Predicting Colonic Neoplasia Surgical Complications: A Machine Learning Approach.

BACKGROUND: A range of statistical approaches have been used to help predict outcomes associated with colectomy. The multifactorial nature of complications suggests that machine learning algorithms may be more accurate in determining postoperative outcomes by detecting nonlinear associations, which are not readily measured by traditional statistics. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to investigate the utility of machine learning algorithms to predict complications in patients undergoing colectomy for colonic neoplasia. DESIGN: Retrospective analysis using decision tree, random forest, and artificial neural network classifiers to predict postoperative outcomes. SETTINGS: National Inpatient Sample database (2003-2017). PATIENTS: Adult patients who underwent elective colectomy with anastomosis for neoplasia. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Performance was quantified using sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve to predict the incidence of anastomotic leak, prolonged length of stay, and inpatient mortality. RESULTS: A total of 14,935 patients (4731 laparoscopic, 10,204 open) were included. They had an average age of 67 ± 12.2 years, and 53% of patients were women. The 3 machine learning models successfully identified patients who developed the measured complications. Although differences between model performances were largely insignificant, the neural network scored highest for most outcomes: predicting anastomotic leak, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.88/0.93 (open/laparoscopic, 95% CI, 0.73-0.92/0.80-0.96); prolonged length of stay, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.84/0.88 (open/laparoscopic, 95% CI, 0.82-0.85/0.85-0.91); and inpatient mortality, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.90/0.92 (open/laparoscopic, 95% CI, 0.85-0.96/0.86-0.98). LIMITATIONS: The patients from the National Inpatient Sample database may not be an accurate sample of the population of all patients undergoing colectomy for colonic neoplasia and does not account for specific institutional and patient factors. CONCLUSIONS: Machine learning predicted postoperative complications in patients with colonic neoplasia undergoing colectomy with good performance. Although validation using external data and optimization of data quality will be required, these machine learning tools show great promise in assisting surgeons with risk-stratification of perioperative care to improve postoperative outcomes. See Video Abstract . PREDICCIN DE LAS COMPLICACIONES QUIRRGICAS DE LA NEOPLASIA DE COLON UN ENFOQUE DE MODELO DE APRENDIZAJE AUTOMTICO: ANTECEDENTES:Se han utilizado una variedad de enfoques estadísticos para ayudar a predecir los resultados asociados con la colectomía. La naturaleza multifactorial de las complicaciones sugiere que los algoritmos de aprendizaje automático pueden ser más precisos en determinar los resultados posoperatorios al detectar asociaciones no lineales, que generalmente no se miden en las estadísticas tradicionales.OBJETIVO:El objetivo de este estudio fue investigar la utilidad de los algoritmos de aprendizaje automático para predecir complicaciones en pacientes sometidos a colectomía por neoplasia de colon.DISEÑO:Análisis retrospectivo utilizando clasificadores de árboles de decisión, bosques aleatorios y redes neuronales artificiales para predecir los resultados posoperatorios.AJUSTE:Base de datos de la Muestra Nacional de Pacientes Hospitalizados (2003-2017).PACIENTES:Pacientes adultos sometidos a colectomía electiva con anastomosis por neoplasia.INTERVENCIONES:N/A.PRINCIPALES MEDIDAS DE RESULTADO:El rendimiento se cuantificó utilizando la sensibilidad, especificidad, precisión y la característica operativa del receptor del área bajo la curva para predecir la incidencia de fuga anastomótica, duración prolongada de la estancia hospitalaria y mortalidad de los pacientes hospitalizados.RESULTADOS:Se incluyeron un total de 14.935 pacientes (4.731 laparoscópicos, 10.204 abiertos). Presentaron una edad promedio de 67 ± 12,2 años y el 53% eran mujeres. Los tres modelos de aprendizaje automático identificaron con éxito a los pacientes que desarrollaron las complicaciones medidas. Aunque las diferencias entre el rendimiento del modelo fueron en gran medida insignificantes, la red neuronal obtuvo la puntuación más alta para la mayoría de los resultados: predicción de fuga anastomótica, característica operativa del receptor del área bajo la curva 0,88/0,93 (abierta/laparoscópica, IC del 95%: 0,73-0,92/0,80-0,96); duración prolongada de la estancia hospitalaria, característica operativa del receptor del área bajo la curva 0,84/0,88 (abierta/laparoscópica, IC del 95%: 0,82-0,85/0,85-0,91); y mortalidad de pacientes hospitalizados, característica operativa del receptor del área bajo la curva 0,90/0,92 (abierto/laparoscópico, IC del 95%: 0,85-0,96/0,86-0,98).LIMITACIONES:Los pacientes de la base de datos de la Muestra Nacional de Pacientes Hospitalizados pueden no ser una muestra precisa de la población de todos los pacientes sometidos a colectomía por neoplasia de colon y no tienen en cuenta factores institucionales y específicos del paciente.CONCLUSIONES:El aprendizaje automático predijo con buen rendimiento las complicaciones postoperatorias en pacientes con neoplasia de colon sometidos a colectomía. Aunque será necesaria la validación mediante datos externos y la optimización de la calidad de los datos, estas herramientas de aprendizaje automático son muy prometedoras para ayudar a los cirujanos con la estratificación de riesgos de la atención perioperatoria para mejorar los resultados posoperatorios. (Traducción-Dr. Fidel Ruiz Healy ).

