Opportunities and Challenges of Prognostic Models for Extremely Preterm Infants.

Predicting the short- and long-term outcomes of extremely preterm infants remains a challenge. Multivariable prognostic models might be valuable tools for clinicians, parents, and policymakers for providing accurate outcome estimates. In this perspective, we discuss the opportunities and challenges of using prognostic models in extremely preterm infants at population and individual levels. At a population level, these models could support the development of guidelines for decisions about treatment limits and may support policy processes such as benchmarking and resource allocation. At an individual level, these models may enhance prenatal counselling conversations by considering multiple variables and improving transparency about expected outcomes. Furthermore, they may improve consistency in projections shared with parents. For the development of prognostic models, we discuss important considerations such as predictor and outcome measure selection, clinical impact assessment, and generalizability. Lastly, future recommendations for developing and using prognostic models are suggested. Importantly, the purpose of a prognostic model should be clearly defined, and integrating these models into prenatal counselling requires thoughtful consideration.

Indicators for Cervical Length in Twin Pregnancies.

OBJECTIVE: Cervical length (CL) is associated with the risk of preterm birth (PTB) in multiple pregnancies. However, the position of CL within the pathophysiological pathway of PTB is unclear, and it is unknown which factors are predictive for CL. This study aims to investigate whether in twin pregnancies baseline maternal and obstetrical characteristics are potential indicators for CL, to improve insight in the pathophysiological pathway of PTB. STUDY DESIGN: Secondary analysis of data on twin pregnancies and CL measurement between 16 and 22 weeks. A set of 10 potential indicators, known to be associated with an increased risk of PTB and/or which have a plausible mechanism resulting in a change of CL were selected. We used multivariable linear regression with backward selection to identify independent indicators for CL. RESULTS: A total of 1,447 women with twin pregnancies were included. Mean CL was 43.7 (±8.9) mm. In multivariable analysis, age (0.27 mm/y; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.16 to 0.39), use of assisted reproductive technologies (ART) (-1.42 mm, 95% CI -2.6 to -0.25), and having delivered at term in a previous pregnancy (1.32 mm, 95% CI 0.25 to 2.39) were significantly associated with CL. CONCLUSION: This study shows that in twin pregnancies, age, use of ART and having delivered term in a previous pregnancy has an association with CL.

Maternal allopurinol administration during suspected fetal hypoxia: a novel neuroprotective intervention? A multicentre randomised placebo controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether maternal allopurinol treatment during suspected fetal hypoxia would reduce the release of biomarkers associated with neonatal brain damage. DESIGN: A randomised double-blind placebo controlled multicentre trial. PATIENTS: We studied women in labour at term with clinical indices of fetal hypoxia, prompting immediate delivery. SETTING: Delivery rooms of 11 Dutch hospitals. INTERVENTION: When immediate delivery was foreseen based on suspected fetal hypoxia, women were allocated to receive allopurinol 500 mg intravenous (ALLO) or placebo intravenous (CONT). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary endpoint was the difference in cord S100ß, a tissue-specific biomarker for brain damage. RESULTS: 222 women were randomised to receive allopurinol (ALLO, n=111) or placebo (CONT, n=111). Cord S100ß was not significantly different between the two groups: 44.5 pg/mL (IQR 20.2-71.4) in the ALLO group versus 54.9 pg/mL (IQR 26.8-94.7) in the CONT group (difference in median -7.69 (95% CI -24.9 to 9.52)). Post hoc subgroup analysis showed a potential treatment effect of allopurinol on the proportion of infants with a cord S100ß value above the 75th percentile in girls (ALLO n=5 (12%) vs CONT n=10 (31%); risk ratio (RR) 0.37 (95% CI 0.14 to 0.99)) but not in boys (ALLO n=18 (32%) vs CONT n=15 (25%); RR 1.4 (95% CI 0.84 to 2.3)). Also, cord neuroketal levels were significantly lower in girls treated with allopurinol as compared with placebo treated girls: 18.0 pg/mL (95% CI 12.1 to 26.9) in the ALLO group versus 32.2 pg/mL (95% CI 22.7 to 45.7) in the CONT group (geometric mean difference -16.4 (95% CI -24.6 to -1.64)). CONCLUSIONS: Maternal treatment with allopurinol during fetal hypoxia did not significantly lower neuronal damage markers in cord blood. Post hoc analysis revealed a potential beneficial treatment effect in girls. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT00189007, Dutch Trial Register NTR1383.

