Socio-economic and food system drivers of nutrition and health transitions in The Gambia from 1990 to 2017.

In common with many nations undergoing a nutrition transition, micronutrient deficiencies, undernutrition and overnutrition coexist in The Gambia. Addressing these challenges simultaneously would require transformational changes in the country's food system. However, the evidence base that would enable informed decision-making in the Gambian food system has been scant, despite several sources of routinely-collected data being available. This descriptive study brings together data from four open-access global databases on food supply, political, economic, and demographic variables, and nutrition and health between 1990 and 2017 to study potential leverage points for improvement in the food system. It compares trends in food supply and nutritional outcomes in The Gambia against regional and global averages, and identifies potential drivers taken from a food systems framework. The data show that, over the past three decades, total energy supply has increased, and obesity is rising quickly, but iron deficiency persists in a proportion of the population. Overall diet composition is poor, with lower availability of fruit and vegetables and higher supply of sugar and oils compared to regional and global averages. Domestic production is low for most food groups and so a high dependence on imports from other countries bridges the gap in terms of energy supply. Measures of economic development, particularly GDP, were positively related with supply of cereals and animal source foods over time, but no such relationship was observed with fruit and vegetable supply. Food system policy to improve nutrition and health outcomes in The Gambia needs to focus on improving the diversity of food supply - especially fruit and vegetables - and maximizing national domestic production to reduce reliance on food imports. The use of open-source global datasets can be feasible in exploring food system characteristics and trends at the national level and could be applied in other contexts.

Adherence to EAT-Lancet dietary recommendations for health and sustainability in the Gambia.

Facilitating dietary change is pivotal to improving population health, increasing food system resilience, and minimizing adverse impacts on the environment, but assessment of the current 'status-quo' and identification of bottlenecks for improvement has been lacking to date. We assessed deviation of the Gambian diet from the EAT-Lancet guidelines for healthy and sustainable diets and identified leverage points to improve nutritional and planetary health. We analysed the 2015/16 Gambian Integrated Household Survey dataset comprising food consumption data from 12 713 households. Consumption of different food groups was compared against the EAT-Lancet reference diet targets to assess deviation from the guidelines. We computed a 'sustainable and healthy diet index (SHDI)' based on deviation of different food groups from the EAT-Lancet recommendations and modelled the socio-economic and geographic determinants of households that achieved higher scores on this index, using multivariable mixed effects regression. The average Gambian diet had very low adherence to EAT-Lancet recommendations. The diet was dominated by refined grains and added sugars which exceeded the recommendations. SHDI scores for nutritionally important food groups such as fruits, vegetables, nuts, dairy, poultry, and beef and lamb were low. Household characteristics associated with higher SHDI scores included: being a female-headed household, having a relatively small household size, having a schooled head of the household, having a high wealth index, and residing in an urban settlement. Furthermore, diets reported in the dry season and households with high crop production diversity showed increased adherence to the targets. While average Gambian diets include lower amounts of food groups with harmful environmental footprint, they are also inadequate in healthy food groups and are high in sugar. There are opportunities to improve diets without increasing their environmental footprint by focusing on the substitution of refined grains by wholegrains, reducing sugar and increasing fruit and vegetables consumption.

Meeting report: plant-rich dietary patterns and health.

Dietary patterns (DP) rich in plant foods are associated with improved health and reduced non-communicable disease risk. In October 2021, the Nutrition Society hosted a member-led conference, held online over 2 half days, exploring the latest research findings examining plant-rich DP and health. The aim of the present paper is to summarise the content of the conference and synopses of the individual speaker presentations are included. Topics included epidemiological analysis of plant-rich DP and health outcomes, the effects of dietary interventions which have increased fruit and vegetable (FV) intake on a range of health outcomes, how adherence to plant-rich DP is assessed, the use of biomarkers to assess FV intake and a consideration of how modifying behaviour towards increased FV intake could impact environmental outcomes, planetary health and food systems. In conclusion, although there are still considerable uncertainties which require further research, which were considered as part of the conference and are summarised in this review, adopting a plant-rich DP at a population level could have a considerable impact on diet and health outcomes, as well as planetary health.

