Cost-effectiveness of prostate cancer screening: a simulation study based on ERSPC data.

BACKGROUND: The results of the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) trial showed a statistically significant 29% prostate cancer mortality reduction for the men screened in the intervention arm and a 23% negative impact on the life-years gained because of quality of life. However, alternative prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening strategies for the population may exist, optimizing the effects on mortality reduction, quality of life, overdiagnosis, and costs. METHODS: Based on data of the ERSPC trial, we predicted the numbers of prostate cancers diagnosed, prostate cancer deaths averted, life-years and quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) gained, and cost-effectiveness of 68 screening strategies starting at age 55 years, with a PSA threshold of 3, using microsimulation modeling. The screening strategies varied by age to stop screening and screening interval (one to 14 years or once in a lifetime screens), and therefore number of tests. RESULTS: Screening at short intervals of three years or less was more cost-effective than using longer intervals. Screening at ages 55 to 59 years with two-year intervals had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $73000 per QALY gained and was considered optimal. With this strategy, lifetime prostate cancer mortality reduction was predicted as 13%, and 33% of the screen-detected cancers were overdiagnosed. When better quality of life for the post-treatment period could be achieved, an older age of 65 to 72 years for ending screening was obtained. CONCLUSION: Prostate cancer screening can be cost-effective when it is limited to two or three screens between ages 55 to 59 years. Screening above age 63 years is less cost-effective because of loss of QALYs because of overdiagnosis.

Treatment of local-regional prostate cancer detected by PSA screening: benefits and harms according to prognostic factors.

BACKGROUND: Men with screen-detected prostate cancer can choose to undergo immediate curative treatment or enter into an expectant management programme. We quantified how the benefits and harms of immediate treatment vary according to the prognostic factors of clinical T-stage, Gleason score, and patient age. METHODS: A microsimulation model based on European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer data was used to predict the benefits and harms of immediate treatment versus delayed treatment of local-regional prostate cancer in men aged 55-74 years. Benefits included life-years gained and reduced probability of death from prostate cancer. Harms included lead time and probability of overdiagnosis. RESULTS: The ratio of mean lead time to mean life-years gained ranged from 1.8 to 31.2, and the additional number of treatments required per prostate cancer death prevented ranged from 0.3 to 11.6 across the different prognostic groups. Both harm-benefit ratios were lowest, most favourable, for men aged 55-59 years and diagnosed with moderate-risk prostate cancer. Ratios were high for men aged 70-74 years regardless of clinical T-stage and Gleason score. CONCLUSION: Men aged 55-59 years with moderate-risk prostate cancer are predicted to derive greatest benefit from immediate curative treatment. Immediate treatment is least favourable for men aged 70-74 years with either low-risk or high-risk prostate cancer.

Importance of prostate volume in the European Randomised Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) risk calculators: results from the prostate biopsy collaborative group.

OBJECTIVES: To compare the predictive performance and potential clinical usefulness of risk calculators of the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC RC) with and without information on prostate volume. METHODS: We studied 6 cohorts (5 European and 1 US) with a total of 15,300 men, all biopsied and with pre-biopsy TRUS measurements of prostate volume. Volume was categorized into 3 categories (25, 40, and 60 cc), to reflect use of digital rectal examination (DRE) for volume assessment. Risks of prostate cancer were calculated according to a ERSPC DRE-based RC (including PSA, DRE, prior biopsy, and prostate volume) and a PSA + DRE model (including PSA, DRE, and prior biopsy). Missing data on prostate volume were completed by single imputation. Risk predictions were evaluated with respect to calibration (graphically), discrimination (AUC curve), and clinical usefulness (net benefit, graphically assessed in decision curves). RESULTS: The AUCs of the ERSPC DRE-based RC ranged from 0.61 to 0.77 and were substantially larger than the AUCs of a model based on only PSA + DRE (ranging from 0.56 to 0.72) in each of the 6 cohorts. The ERSPC DRE-based RC provided net benefit over performing a prostate biopsy on the basis of PSA and DRE outcome in five of the six cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: Identifying men at increased risk for having a biopsy detectable prostate cancer should consider multiple factors, including an estimate of prostate volume.

Blinded and uniform causes of death verification in cancer screening: a major influence on the outcome of a prostate cancer screening trial?

