The impacts of climate change on nitrogen losses to the environment in Austria: A dual model analysis across spatial and temporal scales to support policy decisions.

The amounts and pathways of reactive nitrogen (Nr) losses in Austria into the surface water, soil, and atmosphere were determined under four climate change scenarios for the period 2041-2070. Two nutrient models were used to undertake the analysis at two different scales. Firstly, a semi-empirical, conceptual model (MONERIS) was setup for Austria to calculate the overall annual Nr surpluses, categorise flows of Nr, and identify regional hotspots of Nr losses. Secondly, a physically based eco-hydrological model (SWAT) was setup in three agricultural catchments to determine the hydrological processes related to Nr transport and quantify the amounts transported by various pathways in cropland at a detailed spatial and temporal resolution. The agricultural N surplus calculations for Austria were revised and used as input data for both models. The MONERIS and SWAT simulated inorganic N loads transported into waterbodies are overall similar, with average differences for the subsurface inorganic N loads of ±3 kg ha-1 yr-1 and for surface inorganic N loads of +0.4 to -0.03 kg ha-1 yr-1. Crop level N losses under future climate scenarios was contingent upon the fertilizer type, the crop grown and its accumulated biomass, as well as the type of climate scenario (wet or dry). In the SWAT model, an examination of the sensitivity of the input data (climate data and parameter values) found the dominant contribution to the sensitivity of simulated monthly discharge was from the climate data (69 % to 98 %). For simulating N loads, the climate scenarios contributed 30 % to 89 % of the sensitivity. Simulating Nr flows under climate scenarios is policy relevant to assess critical areas of N losses and identify future N transport pathways. Using a dual-model approach saves on resources required to set up a complex, data intensive model at a large scale, and can focus on critical catchments in detail.

Regional nitrogen budgets of agricultural production systems in Austria constrained by natural boundary conditions.

Nitrogen (N) budgets are valuable tools to increase the understanding of causalities between agricultural production and N emissions to support agri-environmental policy instruments. However, regional agricultural N budgets for an entire country covering all major N flows across sectors and environmental compartments, which also distinguish between different N forms, are largely lacking. This study comprehensively analyses regional differences in N budgets pertainting to agricultural production and consumption in the largely alpine and spatially heterogeneous country of Austria. A special focus is on the interconnections between regional agricultural production systems, N emissions, nitrogen use efficiencies (NUE), and natural boundary conditions. Seven regional and one national balance are undertaken via material flow analysis and are analysed with regards to losses into soils, water bodies and atmosphere. Further, NUE is calculated for two conceptual systems of plant and plant-livestock production. The results reveal major differences among regions, with significant implications for agri-environmental management. The high-alpine region, characterized by alpine pastures with a low livestock density, shows consequent low N inputs, the lowest area-specific N outputs and the most inefficient NUE. In contrast, the highest NUE is achieved in a lowland region specialized in arable farming with a low livestock density and a predominance of mineral fertilizer over manure application. In this region, the N surplus is almost as low as in the high-alpine region due to both significantly higher N inputs and outputs compared to the high-alpine region. Nevertheless, due to low precipitation levels, widespread exceedances of the nitrate target level concentration take place in the groundwater. The same issue arises in another non-alpine region characterized by arable farming and high livestock densities. Here, the highest N inputs, primarily via manure, result in the highest N surplus and related nitrate groundwater exceedances despite an acceptable NUE. These examples show that NUE alone is an insufficient target and that adapted criteria are needed for different regions to consider natural constraints and specific framework conditions. In a geographically heterogeneous country like Austria, the regional circumstances strongly define and limit the scope and the potential effectiveness of agricultural N management strategies. These aspects should be integrated into the design, assessment and implementation of agri-environmental programmes.

Dynamic soil functions assessment employing land use and climate scenarios at regional scale.

Soils as key component of terrestrial ecosystems are under increasing pressures. As an advance to current static assessments, we present a dynamic soil functions assessment (SFA) to evaluate the current and future state of soils regarding their nutrient storage, water regulation, productivity, habitat and carbon sequestration functions for the case-study region in the Lower Austrian Mostviertel. Carbon response functions simulating the development of regional soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks until 2100 are used to couple established indicator-based SFA methodology with two climate and three land use scenarios, i.e. land sparing (LSP), land sharing (LSH), and balanced land use (LBA). Results reveal a dominant impact of land use scenarios on soil functions compared to the impact from climate scenarios and highlight the close link between SOC development and the quality of investigated soil functions, i.e. soil functionality. The soil habitat and soil carbon sequestration functions on investigated agricultural land are positively affected by maintenance of grassland under LSH (20% of the case-study region), where SOC stocks show a steady and continuous increase. By 2100 however, total regional SOC stocks are higher under LSP compared to LSH or LBA, due to extensive afforestation. The presented approach may improve integrative decision-making in land use planning processes. It bridges superordinate goals of sustainable development, such as climate change mitigation, with land use actions taken at local or regional scales. The dynamic SFA broadens the debate on LSH and LSP and can reduce trade-offs between soil functions through land use planning processes.

Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture and food systems: The Eur-Agri-SSPs.

Scenarios describe plausible and internally consistent views of the future. They can be used by scientists, policymakers and entrepreneurs to explore the challenges of global environmental change given an appropriate level of spatial and sectoral detail and systematic development. We followed a nine-step protocol to extend and enrich a set of global scenarios - the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) - providing regional and sectoral detail for European agriculture and food systems using a one-to-one nesting participatory approach. The resulting five Eur-Agri-SSPs are titled (1) Agriculture on sustainable paths, (2) Agriculture on established paths, (3) Agriculture on separated paths, (4) Agriculture on unequal paths, and (5) Agriculture on high-tech paths. They describe alternative plausible qualitative evolutions of multiple drivers of particular importance and high uncertainty for European agriculture and food systems. The added value of the protocol-based storyline development process lies in the conceptual and methodological transparency and rigor; the stakeholder driven selection of the storyline elements; and consistency checks within and between the storylines. Compared to the global SSPs, the five Eur-Agri-SSPs provide rich thematic and regional details and are thus a solid basis for integrated assessments of agriculture and food systems and their response to future socio-economic and environmental changes.

Exploring farmers' behavior toward individual and collective measures of Western Corn Rootworm control - A case study in south-east Austria.

Invasive species are considered a major threat for global agricultural production, biodiversity and ecosystem services. Their spread and establishment is mainly influenced by bio-physical factors, but also by people's activities such as tourism or farming. Understanding farmers' behavior is necessary to develop effective control measures. We conducted qualitative semi-structured interviews in south-east Austria to explore factors that facilitate or impede farmers' behavior to individually or collectively control the invasive Western Corn Rootworm (WCR, Diabrotica virgifera virgifera). We analyze the interview contents using the Capability-Opportunity-Motivation-Behavior model (COM-B model). Our results show that farmers' motivation and related behavior is influenced by intra- and interpersonal factors such as their knowledge about WCR control measures (capability psychological), perceived societal acceptance of WCR control measures or perceived normative obligations to participate in collective measures (opportunity social). Farmers' motivation (reflective and automatic) for implementing individual or collective WCR control measures is mainly determined by their perceived self-efficacy, their perceived efficacy of WCR control measures and the perceived severity of WCR damages. Contextual factors such as environmental conditions, legal regulations, the landscape composition, the farm type or financial impacts of WCR control measures (opportunity physical) are essential prerequisites for farmers' behavior. The results suggest that new modes of knowledge transfer are required to facilitate the proactive implementation of individual and collective WCR control measures prior to trigger events, such as severe WCR damages. The development of a trusting and communicative environment between farmers is key for collective WCR control. Exchange with residents about WCR and applied control measures may help to create a shared understanding and increase societal acceptance. Moreover, a long-term and proactive coordination which meets individual famers' needs is required to implement collective WCR control measures. Farmers who have successfully implemented individual and collective WCR measures may encourage non-applicants and sceptics by "learning from peers".

A protocol to develop Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture.

Moving towards a more sustainable future requires concerted actions, particularly in the context of global climate change. Integrated assessments of agricultural systems (IAAS) are considered valuable tools to provide sound information for policy and decision-making. IAAS use storylines to define socio-economic and environmental framework assumptions. While a set of qualitative global storylines, known as the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), is available to inform integrated assessments at large scales, their spatial resolution and scope is insufficient for regional studies in agriculture. We present a protocol to operationalize the development of Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture - Eur-Agri-SSPs - to support IAAS. The proposed design of the storyline development process is based on six quality criteria: plausibility, vertical and horizontal consistency, salience, legitimacy, richness and creativity. Trade-offs between these criteria may occur. The process is science-driven and iterative to enhance plausibility and horizontal consistency. A nested approach is suggested to link storylines across scales while maintaining vertical consistency. Plausibility, legitimacy, salience, richness and creativity shall be stimulated in a participatory and interdisciplinary storyline development process. The quality criteria and process design requirements are combined in the protocol to increase conceptual and methodological transparency. The protocol specifies nine working steps. For each step, suitable methods are proposed and the intended level and format of stakeholder engagement are discussed. A key methodological challenge is to link global SSPs with regional perspectives provided by the stakeholders, while maintaining vertical consistency and stakeholder buy-in. We conclude that the protocol facilitates systematic development and evaluation of storylines, which can be transferred to other regions, sectors and scales and supports inter-comparisons of IAAS.

