Epidemiological Assessment of African Swine Fever Spread in the Dominican Republic.

Since African Swine Fever (ASF) was detected in the Dominican Republic in July 2021, it has negatively impacted the country's swine industry. Assessing the epidemiological situation is crucial to helping local authorities and industry stakeholders control the disease. Here, data on 155 reported outbreaks in the Dominican Republic from November 2022 to June 2023 were evaluated. Descriptive spatiotemporal analysis was performed to characterize disease distribution and spread, and between-herd R0 was calculated for the study period. The Knox test and a space-time permutation model were used to evaluate clustering. Data on clinical presentation, biosecurity measures, and suspected reasons for introduction were categorized and summarized. The majority (78%) of outbreaks occurred on backyard farms which generally had low biosecurity. Across farm types, the majority of pigs were still alive at the time of depopulation. Spatiotemporal findings and R0 estimates suggest an endemic pattern of disease geographically located centrally within the country. Clustering was detected even at small temporal and spatial distances due to outbreaks amongst neighboring backyard farms. These results provide critical information on the current state of the ASF epidemic in the Dominican Republic and will aid government officials and swine industry leaders in developing effective ASF control strategies.

A qualitative assessment of alternative eradication strategies for African swine fever in the Dominican Republic.

Since its recent detection in July 2021, the reintroduction of African swine fever (ASF) in the Dominican Republic (DR) has generated much discourse on various measures for its effective control. Strategies range from complete depopulation of the swine population, as was done in 1978, to a system of passive surveillance with endemicity, with many in-between. Currently, ASF-decision makers need a peer evaluation and comparison and contrast of these potential strategies that incorporates both private and public perspectives. To achieve this, we used strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) analysis to evaluate three different theoretical ASF control scenarios with the aim of contributing evaluations of alternatives strategies to mitigate the epidemic's impact. These included total depopulation of all pigs in the DR, partial depopulation, and continuation of current control measures. Relevant experts from the DR private swine industry were identified through "snowball sampling" techniques. Five experts completed the SWOT questionnaire and additional questions considering aspects of financial cost, social impact, feasibility, animal welfare, and regional policy. The summarized responses were presented to the full group of experts initially nominated for final review and later to representatives of the DR government. The SWOT analysis highlighted that although there are certain benefits associated with each of the proposed strategies, there are also important drawbacks and disadvantages for all. This analysis is a tool for facilitating cooperating between the private-public industries, and ultimately it supports the development of strategies that will reduce ASF burden in the DR in a way suitable for all relevant stakeholders.