Predicting Acute Brain Injury in Venoarterial Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation Patients with Tree-Based Machine Learning: Analysis of the Extracorporeal Life Support Organization Registry.

Objective: To determine if machine learning (ML) can predict acute brain injury (ABI) and identify modifiable risk factors for ABI in venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA-ECMO) patients. Design: Retrospective cohort study of the Extracorporeal Life Support Organization (ELSO) Registry (2009-2021). Setting: International, multicenter registry study of 676 ECMO centers. Patients: Adults (≥18 years) supported with VA-ECMO or extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation (ECPR). Interventions: None. Measurements and Main Results: Our primary outcome was ABI: central nervous system (CNS) ischemia, intracranial hemorrhage (ICH), brain death, and seizures. We utilized Random Forest, CatBoost, LightGBM and XGBoost ML algorithms (10-fold leave-one-out cross-validation) to predict and identify features most important for ABI. We extracted 65 total features: demographics, pre-ECMO/on-ECMO laboratory values, and pre-ECMO/on-ECMO settings.Of 35,855 VA-ECMO (non-ECPR) patients (median age=57.8 years, 66% male), 7.7% (n=2,769) experienced ABI. In VA-ECMO (non-ECPR), the area under the receiver-operator characteristics curves (AUC-ROC) to predict ABI, CNS ischemia, and ICH was 0.67, 0.67, and 0.62, respectively. The true positive, true negative, false positive, false negative, positive, and negative predictive values were 33%, 88%, 12%, 67%, 18%, and 94%, respectively for ABI. Longer ECMO duration, higher 24h ECMO pump flow, and higher on-ECMO PaO2 were associated with ABI.Of 10,775 ECPR patients (median age=57.1 years, 68% male), 16.5% (n=1,787) experienced ABI. The AUC-ROC for ABI, CNS ischemia, and ICH was 0.72, 0.73, and 0.69, respectively. The true positive, true negative, false positive, false negative, positive, and negative predictive values were 61%, 70%, 30%, 39%, 29% and 90%, respectively, for ABI. Longer ECMO duration, younger age, and higher 24h ECMO pump flow were associated with ABI. Conclusions: This is the largest study predicting neurological complications on sufficiently powered international ECMO cohorts. Longer ECMO duration and higher 24h pump flow were associated with ABI in both non-ECPR and ECPR VA-ECMO.

Utilizing Machine Learning to Predict Neurological Injury in Venovenous Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation Patients: An Extracorporeal Life Support Organization Registry Analysis.

