Data aggregation can lead to biased inferences in Bayesian linear mixed models and Bayesian analysis of variance.

Bayesian linear mixed-effects models (LMMs) and Bayesian analysis of variance (ANOVA) are increasingly being used in the cognitive sciences to perform null hypothesis tests, where a null hypothesis that an effect is zero is compared with an alternative hypothesis that the effect exists and is different from zero. While software tools for Bayes factor null hypothesis tests are easily accessible, how to specify the data and the model correctly is often not clear. In Bayesian approaches, many authors use data aggregation at the by-subject level and estimate Bayes factors on aggregated data. Here, we use simulation-based calibration for model inference applied to several example experimental designs to demonstrate that, as with frequentist analysis, such null hypothesis tests on aggregated data can be problematic in Bayesian analysis. Specifically, when random slope variances differ (i.e., violated sphericity assumption), Bayes factors are too conservative for contrasts where the variance is small and they are too liberal for contrasts where the variance is large. Running Bayesian ANOVA on aggregated data can-if the sphericity assumption is violated-likewise lead to biased Bayes factor results. Moreover, Bayes factors for by-subject aggregated data are biased (too liberal) when random item slope variance is present but ignored in the analysis. These problems can be circumvented or reduced by running Bayesian LMMs on nonaggregated data such as on individual trials, and by explicitly modeling the full random effects structure. Reproducible code is available from https://osf.io/mjf47/. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

High-mind wandering correlates with high risk for problematic alcohol use in China and Germany.

Everyone experiences the natural ebb and flow of task-unrelated thoughts. Given how common the fluctuations in these thoughts are, surprisingly, we know very little about how they shape individuals' responses to alcohol use. Here, we investigated if mind wandering is associated with a risk of developing problematic alcohol use. We undertook an online survey among the general population in China (N = 1123) and Germany (N = 1018) from December 2021 to February 2022 and examined the subjective experience of mind wandering and problematic alcohol use through the Mind Wandering Questionnaire (MWQ) and the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT). We compared mind wandering and problematic alcohol use between two countries and investigated the association between MWQ scores with AUDIT scores. We found higher scores on the MWQ and a high percentage of problematic alcohol use (i.e., AUDIT score ≥ 8) in Germany (22.5%) as compared to in China (14.5%). Higher self-reported mind wandering was associated with higher AUDIT scores. AUDIT scores were increased mostly in male, elder, and high-mind wandering people. Our findings highlight that mind wandering and problematic alcohol use enhanced in Germany as compared to in China. Our study sheds light on the relationship between mind wandering and problematic alcohol use that may help to further investigate causal effects of interventions.

Spontaneous mind wandering impairs model-based decision making.

BACKGROUND: If our attention wanders to other thoughts while making a decision, then the decision might not be directed towards future goals, reflecting a lack of model-based decision making, but may instead be driven by habits, reflecting model-free decision making. Here we aimed to investigate if and how model-based versus model-free decision making is reduced by trait spontaneous mind wandering. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used a sequential two-step Markov decision task and a self-report questionnaire assessing trait spontaneous and deliberate mind wandering propensity, to investigate how trait mind wandering relates to model-free as well as model-based decisions. We estimated parameters of a computational neurocognitive dual-control model of decision making. Analyzing estimated model parameters, we found that trait spontaneous mind wandering was related to impaired model-based decisions, while model-free choice stayed unaffected. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest trait spontaneous mind wandering is associated with impaired model-based decision making, and it may reflect model-based offline replay for other tasks (e.g., real-life goals) outside the current lab situation.

Social distancing-induced deceleration can enhance subjective well-being.

Modern societies provide an abundance of opportunities, which could lead to acceleration and time poverty, thereby paradoxically limiting well-being. This study examines this issue using social distancing measures introduced during the COVID-19 pandemic. We analyzed a data set of over four million responses, collected by the German online newspaper "ZEIT ONLINE," where people responded to the question "How are you today?" with "good" or "bad," assessing subjective well-being, and an optional self-descriptive adjective of mood. The results showed that subjective well-being significantly increased with the onset of social distancing regulations. This increase was closely accompanied by a rise in adjectives associated with deceleration, the daily usage of which best predicted daily well-being during COVID-19. Factor analysis showed that Factor 1 best predicted daily well-being and was effectively described by adjectives associated with deceleration. An analysis of potential mechanisms of deceleration during the pandemic revealed lower stress levels during workdays and weekends, as well as better sleep. These findings provide large-scale support to theories suggesting that acceleration and time poverty in modern societies may impair well-being.