Cervical pessaries for prevention of preterm birth in women with a multiple pregnancy (ProTWIN): a multicentre, open-label randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: In women with a multiple pregnancy, spontaneous preterm delivery is the leading cause of perinatal morbidity and mortality. Interventions to reduce preterm birth in these women have not been successful. We assessed whether a cervical pessary could effectively prevent poor perinatal outcomes. METHODS: We undertook a multicentre, open-label randomised controlled trial in 40 hospitals in the Netherlands. We randomly assigned women with a multiple pregnancy between 12 and 20 weeks' gestation (1:1) to pessary or control groups, using a web-based application with a computer-generated list with random block sizes of two to four, stratified by hospital. Participants and investigators were aware of group allocation. For women in the pessary group, a midwife or obstetrician inserted a cervical pessary between 16 and 20 weeks' gestation. Women in the control group did not receive the pessary, but otherwise received similar obstetrical care to those in the pessary group. The primary outcome was a composite of poor perinatal outcome: stillbirth, periventricular leucomalacia, severe respiratory distress syndrome, bronchopulmonary dysplasia, intraventricular haemorrhage, necrotising enterocolitis, proven sepsis, and neonatal death. Analyses were by modified intention to treat. This trial is registered in the Dutch trial registry, number NTR1858. FINDINGS: Between Sept 21, 2009, and March 9, 2012, 813 women underwent randomisation, of whom 808 were analysed (401 in the pessary group; 407 in the control group). At least one child of 53 women (13%) in the pessary group had poor perinatal outcome, compared with 55 (14%) in the control group (relative risk 0·98, 95% CI 0·69-1·39). INTERPRETATION: In unselected women with a multiple pregnancy, prophylactic use of a cervical pessary does not reduce poor perinatal outcome. FUNDING: The Netherlands Organisation for Health Research and Development.

Assessment of perinatal outcome after sustained tocolysis in early labour (APOSTEL-II trial).

BACKGROUND: Preterm labour is the main cause of perinatal morbidity and mortality in the Western world. At present, there is evidence that tocolysis for 48 hours is useful in women with threatened preterm labour at least before 32 weeks. This allows transfer of the patient to a perinatal centre, and maximizes the effect of corticosteroids for improved neonatal survival. It is questionable whether treatment with tocolytics should be maintained after 48 hours. METHODS/DESIGN: The APOSTEL II trial is a multicentre placebo-controlled study. Pregnant women admitted for threatened preterm labour who have been treated with 48 hours corticosteroids and tocolysis will be eligible to participate in the trial between 26+0 and 32+2 weeks gestational age. They will be randomly allocated to nifedipine (intervention) or placebo (control) for twelve days or until delivery, whatever comes first.Primary outcome is a composite of perinatal death, and severe neonatal morbidity up to evaluation at 6 months after birth. Secondary outcomes are gestational age at delivery, number of days in neonatal intensive care and total days of the first 6 months out of hospital. In addition a cost-effectiveness analysis will be performed. Analysis will be by intention to treat. The power calculation is based on an expected 11% difference in adverse neonatal outcome. This implies that 406 women have to be randomised (two sided test, beta 0.2 at alpha 0.05). DISCUSSION: This trial will provide evidence as to whether maintenance tocolysis reduces severe perinatal morbidity and mortality in women with threatened preterm labour before 32 weeks. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: http://www.trialregister.nl, NTR 1336, date of registration: June 3rd 2008.