Artificial Intelligence for Real-Time Prediction of the Histology of Colorectal Polyps by General Endoscopists.

BACKGROUND: Real-time prediction of histologic features of small colorectal polyps may prevent resection and/or pathologic evaluation and therefore decrease colonoscopy costs. Previous studies showed that computer-aided diagnosis (CADx) was highly accurate, though it did not outperform expert endoscopists. OBJECTIVE: To assess the diagnostic performance of histologic predictions by general endoscopists before and after assistance from CADx in a real-life setting. DESIGN: Prospective, multicenter, single-group study. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT04437615). SETTING: 6 centers across the United States. PARTICIPANTS: 1252 consecutive patients undergoing colonoscopy and 49 general endoscopists with variable experience in real-time prediction of polyp histologic features. INTERVENTION: Real-time use of CADx during routine colonoscopy. MEASUREMENTS: The primary end points were the sensitivity and specificity of CADx-unassisted and CADx-assisted histologic predictions for adenomas measuring 5 mm or less. For clinical purposes, additional estimates according to location and confidence level were provided. RESULTS: The CADx device made a diagnosis for 2695 polyps measuring 5 mm or less (96%) in 1252 patients. There was no difference in sensitivity between the unassisted and assisted groups (90.7% vs. 90.8%; P = 0.52). Specificity was higher in the CADx-assisted group (59.5% vs. 64.7%; P < 0.001). Among all 2695 polyps measuring 5 mm or less, 88.2% and 86.1% (P < 0.001) in the CADx-assisted and unassisted groups, respectively, could be resected and discarded without pathologic evaluation. Among 743 rectosigmoid polyps measuring 5 mm or less, 49.5% and 47.9% (P < 0.001) in the CADx-assisted and unassisted groups, respectively, could be left in situ without resection. LIMITATION: Decision making based on CADx might differ outside a clinical trial. CONCLUSION: CADx assistance did not result in increased sensitivity of optical diagnosis. Despite a slight increase, the specificity of CADx-assisted diagnosis remained suboptimal. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Olympus America Corporation served as the clinical study sponsor.

Legalization of Cannabis Does Not Reduce Opioid Prescribing in Patients With Inflammatory Bowel Disease: A Difference-in-Difference Analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Cannabis may provide inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) patients with an alternative to opioids for pain. METHODS: We conducted a difference-in-difference analysis using MarketScan. Changes over time in rates of opioid prescribing were compared in states with legalized cannabis to those without. RESULTS: We identified 6,240 patients with IBD in states with legalized cannabis and 79,272 patients with IBD in states without legalized cannabis. The rate of opioid prescribing decreased over time in both groups and were not significantly different (attributed differential = 0.34, confidence interval -13.02 to 13.70, P = 0.96). DISCUSSION: Opioid prescribing decreased from 2009 to 2016 among patients with IBD in both states with legalized and state without legalized cannabis, similar to what has been observed nationally across a variety of diseases. Cannabis legalization was not associated with a lower rate of opioid prescribing for patients with IBD.

Bone health screening practices with dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry and prediction of abnormal results in pediatric inflammatory bowel disease.

OBJECTIVES: Pediatric patients diagnosed with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) are at risk of suboptimal peak bone mass attainment. This study aimed to understand rates of bone health screening adherence, describe factors associated with dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) acquisition, and identify factors associated with abnormal DXA. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study of pediatric IBD patients over a 10-year time frame. We included IBD patients (2-20 years of age) enrolled in ImproveCareNow and excluded patients with primary metabolic bone disease. Time-to-event methods and multivariable logistic regression were employed to identify factors associated with DXA acquisition and abnormal DXA. RESULTS: In 676 patients, 464 (68.63%) pediatric patients with IBD had a risk factor for low bone mineral density (BMD); 137 (29.53%) underwent an initial DXA scan. Quiescent disease was significantly associated with a reduced likelihood of DXA (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.48; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.24-0.97), while weight z-score <-2 was significantly associated with DXA performance (HR: 2.07; 95% CI: 1.08-3.98). Abnormal DXA results (BMD z-score ≤-1) occurred in 59 (35.54%) individuals. After adjusting for visit diagnosis, delayed puberty, severe disease course, 6 months or greater of steroid exposure, and history of fracture, BMI z-score <-1 (odds ratio: 5.45; 95% CI: 2.41-12.33) was associated with abnormal DXA. CONCLUSIONS: DXA screening occurred in less than one-third of eligible pediatric IBD patients. Compliance was more common in patients with a weight z-score <-2 and less common in those with quiescent disease. BMI strongly predicted abnormal DXA results when adjusting for risk factors for abnormal BMD.

