The effects of local interventions on global technological change through spillovers: A modeling framework and application to the road-freight sector.

To address global sustainability challenges, (public) policy interventions are needed to induce or accelerate technological change. While most policy interventions occur on the local level, their innovation effects can spill over to other jurisdictions, potentially having global impact. These spillovers can increase or reduce the incentive for interventions. Lacking to date are computational models that capture these spillover dynamics. Here, we devise a conceptual and methodological approach to quantify ex ante the effects of local demand-side interventions on global competition between incumbent and novel technologies. We introduce two factors that moderate global spillovers-relative size of selection environments and relative innovation potential of competing technologies. Our approach incorporates both factors in a techno-economic discrete choice model that evaluates technology competition over time through endogenized technological learning. We apply this modeling framework to the case of road freight. Different demand-pull interventions and shocks are modeled to assess spillover effects. In the case of road freight, electric vehicles experience growth in most application segments but can still be accelerated substantially through public policy intervention-spillovers occur if strong public interventions are introduced in large regions or in multiple combined regions under club policy interventions. These findings are discussed in the context of club policy interventions and a modeled geopolitical shock in China. A full sensitivity analysis of model input parameters and intervention or shock dynamics reveals high model robustness. Finally, we discuss the implications of the road-freight case study as it might inform the progress of other niche technologies in transitioning sectors.

The cost of electrifying all households in 40 Sub-Saharan African countries by 2030.

Electrifying sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) requires major investments and policy intervention. Existing analyses focus on the levelized cost of electricity at aggregate levels, leaving the feasibility and affordability of reaching Sustainable Development Goal #7 - access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all - by country unclear. Here, we use the electrification model OnSSET to estimate granular and spatially explicit levelized costs of electricity and costs per person per day (pp/d) for 40 countries in SSA. We find that solar-powered mini-grids and standalone systems drastically lower the cost of electrifying remote and high-cost areas, particularly for lower tiers of electrification. On average, least-cost electrification in SSA at Tier 3 (ca. 365 kWh/household/year), can be provided at 14c USD/kWh or 7c USD pp/d. These results are sensitive to demand assumptions, for example, misguided electrification planning or oversizing due to overestimated demand can lead to substantial cost increases. Our results highlight large variances within countries, which we propose to visualise using electrification cost curves by country. Policymakers should consider such cost curves and use a tailored approach by country and region to reach SDG7 in SSA.

Comparing the levelized cost of electric vehicle charging options in Europe.

With rapidly decreasing purchase prices of electric vehicles, charging costs are becoming ever more important for the diffusion of electric vehicles as required to decarbonize transport. However, the costs of charging electric vehicles in Europe are largely unknown. Here we develop a systematic classification of charging options, gather extensive market data on equipment cost, and employ a levelized cost approach to model charging costs in 30 European countries (European Union 27, Great Britain, Norway, Switzerland) and for 13 different charging options for private passenger transport. The findings demonstrate a large variance of charging costs across countries and charging options, suggesting different policy options to reduce charging costs. A specific analysis on the impacts and relevance of publicly accessible charging station utilization is performed. The results reveal charging costs at these stations to be competitive with fuel costs at typical utilization rates exhibited already today.

Toward a European carbon footprint rule for batteries.

Focus on upstream production, not downstream use.

Governing complex societal problems: The impact of private on public regulation through technological change.

When addressing complex societal problems, public regulation is increasingly complemented by private regulation. Extant literature has provided valuable insights into the effectiveness of such complex governance structures, with most empirical studies focusing on how public regulation influences private regulation. Conversely, the impact of private on public regulation is less well studied. Here, we investigate this impact with a focus on technological change as possible mechanism. Based on a case study of energy efficiency in buildings in Switzerland, we find evidence of a symbiotic interaction between public and private regulation that leads to ratcheting-up of regulatory stringency. We identify technological change as the mechanism linking private and public regulation. We discuss the relevance of our findings for governance literature and regulators.

