Understanding spatiotemporal patterns of COVID-19 incidence in Portugal: A functional data analysis from August 2020 to March 2022.

During the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, governments and public health authorities collected massive amounts of data on daily confirmed positive cases and incidence rates. These data sets provide relevant information to develop a scientific understanding of the pandemic's spatiotemporal dynamics. At the same time, there is a lack of comprehensive approaches to describe and classify patterns underlying the dynamics of COVID-19 incidence across regions over time. This seriously constrains the potential benefits for public health authorities to understand spatiotemporal patterns of disease incidence that would allow for better risk communication strategies and improved assessment of mitigation policies efficacy. Within this context, we propose an exploratory statistical tool that combines functional data analysis with unsupervised learning algorithms to extract meaningful information about the main spatiotemporal patterns underlying COVID-19 incidence on mainland Portugal. We focus on the timeframe spanning from August 2020 to March 2022, considering data at the municipality level. First, we describe the temporal evolution of confirmed daily COVID-19 cases by municipality as a function of time, and outline the main temporal patterns of variability using a functional principal component analysis. Then, municipalities are classified according to their spatiotemporal similarities through hierarchical clustering adapted to spatially correlated functional data. Our findings reveal disparities in disease dynamics between northern and coastal municipalities versus those in the southern and hinterland. We also distinguish effects occurring during the 2020-2021 period from those in the 2021-2022 autumn-winter seasons. The results provide proof-of-concept that the proposed approach can be used to detect the main spatiotemporal patterns of disease incidence. The novel approach expands and enhances existing exploratory tools for spatiotemporal analysis of public health data.

Water protection after tympanostomy (Shepard) tubes does not decrease otorrhea incidence - retrospective cohort study / Proteção contra a água após colocação de tubos de ventilação (Shepard) não diminui a incidência de otorreia - estudo retrospectivo de coorte

Abstract Introduction Myringotomy for tube insertion is the most common otologic surgery. Otorrhea is a frequent complication of this procedure and, to prevent it, most surgeons strongly recommend avoiding contact with water as this is thought to adversely impact on post-operative quality of life. Objective To understand the benefit of this recommendation. Methods Observational study - retrospective cohort study comparing the incidence of post-operative otorrhea and its impact on patients' quality of life, in two groups of patients comprising children under 10 years of age who underwent bilateral myringotomy and tube placement for chronic otitis media with effusion between May 2011 and May 2012. One group received water protection care after surgery, the other did not. Data was collected through telephonic interview, after one year of follow up (one year after the procedure). Water exposure without protection was considered the exposure event. Incidence of otorrhea and perceived impact on quality of life were the outcome measures. Results were compared after logistic regression. Results We included 143 children: 116 were not exposed to water without protection and 27 were exposed. In the not exposed group 36.2% had at least one episode of otorrhea, compared to 40.0% of the exposed group. Odds ratio for otorrhea on exposed was 1.21 (95% CI 0.51-2.85, p = 0.6). Negative impact on quality of life was reported by parents of 48.2% on the not exposed children, compared to 40.7% on the exposed group. This difference was not significant (p = 0.5). Conclusion We found that recommending water protection did not have beneficial effect on the incidence of otorrhea after myringotomy with tubes on chronic otitis media with effusion. However, such measures did not appear to have a negative impact on quality of life. This is a populational observational study with few cases (143 cases); these final statements would be better stated by a very large populational study with another large control group.

