National trends in prescription drug expenditures and projections for 2024.

DISCLAIMER: In an effort to expedite the publication of articles, AJHP is posting manuscripts online as soon as possible after acceptance. Accepted manuscripts have been peer-reviewed and copyedited, but are posted online before technical formatting and author proofing. These manuscripts are not the final version of record and will be replaced with the final article (formatted per AJHP style and proofed by the authors) at a later time. PURPOSE: To report historical patterns of pharmaceutical expenditures, to identify factors that may influence future spending, and to predict growth in drug spending in 2024 in the United States, with a focus on the nonfederal hospital and clinic sectors. METHODS: Historical patterns were assessed by examining data on drug purchases from manufacturers using the IQVIA National Sales Perspectives database. Factors that may influence drug spending in hospitals and clinics in 2024 were reviewed-including new drug approvals, patent expirations, and potential new policies or legislation. Focused analyses were conducted for biosimilars, cancer drugs, endocrine drugs, generics, and specialty drugs. For nonfederal hospitals, clinics, and overall (all sectors), estimates of growth of pharmaceutical expenditures in 2024 were based on a combination of quantitative analyses and expert opinion. RESULTS: In 2023, overall pharmaceutical expenditures in the US grew 13.6% compared to 2022, for a total of $722.5 billion. Utilization (a 6.5% increase), new drugs (a 4.2% increase) and price (a 2.9% increase) drove this increase. Semaglutide was the top drug in 2023, followed by adalimumab and apixaban. Drug expenditures were $37.1 billion (a 1.1% decrease) and $135.7 billion (a 15.0% increase) in nonfederal hospitals and clinics, respectively. In clinics, increased utilization drove growth, with a small impact from price and new products. In nonfederal hospitals, a drop in utilization led the decrease in expenditures, with price and new drugs modestly contributing to growth in spending. Several new drugs that will influence spending are expected to be approved in 2024. Specialty, endocrine, and cancer drugs will continue to drive expenditures. CONCLUSION: For 2024, we expect overall prescription drug spending to rise by 10.0% to 12.0%, whereas in clinics and hospitals we anticipate an 11.0% to 13.0% increase and a 0% to 2.0% increase, respectively, compared to 2023. These national estimates of future pharmaceutical expenditure growth may not be representative of any health system because of the myriad of local factors that influence actual spending.

Adherence and persistence of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis use in the United States.

PURPOSE: To describe medication adherence and persistence of HIV PrEP overall and compare between sex and age groups of commercially insured individuals in the United States. METHODS: We conducted a national retrospective cohort study of the Merative MarketScan Claims Database from 2011 to 2019 to describe adherence and persistence of PrEP overall and compared between sex and age groups. High adherence was defined as ≥80% of proportion of days covered and persistence was measured in days from initiation to the first day of a 60-day treatment gap. RESULTS: A total of 29 689 new PrEP users identified. Overall adherence was high (81.9%; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 81.5%-82.3%). Females were more adherent than males (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.87; 95% CI: 1.50-2.34), while those ≥45-years were less adherent than individuals <45-years (aOR 0.87: 95% CI: 0.81-0.93). More than half of individuals discontinued therapy within the first year (median 238.0 days; interquartile range 99.0-507.0 days). Females were less persistent than males (hazard ratio [HR] 1.49; 95% CI: 1.34-1.65), and people ≥45-years old were more persistent (i.e., lower risk of discontinuation) than those <45-years (HR 0.43; 95% CI: 0.33-0.55). CONCLUSIONS: These findings show adherence to daily PrEP is high among commercially insured individuals but the majority still discontinue in the first year. Future research should investigate what factors influence PrEP discontinuation among this population and ways to reduce barriers to therapy maintenance to ensure the population-level benefits of PrEP treatment.

Trends of nonoccupational postexposure prophylaxis in the United States.