Spurring low-carbon electrosynthesis through energy and innovation policy.

Reaching the climate targets set in the Paris Agreement on climate change requires decarbonizing all parts of the global economy. The electrification of industry processes-and more specifically, electrosynthesis (ES)-is an important decarbonization mechanism. To tap into this mechanism's potential and accelerate the decarbonization of these processes, I argue that public policy needs to perform two tasks. First, energy policy needs to enable the provision of CO2 emissions-free baseload electricity. Second, innovation policy needs to accelerate cost reductions for ES. Here, I discuss why this is the case, what the challenges are, how policy makers can address them, and how political ambition can be increased.

Navigating the Clean Energy Transition in the COVID-19 Crisis.

Bjarne Steffen is a senior researcher at ETH Zurich's Energy Politics Group. His research addresses policies related to energy innovation and the role of finance in the energy transition. He previously worked at MIT's Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, the World Economic Forum, and a strategy consultancy. Bjarne holds a Master's in economics from the University of Mannheim and a PhD in energy economics from the University of Duisburg-Essen. Florian Egli is a PhD candidate at ETH Zurich's Energy Politics Group. His research focuses on the role of finance in the energy transition and climate finance more generally. He is a World Economic Forum Global Shaper, is associated with the think tank foraus as its former vice president, and held a Mercator Fellowship on International Affairs in 2015 and 2016. Florian holds a Master's in International Economics from the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies (IHEID) in Geneva. Michael Pahle is head of the working group "Climate and Energy Policy" at the Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research. His research focuses on carbon pricing and power market design. He holds a Master's in Physics from Potsdam University and a PhD in economics from TU Berlin. Tobias S. Schmidt is Assistant Professor and the head of ETH Zurich's Energy Politics Group, an interdisciplinary group analyzing the interaction of energy policy and its underlying politics with technological change in the energy sector. His research covers both developed and developing countries. Tobias holds a Bachelor's and Master's of Science in electrical engineering (energy focus) from the Technical University Munich and a PhD from ETH Zurich in management, technology, and economics.

Additional Emissions and Cost from Storing Electricity in Stationary Battery Systems.

Stationary batteries are an important technological option for renewable energy-based decarbonization of the electricity sector, as they can counterbalance renewable energy sources' intermittency and provide grid-stabilizing services. However, it has been argued that the additional economic cost of batteries, emissions occurring during the manufacturing phase of batteries, and emissions caused by losses during the use phase can reduce batteries' potential in supporting the decarbonization of the electricity sector. Here, we perform a new battery production- and use-phase lifecycle emissions and cost analysis to calculate the additional lifecycle greenhoues gas (GHG) emissions (LCE) and costs (LCC) that arise from storing electricity in six different battery technologies, five applications, and three different geographies. Our results show that the LCE of storing electricity are strongly determined by application and geography, whereas LCC vary with application and technology. Lithium-ion technologies perform best across most applications and geographies on both the LCE and LCC dimensions. Furthermore, we only identify trade-offs between the LCC and the GHG emissions cost when assuming a high social cost of GHG emissions of 180 EUR/tonCO2e. Based on our results, we discuss which dimensions of technological improvement of battery technologies are most desirable from a societal perspective.

Composting projects under the Clean Development Mechanism: sustainable contribution to mitigate climate change.

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in developing countries and at the same time to assist these countries in sustainable development. While composting as a suitable mitigation option in the waste sector can clearly contribute to the former goal there are indications that high rents can also be achieved regarding the latter. In this article composting is compared with other CDM project types inside and outside the waste sector with regards to both project numbers and contribution to sustainable development. It is found that, despite the high number of waste projects, composting is underrepresented and a major reason for this fact is identified. Based on a multi-criteria analysis it is shown that composting has a higher potential for contribution to sustainable development than most other best in class projects. As these contributions can only be assured if certain requirements are followed, eight key obligations are presented.