Computational analysis of probabilistic reversal learning deficits in male subjects with alcohol use disorder.

Background: Alcohol use disorder is characterized by perseverative alcohol use despite negative consequences. This hallmark feature of addiction potentially relates to impairments in behavioral flexibility, which can be measured by probabilistic reversal learning (PRL) paradigms. We here aimed to examine the cognitive mechanisms underlying impaired PRL task performance in patients with alcohol use disorder (AUDP) using computational models of reinforcement learning. Methods: Twenty-eight early abstinent AUDP and 27 healthy controls (HC) performed an extensive PRL paradigm. We compared conventional behavioral variables of choices (perseveration; correct responses) between groups. Moreover, we fitted Bayesian computational models to the task data to compare differences in latent cognitive variables including reward and punishment learning and choice consistency between groups. Results: AUDP and HC did not significantly differ with regard to direct perseveration rates after reversals. However, AUDP made overall less correct responses and specifically showed decreased win-stay behavior compared to HC. Interestingly, AUDP showed premature switching after no or little negative feedback but elevated proneness to stay when accumulation of negative feedback would make switching a more optimal option. Computational modeling revealed that AUDP compared to HC showed enhanced learning from punishment, a tendency to learn less from positive feedback and lower choice consistency. Conclusion: Our data do not support the assumption that AUDP are characterized by increased perseveration behavior. Instead our findings provide evidence that enhanced negative reinforcement and decreased non-drug-related reward learning as well as diminished choice consistency underlie dysfunctional choice behavior in AUDP.

Alcohol dependence decreases functional activation of the caudate nucleus during model-based decision processes.

BACKGROUND: Impaired decision making, a key characteristic of alcohol dependence (AD), manifests in continuous alcohol consumption despite severe negative consequences. The neural basis of this impairment in individuals with AD and differences with known neural decision mechanisms among healthy subjects are not fully understood. In particular, it is unclear whether the choice behavior among individuals with AD is based on a general impairment of decision mechanisms or is mainly explained by altered value attribution, with an overly high subjective value attributed to alcohol-related stimuli. METHODS: Here, we use a functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) monetary reward task to compare the neural processes of model-based decision making and value computation between AD individuals (n = 32) and healthy controls (n = 32). During fMRI, participants evaluated monetary offers with respect to dynamically changing constraints and different levels of uncertainty. RESULTS: Individuals with AD showed lower activation associated with model-based decision processes in the caudate nucleus than controls, but there were no group differences in value-related neural activity or task performance. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings highlight the role of the caudate nucleus in impaired model-based decisions of alcohol-dependent individuals.

Workflow techniques for the robust use of bayes factors.

Inferences about hypotheses are ubiquitous in the cognitive sciences. Bayes factors provide one general way to compare different hypotheses by their compatibility with the observed data. Those quantifications can then also be used to choose between hypotheses. While Bayes factors provide an immediate approach to hypothesis testing, they are highly sensitive to details of the data/model assumptions and it's unclear whether the details of the computational implementation (such as bridge sampling) are unbiased for complex analyses. Here, we study how Bayes factors misbehave under different conditions. This includes a study of errors in the estimation of Bayes factors; the first-ever use of simulation-based calibration to test the accuracy and bias of Bayes factor estimates using bridge sampling; a study of the stability of Bayes factors against different MCMC draws and sampling variation in the data; and a look at the variability of decisions based on Bayes factors using a utility function. We outline a Bayes factor workflow that researchers can use to study whether Bayes factors are robust for their individual analysis. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).

Toward a principled Bayesian workflow in cognitive science.