OBJECTIVE: To describe national annual rates of nonoccupational postexposure prophylaxis (nPEP) in the United States. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study of commercially insured individuals in the Merative MarketScan Database from January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2019. METHODS: Patients at least 13 years old prescribed nPEP per recommended Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines were identified using pharmacy claims. Rates of use were described overall and stratified by sex, age group, and region. These rates were qualitatively compared to the diagnosis rates of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) observed in the data. Joinpoint analysis identified inflection points of nPEP use. RESULTS: Eleven thousand, three hundred and ninety-seven nPEP users were identified, with a mean age of 33.7 years. Most were males (64.6%) and lived in the south (33.2%) and northeast (32.4%). The rate of nPEP use increased 515%, from 1.42 nPEP users per 100 000 enrollees in 2010 to 8.71 nPEP users per 10 000 enrollees in 2019. The comparative nPEP use rates among subgroups largely mirrored their HIV diagnosis rates, that is, subgroups with a higher HIV rate had higher nPEP use. In the Joinpoint analysis significant growth was observed from 2012 to 2015 [estimated annual percentage change (EAPC): 45.8%; 95% confidence interval (CI): 29.4 - 64.3] followed by a more moderate increase from 2015 to 2019 (EAPC 16.0%; 95% CI: 12.6-19.6). CONCLUSIONS: nPEP use increased from 2010 to 2019, but not equally across all risk groups. Further policy interventions should be developed to reduce barriers and ensure adequate access to this important HIV prevention tool.

Evaluating the use of methods to mitigate bias from non-transient medications in the case-crossover design: A systematic review.

PURPOSE: The case-crossover design is a self-controlled study design used to compare exposure immediately preceding an event occurrence with exposure in earlier control periods. The design is most suitable for transient exposures in order to avoid biases that can be problematic when using the case-crossover design for non-transient (i.e., chronic) exposures. Our goal was to conduct a systematic review of case-crossover studies and its variants (case-time-control and case-case-time-control) in order to compare design and analysis choices by medication type. METHODS: We conducted a systematic search to identify recent case-crossover, case-time-control, and case-case-time-control studies focused on medication exposures. Articles indexed in MEDLINE and EMBASE using these study designs that were published between January 2015 and December 2021 in the English language were identified. Reviews, methodological studies, commentaries, articles without medications as the exposure of interest, and articles with no available full text were excluded. Study characteristics including study design, outcome, risk window, control window, reporting of discordant pairs, and inclusion of sensitivity analyses were summarized overall and by medication type. We further evaluated the implementation of recommended methods to account for biases introduced by non-transient exposures among articles that used the case-crossover design on a non-transient exposure. RESULTS: Of the 2036 articles initially identified, 114 articles were included. The case-crossover was the most common study design (88%), followed by the case-time-control (17%), and case-case-time-control (3%). Fifty-three percent of the articles included only transient medications, 35% included only non-transient medications, and 12% included both. Across years, the proportion of case-crossover articles evaluating a non-transient medication ranged from 30% in 2018 to 69% in 2017. We found that 41% of the articles that evaluated a non-transient medication did not apply any of the recommended methods to account for biases and more than half of which were conducted by authors with no previous publication history of case-crossover studies. CONCLUSION: Using the case-crossover design to evaluate a non-transient medication remains common in pharmacoepidemiology. Researchers should apply appropriate design and analysis choices when opting to use a case-crossover design with non-transient medication exposures.

Adherence to HIV Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis Testing Guidelines in the United States.

Testing guidelines for initiation of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) have been developed to ensure appropriate use of PrEP, such as among those with renal dysfunction or at high risk of seroconversion. While many studies have looked at the trends of use of PrEP in the United States, little is known about compliance with these guidelines, the quality of care of PrEP at a national level, or what provider-level factors are associated with high-quality care. We conducted a retrospective claims analysis of providers of commercially insured new users of PrEP between January 1, 2011, and December 31, 2019. Of the 4200 providers, quality of care was low, with only 6.4% having claims for ≥60% of guideline-recommended testing for their patients in the testing window for all visits. More than half of the providers did not have claims for HIV testing at initiation of PrEP and ≥40% did not for sexually transmitted infections at both initiation and follow-up visits. Even when extending the testing window, quality of care remained low. Logistic regression models found no association between provider type and high quality of care, but did find that providers with one PrEP patient were more likely to have higher quality of care than those with multiple patients for all tests [adjusted odds ratio 0.47 (95% confidence interval: 0.33-0.67)]. The study findings suggest further training and interventions, such as integrated test ordering through electronic health records, are needed to increase quality of care for PrEP and ensure appropriate monitoring of patients.

National trends in prescription drug expenditures and projections for 2023.

