Widespread deoxygenation of temperate lakes.

The concentration of dissolved oxygen in aquatic systems helps to regulate biodiversity1,2, nutrient biogeochemistry3, greenhouse gas emissions4, and the quality of drinking water5. The long-term declines in dissolved oxygen concentrations in coastal and ocean waters have been linked to climate warming and human activity6,7, but little is known about the changes in dissolved oxygen concentrations in lakes. Although the solubility of dissolved oxygen decreases with increasing water temperatures, long-term lake trajectories are difficult to predict. Oxygen losses in warming lakes may be amplified by enhanced decomposition and stronger thermal stratification8,9 or oxygen may increase as a result of enhanced primary production10. Here we analyse a combined total of 45,148 dissolved oxygen and temperature profiles and calculate trends for 393 temperate lakes that span 1941 to 2017. We find that a decline in dissolved oxygen is widespread in surface and deep-water habitats. The decline in surface waters is primarily associated with reduced solubility under warmer water temperatures, although dissolved oxygen in surface waters increased in a subset of highly productive warming lakes, probably owing to increasing production of phytoplankton. By contrast, the decline in deep waters is associated with stronger thermal stratification and loss of water clarity, but not with changes in gas solubility. Our results suggest that climate change and declining water clarity have altered the physical and chemical environment of lakes. Declines in dissolved oxygen in freshwater are 2.75 to 9.3 times greater than observed in the world's oceans6,7 and could threaten essential lake ecosystem services2,3,5,11.

Deeper waters are changing less consistently than surface waters in a global analysis of 102 lakes.

Globally, lake surface water temperatures have warmed rapidly relative to air temperatures, but changes in deepwater temperatures and vertical thermal structure are still largely unknown. We have compiled the most comprehensive data set to date of long-term (1970-2009) summertime vertical temperature profiles in lakes across the world to examine trends and drivers of whole-lake vertical thermal structure. We found significant increases in surface water temperatures across lakes at an average rate of + 0.37 °C decade-1, comparable to changes reported previously for other lakes, and similarly consistent trends of increasing water column stability (+ 0.08 kg m-3 decade-1). In contrast, however, deepwater temperature trends showed little change on average (+ 0.06 °C decade-1), but had high variability across lakes, with trends in individual lakes ranging from - 0.68 °C decade-1 to + 0.65 °C decade-1. The variability in deepwater temperature trends was not explained by trends in either surface water temperatures or thermal stability within lakes, and only 8.4% was explained by lake thermal region or local lake characteristics in a random forest analysis. These findings suggest that external drivers beyond our tested lake characteristics are important in explaining long-term trends in thermal structure, such as local to regional climate patterns or additional external anthropogenic influences.

Hotspots of biotic compositional change in lakes along vast latitudinal transects in northern Canada.

Ecotones mark zones of rapid change in ecological structure at various spatial scales. They are believed to be particularly susceptible to shifts caused by environmental transformation, making them key regions for studying the effects of global change. Here, we explored the variation in assemblage structure of aquatic primary producer and consumer communities across latitudinal transects in northeastern North America (Québec-Labrador) to identify spatial patterns in biodiversity that indicated the location of transition zones across the landscape. We analyzed species richness and the cumulative rate of compositional change (expressed as beta-diversity) of diatoms and chironomids to detect any abrupt shifts in the rate of spatial taxonomic turnover. We used principal coordinates analysis to estimate community turnover with latitude, then applied piecewise linear regression to assess the position of ecotones. Statistically significant changes in assemblage composition occurred at 52 and 55°N, corresponding to the transition between closed- and open-crown forest, and to the southern onset of the forest tundra (i.e., the forest limit), respectively. The spatial distribution of ecotones was most strongly related to air temperature for chironomids and to vegetation- and soil-related chemical attributes of lake water for diatoms, including dissolved organic carbon content and water color. Lakes at mid- to high-latitudes currently face pressures from rapidly rising temperatures, accompanied by large increases in organic carbon inputs from their catchments, often leading to browning and its associated effects. The biota at the base of food webs in lakes located in transition zones are disproportionately affected by the cascading effects of these multi-factorial changes, concurrent with pronounced terrestrial greening observed in these regions. Similar patterns of biotic shifts have been observed along alpine aquatic transects, indicating the potential for widespread restructuring of cold, high-altitude and high-latitude freshwater communities due to global change.

A new terrestrial palaeoenvironmental record from the Bering Land Bridge and context for human dispersal.

Palaeoenvironmental records from the now-submerged Bering Land Bridge (BLB) covering the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the present are needed to document changing environments and connections with the dispersal of humans into North America. Moreover, terrestrially based records of environmental changes are needed in close proximity to the re-establishment of circulation between Pacific and Atlantic Oceans following the end of the last glaciation to test palaeo-climate models for the high latitudes. We present the first terrestrial temperature and hydrologic reconstructions from the LGM to the present from the BLB's south-central margin. We find that the timing of the earliest unequivocal human dispersals into Alaska, based on archaeological evidence, corresponds with a shift to warmer/wetter conditions on the BLB between 14 700 and 13 500 years ago associated with the early Bølling/Allerød interstadial (BA). These environmental changes could have provided the impetus for eastward human dispersal at that time, from Western or central Beringia after a protracted human population standstill. Our data indicate substantial climate-induced environmental changes on the BLB since the LGM, which would potentially have had significant influences on megafaunal and human biogeography in the region.

