Genotypic analysis of RTS,S/AS01E malaria vaccine efficacy against parasite infection as a function of dosage regimen and baseline malaria infection status in children aged 5-17 months in Ghana and Kenya: a longitudinal phase 2b randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: The first licensed malaria vaccine, RTS,S/AS01E, confers moderate protection against symptomatic disease. Because many malaria infections are asymptomatic, we conducted a large-scale longitudinal parasite genotyping study of samples from a clinical trial exploring how vaccine dosing regimen affects vaccine efficacy. METHODS: Between Sept 28, 2017, and Sept 25, 2018, 1500 children aged 5-17 months were randomly assigned (1:1:1:1:1) to receive four different RTS,S/AS01E regimens or a rabies control vaccine in a phase 2b open-label clinical trial in Ghana and Kenya. Participants in the four RTS,S groups received two full doses at month 0 and month 1 and either full doses at month 2 and month 20 (group R012-20); full doses at month 2, month 14, month 26, and month 38 (group R012-14); fractional doses at month 2, month 14, month 26, and month 38 (group Fx012-14; early fourth dose); or fractional doses at month 7, month 20, and month 32 (group Fx017-20; delayed third dose). We evaluated the time to the first new genotypically detected infection and the total number of new infections during two follow-up periods (12 months and 20 months) in more than 36 000 dried blood spot specimens from 1500 participants. To study vaccine effects on time to the first new infection, we defined vaccine efficacy as one minus the hazard ratio (HR; RTS,S vs control) of the first new infection. We performed a post-hoc analysis of vaccine efficacy based on malaria infection status at first vaccination and force of infection by month 2. This trial (MAL-095) is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03281291. FINDINGS: We observed significant and similar vaccine efficacy (25-43%; 95% CI union 9-53) against first new infection for all four RTS,S/AS01E regimens across both follow-up periods (12 months and 20 months). Each RTS,S/AS01E regimen significantly reduced the mean number of new infections in the 20-month follow-up period by 1·1-1·6 infections (95% CI union 0·6-2·1). Vaccine efficacy against first new infection was significantly higher in participants who were infected with malaria (68%; 95% CI 50-80) than in those who were uninfected (37%; 23-48) at the first vaccination (p=0·0053). INTERPRETATION: All tested dosing regimens blocked some infections to a similar degree. Improved vaccine efficacy in participants infected during vaccination could suggest new strategies for highly efficacious malaria vaccine development and implementation. FUNDING: GlaxoSmithKline Biologicals SA, PATH, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research.

Evaluating the performance of Plasmodium falciparum genetic metrics for inferring National Malaria Control Programme reported incidence in Senegal.

BACKGROUND: Genetic surveillance of the Plasmodium falciparum parasite shows great promise for helping National Malaria Control Programmes (NMCPs) assess parasite transmission. Genetic metrics such as the frequency of polygenomic (multiple strain) infections, genetic clones, and the complexity of infection (COI, number of strains per infection) are correlated with transmission intensity. However, despite these correlations, it is unclear whether genetic metrics alone are sufficient to estimate clinical incidence. METHODS: This study examined parasites from 3147 clinical infections sampled between the years 2012-2020 through passive case detection (PCD) across 16 clinic sites spread throughout Senegal. Samples were genotyped with a 24 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) molecular barcode that detects parasite strains, distinguishes polygenomic (multiple strain) from monogenomic (single strain) infections, and identifies clonal infections. To determine whether genetic signals can predict incidence, a series of Poisson generalized linear mixed-effects models were constructed to predict the incidence level at each clinical site from a set of genetic metrics designed to measure parasite clonality, superinfection, and co-transmission rates. RESULTS: Model-predicted incidence was compared with the reported standard incidence data determined by the NMCP for each clinic and found that parasite genetic metrics generally correlated with reported incidence, with departures from expected values at very low annual incidence (< 10/1000/annual [‰]). CONCLUSIONS: When transmission is greater than 10 cases per 1000 annual parasite incidence (annual incidence > 10‰), parasite genetics can be used to accurately infer incidence and is consistent with superinfection-based hypotheses of malaria transmission. When transmission was < 10‰, many of the correlations between parasite genetics and incidence were reversed, which may reflect the disproportionate impact of importation and focal transmission on parasite genetics when local transmission levels are low.