PURPOSE: To report historical patterns of pharmaceutical expenditures, to identify factors that may influence future spending, and to predict growth in drug spending in 2023 in the United States, with a focus on the nonfederal hospital and clinic sectors. METHODS: Historical patterns were assessed by examining data on drug purchases from manufacturers using the IQVIA National Sales Perspectives database. Factors that may influence drug spending in hospitals and clinics in 2023 were reviewed, including new drug approvals, patent expirations, and potential new policies or legislation. Focused analyses were conducted for biosimilars, cancer drugs, diabetes medications, generics, COVID-19 pandemic influence, and specialty drugs. For nonfederal hospitals, clinics, and overall (all sectors), estimates of growth of pharmaceutical expenditures in 2023 were based on a combination of quantitative analyses and expert opinion. RESULTS: In 2022, overall pharmaceutical expenditures in the US grew 9.4% compared to 2021, for a total of $633.5 billion. Utilization (a 5.9% increase), price (a 1.7% increase) and new drugs (a 1.8% increase) drove this increase. Adalimumab was the top-selling drug in 2022, followed by semaglutide and apixaban. Drug expenditures were $37.2 billion (a 5.9% decrease) and $116.9 billion (a 10.4% increase) in nonfederal hospitals and clinics, respectively. In clinics, new products and increased utilization growth drove growth, with a small impact from price changes. In nonfederal hospitals, a drop in utilization led to a decrease in expenditures, with price changes and new drugs contributing to growth in spending. Several new drugs that will influence spending have been or are expected to be approved in 2023. Specialty and cancer drugs will continue to drive expenditures along with the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic. CONCLUSION: For 2023, we expect overall prescription drug spending to rise by 6.0% to 8.0%, whereas in clinics and hospitals we anticipate increases of 8.0% to 10.0% and 1.0% to 3.0%, respectively, compared to 2022. These national estimates of future pharmaceutical expenditure growth may not be representative of any particular health system because of the myriad of local factors that influence actual spending.

National trends in prescription drug expenditures and projections for 2022.

PURPOSE: To report historical patterns of pharmaceutical expenditures, to identify factors that may influence future spending, and to predict growth in drug spending in 2022 in the United States, with a focus on the nonfederal hospital and clinic sectors. METHODS: Historical patterns were assessed by examining data on drug purchases from manufacturers using the IQVIA National Sales Perspectives database. Factors that may influence drug spending in hospitals and clinics in 2022 were reviewed-including new drug approvals, patent expirations, and potential new policies or legislation. Focused analyses were conducted for biosimilars, cancer drugs, generics, COVID-19 pandemic influence, and specialty drugs. For nonfederal hospitals, clinics, and overall (all sectors), estimates of growth of pharmaceutical expenditures in 2022 were based on a combination of quantitative analyses and expert opinion. RESULTS: In 2021, overall pharmaceutical expenditures in the US grew 7.7% compared to 2020, for a total of $576.9 billion. Utilization (a 4.8% increase), price (a 1.9% increase) and new drugs (a 1.1% increase) drove this increase. Adalimumab was the top drug in terms of overall expenditures in 2021, followed by apixaban and dulaglutide. Drug expenditures were $39.6 billion (a 8.4% increase) and $105.0 billion (a 7.7% increase) in nonfederal hospitals and in clinics, respectively. In clinics and hospitals, new products and increased utilization growth drove growth, with decreasing prices for both sectors acting as an expense restraint. Several new drugs that are likely to influence spending are expected to be approved in 2022. Specialty and cancer drugs will continue to drive expenditures along with the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic. CONCLUSION: For 2022, we expect overall prescription drug spending to rise by 4.0% to 6.0%, whereas in clinics and hospitals we anticipate increases of 7.0% to 9.0% and 3.0% to 5.0%, respectively, compared to 2021. These national estimates of future pharmaceutical expenditure growth may not be representative of any particular health system because of the myriad of local factors that influence actual spending.

Risk of fall-related injury and all-cause hospitalization of select concomitant central nervous system medication prescribing in older adult persistent opioid users: A case-time-control analysis.