Experiments in research on memory, language, and in other areas of cognitive science are increasingly being analyzed using Bayesian methods. This has been facilitated by the development of probabilistic programming languages such as Stan, and easily accessible front-end packages such as brms. The utility of Bayesian methods, however, ultimately depends on the relevance of the Bayesian model, in particular whether or not it accurately captures the structure of the data and the data analyst's domain expertise. Even with powerful software, the analyst is responsible for verifying the utility of their model. To demonstrate this point, we introduce a principled Bayesian workflow (Betancourt, 2018) to cognitive science. Using a concrete working example, we describe basic questions one should ask about the model: prior predictive checks, computational faithfulness, model sensitivity, and posterior predictive checks. The running example for demonstrating the workflow is data on reading times with a linguistic manipulation of object versus subject relative clause sentences. This principled Bayesian workflow also demonstrates how to use domain knowledge to inform prior distributions. It provides guidelines and checks for valid data analysis, avoiding overfitting complex models to noise, and capturing relevant data structure in a probabilistic model. Given the increasing use of Bayesian methods, we aim to discuss how these methods can be properly employed to obtain robust answers to scientific questions. All data and code accompanying this article are available from https://osf.io/b2vx9/. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).

Susceptibility to interference between Pavlovian and instrumental control is associated with early hazardous alcohol use.

Pavlovian-to-instrumental transfer (PIT) tasks examine the influence of Pavlovian stimuli on ongoing instrumental behaviour. Previous studies reported associations between a strong PIT effect, high-risk drinking and alcohol use disorder. This study investigated whether susceptibility to interference between Pavlovian and instrumental control is linked to risky alcohol use in a community sample of 18-year-old male adults. Participants (N = 191) were instructed to 'collect good shells' and 'leave bad shells' during the presentation of appetitive (monetary reward), aversive (monetary loss) or neutral Pavlovian stimuli. We compared instrumental error rates (ER) and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) brain responses between the congruent and incongruent conditions, as well as among high-risk and low-risk drinking groups. On average, individuals showed a substantial PIT effect, that is, increased ER when Pavlovian cues and instrumental stimuli were in conflict compared with congruent trials. Neural PIT correlates were found in the ventral striatum and the dorsomedial and lateral prefrontal cortices (lPFC). Importantly, high-risk drinking was associated with a stronger behavioural PIT effect, a decreased lPFC response and an increased neural response in the ventral striatum on the trend level. Moreover, high-risk drinkers showed weaker connectivity from the ventral striatum to the lPFC during incongruent trials. Our study links interference during PIT to drinking behaviour in healthy, young adults. High-risk drinkers showed higher susceptibility to Pavlovian cues, especially when they conflicted with instrumental behaviour, indicating lower interference control abilities. Increased activity in the ventral striatum (bottom-up), decreased lPFC response (top-down), and their altered interplay may contribute to poor interference control in the high-risk drinkers.

Semantic richness and density effects on language production: Electrophysiological and behavioral evidence.

Language production ultimately aims to convey meaning. Yet words differ widely in the richness and density of their semantic representations, and these differences impact conceptual and lexical processes during speech planning. Here, we replicated the recent finding that semantic richness, measured as the number of associated semantic features according to semantic feature production norms, facilitates object naming. In contrast, intercorrelational semantic feature density, measured as the degree of intercorrelation of a concept's features, presumably resulting in the coactivation of closely related concepts, has an inhibitory influence. We replicated the behavioral effects and investigated their relative time course and electrophysiological correlates. Both the facilitatory effect of high semantic richness and the inhibitory influence of high feature density were reflected in an increased posterior positivity starting at about 250 ms, in line with previous reports of posterior positivities in paradigms employing contextual manipulations to induce semantic interference during language production. Furthermore, amplitudes at the same posterior electrode sites were positively correlated with object naming times between about 230 and 380 ms. The observed effects follow naturally from the assumption of conceptual facilitation and simultaneous lexical competition and are difficult to explain by language production theories dismissing lexical competition. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).

Dysfunctional approach behavior triggered by alcohol-unrelated Pavlovian cues predicts long-term relapse in alcohol dependence.