Exploring Farmers' Climate Change Perceptions and Adaptation Intentions: Empirical Evidence from Austria.

The lack of timely adaptation in agriculture may hamper prosperous farm developments by neglecting risks and opportunities emerging from climate change. Understanding farmers' perceptual and socio-cognitive processes is key in order to encourage on-farm adaptation. We aim at investigating how farmers' individual cognition on climate change and adaptation as well as socio-environmental context factors affect agricultural adaptation intention and avoidance. We build on the Model of Private Proactive Adaptation to Climate Change (MPPACC) and apply a qualitative interview approach in two Austrian farming regions. Twenty semi-structured interviews have been conducted with 29 farmers. Based on the results of the qualitative content analysis, we have identified four groups of farmers, which differ in the formation process of adaptation intention and avoidance: (i) climate change adaptors, (ii) integrative adaptors, (iii) cost-benefit calculators, and (iv) climate change fatalists. Farmers who are part of groups (i)-(iii) form adaptation intentions, whereas climate change fatalists do not intend to adapt. According to our analysis, adaptation intentions are only formed if farmers are aware of effective adaptation measures, accept personal responsibility for their farms, and evaluate adaptation costs positively (i.e. adaptation appraisal). Farmers' climate change appraisal as well as farm and regional characteristics are also perceived relevant for farmers' adaptation decisions but seem to be less important than adaptation appraisal. Therefore, we conclude that engagement strategies and outreach efforts need not only address risks and opportunities, but should also strengthen farmers' self-responsibility and offer adaptation measures tailored to the regional characteristics and the farmers' needs.

Developing stakeholder-driven scenarios on land sharing and land sparing - Insights from five European case studies.

Empirical research on land sharing and land sparing has been criticized because preferences of local stakeholders, socio-economic aspects, a bundle of ecosystem services and the local context were only rarely integrated. Using storylines and scenarios is a common approach to include land use drivers and local contexts or to cope with the uncertainties of future developments. The objective of the presented research is to develop comparable participatory regional land use scenarios for the year 2030 reflecting land sharing, land sparing and more intermediate developments across five different European landscapes (Austria, Germany, Switzerland, The Netherlands and Spain). In order to ensure methodological consistency among the five case studies, a hierarchical multi-scale scenario approach was developed, which consisted of i) the selection of a common global storyline to frame a common sphere of uncertainty for all case studies, ii) the definition of three contrasting qualitative European storylines (representing developments for land sharing, land sparing and a balanced storyline), and iii) the development of three explorative case study-specific land use scenarios with regional stakeholders in workshops. Land use transition rules defined by stakeholders were used to generate three different spatially-explicit scenarios for each case study by means of high-resolution land use maps. All scenarios incorporated various aspects of land use and management to allow subsequent quantification of multiple ecosystem services and biodiversity indicators. The comparison of the final scenarios showed both common as well as diverging trends among the case studies. For instance, stakeholders identified further possibilities to intensify land management in all case studies in the land sparing scenario. In addition, in most case studies stakeholders agreed on the most preferred scenario, i.e. either land sharing or balanced, and the most likely one, i.e. balanced. However, they expressed some skepticism regarding the general plausibility of land sparing in a European context. It can be concluded that stakeholder perceptions and the local context can be integrated in land sharing and land sparing contexts subject to particular process design principles.

Impacts of global warming on confined livestock systems for growing-fattening pigs: simulation of heat stress for 1981 to 2017 in Central Europe.

In the mid-latitudes, pigs and poultry are kept predominantly in confined livestock buildings with a mechanical ventilation system. In the last decades, global warming has already been a challenge which causes hat stress for animals in such systems. Heat stress inside livestock buildings was assessed by a simulation model for the indoor climate, which is driven by meteorological parameters. Besides the meteorological conditions, the thermal environment inside the building depends on the sensible and latent energy release of the animals, the thermal properties of the building and the ventilation system and its control unit. For a site in Austria in the north of the Alpine Ridge, which is representative for confined livestock buildings for growing-fattening pigs in Central Europe, meteorological data between 1981 and 2017 were used for the model calculations of heat stress measures. This business-as-usual simulation over these 37 years resulted in an increase of the mean relative annual heat stress parameters in the range between 0.9 and 6.4% per year since 1981. In order to minimise the negative economic impact as the consequence of this positive trend of heat stress, adaptation measures are needed. The calculations for growing-fattening pigs show that such a simulation model for the indoor climate is an appropriate tool to determine the level of heat stress of livestock inside confined livestock buildings.