BACKGROUND: Concomitant use of central nervous system (CNS) medications frequently occurs in older adults with persistent opioid use. The risks of adverse outcomes associated with combinations of opioids, sedative hypnotics, or skeletal muscle relaxants have not been sufficiently described in this population. OBJECTIVE: To compare the overall and incremental risk of (1) fall-related injury and (2) all-cause hospitalization associated with sedative hypnotics and skeletal muscle relaxants among older persistent opioid users. METHODS: A case-time-control study was conducted using administrative claims of adults ages ≥66 years with a history of persistent (≥90 days) opioid use. Cases included those with first (1) emergency department, hospital, or outpatient visit for a fall-related injury, or (2) all-cause hospitalization. Exposure to CNS medications prior to the case event versus earlier periods, and the risk associated with CNS drug class combinations and sequence of use, was estimated using conditional logistic regression, adjusted for time trends and time-varying covariates. RESULTS: Among 140,101 older persistent opioid users, 20,723 experienced fall-related injury and 39,444 were hospitalized during follow-up. Skeletal muscle relaxant use was associated with an increased risk of fall-related injury (Odds ratio [OR] 1.28) and all-cause hospitalization (OR 1.11). Statistically significant associations were observed for the joint effects of interactions involving skeletal muscle relaxants on fall-related injury (with opioid: OR 1.25; with sedative hypnotic: OR 1.24), and interactions involving opioids on all-cause hospitalization (with sedative hypnotic: OR 1.10; with skeletal muscle relaxant: OR 1.17). The addition of a skeletal muscle relaxant to an opioid regimen was associated with a 25% increased risk of fall-related injury. Additions of other CNS medications did not have apparent incremental effects on the risk of all-cause hospitalization. CONCLUSION: The excess risks of fall-related injury and hospitalization associated with various combinations of CNS medications among older persistent opioid users should be considered in therapeutic decision making. Further research is needed to confirm these findings.

National trends in prescription drug expenditures and projections for 2021.

PURPOSE: To report historical patterns of pharmaceutical expenditures, to identify factors that may influence future spending, and to predict growth in drug spending in 2021 in the United States, with a focus on the nonfederal hospital and clinic sectors. METHODS: Historical patterns were assessed by examining data on drug purchases from manufacturers using the IQVIA National Sales Perspectives database. Factors that may influence drug spending in hospitals and clinics in 2021 were reviewed-including new drug approvals, patent expirations, and potential new policies or legislation. Focused analyses were conducted for biosimilars, cancer drugs, generics, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic influence, and specialty drugs. For nonfederal hospitals, clinics, and overall (all sectors), estimates of growth of pharmaceutical expenditures in 2021 were based on a combination of quantitative analyses and expert opinion. RESULTS: In 2020, overall pharmaceutical expenditures in the United States grew 4.9% compared to 2019, for a total of $535.3 billion. Utilization (a 2.9% increase) and new drugs (a 1.8% increase) drove this increase, with price changes having minimal influence (a 0.3% increase). Adalimumab was the top drug in 2020, followed by apixaban and insulin glargine. Drug expenditures were $35.3 billion (a 4.6% decrease) and $98.4 billion (an 8.1% increase) in nonfederal hospitals and clinics, respectively. In clinics, growth was driven by new products and increased utilization, whereas in hospitals the decrease in expenditures was driven by reduced utilization. Several new drugs that will influence spending are expected to be approved in 2021. Specialty and cancer drugs will continue to drive expenditures along with the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic. CONCLUSION: For 2021, we expect overall prescription drug spending to rise by 4% to 6%, whereas in clinics and hospitals we anticipate increases of 7% to 9% and 3% to 5%, respectively, compared to 2020. These national estimates of future pharmaceutical expenditure growth may not be representative of any particular health system because of the myriad of local factors that influence actual spending.

Risk of cardiac events with azithromycin-A prediction model.

Previous studies have suggested an increased risk of cardiac events with azithromycin, but the predictors of such events are unknown. We sought to develop and validate two prediction models to identify such predictors. We used data from Truven Marketscan Database (01/2009 to 06/2015). Using a split-sample approach, we developed two prediction models, which included baseline demographics, clinical conditions (Model 1), concurrent use of any drug (Model 1) and therapeutic class (Model 2) with a risk of QT-prolongation (CQT-Rx). Patients enrolled in a health plan for 365 days before and five days after dispensing of azithromycin (episodes). Cardiac events included syncope, palpitations, ventricular arrhythmias, cardiac arrest as a primary diagnosis for hospitalization including death. For each model, a backward elimination of predictors using logistic regression was applied to identify predictors in 100 random samples of the training cohort. Predictors prevalent in >50% of the models were included in the final model. A score for the Assessment of Cardiac Risk with Azithromycin (ACRA) was generated using the training cohort then tested in the validation cohort. A cohort of 20,134,659 episodes with 0.03% cardiac events were included. Over 60% included females with mean age of 40.1±21.3 years. Age, sex, history of syncope, cardiac dysrhythmias, non-specific chest pain, and presence of a CQT-Rx were included as predictors for Model-1 (c-statistic = 0.68). For Model-2 (c-statistic = 0.64), predictors included age, sex, anti-arrhythmic agents, anti-emetics, antidepressants, loop diuretics, and ACE inhibitors. ACRA score is available online (bit.ly/ACRA_2020). The ACRA score may help identify patients who are at higher risk of cardiac events following treatment with azithromycin. Providers should assess the risk-benefit of using azithromycin and consider alternative antibiotics among high-risk patients.