We demonstrated that alcohol-dependent patients who relapsed within 1 year after detoxification showed stronger PIT effects compared with abstainers and controls. Relapsers particularly failed to correctly perform in trials where an instrumental stimulus required inhibition while a Pavlovian background cue indicated a monetary gain. Under that condition, relapsers approached the instrumental stimulus, independent of the expected punishment. The failure of inhibiting an aversive stimulus in favor of approaching an appetitive context cue reflects dysfunctional altered learning mechanisms in relapsers.

Dissociating neural learning signals in human sign- and goal-trackers.

Individuals differ in how they learn from experience. In Pavlovian conditioning models, where cues predict reinforcer delivery at a different goal location, some animals-called sign-trackers-come to approach the cue, whereas others, called goal-trackers, approach the goal. In sign-trackers, model-free phasic dopaminergic reward-prediction errors underlie learning, which renders stimuli 'wanted'. Goal-trackers do not rely on dopamine for learning and are thought to use model-based learning. We demonstrate this double dissociation in 129 male humans using eye-tracking, pupillometry and functional magnetic resonance imaging informed by computational models of sign- and goal-tracking. We show that sign-trackers exhibit a neural reward prediction error signal that is not detectable in goal-trackers. Model-free value only guides gaze and pupil dilation in sign-trackers. Goal-trackers instead exhibit a stronger model-based neural state prediction error signal. This model-based construct determines gaze and pupil dilation more in goal-trackers.

Short-term effects of video gaming on brain response during working memory performance.

Breaks filled with different break activities often interrupt cognitive performance in everyday life. Previous studies have reported that both enhancing and deteriorating effects on challenging ongoing tasks such as working memory updating, depend on the type of break activity. However, neural mechanisms of these break-related alterations in working memory performance have not been studied, to date. Therefore, we conducted a brain imaging study to identify the neurobiological correlates of effects on the n-back working memory task related to different break activities. Before performing the n-back task in the magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scanner, young adults were exposed to break activities in the MRI scanner involving (i) eyes-open resting, (ii) listening to music, and (iii) playing the video game "Angry Birds". Heart rate was measured by a pulse oximeter during the experiment. We found that increased heart rate during gaming as well as decreased relaxation levels after a video gaming break was related to poorer n-back task performance, as compared to listening to music. On the neural level, video gaming reduced supplementary motor area activation during working memory performance. These results may indicate that video gaming during a break may affect working memory performance by interfering with arousal state and frontal cognitive control functions.

Pavlovian-To-Instrumental Transfer and Alcohol Consumption in Young Male Social Drinkers: Behavioral, Neural and Polygenic Correlates.

In animals and humans, behavior can be influenced by irrelevant stimuli, a phenomenon called Pavlovian-to-instrumental transfer (PIT). In subjects with substance use disorder, PIT is even enhanced with functional activation in the nucleus accumbens (NAcc) and amygdala. While we observed enhanced behavioral and neural PIT effects in alcohol-dependent subjects, we here aimed to determine whether behavioral PIT is enhanced in young men with high-risk compared to low-risk drinking and subsequently related functional activation in an a-priori region of interest encompassing the NAcc and amygdala and related to polygenic risk for alcohol consumption. A representative sample of 18-year old men (n = 1937) was contacted: 445 were screened, 209 assessed: resulting in 191 valid behavioral, 139 imaging and 157 genetic datasets. None of the subjects fulfilled criteria for alcohol dependence according to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders-IV-TextRevision (DSM-IV-TR). We measured how instrumental responding for rewards was influenced by background Pavlovian conditioned stimuli predicting action-independent rewards and losses. Behavioral PIT was enhanced in high-compared to low-risk drinkers (b = 0.09, SE = 0.03, z = 2.7, p < 0.009). Across all subjects, we observed PIT-related neural blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) signal in the right amygdala (t = 3.25, pSVC = 0.04, x = 26, y = -6, z = -12), but not in NAcc. The strength of the behavioral PIT effect was positively correlated with polygenic risk for alcohol consumption (rs = 0.17, p = 0.032). We conclude that behavioral PIT and polygenic risk for alcohol consumption might be a biomarker for a subclinical phenotype of risky alcohol consumption, even if no drug-related stimulus is present. The association between behavioral PIT effects and the amygdala might point to habitual processes related to out PIT task. In non-dependent young social drinkers, the amygdala rather than the NAcc is activated during PIT; possible different involvement in association with disease trajectory should be investigated in future studies.

