Public Health Impact and Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Routine Infant 4CMenB Vaccination in Germany to Prevent Serogroup B Invasive Meningococcal Disease.

INTRODUCTION: Invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) is an uncommon, severe, life-threatening disease primarily affecting infants, with potential lifelong sequelae. Neisseria meningitidis (Nm) serogroup B (MenB) causes most IMD cases in Germany, many of which can be prevented with four-component MenB (4CMenB) vaccination. The potential public health and economic impact of introducing routine 4CMenB infant vaccination in Germany was assessed. METHODS: A dynamic transmission-based cost-effectiveness model adapted for Germany assessed the impact of infant 4CMenB universal mass vaccination (UMV) versus no vaccination. The model included the latest real-world evidence on vaccine effectiveness, the comprehensive burden of disease on patients (sequelae) and their family (quality of life impact), comprehensive German IMD costs, and vaccination uptake assumptions. RESULTS: The largest public health impact was predicted in children: a rapid decline, 5 years after UMV implementation, of 39.9% (34.7%) for MenB (all IMD) cases aged 0-4 years and 42.4% (36.8%) in infants. Over lifetime (100-year time horizon), 4CMenB could prevent 3154 MenB (3303 all IMD) cases, 291 MenB (304 all IMD) deaths and 1370 MenB (1435 all IMD) long-term sequelae. 4CMenB saved 25,878 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), at a cost of €188,762 per QALY gained in the base case (societal perspective including lost productivity). Scenarios including potential Nm carriage protection (enabling herd protection) or societal preferences for the prevention of severe diseases led to more cost-effective results, while a scenario excluding IMD impact beyond the patient with increased discounting of vaccination health benefits produced less cost-effective results. CONCLUSIONS: MenB IMD is a vaccine-preventable disease. This analysis for Germany can inform decision-makers on the potential impact of introducing infant 4CMenB UMV. The program is predicted to rapidly produce health benefits (reduction in child cases, deaths and sequelae) at a cost per QALY to society of around €190,000 (base case), decreasing to around €78,000 when considering societal preferences and IMD underreporting.

Invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) is an uncommon but severe infection, usually presenting as meningitis and/or sepsis, caused by the bacteria Neisseria meningitidis. Most cases occur in infants, young children and adolescents. Patients who survive the disease can develop lifelong sequelae, such as physical, neurological and psychological/behavioural problems that impact their quality of life and that of their family/caregivers. This disease can be prevented by vaccination. The use of the four-component meningococcal serogroup B vaccine (4CMenB) in countries like Germany can prevent the most common form of this disease, IMD caused by serogroup B. This study assessed the public health and economic impact of infant vaccination in Germany with 4CMenB. For this, the authors used an economic model that measured the lifetime impact of the disease on patients but also on their families. The model predicted that after 5 years of vaccination, the number of cases and deaths in infants and young children aged 0­4 years would rapidly decrease by almost 40%. Over a long-term horizon of 100 years, this number was predicted to remain stable. Due to the reduced number of cases, vaccination would also result in fewer deaths and patients with sequelae, as well as cost savings for the healthcare system and society due to the reduced loss of productivity. In conclusion, in Germany, IMD caused by serogroup B is preventable through vaccination, and the 4CMenB vaccine in German infants is predicted to rapidly reduce the disease burden, save lives and prevent healthcare costs.

Long-term efficacy data for the recombinant zoster vaccine: impact on public health and cost effectiveness in Germany.

The aim of the study was to update previously published public health impact and cost-effectiveness analyses of the recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV), in the German population aged ≥50 years of age (YOA), with the latest vaccine efficacy (VE) estimates against herpes zoster (HZ). The updated estimates are derived from a long-term follow-up study. A previously published multi-cohort Markov model following age cohorts over their lifetime was used. Demographic, epidemiological, cost, and utility data were based on German specific sources. Vaccine coverage was assumed to be 40%, with a second dose compliance of 70%. The estimated VE at time 0 was 98.9% (95% C.I.: 94.0-100%) with an annual waning of 1.5% (95% CI: 0.0-3.4%) for the age group 50-69 YOA. Corresponding values were 95.4% (95% C.I.: 89.7-100%) and 2.3% (95% CI: 0.3-4.4%) for the age group ≥70 YOA. It was estimated that, over the remaining lifetime since vaccination, RZV would prevent approximately 884 thousand (K), 603 K, and 538 K HZ cases in three age cohorts 50-59, 60-69, and ≥70 YOA, respectively. The number needed to vaccinate to prevent one HZ and one postherpetic neuralgia case was 6 and 36 (50-59 YOA cohort), 6 and 34 (60-69 YOA cohort), 10 and 48 (≥70 YOA cohort). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of vaccination ranged from €26 K/quality-adjusted life year (QALY) in 60 YOA to €35 K/QALY in 70 YOA. Due to the higher, sustained, RZV VE, improved public health and cost-effectiveness results were observed compared to previous analyses.

PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARYWhat is the context?Shingles is a viral infection caused by the reactivation of the chickenpox virus. It causes a painful rash that lasts for several weeks.The incidence and severity of shingles increase with age. In Germany alone there are approximately 400,000 new cases annually.Vaccination can help prevent shingles.Previous studies, based on data collected up to four years post-vaccination, estimated the number of shingles cases prevented. What is new?Here, we use data from the same studies followed over a longer-term to update previous analyses in the German population.We found, based on data up to 8 years following vaccination, that:○ In adults 50-69 years: the vaccine initially prevents 98.9% of cases, with a reduction of 1.5% each year(for example, after one year, it would prevent 97.4% of cases).○ In adults over 70 years of age: the vaccine initially prevents 95.4% of cases, with a reduction of 2.3% each year (for example, after one year, it would prevent 93.1% of cases).○ Vaccination would reduce the number of shingles cases by 0.9 million in a cohort of adults aged 50-59 years, 0.6 million in adults 60-69 years, and 0.5 million in adults older than 70 years, over the remainder of their lifetime.What is the impact?The study provides more certainty regarding results as it is based on the most complete/up to date data. The results showed the potential of Shingrix to prevent shingles while at the same time providing good value for money.

Burden of Herpes Zoster in Adult Patients with Underlying Conditions: Analysis of German Claims Data, 2007-2018.

INTRODUCTION: Several chronic underlying conditions (UCs) are known to be risk factors for developing herpes zoster (HZ) and to increase the severity of HZ and its risk of recurrence. The aim of this study was to investigate the incidence and recurrence of HZ in adult patients with one or multiple UCs. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study based on claims data representing 13% of the statutory health insurance population from 2007 to 2018 in Germany was performed. Patients aged ≥ 18 years were included when at least one of the following UCs was diagnosed: asthma, chronic heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), coronary heart disease (CHD), depression, diabetes mellitus type 1 or 2, and rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Exact matching was used to account for differences in the distribution of age and sex between the case and matched control cohorts. Multi-morbidity was considered in sensitivity analyses by analyzing patients with only one UC. RESULTS: Patients with asthma, CHD, COPD, depression, and RA had, on average, a 30% increased risk of developing acute HZ compared to patients without any UC. RA was found to have the highest odds ratio among these conditions, varying from 1.37 to 1.57 for all age groups. Patients with depression also showed a high risk of developing HZ. Analysis of recurrence indicated that patients with at least one UC in the age groups 18-49 years and 50-59 years had the highest risk for a recurrent HZ. After experiencing a first recurrence, patients, regardless of age group, had a two- to threefold higher risk for a second recurrence. CONCLUSION: This study of representative claims data shows a higher HZ incidence and recurrence frequency in patients with UCs. These results provide relevant information for national health care guidelines and disease management programs.

Shingles is caused by the reactivation of the chickenpox virus and is characterized by a painful skin rash with blisters, commonly occurring on the trunk. Underlying conditions (UCs) are conditions that persist for a long time, require ongoing medical attention, and are rarely completely cured (chronic conditions). UCs can increase the severity, the risk, and the frequency of shingles. Here, data from a large German health care insurance provider was used to investigate whether patients with one or more UCs have a higher risk for getting shingles compared to healthy people. In particular, patients with asthma, chronic heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, coronary heart disease, depression, diabetes, and rheumatoid arthritis were investigated. The study shows that patients with asthma, coronary heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, depression, and rheumatoid arthritis have, on average, a 30% higher risk of developing shingles, regardless of their age. The risk of developing shingles two or more times is also higher for patients with at least one UC, with those aged 18­59 experiencing an even greater risk. It was found that patients with an UC are more exposed to develop shingles and that younger patients have a higher risk of a recurrent episode. The findings provide important information for the development or adaption of national health care guidelines and shingles vaccination recommendations.

Palbociclib with adjuvant endocrine therapy in early breast cancer (PALLAS): interim analysis of a multicentre, open-label, randomised, phase 3 study.