Comparison of Cardiac Events Associated With Azithromycin vs Amoxicillin.

Importance: Conflicting evidence exists on the association between azithromycin use and cardiac events. Objective: To compare the odds of cardiac events among new users of azithromycin relative to new users of amoxicillin using real-world data. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study used data from Truven Health Analytics MarketScan database from January 1, 2009, to June 30, 2015. Patients receiving either amoxicillin or azithromycin and enrolled in a health care plan 365 days before (baseline period) the dispensing date (index date) were included in the study. Patients were matched 1:1 on high-dimensional propensity scores. Data were analyzed from October 1, 2018, to December 31, 2019. Exposures: New use of azithromycin compared with new use of amoxicillin. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome consisted of cardiac events, including syncope, palpitations, ventricular arrhythmias, cardiac arrest, or death as a primary diagnosis for hospitalization at 5, 10, and 30 days from the index date. Logistic regression models were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) with 95% CIs. Results: After matching, the final cohort included 2 141 285 episodes of each index therapy (N = 4 282 570) (mean [SD] age of patients, 35.7 [22.3] years; 52.6% female). Within 5 days after therapy initiation, 1474 cardiac events (0.03%) occurred (708 in the amoxicillin cohort and 766 in the azithromycin cohort). The 2 most frequent events were syncope (1032 [70.0%]) and palpitations (331 [22.5%]). The odds of cardiac events with azithromycin compared with amoxicillin were not significantly higher at 5 days (OR, 1.08; 95% CI, 0.98-1.20), 10 days (OR, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.97-1.15), and 30 days (OR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.92-1.04). Among patients receiving any concurrent QT-prolonging drug, the odds of cardiac events with azithromycin were 1.40 (95% CI, 1.04-1.87) greater compared with amoxicillin. Among patients 65 years or older and those with a history of cardiovascular disease and other risk factors, no increased risk of cardiac events with azithromycin was noted. Conclusions and Relevance: This study found no association of cardiac events with azithromycin compared with amoxicillin except among patients using other QT-prolonging drugs concurrently. Although azithromycin is a safe therapy, clinicians should carefully consider its use among patients concurrently using other QT-prolonging drugs.

National trends in prescription drug expenditures and projections for 2020.

PURPOSE: To report historical patterns of pharmaceutical expenditures, to identify factors that may influence future spending, and to predict growth in drug spending in 2020 in the United States, with a focus on the nonfederal hospital and clinic sectors. METHODS: Historical patterns were assessed by examining data on drug purchases from manufacturers using the IQVIA National Sales Perspectives database. Factors that may influence drug spending in hospitals and clinics in 2020 were reviewed, including new drug approvals, patent expirations, and potential new policies or legislation. Focused analyses were conducted for specialty drugs, biosimilars, and diabetes medications. For nonfederal hospitals, clinics, and overall (all sectors), estimates of growth of pharmaceutical expenditures in 2020 were based on a combination of quantitative analyses and expert opinion. RESULTS: In 2019, overall US pharmaceutical expenditures grew 5.4% compared to 2018, for a total of $507.9 billion. This increase was driven to similar degrees by prices, utilization, and new drugs. Adalimumab was the top drug in US expenditures in 2019, followed by apixaban and insulin glargine. Drug expenditures were $36.9 billion (a 1.5% increase from 2018) and $90.3 billion (an 11.8% increase from 2018) in nonfederal hospitals and clinics, respectively. In clinics, growth was driven by new products and increased utilization, whereas in hospitals growth was driven by new products and price increases. Several new drugs that will likely influence spending are expected to be approved in 2020. Specialty and cancer drugs will continue to drive expenditures. CONCLUSION: For 2020 we expect overall prescription drug spending to rise by 4.0% to 6.0%, whereas in clinics and hospitals we anticipate increases of 9.0% to 11.0% and 2.0% to 4.0%, respectively, compared to 2019. These national estimates of future pharmaceutical expenditure growth may not be representative of any particular health system because of the myriad of local factors that influence actual spending.

Estimating the Impact of Food and Drug Administration's Unapproved Drug Initiative on Drug Prices and Sales.