Genome-wide association study identifies human genetic variants associated with fatal outcome from Lassa fever.

Infection with Lassa virus (LASV) can cause Lassa fever, a haemorrhagic illness with an estimated fatality rate of 29.7%, but causes no or mild symptoms in many individuals. Here, to investigate whether human genetic variation underlies the heterogeneity of LASV infection, we carried out genome-wide association studies (GWAS) as well as seroprevalence surveys, human leukocyte antigen typing and high-throughput variant functional characterization assays. We analysed Lassa fever susceptibility and fatal outcomes in 533 cases of Lassa fever and 1,986 population controls recruited over a 7 year period in Nigeria and Sierra Leone. We detected genome-wide significant variant associations with Lassa fever fatal outcomes near GRM7 and LIF in the Nigerian cohort. We also show that a haplotype bearing signatures of positive selection and overlapping LARGE1, a required LASV entry factor, is associated with decreased risk of Lassa fever in the Nigerian cohort but not in the Sierra Leone cohort. Overall, we identified variants and genes that may impact the risk of severe Lassa fever, demonstrating how GWAS can provide insight into viral pathogenesis.

Investigating the etiologies of non-malarial febrile illness in Senegal using metagenomic sequencing.

The worldwide decline in malaria incidence is revealing the extensive burden of non-malarial febrile illness (NMFI), which remains poorly understood and difficult to diagnose. To characterize NMFI in Senegal, we collected venous blood and clinical metadata in a cross-sectional study of febrile patients and healthy controls in a low malaria burden area. Using 16S and untargeted sequencing, we detected viral, bacterial, or eukaryotic pathogens in 23% (38/163) of NMFI cases. Bacteria were the most common, with relapsing fever Borrelia and spotted fever Rickettsia found in 15.5% and 3.8% of cases, respectively. Four viral pathogens were found in a total of 7 febrile cases (3.5%). Sequencing also detected undiagnosed Plasmodium, including one putative P. ovale infection. We developed a logistic regression model that can distinguish Borrelia from NMFIs with similar presentation based on symptoms and vital signs (F1 score: 0.823). These results highlight the challenge and importance of improved diagnostics, especially for Borrelia, to support diagnosis and surveillance.

Baseline malaria infection status and RTS,S/AS01E malaria vaccine efficacy.

Background: The only licensed malaria vaccine, RTS,S/AS01 E , confers moderate protection against symptomatic disease. Because many malaria infections are asymptomatic, we conducted a large-scale longitudinal parasite genotyping study of samples from a clinical trial exploring how vaccine dosing regimen affects vaccine efficacy (VE). Methods: 1,500 children aged 5-17 months were randomized to receive four different RTS,S/AS01 E regimens or a rabies control vaccine in a phase 2b clinical trial in Ghana and Kenya. We evaluated the time to the first new genotypically detected infection and the total number of new infections during two follow-up periods in over 36K participant specimens. We performed a post hoc analysis of VE based on malaria infection status at first vaccination and force of infection. Results: We observed significant and comparable VE (25-43%, 95% CI union 9-53%) against first new infection for all four RTS,S/AS01 E regimens across both follow-up periods (12 and 20 months). Each RTS,S/AS01 E regimen significantly reduced the number of new infections in the 20-month follow-up period (control mean 4.1 vs. RTS,S/AS01 E mean 2.6-3.0). VE against first new infection was significantly higher in participants who were malaria-infected (68%; 95% CI, 50 to 80%) versus uninfected (37%; 95% CI, 23 to 48%) at the first vaccination (P=0.0053) and in participants experiencing greater force of infection between dose 1 and 3 (P=0.059). Conclusions: All tested dosing regimens blocked some infections to a similar degree. Improved VE in participants infected during vaccination could suggest new strategies for highly efficacious malaria vaccine development and implementation. ( ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03276962 ).