Neural correlates of instrumental responding in the context of alcohol-related cues index disorder severity and relapse risk.

The influence of Pavlovian conditioned stimuli on ongoing behavior may contribute to explaining how alcohol cues stimulate drug seeking and intake. Using a Pavlovian-instrumental transfer task, we investigated the effects of alcohol-related cues on approach behavior (i.e., instrumental response behavior) and its neural correlates, and related both to the relapse after detoxification in alcohol-dependent patients. Thirty-one recently detoxified alcohol-dependent patients and 24 healthy controls underwent instrumental training, where approach or non-approach towards initially neutral stimuli was reinforced by monetary incentives. Approach behavior was tested during extinction with either alcohol-related or neutral stimuli (as Pavlovian cues) presented in the background during functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Patients were subsequently followed up for 6 months. We observed that alcohol-related background stimuli inhibited the approach behavior in detoxified alcohol-dependent patients (t = - 3.86, p < .001), but not in healthy controls (t = - 0.92, p = .36). This behavioral inhibition was associated with neural activation in the nucleus accumbens (NAcc) (t(30) = 2.06, p < .05). Interestingly, both the effects were only present in subsequent abstainers, but not relapsers and in those with mild but not severe dependence. Our data show that alcohol-related cues can acquire inhibitory behavioral features typical of aversive stimuli despite being accompanied by a stronger NAcc activation, suggesting salience attribution. The fact that these findings are restricted to abstinence and milder illness suggests that they may be potential resilience factors.Clinical trial: LeAD study, http://www.lead-studie.de , NCT01679145.

Drunk decisions: Alcohol shifts choice from habitual towards goal-directed control in adolescent intermediate-risk drinkers.

BACKGROUND: Studies in humans and animals suggest a shift from goal-directed to habitual decision-making in addiction. We therefore tested whether acute alcohol administration reduces goal-directed and promotes habitual decision-making, and whether these effects are moderated by self-reported drinking problems. METHODS: Fifty-three socially drinking males completed the two-step task in a randomised crossover design while receiving an intravenous infusion of ethanol (blood alcohol level=80 mg%), or placebo. To minimise potential bias by long-standing heavy drinking and subsequent neuropsychological impairment, we tested 18- to 19-year-old adolescents. RESULTS: Alcohol administration consistently reduced habitual, model-free decisions, while its effects on goal-directed, model-based behaviour varied as a function of drinking problems measured with the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test. While adolescents with low risk for drinking problems (scoring <8) exhibited an alcohol-induced numerical reduction in goal-directed choices, intermediate-risk drinkers showed a shift away from habitual towards goal-directed decision-making, such that alcohol possibly even improved their performance. CONCLUSIONS: We assume that alcohol disrupted basic cognitive functions underlying habitual and goal-directed decisions in low-risk drinkers, thereby enhancing hasty choices. Further, we speculate that intermediate-risk drinkers benefited from alcohol as a negative reinforcer that reduced unpleasant emotional states, possibly displaying a novel risk factor for drinking in adolescence.

No association of goal-directed and habitual control with alcohol consumption in young adults.

Alcohol dependence is a mental disorder that has been associated with an imbalance in behavioral control favoring model-free habitual over model-based goal-directed strategies. It is as yet unknown, however, whether such an imbalance reflects a predisposing vulnerability or results as a consequence of repeated and/or excessive alcohol exposure. We, therefore, examined the association of alcohol consumption with model-based goal-directed and model-free habitual control in 188 18-year-old social drinkers in a two-step sequential decision-making task while undergoing functional magnetic resonance imaging before prolonged alcohol misuse could have led to severe neurobiological adaptations. Behaviorally, participants showed a mixture of model-free and model-based decision-making as observed previously. Measures of impulsivity were positively related to alcohol consumption. In contrast, neither model-free nor model-based decision weights nor the trade-off between them were associated with alcohol consumption. There were also no significant associations between alcohol consumption and neural correlates of model-free or model-based decision quantities in either ventral striatum or ventromedial prefrontal cortex. Exploratory whole-brain functional magnetic resonance imaging analyses with a lenient threshold revealed early onset of drinking to be associated with an enhanced representation of model-free reward prediction errors in the posterior putamen. These results suggest that an imbalance between model-based goal-directed and model-free habitual control might rather not be a trait marker of alcohol intake per se.