Reflux and Barrett's esophagus after sleeve gastrectomy: analysis of a statewide database.

BACKGROUND: Recent studies have suggested that sleeve gastrectomy (SG) is associated with the development of Barrett esophagus (BE) even in the absence of gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) symptoms. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to assess the rates of upper endoscopy and incidence of new BE diagnoses in patients undergoing SG. SETTING: This was a claims-data study of patients who underwent SG between 2012 and 2017 while enrolled in a U.S. statewide database. METHODS: Diagnostic claims data were used to identify pre- and postoperative rates of upper endoscopy, GERD, reflux esophagitis, and BE. Time-to-event analysis using a Kaplan-Meier approach was performed to estimate the cumulative postoperative incidence of these conditions. RESULTS: We identified 5562 patients who underwent SG between 2012 and 2017. Of these, 1972 patients (35.5%) had at least 1 diagnostic record of upper endoscopy. The preoperative incidences of a diagnosis of GERD, esophagitis, and BE were 54.9%, 14.6%, and .9%, respectively. The predicted postoperative incidences of GERD, esophagitis, and BE, respectively, were 18%, 25.4%, and 1.6% at 2 years and 32.1%, 85.0%, and 6.4% at 5 years. CONCLUSIONS: In this large statewide database, rates of esophagogastroduodenoscopy remained low after SG, but the incidence of a new postoperative esophagitis or BE diagnosis in patients who underwent esophagogastroduodenoscopy was higher than in the general population. Patients undergoing SG may have a disproportionately high risk of developing reflux complications including BE after surgery.

Optimizing Endoscopy Procedure Documentation Improves Guideline-Adherent Care in Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Upper GI bleeding (UGIB) is a common indication for inpatient esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD). Guideline adherence improves post-EGD care, including appropriate medication dosing/duration and follow-up procedures that reduce UGIB-related morbidity. We aimed to optimize and standardize post-EGD documentation to improve process and clinical outcomes in UGIB-related care. METHODS: We performed a prospective quality improvement study of inpatient UGIB endoscopies at an academic tertiary referral center during 6/2019-7/2021. Guidelines were used to develop etiology/severity-specific electronic health record note templates. Participants (39 faculty/15 trainees) completed 10-min training in template content/use. We collected pre/post-intervention process data on "Minimal Standard Report" (MSR) documentation including patient disposition, diet, and medications. We also recorded documentation of re-bleed precautions and follow-up procedures. Study outcomes included guideline-based medication prescriptions, ordering of follow-up EGD, and post-discharge re-bleeding. Pre/post-intervention analysis was performed using chi-square tests. RESULTS: From a pre-intervention baseline of 199 patients to 459 patients post-intervention, compliance improved with inpatient PPI (53.4-77.9%, p < 0.001) and discharge PPI (31.3-61.0%, p < 0.001) prescriptions. There was improvement in MSR completion (28.6-42.5%, p < 0.001). Compliance improved with octreotide prescriptions (75.0-93.6%, p = 0.002) and follow-up EGD order (61.3-87.1%, p < 0.001). There was no change in post-discharge re-bleeding. 82.6% of cases used templates. CONCLUSIONS: Our project leveraged endoscopy software to standardize documentation, resulting in improved clinical care behavior and efficiency. Our intervention required low burden of maintenance, and sustainability with high utilization over 9 months. Similar endoscopy templates can be applied to other health systems and procedures to improve care.