The role of plant-based alternative foods in sustainable and healthy food systems: Consumption trends in the UK.

A global transformation towards sustainable food systems is crucial for delivering on climate change mitigation targets worldwide. In high- and middle-income settings, plant-based meat and dairy alternatives present potential substitutes for animal sourced foods, and a pathway to transition to more sustainable diets. We examined plant-based alternative foods (PBAF) consumption trends in the UK by analysing repeated cross-sectional food consumption data from the National Diet and Nutrition Survey 2008-2019. Dietary data for 15,655 individuals aged 1.5 years and over were analysed to assess aggregate change in intake of PBAF and six other food groups that play a role in transformative dietary change. Characteristics associated with consumption of PBAF were explored using logistic regression, and consumption patterns in high and low meat consumers were explored by examining intake of potential animal product substitute food groups. The proportion of individuals reporting consumption of any PBAFs increased from 6.7% in 2008-2011, to 13.1% in 2017-2019 (p < 0.01). Compared to 2008-2011 PBAF consumption rose by 115% in 2017-2019 (p < 0.01). Females were 46% more likely than males to report consumption of PBAF (p < 0.01). Millennials (age 24-39 years) were the most likely generation to report PBAF consumption (p < 0.01 compared to generation Z (age 11-23 years) and traditionalists (age 75+ years)), as were individuals of the highest income tertile (p < 0.01). Among "low meat consumers", PBAF consumption was on average higher than "high meat consumers" (18.6 g versus 4.8 g PBAF per day, p < 0.01). Our results support the hypothesis of a pivotal role of PBAF in the transition towards sustainable food systems in the UK, by demonstrating they are becoming increasingly popular among UK consumers. This highlights the urgent need to assess in detail the environmental and health impacts of large scale and population-wide consumption of PBAF in comparison to their animal-based equivalents.

Characteristics of Distinct Dietary Patterns in Rural Bangladesh: Nutrient Adequacy and Vulnerability to Shocks.

Food security in Bangladesh has improved in recent years, but the country is now facing a double burden of malnutrition while also being highly vulnerable to climate change. Little is known about how this may affect food supply to different sectors of the population. To inform this, we used a national dietary survey of 800 rural households to define dietary patterns using latent class analysis. Nutrient adequacy of dietary patterns and their potential vulnerability to climate shocks (based on diversity of calorie sources) were assessed. We fitted mixed effects logistic regression models to identify factors associated with dietary patterns. Four dietary patterns were identified: rice and low diversity; wheat and high diversity; pulses and vegetables; meat and fish. The wheat and high diversity and meat and fish patterns tended to be consumed by households with higher levels of wealth and education, while the rice and low diversity pattern was consumed by households with lower levels of wealth and education. The pulses and vegetables pattern was consumed by households of intermediate socio-economic status. While energy intake was high, fat and protein intake were suboptimal for all patterns except for the wheat and high diversity pattern. All patterns had fruit and vegetable intake below the WHO recommendation. The wheat and high diversity pattern was least vulnerable to shocks, while the rice and low diversity pattern was the most vulnerable, relying mainly on single cereal staples. The diets showed "double vulnerability" where the nutrient inadequate patterns were also those most vulnerable to shocks.

The effects on public health of climate change adaptation responses: a systematic review of evidence from low- and middle-income countries.

Climate change adaptation responses are being developed and delivered in many parts of the world in the absence of detailed knowledge of their effects on public health. Here we present the results of a systematic review of peer-reviewed literature reporting the effects on health of climate change adaptation responses in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The review used the 'Global Adaptation Mapping Initiative' database (comprising 1682 publications related to climate change adaptation responses) that was constructed through systematic literature searches in Scopus, Web of Science and Google Scholar (2013-2020). For this study, further screening was performed to identify studies from LMICs reporting the effects on human health of climate change adaptation responses. Studies were categorised by study design and data were extracted on geographic region, population under investigation, type of adaptation response and reported health effects. The review identified 99 studies (1117 reported outcomes), reporting evidence from 66 LMICs. Only two studies were ex ante formal evaluations of climate change adaptation responses. Papers reported adaptation responses related to flooding, rainfall, drought and extreme heat, predominantly through behaviour change, and infrastructural and technological improvements. Reported (direct and intermediate) health outcomes included reduction in infectious disease incidence, improved access to water/sanitation and improved food security. All-cause mortality was rarely reported, and no papers were identified reporting on maternal and child health. Reported maladaptations were predominantly related to widening of inequalities and unforeseen co-harms. Reporting and publication-bias seems likely with only 3.5% of all 1117 health outcomes reported to be negative. Our review identified some evidence that climate change adaptation responses may have benefits for human health but the overall paucity of evidence is concerning and represents a major missed opportunity for learning. There is an urgent need for greater focus on the funding, design, evaluation and standardised reporting of the effects on health of climate change adaptation responses to enable evidence-based policy action.