BACKGROUND: To assess the agreement between the causes of death assigned by a blinded and uniform review panel of the Rotterdam section of the European Randomised Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer and the official vital statistics and to explore the possible effect of the use of either of these two sources on the outcome of the screening trial. METHODS: A total of 670 deaths amongst men with prostate cancer, reviewed by the causes of death committee (CODC) up to 31st December 2006 were included in this study. The kappa statistics with confidence intervals (CI), sensitivity and specificity of the official statistics were determined, with the CODC considered the gold standard. The rate ratio (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for prostate cancer mortality, official statistics relative to CODC, were calculated following the Mantel-Haenszel procedure. RESULTS: The overall concordance and the kappa between official statistics and the CODC were 90.6% and 0.76 (0.71-0.82), remaining comparable when only the CODC category definitely prostate cancer was applied, with the sensitivity of official statistics increasing from 88.3% to 91.3% and specificity hardly changing (91.3% and 90.5%). High specificity and lower sensitivity is observed in the screening arm, whilst the opposite was seen in the control arm in men aged 55-69 and 70-74 years at entry. Considerable lower false positive rate was seen for both age groups in the screening arm (3.9% and 4.7%) compared to the control arm (8.4% and 14.3%). A statistically significant excess of prostate cancer death was observed for the official statistics in the age group 70-74 years, 1.53 (1.07-2.19), whilst it was not significant for men aged 55-69 at entry, 1.06 (0.83-1.36). CONCLUSION: In the Rotterdam ERSPC section, official statistics tended to overreport prostate cancer as an underlying cause of death, particularly in the age group 70-plus in the control arm, which would overestimate the true effect in favour of screening.

A four-kallikrein panel for the prediction of repeat prostate biopsy: data from the European Randomized Study of Prostate Cancer screening in Rotterdam, Netherlands.

BACKGROUND: Most men with elevated levels of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) do not have prostate cancer, leading to a large number of unnecessary biopsies. A statistical model based on a panel of four kallikreins has been shown to predict the outcome of a first prostate biopsy. In this study, we apply the model to an independent data set of men with previous negative biopsy but persistently elevated PSA. METHODS: The study cohort consisted of 925 men with a previous negative prostate biopsy and elevated PSA (>or=3 ng ml(-1)), with 110 prostate cancers detected (12%). A previously published statistical model was applied, with recalibration to reflect the lower positive biopsy rates on rebiopsy. RESULTS: The full-kallikrein panel had higher discriminative accuracy than PSA and DRE alone, with area under the curve (AUC) improving from 0.58 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.52, 0.64) to 0.68 (95% CI: 0.62, 0.74), P<0.001, and high-grade cancer (Gleason >or=7) at biopsy with AUC improving from 0.76 (95% CI: 0.64, 0.89) to 0.87 (95% CI: 0.81, 0.94), P=0.003). Application of the panel to 1000 men with persistently elevated PSA after initial negative biopsy, at a 15% risk threshold would reduce the number of biopsies by 712; would miss (or delay) the diagnosis of 53 cancers, of which only 3 would be Gleason 7 and the rest Gleason 6 or less. CONCLUSIONS: Our data constitute an external validation of a previously published model. The four-kallikrein panel predicts the result of repeat prostate biopsy in men with elevated PSA while dramatically decreasing unnecessary biopsies.

Prostate cancer: trends in incidence, survival and mortality in the Netherlands, 1989-2006.

BACKGROUND: Prostate cancer occurrence and stage distribution changed dramatically during the end of the 20th century. This study aimed to quantify and explain trends in incidence, stage distribution, survival and mortality in the Netherlands between 1989 and 2006. METHODS: Population-based data from the nationwide Netherlands Cancer Registry and Causes of Death Registry were used. Annual incidence and mortality rates were calculated and age-adjusted to the European Standard Population. Trends in rates were evaluated by age, clinical stage and differentiation grade. RESULTS: 120,965 men were newly diagnosed with prostate cancer between 1989 and 2006. Age-adjusted incidence rates increased from 63 to 104 per 100,000 person-years in this period. Two periods of increasing incidence rates could be distinguished with increases predominantly in cT2-tumours between 1989 and 1995 and predominantly in cT1c-tumours since 2001. cT4/N+/M+-tumour incidence rates decreased from 23 in 1993 to 18 in 2006. The trend towards earlier detection was accompanied by a lower mean age at diagnosis (from 74 in 1989 to 70 in 2006), increased frequency of treatment with curative intent and improved 5-year relative survival. Mortality rates decreased from 34 in 1996 to 26 in 2007. CONCLUSIONS: The increase of prostate cancer incidence in the early 1990s was probably caused by increased prostate cancer awareness combined with diagnostic improvements (transrectal ultrasound, (thin) needle biopsies), but not PSA testing. The subsequent peak since 2001 is probably attributable to PSA testing. The decline in prostate cancer mortality from 1996 onwards may be the consequence of increased detection of cT2-tumours between 1989 and 1995. Unfortunately, data on the use of PSA tests and other prostate cancer diagnostics to support these conclusions are lacking.

