Using Machine Learning Models to Identify Factors Associated With 30-Day Readmissions After Posterior Cervical Fusions: A Longitudinal Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: Readmission rates after posterior cervical fusion (PCF) significantly impact patients and healthcare, with complication rates at 15%-25% and up to 12% 90-day readmission rates. In this study, we aim to test whether machine learning (ML) models that capture interfactorial interactions outperform traditional logistic regression (LR) in identifying readmission-associated factors. METHODS: The Optum Clinformatics Data Mart database was used to identify patients who underwent PCF between 2004-2017. To determine factors associated with 30-day readmissions, 5 ML models were generated and evaluated, including a multivariate LR (MLR) model. Then, the best-performing model, Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), was compared to the LACE (Length patient stay in the hospital, Acuity of admission of patient in the hospital, Comorbidity, and Emergency visit) index regarding potential cost savings from algorithm implementation. RESULTS: This study included 4,130 patients, 874 of which were readmitted within 30 days. When analyzed and scaled, we found that patient discharge status, comorbidities, and number of procedure codes were factors that influenced MLR, while patient discharge status, billed admission charge, and length of stay influenced the GBM model. The GBM model significantly outperformed MLR in predicting unplanned readmissions (mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.846 vs. 0.829; p < 0.001), while also projecting an average cost savings of 50% more than the LACE index. CONCLUSION: Five models (GBM, XGBoost [extreme gradient boosting], RF [random forest], LASSO [least absolute shrinkage and selection operator], and MLR) were evaluated, among which, the GBM model exhibited superior predictive performance, robustness, and accuracy. Factors associated with readmissions impact LR and GBM models differently, suggesting that these models can be used complementarily. When analyzing PCF procedures, the GBM model resulted in greater predictive performance and was associated with higher theoretical cost savings for readmissions associated with PCF complications.

Equitable implementation of a precision digital health program for glucose management in individuals with newly diagnosed type 1 diabetes.

Few young people with type 1 diabetes (T1D) meet glucose targets. Continuous glucose monitoring improves glycemia, but access is not equitable. We prospectively assessed the impact of a systematic and equitable digital-health-team-based care program implementing tighter glucose targets (HbA1c < 7%), early technology use (continuous glucose monitoring starts <1 month after diagnosis) and remote patient monitoring on glycemia in young people with newly diagnosed T1D enrolled in the Teamwork, Targets, Technology, and Tight Control (4T Study 1). Primary outcome was HbA1c change from 4 to 12 months after diagnosis; the secondary outcome was achieving the HbA1c targets. The 4T Study 1 cohort (36.8% Hispanic and 35.3% publicly insured) had a mean HbA1c of 6.58%, 64% with HbA1c < 7% and mean time in the range (70-180 mg dl-1) of 68% at 1 year after diagnosis. Clinical implementation of the 4T Study 1 met the prespecified primary outcome and improved glycemia without unexpected serious adverse events. The strategies in the 4T Study 1 can be used to implement systematic and equitable care for individuals with T1D and translate to care for other chronic diseases. ClinicalTrials.gov registration: NCT04336969 .

A Machine Learning Model for Week-Ahead Hypoglycemia Prediction From Continuous Glucose Monitoring Data.

BACKGROUND: Remote patient monitoring (RPM) programs augment type 1 diabetes (T1D) care based on retrospective continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) data. Few methods are available to estimate the likelihood of a patient experiencing clinically significant hypoglycemia within one week. METHODS: We developed a machine learning model to estimate the probability that a patient will experience a clinically significant hypoglycemic event, defined as CGM readings below 54 mg/dL for at least 15 consecutive minutes, within one week. The model takes as input the patient's CGM time series over a given week, and outputs the predicted probability of a clinically significant hypoglycemic event the following week. We used 10-fold cross-validation and external validation (testing on cohorts different from the training cohort) to evaluate performance. We used CGM data from three different cohorts of patients with T1D: REPLACE-BG (226 patients), Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation (JDRF; 355 patients) and Tidepool (120 patients). RESULTS: In 10-fold cross-validation, the average area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC-AUC) was 0.77 (standard deviation [SD]: 0.0233) on the REPLACE-BG cohort, 0.74 (SD: 0.0188) on the JDRF cohort, and 0.76 (SD: 0.02) on the Tidepool cohort. In external validation, the average ROC-AUC across the three cohorts was 0.74 (SD: 0.0262). CONCLUSIONS: We developed a machine learning algorithm to estimate the probability of a clinically significant hypoglycemic event within one week. Predictive algorithms may provide diabetes care providers using RPM with additional context when prioritizing T1D patients for review.