Systematic mapping of global research on climate and health: a machine learning review.

BACKGROUND: The global literature on the links between climate change and human health is large, increasing exponentially, and it is no longer feasible to collate and synthesise using traditional systematic evidence mapping approaches. We aimed to use machine learning methods to systematically synthesise an evidence base on climate change and human health. METHODS: We used supervised machine learning and other natural language processing methods (topic modelling and geoparsing) to systematically identify and map the scientific literature on climate change and health published between Jan 1, 2013, and April 9, 2020. Only literature indexed in English were included. We searched Web of Science Core Collection, Scopus, and PubMed using title, abstract, and keywords only. We searched for papers including both a health component and an explicit mention of either climate change, climate variability, or climate change-relevant weather phenomena. We classified relevant publications according to the fields of climate research, climate drivers, health impact, date, and geography. We used supervised and unsupervised machine learning to identify and classify relevant articles in the field of climate and health, with outputs including evidence heat maps, geographical maps, and narrative synthesis of trends in climate health-related publications. We included empirical literature of any study design that reported on health pathways associated with climate impacts, mitigation, or adaptation. FINDINGS: We predict that there are 15 963 studies in the field of climate and health published between 2013 and 2019. Climate health literature is dominated by impact studies, with mitigation and adaptation responses and their co-benefits and co-risks remaining niche topics. Air quality and heat stress are the most frequently studied exposures, with all-cause mortality and infectious disease incidence being the most frequently studied health outcomes. Seasonality, extreme weather events, heat, and weather variability are the most frequently studied climate-related hazards. We found major gaps in evidence on climate health research for mental health, undernutrition, and maternal and child health. Geographically, the evidence base is dominated by studies from high-income countries and China, with scant evidence from low-income counties, which often suffer most from the health consequences of climate change. INTERPRETATION: Our findings show the importance and feasibility of using automated machine learning to comprehensively map the science on climate change and human health in the age of big literature. These can provide key inputs into global climate and health assessments. The scant evidence on climate change response options is concerning and could significantly hamper the design of evidence-based pathways to reduce the effects on health of climate change. In the post-2015 Paris Agreement era of climate solutions, we believe much more attention should be given to climate adaptation and mitigation options and their effects on human health. FUNDING: Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office.

Changes in take-home aerated soft drink purchases in urban India after the implementation of Goods and Services Tax (GST): An interrupted time series analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) are increasingly being implemented as public health interventions to limit the consumption of sugar and reduce associated health risks. In July 2017, India imposed a new tax rate on aerated (carbonated) drinks as part of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) reform. This study investigates the post-GST changes in the purchase of aerated drinks in urban India. METHODS: An interrupted time series analysis was conducted on state-level monthly take-home purchases of aerated drinks in urban India from January 2013 to June 2018. We assessed changes in the year-on-year growth rate (i.e. percentage change) in aerated drink purchases with controls for contextual variables. RESULTS: We found no evidence of a reduction in state-level monthly take-home aerated drink purchases in urban India following the implementation of GST. Further analysis showed that the year-on-year growth rate in aerated drink purchases increased slightly (0.1 percentage point per month, 95%CI = 0.018, 0.181) after the implementation of GST; however, this trend was temporary and decreased over time (0.008 percentage point per month, 95%CI = -0.015, -0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In India, a country currently with low aerated drink consumption, the implementation of GST was not associated with a reduction in aerated drink purchase in urban settings. Due to the lack of accurate and sufficiently detailed price data, it is not possible to say whether this finding is driven by prices not changing sufficiently. Furthermore, the impact of GST reform on industry practice (reformulation, marketing) and individual behaviour choices (substitution) is unknown and warrants further investigation to understand how such taxes could be implemented to deliver public health benefits.