Timing and causes of mid-Holocene mammoth extinction on St. Paul Island, Alaska.

Relict woolly mammoth (Mammuthus primigenius) populations survived on several small Beringian islands for thousands of years after mainland populations went extinct. Here we present multiproxy paleoenvironmental records to investigate the timing, causes, and consequences of mammoth disappearance from St. Paul Island, Alaska. Five independent indicators of extinction show that mammoths survived on St. Paul until 5,600 ± 100 y ago. Vegetation composition remained stable during the extinction window, and there is no evidence of human presence on the island before 1787 CE, suggesting that these factors were not extinction drivers. Instead, the extinction coincided with declining freshwater resources and drier climates between 7,850 and 5,600 y ago, as inferred from sedimentary magnetic susceptibility, oxygen isotopes, and diatom and cladoceran assemblages in a sediment core from a freshwater lake on the island, and stable nitrogen isotopes from mammoth remains. Contrary to other extinction models for the St. Paul mammoth population, this evidence indicates that this mammoth population died out because of the synergistic effects of shrinking island area and freshwater scarcity caused by rising sea levels and regional climate change. Degradation of water quality by intensified mammoth activity around the lake likely exacerbated the situation. The St. Paul mammoth demise is now one of the best-dated prehistoric extinctions, highlighting freshwater limitation as an overlooked extinction driver and underscoring the vulnerability of small island populations to environmental change, even in the absence of human influence.

Small changes in climate can profoundly alter the dynamics and ecosystem services of tropical crater lakes.

African tropical lakes provide vital ecosystem services including food and water to some of the fastest growing human populations, yet they are among the most understudied ecosystems in the world. The consequences of climate change and other stressors on the tropical lakes of Africa have been informed by long-term analyses, but these studies have largely focused on the massive Great Rift Valley lakes. Our objective was to evaluate how recent climate change has altered the functioning and services of smaller tropical lakes, which are far more abundant on the landscape. Based on a paired analysis of 20 years of high-resolution water column data and a paleolimnological record from a small crater lake in western Uganda, we present evidence that even a modest warming of the air (∼0.9°C increase over 20 years) and changes in the timing and intensity of rainfall can have significant consequences on the dynamics of this common tropical lake type. For example, we observed a significant nonlinear increase (R(2) adj  = 0.23, e.d.f. = 7, p<0.0001) in thermal stability over the past 20 years. This resulted in the expansion of anoxic waters and consequent deterioration of fish habitat and appears to have abated primary production; processes that may impair ecosystem services for a vulnerable human population. This study on a system representative of small tropical crater lakes highlights the far-reaching effects of global climatic change on tropical waters. Increased research efforts into tropical aquatic ecosystem health and the development of sound management practices are necessary in order to strengthen adaptive capabilities in tropical regions.

Quantifying recent ecological changes in remote lakes of North America and Greenland using sediment diatom assemblages.

BACKGROUND: Although arctic lakes have responded sensitively to 20(th)-century climate change, it remains uncertain how these ecological transformations compare with alpine and montane-boreal counterparts over the same interval. Furthermore, it is unclear to what degree other forcings, including atmospheric deposition of anthropogenic reactive nitrogen (Nr), have participated in recent regime shifts. Diatom-based paleolimnological syntheses offer an effective tool for retrospective assessments of past and ongoing changes in remote lake ecosystems. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We synthesized 52 dated sediment diatom records from lakes in western North America and west Greenland, spanning broad latitudinal and altitudinal gradients, and representing alpine (n = 15), arctic (n = 20), and forested boreal-montane (n = 17) ecosystems. Diatom compositional turnover (beta-diversity) during the 20(th) century was estimated using Detrended Canonical Correspondence Analysis (DCCA) for each site and compared, for cores with sufficiently robust chronologies, to both the 19(th) century and the prior approximately 250 years (Little Ice Age). For both arctic and alpine lakes, beta-diversity during the 20(th) century is significantly greater than the previous 350 years, and increases with both latitude and altitude. Because no correlation is apparent between 20(th)-century diatom beta-diversity and any single physical or limnological parameter (including lake and catchment area, maximum depth, pH, conductivity, [NO(3)(-)], modeled Nr deposition, ambient summer and winter air temperatures, and modeled temperature trends 1948-2008), we used Principal Components Analysis (PCA) to summarize the amplitude of recent changes in relationship to lake pH, lake:catchment area ratio, modeled Nr deposition, and recent temperature trends. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The ecological responses of remote lakes to post-industrial environmental changes are complex. However, two regions reveal concentrations of sites with elevated 20(th)-century diatom beta-diversity: the Arctic where temperatures are increasing most rapidly, and mid-latitude alpine lakes impacted by high Nr deposition rates. We predict that remote lakes will continue to shift towards new ecological states in the Anthropocene, particularly in regions where these two forcings begin to intersect geographically.

Climate-driven regime shifts in the biological communities of arctic lakes.

Fifty-five paleolimnological records from lakes in the circumpolar Arctic reveal widespread species changes and ecological reorganizations in algae and invertebrate communities since approximately anno Domini 1850. The remoteness of these sites, coupled with the ecological characteristics of taxa involved, indicate that changes are primarily driven by climate warming through lengthening of the summer growing season and related limnological changes. The widespread distribution and similar character of these changes indicate that the opportunity to study arctic ecosystems unaffected by human influences may have disappeared.