Age and Framing Effects in the Balloon Analogue Risk Task.

OBJECTIVES: Prior research has documented age differences in risky decisions and indicates that they are susceptible to gain versus loss framing. However, previous studies focused on "decisions from description" that explicitly spell out the probabilities involved. The present study expands this literature by examining the effects of framing on age differences in the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART), a widely used and ecologically valid measure of experience-based risky decision making that involves pumping a virtual balloon. METHODS: In a preregistered study, younger (aged 18-30, n = 129) and older adults (aged 60 and older, n = 125) were randomly assigned to either a gain version of the BART, where pumping the balloon added monetary gains, or a loss version, where pumping the balloon avoided monetary losses. RESULTS: We found a significant age by frame interaction on risk-taking: in the loss frame, older adults pumped more frequently and experienced more popped balloons than younger adults, whereas in the gain frame no significant age differences were found. Total performance on the BART did not vary by age or frame. Supplementary analyses indicated that age differences in pumping rates were most pronounced at the beginning of the BART and leveled off in subsequent trials. Controlling for age differences in motivation, personality, and cognition did not account for age differences in risk-taking. DISCUSSION: In combination, findings suggest that age differences in risk-taking on the BART are more pronounced when the task context emphasizes avoiding losses rather than achieving gains.

Using postal change-of-address data to predict second waves in infections near pandemic epicentres.

We propose that postal Change-of-Address (CoA) data can be used to monitor/predict likely second wave caseloads in viral infections around urban epicentres. To illustrate the idea, we focus on the tri-state area consisting of New York City (NYC) and surrounding counties in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut States. NYC was an early epicentre of the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic, with a first peak in daily cases in early April 2020, followed by the second peak in May/June 2020. Using CoA data from the US Postal Service (USPS), we show that, despite a quarantine mandate, there was a large net movement of households from NYC to surrounding counties in the period April-June 2020. This net outward migration of households was strongly correlated with both the timing and the number of cases in the second peaks in Covid-19 cases in the surrounding counties. The timing of the second peak was also correlated with the distance of the county from NYC, suggesting that this was a directed flow and not random diffusion. Our analysis shows that CoA data is a useful method in tracking the spread of an infectious pandemic agent from urban epicentres.

Migration of households from New York City and the Second Peak in Covid-19 cases in New Jersey, Connecticut and New York Counties.

The five boroughs of New York City (NYC) were early epicenters of the Covid-19 pandemic in the United States, with over 380,000 cases by May 31. High caseloads were also seen in nearby counties in New Jersey (NJ), Connecticut (CT) and New York (NY). The pandemic started in the area in March with an exponential rise in the number of daily cases, peaked in early April, briefly declined, and then, showed clear signs of a second peak in several counties. We will show that despite control measures such as lockdown and restriction of movement during the exponential rise in daily cases, there was a significant net migration of households from NYC boroughs to the neighboring counties in NJ, CT and NY State. We propose that the second peak in daily cases in these counties around NYC was due, in part, to the movement of people from NYC boroughs to these counties. We estimate the movement of people using "Change of Address" (CoA) data from the US Postal Service, provided under the "Freedom of Information Act" of 1967. To identify the timing of the second peak and the number of cases in it, we use a previously proposed SIR model, which accurately describes the early stages of the coronavirus pandemic in European countries. Subtracting the model fits from the data identified, we establish the timing and the number of cases, NCS, in the second peak. We then related the number of cases in the second peak to the county population density, P, and the excess Change of Address, ECoA, into each county using the simple model NCS~PαECoAß which fits the data very well with α = 0.68, ß = 0.31 (R2 = 0.74, p = 1.3e-8). We also find that the time between the first and second peaks was proportional to the distance of the county seat from NY Penn Station, suggesting that this migration of households and disease was a directed flow and not a diffusion process. Our analysis provides a simple method to use change of address data to track the spread of an infectious agent, such as SARS-Cov-2, due to migrations away from epicenters during the initial stages of a pandemic.

Investigation of round goby viral haemorrhagic septicaemia outbreak in New York.

Eleven viral haemorrhagic septicaemia virus (VHSV) genotype IVb isolates were sequenced, and their genetic variation explored to determine the source of a VHS outbreak on the eastern shore of Cayuga Lake. An active fish kill of round gobies (Neogobius melanostomus, Pallas) was intensively sampled at King Ferry, NY and nearby Long Point State Park in May 2017. Gross lesions observed on 67 moribund round gobies and two rock bass (Ambloplites rupestris, Rafinesque) included moderately haemorrhagic internal organs and erythematous areas on the head, flank, and fins. RT-qPCR tests for VHSV were positive for all 69 fish. Viral isolation on epithelioma papulosum cyprinid cells showed cytopathic effect characteristic of VHSV for six round goby samples from King Ferry. The complete nucleotide sequence of the VHSV IVb genomes of five Cayuga Lake round goby isolates were derived on an Illumina platform along with 2017 VHSV IVb isolates from round gobies collected from the following: Lake Erie near Dunkirk, NY; the St. Lawrence River near Clayton and Cape Vincent, NY; and Lake St. Lawrence near Massena, NY. The phylogenetic tree created from these aligned sequences and four other complete VHSV IVb genomes shows Cayuga Lake isolates are closely related to the Lake Erie isolates.