BACKGROUND: The 2006 FDA's Unapproved Drug Initiative (UDI) aimed to improve safety and public health by decreasing the availability of drug products that never obtained FDA approval (unapproved drug products) in the market and incentivizing manufacturers to emphasize that these products must obtain FDA approval. The objective of this study was to measure changes in the prices, sales, and quantities sold of drug products approved under the FDA-UDI. METHODS: Drug products that obtained voluntary approval under FDA-UDI from 2006 to 2015 were identified and trends in prices, sales, and units sold were analyzed using the IQVIA National Sales Perspective database. RESULTS: Eleven drug products were included in the final analysis. Relative to baseline levels 2 years before approval, a steep increase in price and sales was observed 2 years postapproval for all except 2 of the drug categories-with median percent change of 245% (range: -37% to 9618%) for price and 238% (range: -4% to 6707%) for sales. Substantial variance was observed in the changes in units sold. CONCLUSION: A marked increase was seen in postapproval prices and sales for the vast majority of drug products approved in the FDA-UDI with mixed results in changes in units sold. In addition to increased information on safety, the policy's impact on postapproval drug prices and associated effects on units sold should be considered in assessing the policy, especially when substantial price increases and decreases in units sold may negatively impact health.

Impact of multimorbidity subgroups on the health care use of early pediatric cancer survivors.

BACKGROUND: Although pediatric cancer survivors in the United States are at an increased risk of developing chronic conditions, to the authors' knowledge there is limited information regarding the types and combinations of conditions they experience in the years immediately after the completion of cancer therapy. METHODS: An observational cohort study of early pediatric cancer survivors (children who were ≥2 years from the end of therapy and aged ≤18 years) was conducted using the Truven Health MarketScan (r) Commercial Claims and Encounters database (2009-2014). Latent class analysis was used to identify comorbidity groups among the subset with ≥2 conditions. Group-level health care use was compared with survivors without chronic conditions using multivariate regression. RESULTS: A total of 3687 early survivors were identified, of whom approximately 41.2% had no chronic conditions, 22.5% had 1 chronic condition, and 36.3% had ≥2 chronic conditions. Among those with ≥2 chronic conditions, 5 groups emerged: 1) general pediatric morbidity (35.4%); 2) central nervous system (CNS) (22.4%); 3) mental health conditions (22.2%); 4) endocrine (26.2%); and 5) CNS with endocrine (3.8%). The CNS group experienced the highest expenditures, at $17,964 more per year (95% CI, $1446-$34,482) compared with survivors without chronic conditions. The CNS group also had the highest odds of an emergency department visit (adjusted odds ratio, 1.71; 95% CI, 1.15-2.56). The endocrine group had the highest odds of hospitalization (odds ratio, 2.29; 95% CI, 1.24-4.22). CONCLUSIONS: Multimorbidity is common among pediatric cancer survivors. The current study identified 5 distinct comorbidity subgroups, all of which experienced high, yet differential, rates of health care use. The results of the current study highlight the complex health care needs of early survivors and provide evidence for the design of targeted survivorship services and interventions.

Prevalence of Cardiac Risk Factors in Patients Prescribed Azithromycin before and after the 2012 FDA Warning on the Risk of Potentially Fatal Heart Rhythms.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To measure the prevalence of cardiac risk factors among patients prescribed azithromycin before and after the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) issued a warning on May 17, 2012, on the risk of potentially fatal heart rhythms associated with the drug. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study using administrative claims data. DATA SOURCE: Truven Health Analytics MarketScan database. PATIENTS: A total of 12,971,078 unique patients with 23,749,652 azithromycin prescriptions dispensed between January 2009 and June 2015 were included. Patients had to be continuously enrolled in a health plan for at least 365 days (baseline) before the date of azithromycin dispensing (index date). Cohorts were assigned based on the index dates of the azithromycin prescriptions, either before (January 1, 2009-May 1, 2012) or after (June 1, 2012-June 30, 2015) the FDA warning was issued. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: A cardiac risk factor included either a cardiac condition (heart failure or dysrhythmias) or concurrent use of drugs that prolong the QT interval. The unit of analysis was each prescription of azithromycin. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the prevalence of cardiac risk factors. Mean age of the patients was 40.1 ± 21.3 years old, with 60.8% females. Prior to the FDA warning, 11,596,022 (48.8%) azithromycin prescriptions were identified, and 12,153,630 (51.2%) were identified after the warning. The prevalence of a preexisting cardiac condition was 7.3% versus 7.9% (p<0.0001) before and after the FDA warning, respectively. Concurrent use of a QT-interval-prolonging drug was 23.3% versus 24.2% (p<0.0001) before and after the FDA warning, respectively. After controlling for confounders, the odds of having a cardiac risk factor after the FDA warning were significantly lower (odds ratio 0.938, 95% CI 0.936-0.940) compared with before the FDA warning. CONCLUSION: Despite the 2012 FDA warning, a nontrivial number of azithromycin prescriptions was prescribed concurrently in patients with preexisting a cardiac condition (1 of 12 azithromycin prescriptions) and in those using a QT-interval-prolonging drug (1 of 5 azithromycin prescriptions). After adjusting for confounders, the odds of cardiac risk factors being present in patients prescribed azithromycin were modestly lower after the warning; however, the prevalence remained essentially unchanged before and after the FDA warning was issued.