Smart Start - Designing Powerful Clinical Trials Using Pilot Study Data.

BACKGROUND: Digital health interventions may be optimized before evaluation in a randomized clinical trial. Although many digital health interventions are deployed in pilot studies, the data collected are rarely used to refine the intervention and the subsequent clinical trials. METHODS: We leverage natural variation in patients eligible for a digital health intervention in a remote patient-monitoring pilot study to design and compare interventions for a subsequent randomized clinical trial. RESULTS: Our approach leverages patient heterogeneity to identify an intervention with twice the estimated effect size of an unoptimized intervention. CONCLUSIONS: Optimizing an intervention and clinical trial based on pilot data may improve efficacy and increase the probability of success. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and others; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04336969.)

SCAN for Abuse: Electronic Health Record-Based Universal Child Abuse Screening.

BACKGROUND: Identification of physical abuse at the point of care without a systematic approach remains inherently subjective and prone to judgement error. This study examines the implementation of an electronic health record (EHR)-based universal child injury screen (CIS) to improve detection rates of child abuse. METHODS: CIS was implemented in the EHR admission documentation for all patients age 5 or younger at a single medical center, with the following questions. 1) "Is this patient an injured/trauma patient?" 2) "If this is a trauma/injured patient, where did the injury occur?" A "Yes" response to Question 1 would alert a team of child abuse pediatricians and social workers to determine if a patient required formal child abuse clinical evaluation. Patients who received positive CIS responses, formal child abuse work-up, and/or reports to Child Protective Services (CPS) were reviewed for analysis. CPS rates from historical controls (2017-2018) were compared to post-implementation rates (2019-2021). RESULTS: Between 2019 and 2021, 14,150 patients were screened with CIS. 286 (2.0 %) patients screened received positive CIS responses. 166 (58.0 %) of these patients with positive CIS responses would not have otherwise been identified for child abuse evaluation by their treating teams. 18 (10.8 %) of the patients identified by the CIS and not by the treating team were later reported to CPS. Facility CPS reporting rates for physical abuse were 1.2 per 1000 admitted children age 5 or younger (pre-intervention) versus 4.2 per 1000 (post-intervention). CONCLUSIONS: Introduction of CIS led to increased detection suspected child abuse among children age 5 or younger. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level II. TYPE OF STUDY: Study of Diagnostic Test.

Suboptimal antimicrobial discharge prescriptions at a tertiary referral children's hospital.

Objective: To determine the rate of and factors associated with suboptimal discharge antimicrobial prescribing at a tertiary referral children's hospital. Design: Retrospective cohort. Setting: Tertiary referral children's hospital. Population: All enteral antimicrobial discharge prescriptions at Lucile Packard Children's Hospital Stanford from January 1st, 2021 through December 31st, 2021. Method: All enteral discharge antimicrobials are routinely evaluated by our antimicrobial stewardship program within 48 hours of hospital discharge. Antimicrobials are determined to be optimal or suboptimal by an antimicrobial stewardship pharmacist after evaluating the prescribed choice of antimicrobial, dose, duration, dosing frequency, and formulation. The rate and factors associated with suboptimal antimicrobial discharge prescribing were evaluated. Results: Of 2,593 antimicrobial prescriptions ordered at discharge, 19.7% were suboptimal. Suboptimal prescriptions were due to incorrect duration (72.2%), dose (31.0%), dose frequency (23.3%), drug choice (6.5%), or formulation (5.7%). In total, 87.2% of antimicrobials for perioperative prophylaxis and 13.5% of treatment antimicrobials were suboptimal. Antimicrobials with the highest rate of suboptimal prescriptions were amoxicillin-clavulanate (40.7%), clindamycin (36.6%), and cephalexin (36.6%). Conclusion: Suboptimal antimicrobial discharge prescriptions are common and present an opportunity for antimicrobial stewardship programs during hospital transition of care. Factors associated with suboptimal prescriptions differ by antimicrobial and prescribed indication, indicating that multiple stewardship interventions may be needed to improve prescribing.