Pathways to "5-a-day": modeling the health impacts and environmental footprints of meeting the target for fruit and vegetable intake in the United Kingdom.

BACKGROUND: Fruit and vegetable consumption in the United Kingdom is currently well below recommended levels, with a significant associated public health burden. The United Kingdom has committed to reducing its carbon emissions to net zero by 2050, and this transition will require shifts towards plant-based diets. OBJECTIVE: The aim was to quantify the health effects, environmental footprints, and cost associated with 4 different pathways to meeting the United Kingdom's "5-a-day" recommendation for fruit and vegetable consumption. METHODS: Dietary data based on 18,006 food diaries from 4528 individuals participating in the UK National Diet and Nutrition Survey (2012/13-2016/17) constituted the baseline diet. Linear programming was used to model the hypothetical adoption of the 5-a-day (400 g) recommendation, which was assessed according to 4 pathways differing in their prioritization of fruits versus vegetables and UK-produced versus imported varieties. Increases in fruit and vegetable consumption were substituted for consumption of sweet snacks and meat, respectively. Changes in life expectancy were assessed using the IOMLIFET life table model. Greenhouse gas emissions (GHGEs), blue water footprint (WF), and total diet cost were quantified for each 5-a-day diet. RESULTS: Achieving the 5-a-day target in the United Kingdom could increase average life expectancy at birth by 7-8 mo and reduce diet-related GHGEs by 6.1 to 12.2 Mt carbon dioxide equivalents/y; blue WFs would change by -0.14 to +0.07 km3/y. Greater reductions in GHGEs were achieved by prioritizing increased vegetable consumption over fruit, whereas the greatest reduction in WF was obtained by prioritizing vegetable varieties produced in the United Kingdom. All consumption pathways increased diet cost (£0.34-£0.46/d). CONCLUSIONS: Benefits to both population and environmental health could be expected from consumption pathways that meet the United Kingdom's 5-a-day target for fruit and vegetables. Our analysis identifies cross-sectoral trade-offs and opportunities for national policy to promote fruit and vegetable consumption in the United Kingdom.

Improving the use of focus group discussions in low income settings.

BACKGROUND: The quality of data obtained through Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) is highly dependent on appropriate design and facilitation. In low-income settings steep power gradients between researcher and participants, as well as conversational norms, could reduce the ability of participants to voice personal opinions. Activity-oriented exercises have been suggested as a way overcoming these challenges, however little evidence exists - to date - on their use in low-income settings. We selected six exercises for use in Ethiopia and Nigeria and report our experiences. METHODS: The six exercises (picture sorting, associative pictures, picture ranking, decision trees, predictive story-telling and provocative statements) were used in 32 maternal and new-born care themed FGDs conducted in Amhara and Southern Nations Nationalities and People's Regions (Ethiopia) and Gombe State (Nigeria). Six facilitators and two supervisors who used these exercises were interviewed about their experiences. FGD verbatim transcripts and interview notes were analysed to explore methodological effectiveness and respondents' experience. All data were coded in NVIVO using a deductive coding frame. RESULTS: Facilitators and participants described the methods as 'fun' and 'enjoyable'. The exercises yielded more in-depth and complete information than 'normal' FGDs, but facilitator's probing skills and overall FGD group dynamics proved crucial in this success. Explaining and conducting the exercises increased FGD length. Data richness, participant reaction and understanding, and ease of facilitation varied by study site, exercise, and participant group. Overall, the exercises worked better in Nigeria than in Ethiopia. The provocative statement exercise was most difficult for participants to understand, the decision-tree most difficult to facilitate and the picture exercises most enjoyable. The story telling exercise took relatively little time, was well understood, yielded rich data and reduced social desirability bias. DISCUSSION: The majority of the exercises proved successful tools in yielding richer and less biased information from FGDs and were experienced as fun and engaging. Tailoring of the exercises, as well as thorough training and selection of the facilitators, were pivotal in this success. The difference in the two countries shows that adequate piloting and adaptation is crucial, and that some exercises may not be adaptable to all settings.