Impacts of climate change adaptation options on soil functions: A review of European case-studies.

Soils are vital for supporting food security and other ecosystem services. Climate change can affect soil functions both directly and indirectly. Direct effects include temperature, precipitation, and moisture regime changes. Indirect effects include those that are induced by adaptations such as irrigation, crop rotation changes, and tillage practices. Although extensive knowledge is available on the direct effects, an understanding of the indirect effects of agricultural adaptation options is less complete. A review of 20 agricultural adaptation case-studies across Europe was conducted to assess implications to soil threats and soil functions and the link to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The major findings are as follows: (a) adaptation options reflect local conditions; (b) reduced soil erosion threats and increased soil organic carbon are expected, although compaction may increase in some areas; (c) most adaptation options are anticipated to improve the soil functions of food and biomass production, soil organic carbon storage, and storing, filtering, transforming, and recycling capacities, whereas possible implications for soil biodiversity are largely unknown; and (d) the linkage between soil functions and the SDGs implies improvements to SDG 2 (achieving food security and promoting sustainable agriculture) and SDG 13 (taking action on climate change), whereas the relationship to SDG 15 (using terrestrial ecosystems sustainably) is largely unknown. The conclusion is drawn that agricultural adaptation options, even when focused on increasing yields, have the potential to outweigh the negative direct effects of climate change on soil degradation in many European regions.

The Stimuli-Actions-Effects-Responses (SAER)-framework for exploring perceived relationships between private and public climate change adaptation in agriculture.

Empirical findings on actors' roles and responsibilities in the climate change adaptation process are rare even though cooperation between private and public actors is perceived important to foster adaptation in agriculture. We therefore developed the framework SAER (Stimuli-Actions-Effects-Responses) to investigate perceived relationships between private and public climate change adaptation in agriculture at regional scale. In particular, we explore agricultural experts' perceptions on (i) climatic and non-climatic factors stimulating private adaptation, (ii) farm adaption actions, (iii) potential on-farm and off-farm effects from adaptation, and (iv) the relationships between private and public adaptation. The SAER-framework is built on a comprehensive literature review and empirical findings from semi-structured interviews with agricultural experts from two case study regions in Austria. We find that private adaptation is perceived as incremental, systemic or transformational. It is typically stimulated by a mix of bio-physical and socio-economic on-farm and off-farm factors. Stimulating factors related to climate change are perceived of highest relevance for systemic and transformational adaptation whereas already implemented adaptation is mostly perceived to be incremental. Perceived effects of private adaptation are related to the environment, weather and climate, quality and quantity of agricultural products as well as human, social and economic resources. Our results also show that public adaptation can influence factors stimulating private adaptation as well as adaptation effects through the design and development of the legal, policy and organizational environment as well as the provision of educational, informational, financial, and technical infrastructure. Hence, facilitating existing and new collaborations between private and public actors may enable farmers to adapt effectively to climate change.

A novel integrated modelling framework to assess the impacts of climate and socio-economic drivers on land use and water quality.

Changes in climatic conditions will directly affect the quality and quantity of water resources. Further on, they will affect them indirectly through adaptation in land use which ultimately influences diffuse nutrient emissions to rivers and therefore potentially the compliance with good ecological status according to the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD). We present an integrated impact modelling framework (IIMF) to track and quantify direct and indirect pollution impacts along policy-economy-climate-agriculture-water interfaces. The IIMF is applied to assess impacts of climatic and socio-economic drivers on agricultural land use (crop choices, farming practices and fertilization levels), river flows and the risk for exceedance of environmental quality standards for determination of the ecological water quality status in Austria. This article also presents model interfaces as well as validation procedures and results of single models and the IIMF with respect to observed state variables such as land use, river flow and nutrient river loads. The performance of the IIMF for calculations of river nutrient loads (120 monitoring stations) shows a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.73 for nitrogen and 0.51 for phosphorus. Most problematic is the modelling of phosphorus loads in the alpine catchments dominated by forests and mountainous landscape. About 63% of these catchments show a deviation between modelled and observed loads of 30% and more. In catchments dominated by agricultural production, the performance of the IIMF is much better as only 30% of cropland and 23% of permanent grassland dominated areas have a deviation of >30% between modelled and observed loads. As risk of exceedance of environmental quality standards is mainly recognized in catchments dominated by cropland, the IIMF is well suited for assessing the nutrient component of the WFD ecological status.