Malaria surveillance reveals parasite relatedness, signatures of selection, and correlates of transmission across Senegal.

We here analyze data from the first year of an ongoing nationwide program of genetic surveillance of Plasmodium falciparum parasites in Senegal. The analysis is based on 1097 samples collected at health facilities during passive malaria case detection in 2019; it provides a baseline for analyzing parasite genetic metrics as they vary over time and geographic space. The study's goal was to identify genetic metrics that were informative about transmission intensity and other aspects of transmission dynamics, focusing on measures of genetic relatedness between parasites. We found the best genetic proxy for local malaria incidence to be the proportion of polygenomic infections (those with multiple genetically distinct parasites), although this relationship broke down at low incidence. The proportion of related parasites was less correlated with incidence while local genetic diversity was uninformative. The type of relatedness could discriminate local transmission patterns: two nearby areas had similarly high fractions of relatives, but one was dominated by clones and the other by outcrossed relatives. Throughout Senegal, 58% of related parasites belonged to a single network of relatives, within which parasites were enriched for shared haplotypes at known and suspected drug resistance loci and at one novel locus, reflective of ongoing selection pressure.

Evaluating the performance of Plasmodium falciparum genetics for inferring National Malaria Control Program reported incidence in Senegal.

Genetic surveillance of the Plasmodium falciparum parasite shows great promise for helping National Malaria Control Programs (NMCPs) assess parasite transmission. Genetic metrics such as the frequency of polygenomic (multiple strain) infections, genetic clones, and the complexity of infection (COI, number of strains per infection) are correlated with transmission intensity. However, despite these correlations, it is unclear whether genetic metrics alone are sufficient to estimate clinical incidence. Here, we examined parasites from 3,147 clinical infections sampled between the years 2012-2020 through passive case detection (PCD) across 16 clinic sites spread throughout Senegal. Samples were genotyped with a 24 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) molecular barcode that detects parasite strains, distinguishes polygenomic (multiple strain) from monogenomic (single strain) infections, and identifies clonal infections. To determine whether genetic signals can predict incidence, we constructed a series of Poisson generalized linear mixed-effects models to predict the incidence level at each clinical site from a set of genetic metrics designed to measure parasite clonality, superinfection, and co-transmission rates. We compared the model-predicted incidence with the reported standard incidence data determined by the NMCP for each clinic and found that parasite genetic metrics generally correlated with reported incidence, with departures from expected values at very low annual incidence (<10/1000/annual [‰]). When transmission is greater than 10 cases per 1000 annual parasite incidence (annual incidence >10 ‰), parasite genetics can be used to accurately infer incidence and is consistent with superinfection-based hypotheses of malaria transmission. When transmission was <10 ‰, we found that many of the correlations between parasite genetics and incidence were reversed, which we hypothesize reflects the disproportionate impact of importation and focal transmission on parasite genetics when local transmission levels are low.

Inferring Viral Transmission Pathways from Within-Host Variation.

Genome sequencing can offer critical insight into pathogen spread in viral outbreaks, but existing transmission inference methods use simplistic evolutionary models and only incorporate a portion of available genetic data. Here, we develop a robust evolutionary model for transmission reconstruction that tracks the genetic composition of within-host viral populations over time and the lineages transmitted between hosts. We confirm that our model reliably describes within-host variant frequencies in a dataset of 134,682 SARS-CoV-2 deep-sequenced genomes from Massachusetts, USA. We then demonstrate that our reconstruction approach infers transmissions more accurately than two leading methods on synthetic data, as well as in a controlled outbreak of bovine respiratory syncytial virus and an epidemiologically-investigated SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in South Africa. Finally, we apply our transmission reconstruction tool to 5,692 outbreaks among the 134,682 Massachusetts genomes. Our methods and results demonstrate the utility of within-host variation for transmission inference of SARS-CoV-2 and other pathogens, and provide an adaptable mathematical framework for tracking within-host evolution.

Improving diagnosis of non-malarial fevers in Senegal: Borrelia and the contribution of tick-borne bacteria.