Drivers of telemedicine in primary care clinics at a large academic medical centre.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 disrupted healthcare routines and prompted rapid telemedicine implementation. We investigated the drivers of visit modality selection (telemedicine versus in-person) in primary care clinics at an academic medical centre. METHODS: We used electronic medical record data from March 2020 to May 2022 from 13 primary care clinics (N = 21,031 new, N = 207,292 return visits), with 55% overall telemedicine use. Hierarchical logistic regression and cross-validation methods were used to estimate the variation in visit modality explained by the patient, clinician and visit factors as measured by the mean-test area under the curve (AUC). RESULTS: There was significant variation in telemedicine use across clinicians (ranging from 0-100%) for the same visit diagnosis. The strongest predictors of telemedicine were the clinician seen for new visits (mean AUC of 0.79) and the primary visit diagnosis for return visits (0.77). Models based on all patient characteristics combined accounted for relatively little variation in modality selection, 0.54 for new and 0.58 for return visits, respectively. Amongst patient characteristics, males, patients over 65 years, Asians and patient's with non-English language preferences used less telemedicine; however, those using interpreter services used significantly more telemedicine. CONCLUSION: Clinician seen and primary visit diagnoses were the best predictors of visit modality. The distinction between new and return visits and the minimal impact of patient characteristics on visit modality highlights the complexity of clinical care and warrants research approaches that go beyond linear models to uncover the emergent causal effects of specific technology features mediated by tasks, people and organisations.

Surgical scheduling via optimization and machine learning with long-tailed data : Health care management science, in press.

Using data from cardiovascular surgery patients with long and highly variable post-surgical lengths of stay (LOS), we develop a modeling framework to reduce recovery unit congestion. We estimate the LOS and its probability distribution using machine learning models, schedule procedures on a rolling basis using a variety of optimization models, and estimate performance with simulation. The machine learning models achieved only modest LOS prediction accuracy, despite access to a very rich set of patient characteristics. Compared to the current paper-based system used in the hospital, most optimization models failed to reduce congestion without increasing wait times for surgery. A conservative stochastic optimization with sufficient sampling to capture the long tail of the LOS distribution outperformed the current manual process and other stochastic and robust optimization approaches. These results highlight the perils of using oversimplified distributional models of LOS for scheduling procedures and the importance of using optimization methods well-suited to dealing with long-tailed behavior.

The evolving role of data & safety monitoring boards for real-world clinical trials.

Introduction: Clinical trials provide the "gold standard" evidence for advancing the practice of medicine, even as they evolve to integrate real-world data sources. Modern clinical trials are increasingly incorporating real-world data sources - data not intended for research and often collected in free-living contexts. We refer to trials that incorporate real-world data sources as real-world trials. Such trials may have the potential to enhance the generalizability of findings, facilitate pragmatic study designs, and evaluate real-world effectiveness. However, key differences in the design, conduct, and implementation of real-world vs traditional trials have ramifications in data management that can threaten their desired rigor. Methods: Three examples of real-world trials that leverage different types of data sources - wearables, medical devices, and electronic health records are described. Key insights applicable to all three trials in their relationship to Data and Safety Monitoring Boards (DSMBs) are derived. Results: Insight and recommendations are given on four topic areas: A. Charge of the DSMB; B. Composition of the DSMB; C. Pre-launch Activities; and D. Post-launch Activities. We recommend stronger and additional focus on data integrity. Conclusions: Clinical trials can benefit from incorporating real-world data sources, potentially increasing the generalizability of findings and overall trial scale and efficiency. The data, however, present a level of informatic complexity that relies heavily on a robust data science infrastructure. The nature of monitoring the data and safety must evolve to adapt to new trial scenarios to protect the rigor of clinical trials.

A quantitative model to ensure capacity sufficient for timely access to care in a remote patient monitoring program.

