction rules (CPRs) are worthwhile if they improve patient outcomes or provide benefits such as reduced resource use, without harming patients. We conducted a systematic review to assess the effects of diagnostic CPRs on patient and process of care outcomes. METHODS: We searched electronic databases and a trial registry and performed citation and reference checks, for randomised trials comparing a diagnostic strategy with and without a CPR. Included studies were assessed for risk of bias and similar studies meta-analysed. RESULTS: Twenty-seven studies evaluating diagnostic CPRs for 14 conditions were included. A clinical management decision was the primary outcome in the majority of studies. Most studies were judged to be at high or uncertain risk of bias on ≥3 of 6 domains. Details of study interventions and implementation were infrequently reported.For suspected Group A Streptococcus throat infection, diagnostic CPRs reduced symptoms (1 study) and antibiotic prescriptions (5 studies, RR 0.86, 95% CI 0.75 to 0.99). For suspected cardiac chest pain, diagnostic strategies incorporating a CPR improved early discharge rates (1 study), decreased objective cardiac testing (1 study) and decreased hospitalisations (1 study). For ankle injuries, Ottawa Ankle Rules reduced radiography when used with clinical examination (1 study) but had no effect on length of stay as a triage test (1 study). For suspected acute appendicitis, CPRs had no effect on rates of perforated appendix (1 study) or the number of non-therapeutic operations (5 studies, RR 0.68, 95% CI 0.43 to 1.08). For suspected pneumonia, CPRs reduced antibiotic prescribing without unfavourable outcomes (3 studies). For children with possible serious bacterial infection, diagnostic CPRs did not improve process of care outcomes (3 studies). CONCLUSION: There are few randomised trials of diagnostic CPRs, and patient outcomes are infrequently reported. Diagnostic CPRs had a positive effect on process outcomes in some clinical conditions; however, many studies were at unclear or high risk of bias and the results may be context specific. Future studies should seek to detail how the CPR might alter the diagnostic pathway, report effects on both patient and process outcomes, and improve reporting of the study interventions and implementation. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The protocol for this review was not registered with PROSPERO, the international prospective register of systematic review protocols. The review was conceived and protocol prepared prior to the launch of PROSPERO in February 2011.

Simplification of a scoring system maintained overall accuracy but decreased the proportion classified as low risk.

OBJECTIVES: Scoring systems are developed to assist clinicians in making a diagnosis. However, their uptake is often limited because they are cumbersome to use, requiring information on many predictors, or complicated calculations. We examined whether, and how, simplifications affected the performance of a validated score for identifying adults with chest pain in an emergency department who have low risk of major adverse cardiac events. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We simplified the Emergency Department Assessment of Chest pain Score (EDACS) by three methods: (1) giving equal weight to each predictor included in the score, (2) reducing the number of predictors, and (3) using both methods--giving equal weight to a reduced number of predictors. The diagnostic accuracy of the simplified scores was compared with the original score in the derivation (n = 1,974) and validation (n = 909) data sets. RESULTS: There was no difference in the overall accuracy of the simplified versions of the score compared with the original EDACS as measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.74 to 0.75 for simplified versions vs. 0.75 for the original score in the validation cohort). With score cut-offs set to maintain the sensitivity of the combination of score and tests (electrocardiogram and cardiac troponin) at a level acceptable to clinicians (99%), simplification reduced the proportion of patients classified as low risk from 50% with the original score to between 22% and 42%. CONCLUSION: Simplification of a clinical score resulted in similar overall accuracy but reduced the proportion classified as low risk and therefore eligible for early discharge compared with the original score. Whether the trade-off is acceptable, will depend on the context in which the score is to be used. Developers of clinical scores should consider simplification as a method to increase uptake, but further studies are needed to determine the best methods of deriving and evaluating simplified scores.

A systematic review of studies comparing diagnostic clinical prediction rules with clinical judgment.

BACKGROUND: Diagnostic clinical prediction rules (CPRs) are developed to improve diagnosis or decrease diagnostic testing. Whether, and in what situations diagnostic CPRs improve upon clinical judgment is unclear. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We searched MEDLINE, Embase and CINAHL, with supplementary citation and reference checking for studies comparing CPRs and clinical judgment against a current objective reference standard. We report 1) the proportion of study participants classified as not having disease who hence may avoid further testing and or treatment and 2) the proportion, among those classified as not having disease, who do (missed diagnoses) by both approaches. 31 studies of 13 medical conditions were included, with 46 comparisons between CPRs and clinical judgment. In 2 comparisons (4%), CPRs reduced the proportion of missed diagnoses, but this was offset by classifying a larger proportion of study participants as having disease (more false positives). In 36 comparisons (78%) the proportion of diagnoses missed by CPRs and clinical judgment was similar, and in 9 of these, the CPRs classified a larger proportion of participants as not having disease (fewer false positives). In 8 comparisons (17%) the proportion of diagnoses missed by the CPRs was greater. This was offset by classifying a smaller proportion of participants as having the disease (fewer false positives) in 2 comparisons. There were no comparisons where the CPR missed a smaller proportion of diagnoses than clinical judgment and classified more participants as not having the disease. The design of the included studies allows evaluation of CPRs when their results are applied independently of clinical judgment. The performance of CPRs, when implemented by clinicians as a support to their judgment may be different. CONCLUSIONS: In the limited studies to date, CPRs are rarely superior to clinical judgment and there is generally a trade-off between the proportion classified as not having disease and the proportion of missed diagnoses. Differences between the two methods of judgment are likely the result of different diagnostic thresholds for positivity. Which is the preferred judgment method for a particular clinical condition depends on the relative benefits and harms of true positive and false positive diagnoses.