Comparative Safety of Biologic Agents in Patients With Inflammatory Bowel Disease With Active or Recent Malignancy: A Multi-Center Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Safety of biologic agents is a key consideration in patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) and active or recent cancer. We compared the safety of tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α antagonists vs non-TNF biologics in patients with IBD with active or recent cancer. METHODS: We conducted a multicenter retrospective cohort study of patients with IBD and either active cancer (cohort A) or recent prior cancer (within ≤5 years; cohort B) who were treated with TNFα antagonists or non-TNF biologics after their cancer diagnosis. Primary outcomes were progression-free survival (cohort A) or recurrence-free survival (cohort B). Safety was compared using inverse probability of treatment weighting with propensity scores. RESULTS: In cohort A, of 125 patients (483.8 person-years of follow-up evaluation) with active cancer (age, 54 ± 15 y, 75% solid-organ malignancy), 10 of 55 (incidence rate [IR] per 100 py, 4.4) and 9 of 40 (IR, 10.4) patients treated with TNFα antagonists and non-TNF biologics had cancer progression, respectively. There was no difference in the risk of progression-free survival between TNFα antagonists vs non-TNF biologics (hazard ratio, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.25-2.30). In cohort B, of 170 patients (513 person-years of follow-up evaluation) with recent prior cancer (age, 53 ± 15 y, 84% solid-organ malignancy; duration of remission, 19 ± 19 mo), 8 of 78 (IR, 3.4) and 5 of 66 (IR 3.7) patients treated with TNFα antagonists and non-TNF biologics had cancer recurrence, respectively. The risk of recurrence-free survival was similar between both groups (hazard ratio, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.24-3.77). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with IBD with active or recent cancer, TNFα antagonists and non-TNF biologics have comparable safety. The choice of biologic should be dictated by IBD disease severity in collaboration with an oncologist.

Patient Knowledge, Risk Perception, and Barriers to Barrett's Esophagus Screening.

INTRODUCTION: Most patients with esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) do not have a previous diagnosis of Barrett's esophagus (BE), demonstrating a failure of current screening practices. An understanding of patient attitudes and barriers is essential to develop and implement interventions to improve BE screening adherence. METHODS: We conducted a Web-based survey of patients aged >50 years with chronic gastroesophageal reflux disease at 3 academic medical centers and 1 affiliated safety net health systems. Survey domains included patient characteristics, endoscopy history, familiarity with screening practices, perceived BE/EAC risk, and barriers to screening. RESULTS: We obtained a response rate of 22.6% (472/2,084) (74% men, mean age 67.9 years). Self-identified race and ethnicity of participants was 66.5% non-Hispanic White, 20.0% non-Hispanic Black, 13.4% other race, and 7.1% Hispanic. Screening for BE was recommended in only 13.2%, and only 5.3% reported previous screening. Respondents had notable gaps in knowledge about screening indications; only two-thirds correctly identified BE risk factors and only 19.5% believed BE screening was needed for gastroesophageal reflux disease. More than 1 in 5 respondents believed they would get BE (31.9%) or EAC (20.2%) but reported barriers to screening. Compared with White respondents, more Black respondents were concerned about getting BE/EAC and interested in screening but report higher barriers to screening. DISCUSSION: Patients at risk for BE, particularly racial and ethnic minorities, are worried about developing EAC but rarely undergo screening and have poor understanding of screening recommendations.

Creation of an Inflammatory Bowel Disease Referral Pathway for Identifying Patients Who Would Benefit From Inflammatory Bowel Disease Specialist Consultation.

BACKGROUND: Recommendations regarding signs and symptoms that should prompt referral of patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) to an IBD specialist for a consultation could serve to improve the quality of care for these patients. Our aim was to develop a consult care pathway consisting of clinical features related to IBD that should prompt appropriate consultation. METHODS: A scoping literature review was performed to identify clinical features that should prompt consultation with an IBD specialist. A panel of 11 experts was convened over 4 meetings to develop a consult care pathway using the RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Method. Items identified via scoping review were ranked and were divided into major and minor criteria. Additionally, a literature and panel review was conducted assessing potential barriers and facilitators to implementing the consult care pathway. RESULTS: Of 43 features assessed, 13 were included in the care pathway as major criteria and 15 were included as minor criteria. Experts agreed that stratification into major criteria and minor criteria was appropriate and that 1 major or 2 or more minor criteria should be required to consider consultation. The greatest barrier to implementation was considered to be organizational resource allocation, while endorsements by national gastroenterology and general medicine societies were considered to be the strongest facilitator. CONCLUSIONS: This novel referral care pathway identifies key criteria that could be used to triage patients with IBD who would benefit from IBD specialist consultation. Future research will be required to validate these findings and assess the impact of implementing this pathway in routine IBD-related care.