Adherence and Persistence with DPP-4 Inhibitors Versus Pioglitazone in Type 2 Diabetes Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease: A Retrospective Claims Database Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Adherence and persistence with diabetes medication play an important role in glycemic control and may differ by medication class. However, there is a lack of research comparing diabetes medications in patients with renal impairment, despite the challenges and higher burden associated with managing this population. OBJECTIVE: To compare adherence and persistence among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and nondialysis chronic kidney disease (CKD) treated with dipeptidyl peptidase-4 (DPP-4) inhibitors versus pioglitazone. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study used Truven MarketScan administrative claims databases from 2009 to 2015. One-year adherence for patients with T2DM and nondialysis CKD who initiated therapy with either a DPP-4 inhibitor or pioglitazone was measured by proportion of days covered (PDC) following an initial dispensing, and PDC ≥ 0.80 was coded as adherent. Persistence was calculated as the days between the index date and last day with the index medication on hand, based on the end of the last days supply or the end of follow-up (i.e., 365 days), whichever occurred first. Multivariate logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate confounder-adjusted differences between the groups for adherence and persistence. RESULTS: The final cohort included 9,019 patients (DPP-4 inhibitors: 7,002; pioglitazone: 2,017). In the adjusted analysis, DPP-4 inhibitor users demonstrated a 1.41 (95% CI = 1.25-1.59) higher odds of being adherent compared with pioglitazone users. Overall adjusted HR for persistence was 0.74 (95% CI = 0.69-0.79), which favored DPP-4 inhibitors compared with pioglitazone. Relative to 2010, persistence with pioglitazone decreased in 2011-2012 and then increased in 2013-2014. In the subgroup analysis, DPP-4 inhibitors first had lower (2010: OR = 0.78, 95% CI = 0.70-0.87; 2011-2012: OR = 0.60, 95% CI = 0.54-0.66) and then similar (2013-2014: OR = 1.03, 95% CI = 0.88-1.19) hazards of nonpersistence compared with pioglitazone. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with T2DM and nondialysis CKD, the use of DPP-4 inhibitors was associated with better adherence compared with pioglitazone. However, following the approval of generic pioglitazone and associated lower cost sharing after 2012, the magnitude of difference in adherence between the medication classes reduced. Similarly, safety warnings in 2011 and approval of generic products in 2012 may have affected pioglitazone persistence, leading to first higher and then similar hazards for nonpersistence with pioglitazone as compared with DPP-4 inhibitors. These shifts in the results for pioglitazone warrant further investigation and close monitoring of the population initiating this medication. DISCLOSURES: No funding was received for this study. The authors have no conflicts of interest to disclose. An abstract for this study was presented as a podium presentation at the International Society of Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) 2019 Annual Meeting; May 18-22, 2019; New Orleans, LA.

Sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors and the risk of fractures: A propensity score-matched cohort study.

PURPOSE: To determine the risk of fractures associated with sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) compared with dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP4i). METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using data from the Truven Health MarketScan (2009-2015) databases. Our cohort included patients newly initiating treatment with SGLT2i or DPP-4i between 1 April 2013 and 31 March 2015 that were matched 1:1 using high dimensional propensity scores. Patients were followed up in an as-treated approach starting from initiation of treatment until the earliest of any fracture, treatment discontinuation, disenrollment, or end of data (31 December 2015). Risk of fractures was determined at any time during the follow-up, early in therapy (1-14 days of the follow-up), and later in therapy (15 days and beyond). Cox proportional hazards models were used to determine hazard ratios and robust 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). RESULTS: After matching, our cohort included 30 549 patients in each treatment group. Over a median follow-up of 219 days, there were 745 fractures overall. The most common site for fractures was the foot (32.7%). The effect estimates for fracture risk occurring at any time during follow-up, early in therapy, and later in therapy were HR 1.11 [95% CI 0.96-1.28], HR 1.82 [95% CI 0.99-3.32], and HR 1.07 [95% CI 0.92-1.24], respectively. CONCLUSION: There is a possible increase in risk for fractures early in therapy with SGLT2i. Beyond this initial period, SGLT2is had no apparent effect on the incidence of fractures.