INTRODUCTION: Algorithm-enabled remote patient monitoring (RPM) programs pose novel operational challenges. For clinics developing and deploying such programs, no standardized model is available to ensure capacity sufficient for timely access to care. We developed a flexible model and interactive dashboard of capacity planning for whole-population RPM-based care for T1D. METHODS: Data were gathered from a weekly RPM program for 277 paediatric patients with T1D at a paediatric academic medical centre. Through the analysis of 2 years of observational operational data and iterative interviews with the care team, we identified the primary operational, population, and workforce metrics that drive demand for care providers. Based on these metrics, an interactive model was designed to facilitate capacity planning and deployed as a dashboard. RESULTS: The primary population-level drivers of demand are the number of patients in the program, the rate at which patients enrol and graduate from the program, and the average frequency at which patients require a review of their data. The primary modifiable clinic-level drivers of capacity are the number of care providers, the time required to review patient data and contact a patient, and the number of hours each provider allocates to the program each week. At the institution studied, the model identified a variety of practical operational approaches to better match the demand for patient care. CONCLUSION: We designed a generalizable, systematic model for capacity planning for a paediatric endocrinology clinic providing RPM for T1D. We deployed this model as an interactive dashboard and used it to facilitate expansion of a novel care program (4 T Study) for newly diagnosed patients with T1D. This model may facilitate the systematic design of RPM-based care programs.

Sociodemographic disparities in the use of cardiovascular ambulatory care and telemedicine during the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated adoption of telemedicine in cardiology clinics. Early in the pandemic, there were sociodemographic disparities in telemedicine use. It is unknown if these disparities persisted and whether they were associated with changes in the population of patients accessing care. METHODS: We examined all adult cardiology visits at an academic and an affiliated community practice in Northern California from March 2019 to February 2020 (pre-COVID) and March 2020 to February 2021 (COVID). We compared patient sociodemographic characteristics between these periods. We used logistic regression to assess the association of patient/visit characteristics with visit modality (in-person vs telemedicine and video- vs phone-based telemedicine) during the COVID period. RESULTS: There were 54,948 pre-COVID and 58,940 COVID visits. Telemedicine use increased from <1% to 70.7% of visits (49.7% video, 21.0% phone) during the COVID period. Patient sociodemographic characteristics were similar during both periods. In adjusted analyses, visits for patients from some sociodemographic groups were less likely to be delivered by telemedicine, and when delivered by telemedicine, were less likely to be delivered by video versus phone. The observed disparities in the use of video-based telemedicine were greatest for patients aged ≥80 years (vs age <60, OR 0.24, 95% CI 0.21, 0.28), Black patients (vs non-Hispanic White, OR 0.64, 95% CI 0.56, 0.74), patients with limited English proficiency (vs English proficient, OR 0.52, 95% CI 0.46-0.59), and those on Medicaid (vs privately insured, OR 0.47, 95% CI 0.41-0.54). CONCLUSIONS: During the first year of the pandemic, the sociodemographic characteristics of patients receiving cardiovascular care remained stable, but the modality of care diverged across groups. There were differences in the use of telemedicine vs in-person care and most notably in the use of video- vs phone-based telemedicine. Future studies should examine barriers and outcomes in digital healthcare access across diverse patient groups.

Identification of Factors Associated With 30-day Readmissions After Posterior Lumbar Fusion Using Machine Learning and Traditional Models: A National Longitudinal Database Study.

STUDY DESIGN: A retrospective cohort study. OBJECTIVE: To identify the factors associated with readmissions after PLF using machine learning and logistic regression (LR) models. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: Readmissions after posterior lumbar fusion (PLF) place significant health and financial burden on the patient and overall health care system. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The Optum Clinformatics Data Mart database was used to identify patients who underwent posterior lumbar laminectomy, fusion, and instrumentation between 2004 and 2017. Four machine learning models and a multivariable LR model were used to assess factors most closely associated with 30-day readmission. These models were also evaluated in terms of ability to predict unplanned 30-day readmissions. The top-performing model (Gradient Boosting Machine; GBM) was then compared with the validated LACE index in terms of potential cost savings associated with the implementation of the model. RESULTS: A total of 18,981 patients were included, of which 3080 (16.2%) were readmitted within 30 days of initial admission. Discharge status, prior admission, and geographic division were most influential for the LR model, whereas discharge status, length of stay, and prior admissions had the greatest relevance for the GBM model. GBM outperformed LR in predicting unplanned 30-day readmission (mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.865 vs. 0.850, P <0.0001). The use of GBM also achieved a projected 80% decrease in readmission-associated costs relative to those achieved by the LACE index model. CONCLUSIONS: The factors associated with readmission vary in terms of predictive influence based on standard LR and machine learning models used, highlighting the complementary roles these models have in identifying relevant factors for the prediction of 30-day readmissions. For PLF procedures, GBM yielded the greatest predictive ability and associated cost savings for readmission. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: 3.