The interobserver variability of digital rectal examination in a large randomized trial for the screening of prostate cancer.

BACKGROUND: To analyze to what extent the percentage of suspicious digital rectal examination (DRE) findings vary between examiners and to what extent the percentage of prostate cancers (PCs) detected in men with these suspicious findings varies between examiners. METHODS: In the first screening round of the European Randomized study of Screening for PC (ERSPC) Rotterdam, 7,280 men underwent a PSA-determination and DRE of whom 2,102 underwent prostate biopsy (biopsy indication PSA > or = 4.0 ng/ml and/or suspicious DRE and/or TRUS). Descriptive statistics of DRE-outcome per PSA-range were used to determine the observer variability of six examiners. Because this analysis did not correct properly for other predictors of a suspicious DRE (PSA-level, biopsy indication, TRUS-outcome, prostate volume and age), a logistic regression analysis controlling for these explanatory variables was performed as well. RESULTS: In 2,102 men biopsied, 443 PCs were detected (PPV = 21%). For all PSA levels the percentage suspicious DRE varied between examiners from 4% to 28% and percentage PC detected in men with a suspicious DRE varied from 18% to 36%. Logistic regression analysis showed that three of six examiners considered DRE significantly more often abnormal than others (ORs 3.48, 2.80, 2.47, P < 0.001). For all examiners the odds to have PC was statistically significantly higher in case of a suspicious DRE (ORs 2.21-5.96, P < 0.05). This increased chance to find PC was not significantly observer-dependent. CONCLUSIONS: Three of six examiners considered DRE significantly more often suspicious than the others. However, under equal circumstances a suspicious DRE executed by each examiner increased the chance of the presence of PC similarly.

Overdiagnosis and overtreatment of early detected prostate cancer.

Early detection of prostate cancer is associated with the diagnosis of a considerable proportion of cancers that are indolent, and that will hardly ever become symptomatic during lifetime. Such overdiagnosis should be avoided in all forms of screening because of potential adverse psychological and somatic side effects. The main threat of overdiagnosis is overtreatment of indolent disease. Men with prostate cancer that is likely to be indolent may be offered active surveillance. Evaluation of active surveillance studies and validation of new biological parameters for risk assessment are expected.

Prediction of indolent prostate cancer: validation and updating of a prognostic nomogram.

PURPOSE: Screening with serum prostate specific antigen testing leads to the detection of many prostate cancers early in their natural history. Statistical models have been proposed to predict indolent cancer. We validated and updated model predictions for a screening setting. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We selected 247 patients with clinical stage T1C or T2A from the European Randomized Study on Screening for Prostate Cancer who were treated with radical prostatectomy. We validated a nomogram that had previously been developed in a clinical setting. Predictive characteristics were serum prostate specific antigen, ultrasound prostate volume, clinical stage, prostate biopsy Gleason grade, and total length of cancer and noncancer tissue in biopsy cores. Indolent cancer was defined as pathologically organ confined cancer 0.5 cc or less in volume without poorly differentiated elements. Logistic regression was used to update the previous model and examine the contribution of other potential predictors. RESULTS: Overall 121 of 247 patients (49%) had indolent cancer, while the average predicted probability was around 20% (p <0.001). Effects of individual variables were similar to those found before and discriminative ability was adequate (AUC 0.76). An updated model was constructed, which merely recalibrated the nomogram and did not apply additional predictors. CONCLUSIONS: Prostate cancers identified in a screening setting have a substantially higher likelihood of being indolent than those predicted by a previously proposed nomogram. However, an updated model can support patients and clinicians when the various treatment options for prostate cancer are considered.

Anxiety and depression after prostate cancer diagnosis and treatment: 5-year follow-up.

To document anxiety and depression from pretreatment till 5-year follow-up in 299 men with localized prostate cancer. To assess, if baseline scores were predictive for anxiety and depression at 1-year follow-up. Respondents completed four assessments (pretreatment, at 6 and 12 months, and at 5-year follow-up) on anxiety, depression and mental health. Respondents were subdivided according to therapy (prostatectomy or radiotherapy) and high vs low-anxiety. Pretreatment 28% of all patients were classified as 'high-anxiety'; their average anxiety scores decreased significantly post-treatment, that is towards less anxiety. At all assessments, high-anxiety men treated by prostatectomy reported less depression than high-anxiety men treated by radiotherapy. Of men treated by radiotherapy, 27% reported clinical significant levels of depression while 20% is expected in a general population. The improvement in mental health at 6-months follow-up was statistically significant and clinically meaningful in all respondent groups. Sensitivity of anxiety at baseline as a screening tool was 71% for anxiety and 60% for symptoms of depression. We recommend clinicians to attempt early detection of patients at risk of high levels of anxiety and depression after prostate cancer diagnosis since prevalence is high. STAI-State can be a useful screening tool but needs further development.

