Game-theoretic agent-based modelling of micro-level conflict: Evidence from the ISIS-Kurdish war.

This article delves into the dynamics of a dyadic political violence case study in Rojava, Northern Syria, focusing on the conflict between Kurdish rebels and ISIS from January 1, 2017, to December 31, 2019. We employ agent-based modelling and a formalisation of the conflict as an Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma game. The study provides a nuanced understanding of conflict dynamics in a highly volatile region, focusing on microdynamics of an intense dyadic strategic interaction between two near-equally- powered actors. The choice of using a model based on the Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma, though a classical approach, offers substantial insights due to its ability to model dyadic, equally-matched strategic interactions in conflict scenarios effectively. The investigation primarily reveals that shifts in territorial control are more critical than geographical or temporal factors in determining the conflict's course. Further, the study observes that the conflict is characterised by periods of predominantly one-sided violence. This pattern underscores that the distribution of attacks, and target choices are a more telling indicator of the conflict nature than specific behavioural patterns of the actors involved. Such a conclusion aligns with the strategic implications of the underlying model, which emphasises the outcome of interactions based on differing aggression levels. This research not only sheds light on the conflict in Rojava but also reaffirms the relevance of this type of game-theoretical approach in contemporary conflict analysis.

Cause of Concussion With Persisting Symptoms Is Associated With Long-Term Recovery and Symptom Type, Duration, and Number in a Longitudinal Cohort of 600 Patients.

It is important for patients and clinicians to know the potential for recovery from concussion as soon as possible after injury, especially in patients who do not recover completely in the first month and have concussion with persisting concussion symptoms (C+PCS). We assessed the association between the causes of concussion and recovery from C+PCS in a consecutive retrospective and prospective cohort of 600 patients referred to the Canadian Concussion Center (CCC) at Toronto Western Hospital. Data were obtained from clinical records and follow-up questionnaires and not from a standardized database. A novel method was used to assess long-term recovery, and multi-variable Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess relationships between cause of concussion and time to recovery. We examined the subsequent recovery of patients who had not recovered after at least one month from the time of concussion. Patients were grouped into the following four causes: sports and recreation (S&R, n = 312, 52%); motor vehicle collisions (MVC, n = 103, 17%); falls (n = 100, 17%); and being struck by an object including violence (SBOV, n = 85, 14%). The MVC group had the highest percentage of females (75.7%), the oldest participants (median: 40.0 [interquartile range (IQR):30.5-49.0] years), the most symptoms (median:11.0 [IQR:8.5-15.0]), and the longest symptom duration (median: 28.0 [IQR:12.0-56.00] months). In contrast, the S&R group had the highest percentage of males (58.1%), the youngest participants (median:20.0 [IQR:17.0-30.0] years), the best recovery outcome, and shortest symptom duration (median:22.0 [IQR:8.0-49.5] months). Significant differences among the four causes included age (p < 0.001), sex (p < 0.001), number of previous concussions (p < 0.001), history of psychiatric disorders (p = 0.002), and migraine (p = 0.001). Recovery from concussion was categorized into three groups: (1) Complete Recovery occurred in only 60 (10%) patients with median time 8.0 (IQR:3.5-18.0) months and included 42 S&R, 7 MVC, 8 falls, and 3 SBOV; (2) Incomplete Recovery occurred in 408 (68.0%) patients with persisting median symptom time of 5.0 (IQR:2.0-12.0) months; and (3) Unknown Recovery occurred in 132 (22.0%) patients and was because of lack of follow-up. In summary, the cause of C+PCS was associated with the type, number, and duration of symptoms and time required for recovery, although all causes of C+PCS produced prolonged symptoms in a large percentage of patients, which emphasizes the importance of concussions as a public health concern necessitating improved prevention and treatment strategies.

Unusual combinations of neurodegenerative pathologies with chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE) complicates clinical prediction of CTE.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE) has gained widespread attention due to its association with multiple concussions and contact sports. However, CTE remains a postmortem diagnosis, and the link between clinical symptoms and CTE pathology is poorly understood. This study aimed to investigate the presence of copathologies and their impact on symptoms in former contact sports athletes. METHODS: This was a retrospective case series design of 12 consecutive cases of former contact sports athletes referred for autopsy. Analyses are descriptive and include clinical history as well as the pathological findings of the autopsied brains. RESULTS: All participants had a history of multiple concussions, and all but one had documented progressive cognitive, psychiatric, and/or motor symptoms. The results showed that 11 of the 12 participants had evidence of CTE in the brain, but also other copathologies, including different combinations of tauopathies, and other rare entities. CONCLUSIONS: The heterogeneity of symptoms after repetitive head injuries and the diverse pathological combinations accompanying CTE complicate the prediction of CTE in clinical practice. It is prudent to consider the possibility of multiple copathologies when clinically assessing patients with repetitive head injuries, especially as they age, and attributing neurological or cognitive symptoms solely to presumptive CTE in elderly patients should be discouraged.