The impact of environmental changes on the yield and nutritional quality of fruits, nuts and seeds: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Environmental changes are predicted to threaten human health, agricultural production and food security. Whilst their impact has been evaluated for major cereals, legumes and vegetables, no systematic evidence synthesis has been performed to date evaluating impact of environmental change on fruits, nuts and seeds (FN&S) - valuable sources of nutrients and pivotal in reducing risks of non-communicable disease. METHODS: We systematically searched seven databases, identifying available published literature (1970-2018) evaluating impacts of water availability and salinity, temperature, carbon dioxide (CO2) and ozone (O3) on yields and nutritional quality of FN&S. Dose-response relationships were assessed and, where possible, mean yield changes relative to baseline conditions were calculated. RESULTS: 81 papers on fruits and 24 papers on nuts and seeds were identified, detailing 582 and 167 experiments respectively. A 50% reduction in water availability and a 3-4dS/m increase in water salinity resulted in significant fruit yield reductions (mean yield changes: -20.7% [95%CI -43.1% to -1.7%]; and -28.2% [95%CI -53.0% to -3.4%] respectively). A 75-100% increase in CO2 concentrations resulted in positive yield impacts (+37.8%; [95%CI 4.1% to 71.5%]; and 10.1%; [95%CI -30.0% to 50.3%] for fruits and nuts respectively). Evidence on yield impacts of increased O3 concentrations and elevated temperatures (>25°C) was scarce, but consistently negative. The positive effect of elevated CO2 levels appeared to attenuate with simultaneous exposure to elevated temperatures. Data on impacts of environmental change on nutritional quality of FN&S were sparse, with mixed results. DISCUSSION: In the absence of adaptation strategies, predicted environmental changes will reduce yields of FN&S. With global intake already well-below WHO recommendations, declining FN&S yields may adversely affect population health. Adaptation strategies and careful agricultural and food system planning will be essential to optimise crop productivity in the context of future environmental changes, thereby supporting and safeguarding sustainable and resilient food systems.

Trading water: virtual water flows through interstate cereal trade in India.

Cereals are an important component of the Indian diet, providing 47% of the daily dietary energy intake. Dwindling groundwater reserves in India especially in major cereal-growing regions are an increasing challenge to national food supply. An improved understanding of interstate cereal trade can help to identify potential risks to national food security. Here, we quantify the trade between Indian states of five major cereals and the associated trade in virtual (or embedded) water. To do this, we modelled interstate trade of cereals using Indian government data on supply and demand; calculated virtual water use of domestic cereal production using state- and product-specific water footprints and state-level data on irrigation source; and incorporated virtual water used in the production of internationally-imported cereals using country-specific water footprints. We estimate that 40% (94 million tonnes) of total cereal food supply was traded between Indian states in 2011-12, corresponding to a trade of 54.0 km3 of embedded blue water, and 99.4 km3 of embedded green water. Of the cereals traded within India, 41% were produced in states with over-exploited groundwater reserves (defined according to the Central Ground Water Board) and a further 21% in states with critically depleting groundwater reserves. Our analysis indicates a high dependency of Indian cereal consumption on production in states with stressed groundwater reserves. Substantial changes in agricultural practices and land use may be required to secure future production, trade and availability of cereals in India. Diversifying production systems could increase the resilience of India's food system.

United Kingdom's fruit and vegetable supply is increasingly dependent on imports from climate-vulnerable producing countries.