BACKGROUND: Palbociclib added to endocrine therapy improves progression-free survival in hormone-receptor-positive, HER2-negative, metastatic breast cancer. The PALLAS trial aimed to investigate whether the addition of 2 years of palbociclib to adjuvant endocrine therapy improves invasive disease-free survival over endocrine therapy alone in patients with hormone-receptor-positive, HER2-negative, early-stage breast cancer. METHODS: PALLAS is an ongoing multicentre, open-label, randomised, phase 3 study that enrolled patients at 406 cancer centres in 21 countries worldwide with stage II-III histologically confirmed hormone-receptor-positive, HER2-negative breast cancer, within 12 months of initial diagnosis. Eligible patients were aged 18 years or older with an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance score of 0 or 1. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) in permuted blocks of random size (4 or 6), stratified by anatomic stage, previous chemotherapy, age, and geographical region, by use of central telephone-based and web-based interactive response technology, to receive either 2 years of palbociclib (125 mg orally once daily on days 1-21 of a 28-day cycle) with ongoing standard provider or patient-choice adjuvant endocrine therapy (tamoxifen or aromatase inhibitor, with or without concurrent luteinising hormone-releasing hormone agonist), or endocrine therapy alone, without masking. The primary endpoint of the study was invasive disease-free survival in the intention-to-treat population. Safety was assessed in all randomly assigned patients who started palbociclib or endocrine therapy. This report presents results from the second pre-planned interim analysis triggered on Jan 9, 2020, when 67% of the total number of expected invasive disease-free survival events had been observed. The trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02513394) and EudraCT (2014-005181-30). FINDINGS: Between Sept 1, 2015, and Nov 30, 2018, 5760 patients were randomly assigned to receive palbociclib plus endocrine therapy (n=2883) or endocrine therapy alone (n=2877). At the time of the planned second interim analysis, at a median follow-up of 23·7 months (IQR 16·9-29·2), 170 of 2883 patients assigned to palbociclib plus endocrine therapy and 181 of 2877 assigned to endocrine therapy alone had invasive disease-free survival events. 3-year invasive disease-free survival was 88·2% (95% CI 85·2-90·6) for palbociclib plus endocrine therapy and 88·5% (85·8-90·7) for endocrine therapy alone (hazard ratio 0·93 [95% CI 0·76-1·15]; log-rank p=0·51). As the test statistic comparing invasive disease-free survival between groups crossed the prespecified futility boundary, the independent data monitoring committee recommended discontinuation of palbociclib in patients still receiving palbociclib and endocrine therapy. The most common grade 3-4 adverse events were neutropenia (1742 [61·3%] of 2840 patients on palbociclib and endocrine therapy vs 11 [0·3%] of 2903 on endocrine therapy alone), leucopenia (857 [30·2%] vs three [0·1%]), and fatigue (60 [2·1%] vs ten [0·3%]). Serious adverse events occurred in 351 (12·4%) of 2840 patients on palbociclib plus endocrine therapy versus 220 (7·6%) of 2903 patients on endocrine therapy alone. There were no treatment-related deaths. INTERPRETATION: At the planned second interim analysis, addition of 2 years of adjuvant palbociclib to adjuvant endocrine therapy did not improve invasive disease-free survival compared with adjuvant endocrine therapy alone. On the basis of these findings, this regimen cannot be recommended in the adjuvant setting. Long-term follow-up of the PALLAS population and correlative studies are ongoing. FUNDING: Pfizer.

Metronomic topotecan impedes tumor growth of MYCN-amplified neuroblastoma cells in vitro and in vivo by therapy induced senescence.

Poor prognosis and frequent relapses are major challenges for patients with high-risk neuroblastoma (NB), especially when tumors show MYCN amplification. High-dose chemotherapy triggers apoptosis, necrosis and senescence, a cellular stress response leading to permanent proliferative arrest and a typical senescence-associated secretome (SASP). SASP components reinforce growth-arrest and act immune-stimulatory, while others are tumor-promoting. We evaluated whether metronomic, i.e. long-term, repetitive low-dose, drug treatment induces senescence in vitro and in vivo. And importantly, by using the secretome as a discriminator for beneficial versus adverse effects of senescence, drugs with a tumor-inhibiting SASP were identified.We demonstrate that metronomic application of chemotherapeutic drugs induces therapy-induced senescence, characterized by cell cycle arrest, p21(WAF/CIP1) up-regulation and DNA double-strand breaks selectively in MYCN-amplified NB. Low-dose topotecan (TPT) was identified as an inducer of a favorable SASP while lacking NFKB1/p50 activation. In contrast, Bromo-deoxy-uridine induced senescent NB-cells secret a tumor-promoting SASP in a NFKB1/p50-dependent manner. Importantly, TPT-treated senescent tumor cells act growth-inhibitory in a dose-dependent manner on non-senescent tumor cells and MYCN expression is significantly reduced in vitro and in vivo. Furthermore, in a mouse xenotransplant-model for MYCN-amplified NB metronomic TPT leads to senescence selectively in tumor cells, complete or partial remission, prolonged survival and a favorable SASP.This new mode-of-action of metronomic TPT treatment, i.e. promoting a tumor-inhibiting type of senescence in MYCN-amplified tumors, is clinically relevant as metronomic regimens are increasingly implemented in therapy protocols of various cancer entities and are considered as a feasible maintenance treatment option with moderate adverse event profiles.