Resumo Introdução A miringotomia para inserção de tubo de ventilação é a cirurgia otológica mais comum. Otorreia é uma complicação frequente deste procedimento e, para evita-la, a maioria dos cirurgiões recomenda evitar o contato com a água, pois acredita-se que isso possa afetar negativamente a qualidade de vida pós-operatória. Objetivo Verificar o benefício dessa recomendação. Método Estudo observacional - estudo de coorte retrospectivo, comparando a incidência de otorreia pós-operatória e seu impacto na qualidade de vida dos pacientes, em dois grupos de pacientes com crianças menores de 10 anos submetidas à miringotomia bilateral e colocação de tubo de ventilação para o tratamento de otite média crônica com efusão, entre maio de 2011 e maio de 2012. Um grupo recebeu cuidados de proteção contra a água após a cirurgia, o outro não. Os dados foram coletados através de entrevista telefônica, após um ano de seguimento (um ano após o procedimento). A exposição à água sem proteção foi considerada o evento de exposição. A incidência de otorreia e o impacto percebido na qualidade de vida foram as medidas de resultado. Os resultados foram comparados após a regressão logística. Resultados Incluímos 143 crianças: 116 não foram expostas à água sem proteção e 27 foram expostas. No grupo não exposto, 36,2% apresentaram pelo menos um episódio de otorreia, em comparação com 40,0% do grupo exposto. A razão de chances (odds ratio) para otorreia no grupo exposto foi de 1,21 (IC 95%: 0,51-2,85, p = 0,6). O impacto negativo na qualidade de vida foi relatado pelos pais de 48,2% nas crianças não expostas, em comparação com 40,7% no grupo exposto. Essa diferença não foi significante (p = 0,5). Conclusão Não verificamos um efeito benéfico sobre a incidência de otorreia ao recomendar a proteção contra a água após colocação de tubos de ventilação para otite média com efusão. Entretanto, tais medidas não parecem ter tido um impacto negativo na qualidade de vida.

Meningioma and breast cancer: survival of patients with synchronous and metachronous meningioma and breast cancer.

The prognosis of the association between Breast Cancer (BC) and Meningioma (M) is unknown. To evaluate the survival impact of tumor exposure sequence in patients with both tumors. Patients were divided in groups according to the tumors sequence: BC before M (group 1), synchronous BC + M (group 2) and BC after M (group 3). The SEER database was used. Demographics, meningioma and breast cancer variables were analyzed. The primary outcome was oncological survival. A total of 1715 patients were included (median follow-up:84 months). Group 2 had the shortest survival (median:32 months) and group 1 the longest (median:110 months). On the unadjusted analysis, group 2 had the shortest survival (HR:3.13, 95% CI 1.62-6.04) and adjusted analysis confirmed this finding (HR 3.11, 95% CI 1.58-6.19), with no statistical difference between the metachronous tumors groups. Increasing age (HR:1.13, 95% CI 1.11-1.15, p < 0.005) and grade III meningioma (HR:4.51, 95% CI 1.90-10.69, p < 0.005) were related with lower survival. Meningioma treatment had no influence on the survival (p > 0.05). The association between surgery and radiotherapy in BC treatment improved the outcome (HR 0.37, 95% CI 0.23-0.93, p < 0.05). Grade III meningioma and receptor hormonal status influenced synchronous tumors (p < 0.05) but had no influence on metachronous tumors survival (p > 0.05) on stratified analysis. Synchronous tumors were associated with lower survival. Increasing age had a negative influence on patient survival. Although surgery and radiotherapy for breast cancer had a positive influence in the outcome, meningioma treatment was not related with survival. Grade III meningioma and hormonal receptor status only influenced synchronous tumors patient survival.

Manchester Triage System version II and resource utilisation in the emergency department.

Emergency department (ED) triage systems aim to direct the best clinical assistance to those who are in the greatest urgency and guarantee that resources are efficiently applied. The study's purpose was to determine whether the Manchester Triage System (MTS) second version is a useful instrument for determining the risk of hospital admission, intrahospital death and resource utilisation in ED and to compare it with the MTS first version. This was a prospective study of patients that attended the ED at a large hospital. It comprised a total of 25,218 cases that were triaged between 11 July and 13 October 2011. The MTS codes were grouped into two clusters: red and orange into a 'high acuity/priority' (HP) cluster, and yellow, green and blue into a 'low acuity/priority' cluster. The risk of hospital admission in the HP cluster was 4.86 times that of the LP cluster for both admission route and ages. The percentage of patient hospital admission between medical and surgical specialties, in high and low priority clusters, was similar. We found the risk of death in the HP cluster to be 5.58 times that of the risk of the low acuity/priority cluster. The MTS had an inconsistent association relative to the utilisation of x-ray, while it seemed to portray a consistent association between ECG and laboratory utilisation and MTS cluster. There were no differences between medical and surgical specialities risk of admission. This suggests that improvements were made in the second version of MTS, particularly in the discriminators of patients triaged to surgical specialties, because this was not true for the first version of MTS.