Disparities in Hemoglobin A1c Levels in the First Year After Diagnosis Among Youths With Type 1 Diabetes Offered Continuous Glucose Monitoring.

Importance: Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) is associated with improvements in hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) in youths with type 1 diabetes (T1D); however, youths from minoritized racial and ethnic groups and those with public insurance face greater barriers to CGM access. Early initiation of and access to CGM may reduce disparities in CGM uptake and improve diabetes outcomes. Objective: To determine whether HbA1c decreases differed by ethnicity and insurance status among a cohort of youths newly diagnosed with T1D and provided CGM. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used data from the Teamwork, Targets, Technology, and Tight Control (4T) study, a clinical research program that aims to initiate CGM within 1 month of T1D diagnosis. All youths with new-onset T1D diagnosed between July 25, 2018, and June 15, 2020, at Stanford Children's Hospital, a single-site, freestanding children's hospital in California, were approached to enroll in the Pilot-4T study and were followed for 12 months. Data analysis was performed and completed on June 3, 2022. Exposures: All eligible participants were offered CGM within 1 month of diabetes diagnosis. Main Outcomes and Measures: To assess HbA1c change over the study period, analyses were stratified by ethnicity (Hispanic vs non-Hispanic) or insurance status (public vs private) to compare the Pilot-4T cohort with a historical cohort of 272 youths diagnosed with T1D between June 1, 2014, and December 28, 2016. Results: The Pilot-4T cohort comprised 135 youths, with a median age of 9.7 years (IQR, 6.8-12.7 years) at diagnosis. There were 71 boys (52.6%) and 64 girls (47.4%). Based on self-report, participants' race was categorized as Asian or Pacific Islander (19 [14.1%]), White (62 [45.9%]), or other race (39 [28.9%]); race was missing or not reported for 15 participants (11.1%). Participants also self-reported their ethnicity as Hispanic (29 [21.5%]) or non-Hispanic (92 [68.1%]). A total of 104 participants (77.0%) had private insurance and 31 (23.0%) had public insurance. Compared with the historical cohort, similar reductions in HbA1c at 6, 9, and 12 months postdiagnosis were observed for Hispanic individuals (estimated difference, -0.26% [95% CI, -1.05% to 0.43%], -0.60% [-1.46% to 0.21%], and -0.15% [-1.48% to 0.80%]) and non-Hispanic individuals (estimated difference, -0.27% [95% CI, -0.62% to 0.10%], -0.50% [-0.81% to -0.11%], and -0.47% [-0.91% to 0.06%]) in the Pilot-4T cohort. Similar reductions in HbA1c at 6, 9, and 12 months postdiagnosis were also observed for publicly insured individuals (estimated difference, -0.52% [95% CI, -1.22% to 0.15%], -0.38% [-1.26% to 0.33%], and -0.57% [-2.08% to 0.74%]) and privately insured individuals (estimated difference, -0.34% [95% CI, -0.67% to 0.03%], -0.57% [-0.85% to -0.26%], and -0.43% [-0.85% to 0.01%]) in the Pilot-4T cohort. Hispanic youths in the Pilot-4T cohort had higher HbA1c at 6, 9, and 12 months postdiagnosis than non-Hispanic youths (estimated difference, 0.28% [95% CI, -0.46% to 0.86%], 0.63% [0.02% to 1.20%], and 1.39% [0.37% to 1.96%]), as did publicly insured youths compared with privately insured youths (estimated difference, 0.39% [95% CI, -0.23% to 0.99%], 0.95% [0.28% to 1.45%], and 1.16% [-0.09% to 2.13%]). Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this cohort study suggest that CGM initiation soon after diagnosis is associated with similar improvements in HbA1c for Hispanic and non-Hispanic youths as well as for publicly and privately insured youths. These results further suggest that equitable access to CGM soon after T1D diagnosis may be a first step to improve HbA1c for all youths but is unlikely to eliminate disparities entirely. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04336969.