The worldwide decline in malaria incidence is revealing the extensive burden of non-malarial febrile illness (NMFI), which remains poorly understood and difficult to diagnose. To characterize NMFI in Senegal, we collected venous blood and clinical metadata from febrile patients and healthy controls in a low malaria burden area. Using 16S and unbiased sequencing, we detected viral, bacterial, or eukaryotic pathogens in 29% of NMFI cases. Bacteria were the most common, with relapsing fever Borrelia and spotted fever Rickettsia found in 15% and 3.7% of cases, respectively. Four viral pathogens were found in a total of 7 febrile cases (3.5%). Sequencing also detected undiagnosed Plasmodium, including one putative P. ovale infection. We developed a logistic regression model to distinguish Borrelia from NMFIs with similar presentation based on symptoms and vital signs. These results highlight the challenge and importance of improved diagnostics, especially for Borrelia, to support diagnosis and surveillance.

Metagenomic surveillance uncovers diverse and novel viral taxa in febrile patients from Nigeria.

Effective infectious disease surveillance in high-risk regions is critical for clinical care and pandemic preemption; however, few clinical diagnostics are available for the wide range of potential human pathogens. Here, we conduct unbiased metagenomic sequencing of 593 samples from febrile Nigerian patients collected in three settings: i) population-level surveillance of individuals presenting with symptoms consistent with Lassa Fever (LF); ii) real-time investigations of outbreaks with suspected infectious etiologies; and iii) undiagnosed clinically challenging cases. We identify 13 distinct viruses, including the second and third documented cases of human blood-associated dicistrovirus, and a highly divergent, unclassified dicistrovirus that we name human blood-associated dicistrovirus 2. We show that pegivirus C is a common co-infection in individuals with LF and is associated with lower Lassa viral loads and favorable outcomes. We help uncover the causes of three outbreaks as yellow fever virus, monkeypox virus, and a noninfectious cause, the latter ultimately determined to be pesticide poisoning. We demonstrate that a local, Nigerian-driven metagenomics response to complex public health scenarios generates accurate, real-time differential diagnoses, yielding insights that inform policy.

Malaria surveillance reveals parasite relatedness, signatures of selection, and correlates of transmission across Senegal.

Parasite genetic surveillance has the potential to play an important role in malaria control. We describe here an analysis of data from the first year of an ongoing, nationwide program of genetic surveillance of Plasmodium falciparum parasites in Senegal, intended to provide actionable information for malaria control efforts. Looking for a good proxy for local malaria incidence, we found that the best predictor was the proportion of polygenomic infections (those with multiple genetically distinct parasites), although that relationship broke down in very low incidence settings (r = 0.77 overall). The proportion of closely related parasites in a site was more weakly correlated ( r = -0.44) with incidence while the local genetic diversity was uninformative. Study of related parasites indicated their potential for discriminating local transmission patterns: two nearby study areas had similarly high fractions of relatives, but one area was dominated by clones and the other by outcrossed relatives. Throughout the country, 58% of related parasites proved to belong to a single network of relatives, within which parasites were enriched for shared haplotypes at known and suspected drug resistance loci as well as at one novel locus, reflective of ongoing selection pressure.

High-depth sequencing characterization of viral dynamics across tissues in fatal COVID-19 reveals compartmentalized infection.

SARS-CoV-2 distribution and circulation dynamics are not well understood due to challenges in assessing genomic data from tissue samples. We develop experimental and computational workflows for high-depth viral sequencing and high-resolution genomic analyses from formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tissues and apply them to 120 specimens from six subjects with fatal COVID-19. To varying degrees, viral RNA is present in extrapulmonary tissues from all subjects. The majority of the 180 viral variants identified within subjects are unique to individual tissue samples. We find more high-frequency (>10%) minor variants in subjects with a longer disease course, with one subject harboring ten such variants, exclusively in extrapulmonary tissues. One tissue-specific high-frequency variant was a nonsynonymous mutation in the furin-cleavage site of the spike protein. Our findings suggest adaptation and/or compartmentalized infection, illuminating the basis of extrapulmonary COVID-19 symptoms and potential for viral reservoirs, and have broad utility for investigating human pathogens.