National trends in prescription drug expenditures and projections for 2019.

PURPOSE: Historical trends and factors likely to influence future pharmaceutical expenditures are discussed, and projections are made for drug spending in 2019 in nonfederal hospitals, clinics, and overall (all sectors). METHODS: Drug expenditure data through calendar year 2018 were obtained from the IQVIA National Sales Perspectives database and analyzed. New drug approvals, patent expirations, and other factors that may influence drug spending in hospitals and clinics in 2019 were also reviewed. Expenditure projections for 2019 for nonfederal hospitals, clinics, and overall (all sectors) were made through a combination of quantitative analyses and expert opinion. RESULTS: U.S. prescription sales in calendar year 2018 totaled $476.2 billion, a 5.5% increase from 2017 spending. The top 3 drugs by expenditures were adalimumab ($19.1 billion), insulin glargine ($9.3 billion), and etanercept ($8.0 billion). Prescription expenditures in nonfederal hospitals totaled $35.8 billion, a 4.8% increase from 2017. Expenditures in clinics in 2018 increased by 13.0% to $80.5 billion. The increase in spending in nonfederal hospitals was largely driven by new products and increased utilization of existing products. The list of the top 25 drugs by expenditures in nonfederal hospitals and clinics was dominated by specialty drugs. CONCLUSION: We predict continued moderate growth of 4-6% in overall drug expenditures (across the entire U.S. market). We expect the clinic sector to continue to experience high (11-13%) growth in drug spending in 2019. Finally, for nonfederal hospitals we anticipate growth in the range of 3-5%. These estimates are at the national level. Health-system pharmacy leaders should carefully examine local drug utilization patterns to determine their own organization's anticipated spending in 2019.

Multimorbidity and healthcare utilization among early survivors of pediatric cancer.

Early survivors of pediatric cancer are at increased risk of experiencing chronic conditions; however, little is known about the morbidity burden in this population. In this observational cohort study of commercially insured pediatric cancer survivors in the United States (2009-2014), we find that 22.5% of survivors had one chronic condition, and 36.3% had multiple. Compared with survivors without chronic conditions, the presence of multiple conditions significantly increased the odds of an emergency department visit by 70% (odds ratios [OR], 1.7; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.4-2.1) and of a hospitalization almost four-fold (OR, 3.8; 95% CI], 2.5-5.5). Findings are important for informing pediatric survivorship care plans in the years following completion of therapy.

Increased risk of mycotic infections associated with sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors: a prescription sequence symmetry analysis.

AIMS: To determine the risk of mycotic infections associated with the use of sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) in a real-world setting. METHODS: We conducted a prescription sequence symmetry analysis using data from Truven Health MarketScan (2009-2015). We selected continuously enrolled patients newly initiating both an SGLT2i and an antifungal between 1 April 2013 and 31 December 2015 within time periods of 30, 60, 90, 180 or 365 days of each other. Adjusted sequence ratios (ASR) were calculated for each time period as the ratio of patients initiating SGLT2i first over those initiating an antifungal first adjusted for time trends in prescribing. Analyses were stratified by sex and type of SGLT2i. RESULTS: There were 23 276 patients who newly initiated both SGLT2i and an antifungal in our study period. These patients were further classified into those initiating the two drugs within 365 (n = 17 504), 180 (n = 11 873), 90 (n = 7697), 60 (n = 5856) or 30 (n = 3650) days of each other. Increased risks of mycotic infections were present across all time periods, with the strongest effect observed in the 90-day interval [ASR 1.53 (confidence interval, CI 1.43-1.60)]. Findings differed by sex [90-day ASR females: 1.65 (CI 1.56-1.74); males 1.25 (CI 1.14-1.36)] and by SGLT2i [90-day ASR canagliflozin 1.57 (CI 1.49-1.66); non-canagliflozin 1.42 (CI 1.31-1.55)]. CONCLUSION: Initiation of SGLT2i was associated with an increased risk for mycotic infections. Findings from this commercially insured population in the real world are consistent with evidence available from clinical trials.