WAVES - The Lucile Packard Children's Hospital Pediatric Physiological Waveforms Dataset.

WAVES is a large, single-center dataset comprising 9 years of high-frequency physiological waveform data from patients in intensive and acute care units at a large academic, pediatric medical center. The data comprise approximately 10.6 million hours of 1 to 20 concurrent waveforms over approximately 50,364 distinct patient encounters. The data have been de-identified, cleaned, and organized to facilitate research. Initial analyses demonstrate the potential of the data for clinical applications such as non-invasive blood pressure monitoring and methodological applications such as waveform-agnostic data imputation. WAVES is the largest pediatric-focused and second largest physiological waveform dataset available for research.

The Association Between Central Line-Associated Bloodstream Infection and Central Line Access.

OBJECTIVES: Identifying modifiable risk factors associated with central line-associated bloodstream infections (CLABSIs) may lead to modifications to central line (CL) management. We hypothesize that the number of CL accesses per day is associated with an increased risk for CLABSI and that a significant fraction of CL access may be substituted with non-CL routes. DESIGN: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients with at least one CL device day from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2019. A multivariate mixed-effects logistic regression model was used to estimate the association between the number of CL accesses in a given CL device day and prevalence of CLABSI within the following 3 days. SETTING: A 395-bed pediatric academic medical center. PATIENTS: Patients with at least one CL device day from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2019. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: There were 138,411 eligible CL device days across 6,543 patients, with 639 device days within 3 days of a CLABSI (a total of 217 CLABSIs). The number of per-day CL accesses was independently associated with risk of CLABSI in the next 3 days (adjusted odds ratio, 1.007; 95% CI, 1.003-1.012; p = 0.002). Of medications administered through CLs, 88% were candidates for delivery through a peripheral line. On average, these accesses contributed a 6.3% increase in daily risk for CLABSI. CONCLUSIONS: The number of daily CL accesses is independently associated with risk of CLABSI in the next 3 days. In the pediatric population examined, most medications delivered through CLs could be safely administered peripherally. Efforts to reduce CL access may be an important strategy to include in contemporary CLABSI-prevention bundles.

CGM Metrics Identify Dysglycemic States in Participants From the TrialNet Pathway to Prevention Study.

OBJECTIVE: Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) parameters may identify individuals at risk for progression to overt type 1 diabetes. We aimed to determine whether CGM metrics provide additional insights into progression to clinical stage 3 type 1 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: One hundred five relatives of individuals in type 1 diabetes probands (median age 16.8 years; 89% non-Hispanic White; 43.8% female) from the TrialNet Pathway to Prevention study underwent 7-day CGM assessments and oral glucose tolerance tests (OGTTs) at 6-month intervals. The baseline data are reported here. Three groups were evaluated: individuals with 1) stage 2 type 1 diabetes (n = 42) with two or more diabetes-related autoantibodies and abnormal OGTT; 2) stage 1 type 1 diabetes (n = 53) with two or more diabetes-related autoantibodies and normal OGTT; and 3) negative test for all diabetes-related autoantibodies and normal OGTT (n = 10). RESULTS: Multiple CGM metrics were associated with progression to stage 3 type 1 diabetes. Specifically, spending ≥5% time with glucose levels ≥140 mg/dL (P = 0.01), ≥8% time with glucose levels ≥140 mg/dL (P = 0.02), ≥5% time with glucose levels ≥160 mg/dL (P = 0.0001), and ≥8% time with glucose levels ≥160 mg/dL (P = 0.02) were all associated with progression to stage 3 disease. Stage 2 participants and those who progressed to stage 3 also exhibited higher mean daytime glucose values; spent more time with glucose values over 120, 140, and 160 mg/dL; and had greater variability. CONCLUSIONS: CGM could aid in the identification of individuals, including those with a normal OGTT, who are likely to rapidly progress to stage 3 type 1 diabetes.

A New Technology-Enabled Care Model for Pediatric Type 1 Diabetes.