Very late local recurrence after surgery for prostate cancer unaccompanied by detectable PSA levels.

The possibility and possible aetiology of local prostate cancer (PC) recurrence despite undetectable prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels are highlighted. A case of a local recurrence 8.5 years after radical prostatectomy for Gleason 3+4 PC is presented. It demonstrates that PC can recur, even after a prolonged period of time (8.5 years), despite undetectable levels (i.e. <0.02 ng/ml) of PSA. In conclusion, the decision to omit digital rectal examination from the follow-up regimens of men with undetectable PSA levels could be justified. In such exceptional cases, however, PC recurrence would be either missed or would only be diagnosed after a considerable delay.

Innovations in serum and urine markers in prostate cancer current European research in the P-Mark project.

An overview is given of serum and urine prostate cancer markers that are currently under investigation and subsequently the P-Mark project is introduced. There are many markers showing promise to overcome the limitations of prostate specific antigen (PSA). Eventually, these markers should be able to increase the specificity in diagnosis, differentiate between harmless and aggressive disease and identify progression towards androgen independence at an early stage. In the P-Mark project, several recently developed, promising markers will be evaluated using clinically well-defined biorepositories. Following successful evaluation, these markers will be validated on a sample set derived from two large, European, prostate cancer studies and used for the identification of special risk groups in the general population. In addition, novel markers will be identified in the same biorepositories by different mass spectrometry techniques.

Features of prostate cancers detected during a prevalence screening round. The Rotterdam experience.

INTRODUCTION: Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing of asymptomatic men may lead to the detection of "minimal" prostate cancers that are less likely to be associated with morbidity or mortality. OBJECTIVE: To examine the significance of various diagnostic outcomes from needle biopsies of the prostate in an asymptomatic population of men. METHODS: Prostatic needle biopsy findings were matched with those from radical prostatectomy specimens using data from the Rotterdam section of the European Randomized study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC). Men, aged between 55 and 75 years, with elevated PSA levels underwent lateralized sextant needle biopsies. In corresponding radical prostatectomy specimens, the tumor categories (minimal, moderate, or advanced) were determined. RESULTS: Prostate cancer was diagnosed in 5.1% of 19,970 screened men, and 31.6 % of the men had cancers that were categorized as "minimal." Repeat biopsies performed after initial diagnoses of either isolated prostatic intra-epithelial neoplasia (PIN) or "suspicious for malignancy," detected adenocarcinoma in 12.1%and 36.5 % of the men, respectively. In a substudy of 510 men with a benign biopsy outcome 12 months previously, repeat biopsies detected adenocarcinoma in 12.4 of the men. Of men who were subsequently treated with radical prostatectomy, the cancers were classified as "minimal" in 27.8% of the men with previously benign biopsies and in 47.4% of the men with previously suspicious lesions, CONCLUSIONS: The chance of finding a "minimal" prostate cancer in an asymptomatic population is substantial and increases when a repeat biopsy is performed following a biopsy with a suspicious outcome.

[Diagnosis based on prostate needle biopsy: inadequate correlation between pathologic results and clinical course for individual prognosis]. / Diagnostiek op prostaatbiopten: onvoldoende verband tussen pathologische uitslag en klinisch beloop voor een individuele prognose.

Since the introduction of serum testing for prostate-specific antigen (PSA) in 1990 for the early detection of prostate cancer, the number of men undergoing a prostate needle-biopsy procedure has increased dramatically. In order to highlight the significance of the various diagnostic outcomes of a prostate needle biopsy, the pathological findings from needle biopsies were compared with those from samples taken during radical prostatectomy and in follow-up biopsies, using data from the 'European randomised screening for prostate cancer' (ERSPC) trial. In men with an elevated PSA value and a benign or negative needle-biopsy result, 10-15% were found to have prostate cancer in follow-up biopsies. In men with a needle-biopsy diagnosis of adenocarcinoma, 29% were found to have questionable histopathological characteristics or minimal cancer that did not require therapy. The incidence of minimal cancer increased to 70% among men with a needle-biopsy diagnosis of focal carcinoma, i.e. a small focus (< 3 mm diameter) of well-differentiated adenocarcinoma, based on one biopsy from a series of six. In men with a needle-biopsy diagnosis of 'suspected malignancy' 36.5% were found to have prostate cancer in follow-up biopsies. In men with a needle-biopsy diagnosis of 'high grade prostatic intra-epithelial neoplasia' 13% were found to have prostate cancer in follow-up biopsies. This percentage was not significantly higher than the percentage of cancers detected after an initially benign biopsy outcome. To avoid over-treatment of a substantial number of men who lack symptoms of prostate cancer but are diagnosed on the basis of biopsy results, it is vital that clinical/pathologic parameters are developed and validated that can help in deciding whether to initiate curative treatment immediately.