When Habits Are Dangerous: Alcohol Expectancies and Habitual Decision Making Predict Relapse in Alcohol Dependence.

BACKGROUND: Addiction is supposedly characterized by a shift from goal-directed to habitual decision making, thus facilitating automatic drug intake. The two-step task allows distinguishing between these mechanisms by computationally modeling goal-directed and habitual behavior as model-based and model-free control. In addicted patients, decision making may also strongly depend upon drug-associated expectations. Therefore, we investigated model-based versus model-free decision making and its neural correlates as well as alcohol expectancies in alcohol-dependent patients and healthy controls and assessed treatment outcome in patients. METHODS: Ninety detoxified, medication-free, alcohol-dependent patients and 96 age- and gender-matched control subjects underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging during the two-step task. Alcohol expectancies were measured with the Alcohol Expectancy Questionnaire. Over a follow-up period of 48 weeks, 37 patients remained abstinent and 53 patients relapsed as indicated by the Alcohol Timeline Followback method. RESULTS: Patients who relapsed displayed reduced medial prefrontal cortex activation during model-based decision making. Furthermore, high alcohol expectancies were associated with low model-based control in relapsers, while the opposite was observed in abstainers and healthy control subjects. However, reduced model-based control per se was not associated with subsequent relapse. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that poor treatment outcome in alcohol dependence does not simply result from a shift from model-based to model-free control but is instead dependent on the interaction between high drug expectancies and low model-based decision making. Reduced model-based medial prefrontal cortex signatures in those who relapse point to a neural correlate of relapse risk. These observations suggest that therapeutic interventions should target subjective alcohol expectancies.

Music and Video Gaming during Breaks: Influence on Habitual versus Goal-Directed Decision Making.

Different systems for habitual versus goal-directed control are thought to underlie human decision-making. Working memory is known to shape these decision-making systems and their interplay, and is known to support goal-directed decision making even under stress. Here, we investigated if and how decision systems are differentially influenced by breaks filled with diverse everyday life activities known to modulate working memory performance. We used a within-subject design where young adults listened to music and played a video game during breaks interleaved with trials of a sequential two-step Markov decision task, designed to assess habitual as well as goal-directed decision making. Based on a neurocomputational model of task performance, we observed that for individuals with a rather limited working memory capacity video gaming as compared to music reduced reliance on the goal-directed decision-making system, while a rather large working memory capacity prevented such a decline. Our findings suggest differential effects of everyday activities on key decision-making processes.

Don't Think, Just Feel the Music: Individuals with Strong Pavlovian-to-Instrumental Transfer Effects Rely Less on Model-based Reinforcement Learning.

Behavioral choice can be characterized along two axes. One axis distinguishes reflexive, model-free systems that slowly accumulate values through experience and a model-based system that uses knowledge to reason prospectively. The second axis distinguishes Pavlovian valuation of stimuli from instrumental valuation of actions or stimulus-action pairs. This results in four values and many possible interactions between them, with important consequences for accounts of individual variation. We here explored whether individual variation along one axis was related to individual variation along the other. Specifically, we asked whether individuals' balance between model-based and model-free learning was related to their tendency to show Pavlovian interferences with instrumental decisions. In two independent samples with a total of 243 participants, Pavlovian-instrumental transfer effects were negatively correlated with the strength of model-based reasoning in a two-step task. This suggests a potential common underlying substrate predisposing individuals to both have strong Pavlovian interference and be less model-based and provides a framework within which to interpret the observation of both effects in addiction.