Heat waves and health risks in the northern part of Senegal: analysing the distribution of temperature-related diseases and associated risk factors.

The Sahelian zone of Senegal experienced heat waves in the previous decades, such as 2013, 2016 and 2018 that were characterised by temperatures exceeding 45°C for up to 3 successive days. The health impacts of these heat waves are not yet analysed in Senegal although their negative effects have been shown in many countries. This study analyses the health impacts of observed extreme temperatures in the Sahelian zone of the country, focusing on morbidity and mortality by combining data from station observation, climate model projections, and household survey to investigate heat wave detection, occurrence of climate-sensitive diseases and risk factors for exposure. To do this, a set of climatic (temperatures) and health (morbidity, mortality) data were collected for the months of April, May and June from 2009 to 2019. These data have been completed with 1246 households' surveys on risk factor exposure. Statistical methods were used to carry out univariate and bivariate analyses while cartographic techniques allowed mapping of the main climatic and health indicators. The results show an increase in temperatures compared to seasonal normal for the 1971-2000 reference period with threshold exceedances of the 90th percentiles (42°C) for the maxima and (27°C) the minima and higher temperatures during the months of May and June. From health perspective, it was noted an increase in cases of consultation in health facilities as well as a rise in declared morbidity by households especially in the departments of Kanel (17.7%), Ranérou (16.1 %), Matam (13.7%) and Bakel (13.7%). The heat waves of May 2013 were also associated with cases of death with a reported mortality (observed by medical staff) of 12.4% unequally distributed according to the departments with a higher number of deaths in Matam (25, 2%) and in Bakel (23.5%) than in Podor (8.4%) and Kanel (0.8%). The morbidity and mortality distribution according to gender shows that women (57%) were more affected than men (43%). These health risks have been associated with a number of factors including age, access to drinkable water, type of fuel, type of housing and construction materials, existence of fan and an air conditioner, and health history.The heat wave recurrence has led to a frequency in certain diseases sensitive to rising temperatures, which is increasingly a public health issue in the Sahelian zone of Senegal.

An assessment of the predictors of the dynamics in arable production per capita index, arable production and permanent cropland and forest area based on structural equation models.

This study sets out to verify the key predictors of the dynamics of the arable production per capita index, the arable production and permanent crop land and forest area at a national scale in Cameroon. To achieve this objective, data for twelve time series data variables spanning the period 1961-2000 were collected from Oxford University, the United Nations Development program, the World Bank, FAOSTAT and the World Resource Institute. The data were analysed using structural equation models (SEM) based on the two stage least square approach (2SLS). To optimize the results, variables that showed high correlations were dropped because they will not add any new information into the models. The results show that the arable production per capita index is impacted more by population while the influence of rainfall on the arable production per capita index is weak. Arable production and permanent cropland on its part has as the main predictor arable production per capita index. Forest area is seen to be more vulnerable to trade in forest products and logging than any other variable. The models presented in this study are quite reliable because the p and t values are consistent and overall, these results are consistent with previous studies.