The 2022 RSV surge was driven by multiple viral lineages.

The US experienced an early and severe respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) surge in autumn 2022. Despite the pressure this has put on hospitals and care centers, the factors promoting the surge in cases are unknown. To investigate whether viral characteristics contributed to the extent or severity of the surge, we sequenced 105 RSV-positive specimens from symptomatic patients diagnosed with RSV who presented to the Massachusetts General Hospital (MGH) and its outpatient practices in the Greater Boston Area. Genomic analysis of the resulting 77 genomes (54 with >80% coverage, and 23 with >5% coverage) demonstrated that the surge was driven by multiple lineages of RSV-A (91%; 70/77) and RSV-B (9%; 7/77). Phylogenetic analysis of all US RSV-A revealed 12 clades, 4 of which contained Massachusetts and Washington genomes. These clades individually had times to most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) between 2014 and 2017, and together had a tMRCA of 2009, suggesting that they emerged well before the COVID-19 pandemic. Similarly, the RSV-B genomes had a tMRCA between 2016 and 2019. We found that the RSV-A and RSV-B genomes in our sample did not differ statistically from the estimated clock rate of the larger phylogenetic tree (10.6 and 12.4 substitutions per year, respectively). In summary, the polyphyletic nature of viral genomes sequenced in the US during the autumn 2022 surge is inconsistent with the emergence of a single, highly transmissible causal RSV lineage.

Distinguishing Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Persistence and Reinfection: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) reinfection is poorly understood, partly because few studies have systematically applied genomic analysis to distinguish reinfection from persistent RNA detection related to initial infection. We aimed to evaluate the characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection and persistent RNA detection using independent genomic, clinical, and laboratory assessments. METHODS: All individuals at a large academic medical center who underwent a SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT) ≥45 days after an initial positive test, with both tests between 14 March and 30 December 2020, were analyzed for potential reinfection. Inclusion criteria required having ≥2 positive NAATs collected ≥45 days apart with a cycle threshold (Ct) value <35 at repeat testing. For each included subject, likelihood of reinfection was assessed by viral genomic analysis of all available specimens with a Ct value <35, structured Ct trajectory criteria, and case-by-case review by infectious diseases physicians. RESULTS: Among 1569 individuals with repeat SARS-CoV-2 testing ≥45 days after an initial positive NAAT, 65 (4%) met cohort inclusion criteria. Viral genomic analysis characterized mutations present and was successful for 14/65 (22%) subjects. Six subjects had genomically supported reinfection, and 8 subjects had genomically supported persistent RNA detection. Compared to viral genomic analysis, clinical and laboratory assessments correctly distinguished reinfection from persistent RNA detection in 12/14 (86%) subjects but missed 2/6 (33%) genomically supported reinfections. CONCLUSIONS: Despite good overall concordance with viral genomic analysis, clinical and Ct value-based assessments failed to identify 33% of genomically supported reinfections. Scaling-up genomic analysis for clinical use would improve detection of SARS-CoV-2 reinfections.

Analysis of 6.4 million SARS-CoV-2 genomes identifies mutations associated with fitness.

Repeated emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants with increased fitness underscores the value of rapid detection and characterization of new lineages. We have developed PyR0, a hierarchical Bayesian multinomial logistic regression model that infers relative prevalence of all viral lineages across geographic regions, detects lineages increasing in prevalence, and identifies mutations relevant to fitness. Applying PyR0 to all publicly available SARS-CoV-2 genomes, we identify numerous substitutions that increase fitness, including previously identified spike mutations and many nonspike mutations within the nucleocapsid and nonstructural proteins. PyR0 forecasts growth of new lineages from their mutational profile, ranks the fitness of lineages as new sequences become available, and prioritizes mutations of biological and public health concern for functional characterization.

Analysis of 6.4 million SARS-CoV-2 genomes identifies mutations associated with fitness.