The contribution of domestic production to total fruit and vegetable supply in the UK decreased from 42% in 1987 to 22% in 2013. The impact of this changing pattern of UK fruit and vegetable imports from countries with different vulnerabilities to projected climate change on the resilience of the UK food system is currently unknown. Here, we used the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) bilateral trade database over a period of 27 years to estimate changes in fruit and vegetable supply in the UK and the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative (ND-GAIN) climate vulnerability categories to assess the climate vulnerability of countries supplying fruit and vegetables to the UK. The diversity of fruit and vegetable supply has increased. In 1987, 21 crops constituted the top 80% of all fruit and vegetables supplied to the UK; in 2013, it was 34 crops. The contribution of tropical fruits has rapidly increased while that of more traditional vegetables, such as cabbages and carrots, has declined. The proportion of fruit and vegetables supplied to the UK market from climate-vulnerable countries increased from 20% in 1987 to 32% in 2013. Sensitivity analyses using climatic and freshwater availability indicators supported these findings. Increased reliance on fruit and vegetable imports from climate-vulnerable countries could negatively affect the availability, price and consumption of fruit and vegetables in the UK, affecting dietary intake and health, particularly of older people and low-income households. Inter-sectoral actions across agriculture, health, environment and trade are critical in both the UK and countries that export to the UK to increase the resilience of the food system and support population health.

The Water Footprint of Diets: A Global Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

Agricultural water requirements differ between foods. Population-level dietary preferences are therefore a major determinant of agricultural water use. The "water footprint" (WF) represents the volume of water consumed in the production of food items, separated by water source; blue WF represents ground and surface water use, and green WF represents rain water use. We systematically searched for published studies using the WF to assess the water use of diets. We used the available evidence to quantify the WF of diets in different countries, and grouped diets in patterns according to study definition. "Average" patterns equated to those currently consumed, whereas "healthy" patterns included those recommended in national dietary guidelines. We searched 7 online databases and identified 41 eligible studies that reported the dietary green WF, blue WF, or total WF (green plus blue) (1964 estimates for 176 countries). The available evidence suggests that, on average, European (170 estimates) and Oceanian (18 estimates) dietary patterns have the highest green WFs (median per capita: 2999 L/d and 2924 L/d, respectively), whereas Asian dietary patterns (98 estimates) have the highest blue WFs (median: 382 L/d per capita). Foods of animal origin are major contributors to the green WFs of diets, whereas cereals, fruits, nuts, and oils are major contributors to the blue WF of diets. "Healthy" dietary patterns (425 estimates) had green WFs that were 5.9% (95% CI: -7.7, -4.0) lower than those of "average" dietary patterns, but they did not differ in their blue WFs. Our review suggests that changes toward healthier diets could reduce total water use of agriculture, but would not affect blue water use. Rapid dietary change and increasing water security concerns underscore the need for a better understanding of the amount and type of water used in food production to make informed policy decisions.

Potential impact on prevalence of obesity in the UK of a 20% price increase in high sugar snacks: modelling study.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the potential impact on body mass index (BMI) and prevalence of obesity of a 20% price increase in high sugar snacks. DESIGN: Modelling study. SETTING: General adult population of the United Kingdom. PARTICIPANTS: 36 324 households with data on product level household expenditure from UK Kantar FMCG (fast moving consumer goods) panel for January 2012 to December 2013. Data were used to estimate changes in energy (kcal, 1 kcal=4.18 kJ=0.00418 MJ) purchase associated with a 20% price increase in high sugar snacks. Data for 2544 adults from waves 5 to 8 of the National Diet and Nutrition Survey (2012-16) were used to estimate resulting changes in BMI and prevalence of obesity. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The effect on per person take home energy purchases of a 20% price increase for three categories of high sugar snacks: confectionery (including chocolate), biscuits, and cakes. Health outcomes resulting from the price increase were measured as changes in weight, BMI (not overweight (BMI <25), overweight (BMI ≥25 and <30), and obese (BMI ≥30)), and prevalence of obesity. Results were stratified by household income and BMI. RESULTS: For income groups combined, the average reduction in energy consumption for a 20% price increase in high sugar snacks was estimated to be 8.9×103 kcal (95% confidence interval -13.1×103 to -4.2×103 kcal). Using a static weight loss model, BMI was estimated to decrease by 0.53 (95% confidence interval -1.01 to -0.06) on average across all categories and income groups. This change could reduce the UK prevalence of obesity by 2.7 percentage points (95% confidence interval -3.7 to -1.7 percentage points) after one year. The impact of a 20% price increase in high sugar snacks on energy purchase was largest in low income households classified as obese and smallest in high income households classified as not overweight. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing the price of high sugar snacks by 20% could reduce energy intake, BMI, and prevalence of obesity. This finding was in a UK context and was double that modelled for a similar price increase in sugar sweetened beverages.