This study aimed to develop a care pathway consisting of clinical features that should prompt inflammatory bowel disease expert consultation. A scoping literature review was performed to identify attributes, and an expert panel finalized the structure and components of the pathway.

Early Anti-Tumor-Necrosis-Factor Therapy for Crohn's Disease-Related Abdominal Abscesses and Phlegmon in Children.

BACKGROUND: Internally penetrating Crohn's Disease complications, including abscesses and phlegmon, represent a high-risk Crohn's Disease phenotype. Anti-tumor-necrosis-factor-α (Anti-TNF) therapies are effective in treating penetrating Crohn's Disease and early initiation has shown unique benefits. However, timing of anti-TNF initiation in the setting of internally penetrating Crohn's Disease complications is typically heterogenous due to concern over precipitating serious infections. Recent studies demonstrate such an association may not exist. AIMS: We aimed to describe the multidisciplinary management of pediatric patients with internally penetrating Crohn's Disease complications, focusing on the utilization and timing of anti-TNF therapy relative to complication resolution and adverse events. METHODS: We performed a single-center retrospective cohort study of pediatric patients with internally penetrating Crohn's Disease complications from 2007 to 2021. The safety and effectiveness of anti-TNF therapy initiation prior to complication resolution was assessed by comparing rates of infectious and Crohn's Disease-related adverse events between those who received anti-TNF therapy prior to complication resolution, versus those who did not. RESULTS: Twenty-one patients with internally penetrating Crohn's Disease complications were identified. 7/21 received anti-TNF therapy prior to complication resolution. Infectious adverse events within 90 days of complication occurred in 0/7 patients initiating anti-TNF therapy prior to complication resolution and 10/14 patients who did not (p = 0.004). Crohn's Disease-related surgeries and hospitalizations within 1 year of complication occurred in 12/20 patients, with similar frequency between groups. CONCLUSIONS: Initiating anti-TNF therapy prior to internally penetrating Crohn's Disease complication resolution may be a safe and effective strategy to improve clinical outcomes.

Prognostic Impact of the Presence of Barrett's Esophagus and Intestinal Metaplasia on Esophageal Adenocarcinoma Survival.

Background/Aims: Barrett's esophagus (BE), defined by the presence of intestinal metaplasia (IM) on histology, is thought to be the only identifiable precursor lesion for esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). Recent studies have suggested the possibility of an alternate, non-IM associated EAC that is a more aggressive form of EAC with worse survival. Among EAC patients, we aimed to compare survival of patients with and without IM at the time of diagnosis. Methods: This was a retrospective cohort study of all patients with histologic confirmed EAC evaluated at a tertiary care center from 2013 to 2019. Cases were categorized according to the presence or absence of IM on histologic specimens (Group I-IM-EAC and Group II-non-IM-EAC). We compared demographic characteristics, clinical stage, therapy, and survival between the 2 groups using the Chi-square and ANOVA tests (for categorical and continuous variables, respectively). We used Cox proportional hazards regression to determine the association of IM with overall survival, adjusting for sex, age at diagnosis, tumor location, histologic grade, and clinical stage. Results: A total of 475 patients were included in this analysis (mean age 64.8 years [SD 10.8], 89% white) and 109 (23.0%) had no evidence of IM. Compared with IM-EAC (Group I), individuals in the non-IM-EAC group were younger (P = .01) and had a greater proportion of patients diagnosed with advanced disease (49.5 vs 20.2% for stage 4, P < .001). These patients were less likely to undergo endoscopic therapy alone (0.92% vs 29.78%, P < .001) or surgery alone (0 vs 9.84%, P = .001). On multivariable analysis, the presence of IM-EAC was associated with improved overall survival compared to non-IM-EAC (HR 0.69, 95% CI 0.49-0.96). Additional factors associated with poor survival was increasing stage of diagnosis (HR 6.49: 95% CI 3.77-11.15 for stage 4, HR 2.19: 95% CI 1.25-3.84 for stage 3, HR 2.04: 95% CI 0.98-4.25 for stage 2 compared to stage 1) and more advanced histologic stage (HR 2.00, 95% CI 1.26-3.19) for poorly/undifferentiated compared to well differentiated). Conclusions: EAC without the presence of IM on histology was associated with worse survival compared to those with IM. Future prospective studies with detailed molecular sequencing are required to clarify if 2 separate phenotypes of EAC exist (IM-EAC and non-IM-EAC). If confirmed, this may have significant implications for screening and management strategies.

