RESUMO
Tourism is shaped by a wide range of factors and forces, including exogenous ones that have no direct link with the tourism sector. Natural disasters and unexpected events are prime examples of such determining factors, as they have profound effects on individuals and society, and as a result have the potential to affect tourism flows considerably. Several theoretical arguments exist why natural disasters and unexpected events could influence tourist destination choices. However, empirical research to confirm the nature and extent of impacts of disasters on tourism is lacking. To address this gap, this paper incorporates a dataset on natural and man-made disaster events into a model of international tourism flows to evaluate the effect of different types of disasters on international arrivals at the national level. Findings provide evidence that the occurrence of different types of event change tourist flows to varying degrees. Although in some cases a positive effect is estimated, in general the impacts are negative, resulting in reduced tourist arrivals following an event. Understanding the relationship between disaster events and tourism is helpful for destination managers who make critical decisions in relation to recovery, reconstruction and marketing.
RESUMO
CONTEXT: For some countries, favourable climatic conditions for tourism are often associated with favourable conditions for infectious diseases, with the ensuing development constraints on the tourist sectors of impoverished countries where tourism's economic contribution has a high potential. This paper evaluates the economic implications of eradication of Malaria, Dengue, Yellow Fever and Ebola on the affected destination countries focusing on the tourist expenditures. METHODS: A gravity model for international tourism flows is used to provide an estimation of the impact of each travel-related disease on international tourist arrivals. Next the potential eradication of these diseases in the affected countries is simulated and the impact on tourism expenditures is estimated. FINDINGS: The results show that, in the case of Malaria, Dengue, Yellow Fever and Ebola, the eradication of these diseases in the affected countries would result in an increase of around 10 million of tourist worldwide and a rise in the tourism expenditure of 12 billion dollars. CONCLUSION: By analysing the economic benefits of the eradication of Dengue, Ebola, Malaria, and Yellow Fever for the tourist sector-a strategic economic sector for many of the countries where these TRD are present-this paper explores a new aspect of the quantification of health policies which should be taken into consideration in future international health assessment programmes. It is important to note that the analysis is only made of the direct impact of the diseases' eradication and consequently the potential multiplicative effects of a growth in the GDP, in terms of tourism attractiveness, are not evaluated. Consequently, the economic results can be considered to be skeleton ones.