The effects of crop diversity and crop type on biological diversity in agricultural landscapes: a systematic review protocol.

Agricultural intensification is a well-known driver of biodiversity loss. Crop diversity and its changes over space and time drive land use intensity and impact biodiversity of agricultural landscapes, while meeting the growing demand for human food and nutrition resources. Loss of biodiversity in agricultural landscapes reduces primary productivity and soil health and erodes a range of other ecosystem services. At present, while having partial understanding of many processes, we lack a general synthesis of our knowledge of the links between crop diversity and biodiversity. We will therefore conduct a systematic review by searching multiple agriculture, ecology and environmental science databases (e.g. Web of Science, Geobase, Agris, AGRICOLA, GreenFILE) to identify studies reporting the impacts of crop diversity and crop type on the biological diversity of fauna and flora in agricultural landscapes. Response variables will include metrics of species richness, abundance, assemblage, community composition and species rarity. Screening, data coding and data extraction will be carried out by one researcher and a subset will be independently carried out by a second researcher for quality control. Study quality and risk of bias will be assessed. Evidence will first be mapped to species/taxa then assessed for further narrative or statistical synthesis based on comparability of results and likely robustness. Gaps in the evidence base will also be identified with a view toward future research and policy directions for nutrition, food systems and ecology.

Effect of environmental changes on vegetable and legume yields and nutritional quality.

Environmental changes threaten agricultural production, food security, and health. Previous reviews suggest that environmental changes will substantially affect future yields of starchy dietary staples. To date, no comprehensive global analysis of the impacts of environmental change on (nonstaple) vegetables and legumes-important constituents of healthy diets-has been reported. We systematically searched for articles published between 1975 and 2016 on the effects of ambient temperature, tropospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), and ozone (O3) concentrations, water availability, and salinization on yields and nutritional quality of vegetables and legumes. We estimated mean effects of standardized environmental changes using observed exposure-response relationships and conducted meta-analyses where possible. We identified 174 relevant papers reporting 1,540 experiments. The mean (95% CI) reported yield changes for all vegetables and legumes combined were +22.0% (+11.6% to +32.5%) for a 250-ppm increase in CO2 concentration, -8.9% (-15.6% to -2.2%) for a 25% increase in O3 concentration,-34.7% (-44.6% to -24.9%) for a 50% reduction in water availability, and -2.3% (-3.7% to -0.9%) for a 25% increase in salinity. In papers with baseline temperatures >20 °C, a 4 °C increase in temperature reduced mean yields by -31.5% (-41.4% to -21.5%). Impacts of environmental changes on nutritional quality were mixed. In a business-as-usual scenario, predicted changes in environmental exposures would lead to reductions in yields of nonstaple vegetables and legumes. Where adaptation possibilities are limited, this may substantially change their global availability, affordability, and consumption in the mid to long term. Our results stress the importance of prioritizing agricultural developments, to minimize potential reductions in vegetable and legume yields and associated negative health effects.

Effects of environmental change on population nutrition and health: A comprehensive framework with a focus on fruits and vegetables.

Environmental changes are likely to affect agricultural production over the next 20-30 years. The interactions between environmental change, agricultural yields and crop quality, and the critical pathways to future diets and health outcomes remain largely undefined. There are currently no quantitative models to test the impact of multiple environmental changes on nutrition and health outcomes. Using an interdisciplinary approach, we developed a framework to link the multiple interactions between environmental change, agricultural productivity and crop quality, population-level food availability, dietary intake and health outcomes, with a specific focus on fruits and vegetables. The main components of the framework consist of: i) socio-economic and societal factors, ii) environmental change stressors, iii) interventions and policies, iv) food system activities, v) food and nutrition security, and vi) health and well-being outcomes. The framework, based on currently available evidence, provides an overview of the multidimensional and complex interactions between environmental change, diets and health, and forms the analytical baseline for future modelling and scenario testing. The framework identifies the inter-sectoral datasets and models that need to be defined and populated to assess the impacts of environmental change on agricultural production, food availability, nutrition and population health.