Confidence Predictions Affect Performance Confidence and Neural Preparation in Perceptual Decision Making.

Decisions are usually accompanied by a feeling of being wrong or right - a subjective confidence estimate. But what information is this confidence estimate based on, and what is confidence used for? To answer these questions, research has largely focused on confidence regarding current or past decisions, for example identifying how characteristics of the stimulus affect confidence, how confidence can be used as an internally generated feedback signal, and how communicating confidence can affect group decisions. Here, we report two studies which implemented a novel metacognitive measure: predictions of confidence for future perceptual decisions. Using computational modeling of behaviour and EEG, we established that experience-based confidence predictions are one source of information that affects how confident we are in future decision-making, and that learned confidence-expectations affect neural preparation for future decisions. Results from both studies show that participants develop precise confidence predictions informed by past confidence experience. Notably, our results also show that confidence predictions affect performance confidence rated after a decision is made; this finding supports the proposal that confidence judgments are based on multiple sources of information, including expectations. We found strong support for this link in neural correlates of stimulus preparation and processing. EEG measures of preparatory neural activity (contingent negative variation; CNV) and evidence accumulation (centro-parietal positivity; CPP) show that predicted confidence affects neural preparation for stimulus processing, supporting the proposal that one purpose of confidence judgments may be to learn about performance for future encounters and prepare accordingly.

Association of grey matter changes with stability and flexibility of prediction in akinetic-rigid Parkinson's disease.

Parkinson's disease (PD), which is caused by degeneration of dopaminergic neurons in the midbrain, results in a heterogeneous clinical picture including cognitive decline. Since the phasic signal of dopamine neurons is proposed to guide learning by signifying mismatches between subjects' expectations and external events, we here investigated whether akinetic-rigid PD patients without mild cognitive impairment exhibit difficulties in dealing with either relevant (requiring flexibility) or irrelevant (requiring stability) prediction errors. Following our previous study on flexibility and stability in prediction (Trempler et al. J Cogn Neurosci 29(2):298-309, 2017), we then assessed whether deficits would correspond with specific structural alterations in dopaminergic regions as well as in inferior frontal cortex, medial prefrontal cortex, and the hippocampus. Twenty-one healthy controls and twenty-one akinetic-rigid PD patients on and off medication performed a task which required to serially predict upcoming items. Switches between predictable sequences had to be indicated via button press, whereas sequence omissions had to be ignored. Independent of the disease, midbrain volume was related to a general response bias to unexpected events, whereas right putamen volume correlated with the ability to discriminate between relevant and irrelevant prediction errors. However, patients compared with healthy participants showed deficits in stabilisation against irrelevant prediction errors, associated with thickness of right inferior frontal gyrus and left medial prefrontal cortex. Flexible updating due to relevant prediction errors was also affected in patients compared with controls and associated with right hippocampus volume. Dopaminergic medication influenced behavioural performance across, but not within the patients. Our exploratory study warrants further research on deficient prediction error processing and its structural correlates as a core of cognitive symptoms occurring already in early stages of the disease.