Additional use of [-2] precursor prostate-specific antigen and "benign" PSA at diagnosis in screen-detected prostate cancer.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the adjuvant clinical use of [-2] precursor prostate-specific antigen ([-2]pPSA), which is associated with prostate cancer (PCa), and "benign" PSA, related to benign prostatic hyperplasia, in selecting a treatment strategy in patients with screen-detected PCa. METHODS: Research-use immunoassays (Beckman Coulter) were used to measure [-2]pPSA, sum [-7, -5, -4, and -2]pPSA, and benign PSA from the frozen serum of participants from the screen arm of the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer, section Rotterdam, diagnosed with PCa with a serum PSA level lower than 15 ng/mL. We compared men with relatively benign PCa (Epstein's criteria; group 1) and men with arbitrarily defined aggressive PCa characteristics (Gleason score greater than 4 + 4 and more than four cores with PCa invasion or pT3C disease; group 2). RESULTS: The data of 61 patients were evaluated. The median age in both groups was 68 years. Total PSA performed best in a univariate analysis, although in the multivariate analysis, the combination of pPSA and percent free PSA could correctly predict 95.5% of group 1 and 82.4% of group 2. The pPSA and percent free PSA forms remained statistically significant in the multivariate analysis of a subgroup of 30 participants normalized for PSA level and prostate volume; combined they correctly identified 89.5% and 54.5% of patients identified as having relatively favorable and aggressive PCa characteristics, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Adjuvant clinical use of pPSA over traditional parameters in selecting treatment strategies for men with PCa cannot yet be definitely determined. However, the promising results in a subgroup analysis warrant further investigation.

Screening for prostate cancer.

Epidemiologically, prostate cancer is the most common cancer in the Western world after skin cancer. To date, it is still unknown whether screening for prostate cancer is justified, because results of randomised clinical trials are not yet available. The available screening tests (i.e. prostate-specific antigen (PSA) test) do not always detect cancers that otherwise would have resulted in prostate cancer mortality. Favourable results from prostate cancer screening include an increasing number of men with localised disease and an increase in the number of well-differentiated tumours. However, the risk of overdiagnosis and subsequent over-treatment (due to the diagnosis of localised disease), using aggressive therapies fuels arguments against screening. Therefore, until more evidence is available proving otherwise, prostate cancer screening can only be justified in the context of clinical trials.

Atrophy in prostate needle biopsy cores and its relationship to prostate cancer incidence in screened men.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate whether the incidence of atrophy reported on sextant biopsies is associated with subsequent prostate cancer detection and to obtain a more thorough analysis of the different categories and extent of atrophy, we performed a review of benign biopsy cores. METHODS: In the Rotterdam section of the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer, 4117 and 1840 men underwent sextant biopsy in the first and second screening round (4-year interval), respectively. Sextant biopsy was prompted by elevated prostate-specific antigen levels. For review, randomly taken benign sextant biopsies (n = 202) with a follow-up of at least 8 years were chosen. RESULTS: Before review, atrophy was reported in the biopsies of 11.4% and 8.7% of the first and second round, respectively. The prostate cancer incidence during 8 years of follow-up after an initial diagnosis of atrophy was 10.4%, which was not significantly different than the 12.3% of cancers detected after a benign diagnosis without reference to atrophy. After review, the incidence of simple atrophy, post-atrophic hyperplasia, and sclerotic atrophy in sextant biopsies was 91%, 47%, and 9%, respectively. Extensive atrophy was observed in 5% of biopsies. Only 2 men (4.7%) in the reviewed group had a subsequent diagnosis of prostate cancer in the 8 years of follow-up. Additionally, prostatic intraepithelial neoplasia was diagnosed in 3 men (7.0%) in the second screening round. CONCLUSIONS: Atrophy, especially its simple form, is a very common lesion in prostate biopsy cores (94%). Atrophy in an asymptomatic population undergoing screening was not associated with a greater prostate cancer or prostatic intraepithelial neoplasia incidence during subsequent screening rounds.