Accounting for variability when resurrecting dormant propagules substantiates their use in eco-evolutionary studies.

There has been a steady rise in the use of dormant propagules to study biotic responses to environmental change over time. This is particularly important for organisms that strongly mediate ecosystem processes, as changes in their traits over time can provide a unique snapshot into the structure and function of ecosystems from decades to millennia in the past. Understanding sources of bias and variation is a challenge in the field of resurrection ecology, including those that arise because often-used measurements like seed germination success are imperfect indicators of propagule viability. Using a Bayesian statistical framework, we evaluated sources of variability and tested for zero-inflation and overdispersion in data from 13 germination trials of soil-stored seeds of Schoenoplectus americanus, an ecosystem engineer in coastal salt marshes in the Chesapeake Bay. We hypothesized that these two model structures align with an ecological understanding of dormancy and revival: zero-inflation could arise due to failed germinations resulting from inviability or failed attempts to break dormancy, and overdispersion could arise by failing to measure important seed traits. A model that accounted for overdispersion, but not zero-inflation, was the best fit to our data. Tetrazolium viability tests corroborated this result: most seeds that failed to germinate did so because they were inviable, not because experimental methods failed to break their dormancy. Seed viability declined exponentially with seed age and was mediated by seed provenance and experimental conditions. Our results provide a framework for accounting for and explaining variability when estimating propagule viability from soil-stored natural archives which is a key aspect of using dormant propagules in eco-evolutionary studies.

A century-long record of plant evolution reconstructed from a coastal marsh seed bank.

Evidence is mounting that climate-driven shifts in environmental conditions can elicit organismal evolution, yet there are sparingly few long-term records that document the tempo and progression of responses, particularly for plants capable of transforming ecosystems. In this study, we "resurrected" cohorts of a foundational coastal marsh sedge (Schoenoplectus americanus) from a time-stratified seed bank to reconstruct a century-long record of heritable variation in response to salinity exposure. Common-garden experiments revealed that S. americanus exhibits heritable variation in phenotypic traits and biomass-based measures of salinity tolerance. We found that responses to salinity exposure differed among the revived cohorts, with plants from the early 20th century exhibiting greater salinity tolerance than those from the mid to late 20th century. Fluctuations in salinity tolerance could reflect stochastic variation but a congruent record of genotypic variation points to the alternative possibility that the loss and gain in functionality are driven by selection, with comparisons to historical rainfall and paleosalinity records suggesting that selective pressures vary according to shifting estuarine conditions. Because salinity tolerance in S. americanus is tightly coupled to primary productivity and other vital ecosystem attributes, these findings indicate that organismal evolution merits further consideration as a factor shaping coastal marsh responses to climate change.

Applied use of alternate stable state modeling in restoration ecology.

The concept of alternate stable states is important in ecological theory and models, but the application and implementation of these models have the potential to make significant future advances in the field of patterned landscapes. The bistable ridge and slough landscape is a central feature of Everglades restoration and provides an important opportunity to test stable state theory with multistate transition models. We used these models to estimate environmental parameters associated with state changes (water depths, edaphic factors, etc.) and develop a quantitative method to measure resilience and stability. The multistate model indicates that long-term, local hydrology (15-yr mean maximums and 15-yr mean amplitude) and edaphic factors control the local scale shifts between ridge and slough states. We show that multistate models can provide hydrologic envelopes for managers, produce a tool to help assess future water management scenarios, and address issues of sustainability, resilience, and restoration for any bistable system.

A century of genetic variation inferred from a persistent soil-stored seed bank.

Stratigraphic accretion of dormant propagules in soil can result in natural archives useful for studying ecological and evolutionary responses to environmental change. Few attempts have been made, however, to use soil-stored seed banks as natural archives, in part because of concerns over nonrandom attrition and mixed stratification. Here, we examine the persistent seed bank of Schoenoplectus americanus, a foundational brackish marsh sedge, to determine whether it can serve as a resource for reconstructing historical records of demographic and population genetic variation. After assembling profiles of the seed bank from radionuclide-dated soil cores, we germinated seeds to "resurrect" cohorts spanning the 20th century. Using microsatellite markers, we assessed genetic diversity and differentiation among depth cohorts, drawing comparisons to extant plants at the study site and in nearby and more distant marshes. We found that seed density peaked at intermediate soil depths. We also detected genotypic differences among cohorts as well as between cohorts and extant plants. Genetic diversity did not decline with depth, indicating that the observed pattern of differentiation is not due to attrition. Patterns of differentiation within and among extant marshes also suggest that local populations persist as aggregates of small clones, likely reflecting repeated seedling recruitment and low immigration from admixed regional gene pools. These findings indicate that persistent and stratified soil-stored seed banks merit further consideration as resources for reconstructing decadal- to century-long records that can lend insight into the tempo and nature of ecological and evolutionary processes that shape populations over time.