Background: Venovenous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VV-ECMO) is associated with acute brain injury (ABI), including central nervous system (CNS) ischemia (defined as ischemic stroke or hypoxic-ischemic brain injury) and intracranial hemorrhage (ICH). There is limited data on prediction models for ABI and neurological outcomes in VV-ECMO. Research Question: Can machine learning (ML) accurately predict ABI and identify modifiable factors of ABI in VV-ECMO? Study Design and Methods: We analyzed adult (≥18 years) VV-ECMO patients in the Extracorporeal Life Support Organization Registry (2009-2021) from 676 centers. ABI was defined as CNS ischemia, ICH, brain death, and seizures. Overall, 65 total variables were extracted including clinical characteristics and pre-ECMO and on-ECMO variables. Random Forest, CatBoost, LightGBM, and XGBoost ML algorithms (10-fold leave-one-out cross-validation) were used to predict ABI. Feature Importance Scores were used to pinpoint variables most important for predicting ABI. Results: Of 37,473 VV-ECMO patients (median age=48.1 years, 63% male), 2,644 (7.1%) experienced ABI: 610 (2%) and 1,591 (4%) experienced CNS ischemia and ICH, respectively. The median ECMO duration was 10 days (interquartile range=5-20 days). The area under the receiver-operating characteristics curves to predict ABI, CNS ischemia, and ICH were 0.67, 0.63, and 0.70, respectively. The accuracy, positive predictive, and negative predictive values for ABI were 79%, 15%, and 95%, respectively. ML identified pre-ECMO cardiac arrest as the most important risk factor for ABI while ECMO duration and bridge to transplantation as an indication for ECMO were associated with lower risk of ABI. Interpretation: This is the first study to use machine learning to predict ABI in a large cohort of VV-ECMO patients. Performance was sub-optimal due to the low reported prevalence of ABI with lack of standardization of neuromonitoring/imaging protocols and data granularity in the ELSO Registry. Standardized neurological monitoring and imaging protocols may improve machine learning performance to predict ABI.

Augmenting Traditional Cardiac and Medical Care in Africa via Telemedicine: A Pilot Study.

Background A critical decrease in the number of healthcare providers in developing countries is one of the major burdens to healthcare access in these countries. Many factors contribute to the lack of healthcare providers, including low doctor-to-population ratio, emigration of doctors to other countries, long travel distances to hospitals, increasing cost of healthcare, and concentration of doctors in urban cities. Several measures have been taken by both governmental and nongovernmental organizations in these countries to mitigate this crisis with varying outcomes. In this study, we investigate the use of technology in the form of telemedicine in a developing country. We evaluate patient predisposition to the use of telemedicine, their experience, and some challenges involved in the use of telemedicine in this setting. Methodology We set up an electronic medical record system, OpenMRS, and added telemedicine modules to the system. Then, we recruited doctors and gave them privileges on OpenMRS after carefully vetting their credentials. Finally, we set up a website through which patients could request telemedicine consultations. We registered a telephone number in Nigeria so that patients could also request consultations via SMS. Consult requests were then entered into OpenMRS. Doctors logged in periodically and checked for patients awaiting consults. They called patients, diagnosed them, requested further diagnostics, and/or sent prescriptions to patients via SMS directly from OpenMRS. Results Data were collected over the first year of telemedicine service in Nigeria. These data were then analyzed to understand the effectiveness, patient experience, cost efficiency, and general utilization of this service. In the first year, there were 510 new patient registrations and 572 total consultations. Patient age ranged from less than one year to 77 years, with a median of 29 years. Among the users of the service, 51.8% (264) were female. For consult requests, 52.2% of requests were via the web, and others were via SMS requests. There were over 50 reviews of the service on the website and social media, and 95% of users reported a positive experience. Conclusions From preliminary data, telemedicine can potentially be a good adjunct to help doctors reach their patients, especially in rural areas where there is an immense shortage of healthcare professions. Although most patients reported a positive experience, further investigations are needed to validate our experience.