Repeated emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants with increased fitness necessitates rapid detection and characterization of new lineages. To address this need, we developed PyR 0 , a hierarchical Bayesian multinomial logistic regression model that infers relative prevalence of all viral lineages across geographic regions, detects lineages increasing in prevalence, and identifies mutations relevant to fitness. Applying PyR 0 to all publicly available SARS-CoV-2 genomes, we identify numerous substitutions that increase fitness, including previously identified spike mutations and many non-spike mutations within the nucleocapsid and nonstructural proteins. PyR 0 forecasts growth of new lineages from their mutational profile, identifies viral lineages of concern as they emerge, and prioritizes mutations of biological and public health concern for functional characterization. ONE SENTENCE SUMMARY: A Bayesian hierarchical model of all SARS-CoV-2 viral genomes predicts lineage fitness and identifies associated mutations.

Transmission from vaccinated individuals in a large SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant outbreak.

An outbreak of over 1,000 COVID-19 cases in Provincetown, Massachusetts (MA), in July 2021-the first large outbreak mostly in vaccinated individuals in the US-prompted a comprehensive public health response, motivating changes to national masking recommendations and raising questions about infection and transmission among vaccinated individuals. To address these questions, we combined viral genomic and epidemiological data from 467 individuals, including 40% of outbreak-associated cases. The Delta variant accounted for 99% of cases in this dataset; it was introduced from at least 40 sources, but 83% of cases derived from a single source, likely through transmission across multiple settings over a short time rather than a single event. Genomic and epidemiological data supported multiple transmissions of Delta from and between fully vaccinated individuals. However, despite its magnitude, the outbreak had limited onward impact in MA and the US overall, likely due to high vaccination rates and a robust public health response.

Evidence of transmission from fully vaccinated individuals in a large outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant in Provincetown, Massachusetts.

Multiple summer events, including large indoor gatherings, in Provincetown, Massachusetts (MA), in July 2021 contributed to an outbreak of over one thousand COVID-19 cases among residents and visitors. Most cases were fully vaccinated, many of whom were also symptomatic, prompting a comprehensive public health response, motivating changes to national masking recommendations, and raising questions about infection and transmission among vaccinated individuals. To characterize the outbreak and the viral population underlying it, we combined genomic and epidemiological data from 467 individuals, including 40% of known outbreak-associated cases. The Delta variant accounted for 99% of sequenced outbreak-associated cases. Phylogenetic analysis suggests over 40 sources of Delta in the dataset, with one responsible for a single cluster containing 83% of outbreak-associated genomes. This cluster was likely not the result of extensive spread at a single site, but rather transmission from a common source across multiple settings over a short time. Genomic and epidemiological data combined provide strong support for 25 transmission events from, including many between, fully vaccinated individuals; genomic data alone provides evidence for an additional 64. Together, genomic epidemiology provides a high-resolution picture of the Provincetown outbreak, revealing multiple cases of transmission of Delta from fully vaccinated individuals. However, despite its magnitude, the outbreak was restricted in its onward impact in MA and the US, likely due to high vaccination rates and a robust public health response.

Development of a qualitative real-time RT-PCR assay for the detection of SARS-CoV-2: a guide and case study in setting up an emergency-use, laboratory-developed molecular microbiological assay.

Developing and deploying new diagnostic tests are difficult, but the need to do so in response to a rapidly emerging pandemic such as COVID-19 is crucially important. During a pandemic, laboratories play a key role in helping healthcare providers and public health authorities detect active infection, a task most commonly achieved using nucleic acid-based assays. While the landscape of diagnostics is rapidly evolving, PCR remains the gold-standard of nucleic acid-based diagnostic assays, in part due to its reliability, flexibility and wide deployment. To address a critical local shortage of testing capacity persisting during the COVID-19 outbreak, our hospital set up a molecular-based laboratory developed test (LDT) to accurately and safely diagnose SARS-CoV-2. We describe here the process of developing an emergency-use LDT, in the hope that our experience will be useful to other laboratories in future outbreaks and will help to lower barriers to establishing fast and accurate diagnostic testing in crisis conditions.