Leveraging electronic medical record functionality to capture adenoma detection rate.

Measuring the adenoma detection rate (ADR) is critical to providing quality care, however it is also challenging. We aimed to develop a tool using pre-existing electronic health record (EHR) functions to accurately and easily measure total ADR and to provide real-time feedback for endoscopists. We utilized the Epic EHR. With the help of an Epic analyst, using existing tools, we developed a method by which endoscopy staff could mark whether an adenoma was detected for a given colonoscopy. Using these responses and all colonoscopies performed by the endoscopist recorded in the EHR, ADR was calculated in a report and displayed to endoscopists within the EHR. One endoscopist piloted the tool, and results of the tool were validated against a manual chart review. Over the pilot period the endoscopist performed 145 colonoscopies, of which 78 had adenomas. The tool correctly identified 76/78 colonoscopies with an adenoma and 67/67 of colonoscopies with no adenomas (97.4% sensitivity, 100% specificity, 98% accuracy). There was no difference in ADR as determined by the tool compared to manual review (53.1% vs. 53.8%, p = 0.912). We successfully developed and pilot tested a tool to measure ADR using existing EHR functionality.

A Novel Approach toward Less Invasive Multiomics Gut Analyses: a Pilot Study.

Newer 'omics approaches, such as metatranscriptomics and metabolomics, allow functional assessments of the interaction(s) between the gut microbiome and the human host. However, in order to generate meaningful data with these approaches, the method of sample collection is critical. Prior studies have relied on expensive and invasive means toward sample acquisition, such as intestinal biopsy, while other studies have relied on easier methods of collection, such as fecal samples that do not necessarily represent those microbes in contact with the host. In this pilot study, we attempt to characterize a novel, minimally invasive method toward sampling the human microbiome using mucosal cytology brush sampling compared to intestinal gut biopsy samples on 5 healthy participants undergoing routine screening colonoscopy. We compared metatranscriptomic analyses between the two collection methods and identified increased taxonomic evenness and beta diversity in the cytology brush samples and similar community transcriptional profiles between the two methods. Metabolomics assessment demonstrated striking differences between the two methods, implying a difference in bacterial-derived versus human-absorbed metabolites. Put together, this study supports the use of microbiome sampling with cytology brushes, but caution must be exercised when performing metabolomics assessment, as this represents differential metabolite production but not absorption by the host. IMPORTANCE In order to generate meaningful metabolomic and microbiome data, the method of sample collection is critical. This study utilizes and compares two methods for intestinal tissue collection for evaluation of metabolites and microbiomes, finding that using a brush to sample the microbiome provides valuable data. However, for metabolomics assessment, biopsy samples may still be required.

Comparative Effectiveness of Surveillance Colonoscopy Intervals on Colorectal Cancer Outcomes in a National Cohort of Patients with Inflammatory Bowel Disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Surveillance colonoscopy is recommended to reduce colorectal cancer (CRC)-related morbidity and mortality in patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). The comparative effectiveness of varying colonoscopy intervals on CRC outcomes among patients with IBD is unknown. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients with confirmed CRC within a cohort of 77,824 patients with IBD during 2000 to 2015 in the National Veterans Health Administration. We examined the association between colonoscopy surveillance intervals on CRC stage, treatment, or all-cause and cancer-specific mortality. The interval of colonoscopy prior to CRC diagnosis was categorized as those performed within <1 year, 1 to 3 years, 3 to 5 years, or none within 5 years. RESULTS: Among 566 patients with CRC-IBD, most (69.4%) did not have colonoscopy within 5 years prior to CRC diagnosis, whereas 9.7% had colonoscopy within 1 year prior to diagnosis, 17.7% within 1 to 3 years, and 3.1% between 3 and 5 years. Compared with no surveillance, colonoscopy within 1 year (adjusted odds ratio, 0.40; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.20-0.82), and 1 to 3 years (adjusted odds ratio, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.32-0.98) were less likely to be diagnosed at late stage. Regardless of IBD type and duration, colonoscopy within 1 year was associated with a lower all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.36-0.88). CONCLUSIONS: In a national cohort of patients with CRC-IBD, colonoscopy within 3 years prior to CRC diagnosis was associated with early tumor stage at diagnosis, and colonoscopy within 1 year was associated with a reduced all-cause mortality compared with no colonoscopy. Our findings support colonoscopy intervals of 1 to 3 years in patients with IBD to reduce late-stage CRC and all-cause mortality.