In July 2018, pediatric type 1 diabetes (T1D) care at Stanford suffered many of the problems that plague U.S. health care. Patient outcomes lagged behind those of peer European nations, care was delivered primarily on a fixed cadence rather than as needed, continuous glucose monitors (CGMs) were largely unavailable for individuals with public insurance, and providers' primary access to CGM data was through long printouts. Stanford developed a new technology-enabled, telemedicine-based care model for patients with newly diagnosed T1D. They developed and deployed Timely Interventions for Diabetes Excellence (TIDE) to facilitate as-needed patient contact with the partially automated analysis of CGM data and used philanthropic funding to facilitate full access to CGM technology for publicly insured patients, for whom CGM is not readily available in California. A study of the use of CGM for patients with new-onset T1D (pilot Teamwork, Targets, and Technology for Tight Control [4T] study), which incorporated the use of TIDE, was associated with a 0.5%-point reduction in hemoglobin A1c compared with historical controls and an 86% reduction in screen time for providers reviewing patient data. Based on this initial success, Stanford expanded the use of TIDE to a total of 300 patients, including many outside the pilot 4T study, and made TIDE freely available as open-source software. Next steps include expanding the use of TIDE to support the care of approximately 1,000 patients, improving TIDE and the associated workflows to scale their use to more patients, incorporating data from additional sensors, and partnering with other institutions to facilitate their deployment of this care model.

A model to design financially sustainable algorithm-enabled remote patient monitoring for pediatric type 1 diabetes care.

Introduction: Population-level algorithm-enabled remote patient monitoring (RPM) based on continuous glucose monitor (CGM) data review has been shown to improve clinical outcomes in diabetes patients, especially children. However, existing reimbursement models are geared towards the direct provision of clinic care, not population health management. We developed a financial model to assist pediatric type 1 diabetes (T1D) clinics design financially sustainable RPM programs based on algorithm-enabled review of CGM data. Methods: Data were gathered from a weekly RPM program for 302 pediatric patients with T1D at Lucile Packard Children's Hospital. We created a customizable financial model to calculate the yearly marginal costs and revenues of providing diabetes education. We consider a baseline or status quo scenario and compare it to two different care delivery scenarios, in which routine appointments are supplemented with algorithm-enabled, flexible, message-based contacts delivered according to patient need. We use the model to estimate the minimum reimbursement rate needed for telemedicine contacts to maintain revenue-neutrality and not suffer an adverse impact to the bottom line. Results: The financial model estimates that in both scenarios, an average reimbursement rate of roughly $10.00 USD per telehealth interaction would be sufficient to maintain revenue-neutrality. Algorithm-enabled RPM could potentially be billed for using existing RPM CPT codes and lead to margin expansion. Conclusion: We designed a model which evaluates the financial impact of adopting algorithm-enabled RPM in a pediatric endocrinology clinic serving T1D patients. This model establishes a clear threshold reimbursement value for maintaining revenue-neutrality, as well as an estimate of potential RPM reimbursement revenue which could be billed for. It may serve as a useful financial-planning tool for a pediatric T1D clinic seeking to leverage algorithm-enabled RPM to provide flexible, more timely interventions to its patients.

Drivers of variation in telemedicine use during the COVID-19 pandemic: The experience of a large academic cardiovascular practice.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 spurred rapid adoption and expansion of telemedicine. We investigated the factors driving visit modality (telemedicine vs. in-person) for outpatient visits at a large cardiovascular center. METHODS: We used electronic health record data from March 2020 to February 2021 from four cardiology subspecialties (general cardiology, electrophysiology, heart failure, and interventional cardiology) at a large academic health system in Northern California. There were 21,912 new and return visits with 69% delivered by telemedicine. We used hierarchical logistic regression and cross-validation methods to estimate the variation in visit modality explained by patient, clinician, and visit factors as measured by the mean area under the curve. RESULTS: Across all subspecialties, the clinician seen was the strongest predictor of telemedicine usage, while primary visit diagnosis was the next most predictive. In general cardiology, the model based on clinician seen had a mean area under the curve of 0.83, the model based on the primary diagnosis had a mean area under the curve of 0.69, and the model based on all patient characteristics combined had a mean area under the curve of 0.56. There was significant variation in telemedicine use across clinicians within each subspecialty, even for visits with the same primary visit diagnosis. CONCLUSION: Individual clinician practice patterns had the largest influence on visit modality across subspecialties in a large cardiovascular medicine practice, while primary diagnosis was less predictive, and patient characteristics even less so. Cardiovascular clinics should reduce variability in visit modality selection through standardized processes that integrate clinical factors and patient preference.