Characterizing the profiles of patients with acute concussion versus prolonged post-concussion symptoms in Ontario.

Identifying vulnerability factors for developing persisting concussion symptoms is imperative for determining which patients may require specialized treatment. Using cross-sectional questionnaire data from an Ontario-wide observational concussion study, we compared patients with acute concussion (≤ 14 days) and prolonged post-concussion symptoms (PPCS) (≥ 90 days) on four factors of interest: sex, history of mental health disorders, history of headaches/migraines, and past concussions. Differences in profile between the two groups were also explored. 110 patients with acute concussion and 96 patients with PPCS were included in our study. The groups did not differ on the four factors of interest. Interestingly, both groups had greater proportions of females (acute concussion: 61.1% F; PPCS: 66.3% F). Patient profiles, however, differed wherein patients with PPCS were significantly older, more symptomatic, more likely to have been injured in a transportation-related incident, and more likely to live outside a Metropolitan city. These novel risk factors for persisting concussion symptoms require replication and highlight the need to re-evaluate previously identified risk factors as more and more concussions occur in non-athletes and different risk factors may be at play.

Strangulation as an Acquired Brain Injury in Intimate-Partner Violence and Its Relationship to Cognitive and Psychological Functioning: A Preliminary Study.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this work was to examine the relationship between strangulation-related alterations in consciousness (AIC) and cognitive and psychological outcomes in women who have experienced intimate partner violence (IPV). SETTING: Participants were recruited from a variety of settings, including women's shelters and support programs. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 99 women were enrolled in the study. After applying exclusion criteria for factors that could mask or confound the effects of strangulation, 52 women remained for analyses. DESIGN: Cross-sectional, retrospective. MAIN MEASURES: We used several cognitive measures to assess learning, long-term and working memory, visuomotor speed, cognitive flexibility, and nonverbal cognitive fluency as well as several psychological measures to assess posttraumatic stress symptomatology, general distress, worry, anhedonic depression, and anxious arousal. We also used the Brain Injury Severity Assessment interview to examine the association between strangulation-related AICs and these measures of cognitive and psychological functioning. RESULTS: Women who had experienced strangulation-related AICs performed more poorly on a test of long-term memory (P < .03) and had higher levels of depression (P < .03) and posttraumatic stress symptomatology (P < .02) than women who had not experienced strangulation-related AIC. When controlling for potential confounding variables, including number of IPV-related traumatic brain injuries, women who had experienced strangulation also performed more poorly on a measure of working memory. CONCLUSION: This is the first report to assess strangulation in this manner and demonstrate links to cognitive and psychological functioning. These preliminary data contribute to our knowledge of strangulation and its effects on women who have experienced IPV.

Treatment of Adult ADHD without Stimulants: Effectiveness in A Dually Diagnosed Correctional Population.

Adult ADHD has received increased attention in the past two decades. There is a complex relationship between ADHD and substance use disorders, with ADHD being a risk factor for and a moderator in the treatment of addiction. ADHD is also a risk factor for the development of antisocial personality disorder. As a result, ADHD is prevalent in a correctional dually diagnosed population. This retrospective chart review reports on the effectiveness of the treatment for ADHD in a population with substance use disorders, residing in a correctional community center for treatment and reintegration purposes. Only patients with a primary diagnosis of ADHD were included and only nonstimulants were used. After an average of four visits, or approximately four months, patient showed a moderate response with a pretreatment to posttreatment effect size of 1.4. Sixty-four percent of patients responded and 35% remitted, according to the Clinical Global Index Severity Scale as the primary outcome measure. While stimulants are considered the first-line treatment for ADHD, they clearly present challenges in certain populations, especially in patients with significant antisocial and addiction histories. It does appear that non-stimulants are effective in this population. It is speculated that the response and remission rate could be improved by adding ADHD specific psychosocial interventions.

Stressful life events and posttraumatic growth among police officers: A cross-sectional study.

Police officers often continue to face numerous threats and stressors in the aftermath of a disaster. To date, posttraumatic growth (PTG) has been studied primarily in the context of significant trauma; thus, it is not known whether stressful life events are associated with PTG. This study investigated the development of PTG among 113 police officers working in the New Orleans area following Hurricane Katrina. Hierarchical regression was used to evaluate if gratitude, social support, and satisfaction with life moderated the relationship between stressful life events (as measured by the total life stress score) and PTG, after adjustment for age, sex, race, level of involvement in Hurricane Katrina, and alcohol intake. Results indicate that stressful life events are independently associated with PTG. Gratitude, satisfaction with life, and social support were seen to moderate this relationship; as stressful life events increased so too did PTG-particularly among officers with higher levels of gratitude (B = 0.002, p ≤ .05), satisfaction with life (B = 0.002, p ≤ .05), and social support (B = 0.001, p ≤ .05). These findings suggest that promoting satisfaction with life, interpersonal support, and gratitude may be beneficial to those who are regularly at risk of trauma exposure.