Delays Related to Prior Authorization in Inflammatory Bowel Disease.

BACKGROUND: Delays in advancing to biologic therapies are associated with adverse outcomes in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Insurer-mandated prior authorizations have been linked to prolonged medication initiation times. We hypothesized that prior authorizations are associated with prolonged biologic initiation time and increased IBD-related healthcare utilization among children with IBD. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study of 190 pediatric patients with IBD initiating biologics at a tertiary care hospital to measure the association between prior authorization, biologic initiation time (physician recommendation to first dose), and healthcare utilization (hospitalization, surgery, or emergency department visit). Demographic, insurance, and disease severity-related covariables were collected. Multivariable linear regression was used to measure the association between prior authorization and biologic initiation time. Propensity score methods were used to measure the associations between prior authorization and IBD-related healthcare utilization within 180 days and corticosteroid dependence at 90 days, with adjustment for insurance type, demographics, and disease severity-related characteristics. RESULTS: Median biologic initiation time was 21 days. Prior authorization and complicated prior authorizations (requiring appeal, step therapy, or peer-to-peer review) were associated with 10.2-day (95% confidence interval [CI] 8.2 to 12.3) and 24.6-day (95% CI 16.4 to 32.8) increases in biologic initiation time, respectively. Prior authorizations increased the likelihood of IBD-related healthcare utilization within 180 days by 12.9% (95% CI 2.5 to 23.4) and corticosteroid dependence at 90 days by 14.1% (95% CI 3.3 to 24.8). CONCLUSIONS: Prior authorizations are associated with prolonged biologic initiation time and increased IBD-related healthcare utilization. Minimizing prior authorization-related delays may expedite biologic delivery and reduce the risk of IBD-related healthcare utilization.

Cost-Effectiveness of a Risk-Tailored Pancreatic Cancer Early Detection Strategy Among Patients With New-Onset Diabetes.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Screening for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) in asymptomatic adults is not recommended, however, patients with new-onset diabetes (NoD) have an 8 times higher risk of PDAC than expected. A novel risk-tailored early detection strategy targeting high-risk NoD patients might improve PDAC prognosis. We sought to evaluate the cost effectiveness of this strategy. METHODS: We compared PDAC early detection strategies targeting NoD individuals age 50 years and older at various minimal predicted PDAC risk thresholds vs standard of care in a Markov state-transition decision model under the health care sector perspective using a lifetime horizon. RESULTS: At a willingness to pay (WTP) threshold of $150,000 per quality-adjusted life-year, the early detection strategy targeting patients with a minimum predicted 3-year PDAC risk of 1% was cost effective (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, $116,911). At a WTP threshold of $100,000 per quality-adjusted life-year, the early detection strategy at the 2% risk threshold was cost effective (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, $63,045). The proportion of PDACs detected at local stage, costs of treatment for metastatic PDAC, utilities of local and regional cancers, and sensitivity of screening were the most influential parameters. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis confirmed that at a WTP threshold of $150,000, early detection at the 1.0% risk threshold was favored (30.6%), followed by the 0.5% risk threshold (20.4%) vs standard of care (1.7%). At a WTP threshold of $100,000, early detection at the 1.0% risk threshold was favored (27.3%) followed by the 2.0% risk threshold (22.8%) vs standard of care (2.0%). CONCLUSIONS: A risk-tailored PDAC early detection strategy targeting NoD patients with a minimum predicted 3-year PDAC risk of 1.0% to 2.0% may be cost effective.