Cost-effectiveness and public health impact of typhoid conjugate vaccine introduction strategies in Bangladesh.

PURPOSE: Typhoid fever causes substantial morbidity and mortality in Bangladesh. The government of Bangladesh plans to introduce typhoid conjugate vaccines (TCV) in its expanded program on immunization (EPI) schedule. However, the optimal introduction strategy in addition to the costs and benefits of such a program are unclear. METHODS: We extended an existing mathematical model of typhoid transmission to integrate cost data, clinical incidence data, and recently conducted serosurveys in urban, semi-urban, and rural areas. In our primary analysis, we evaluated the status quo (i.e., no vaccination) and eight vaccine introduction strategies including routine and 1-time campaign strategies, which differed by age groups targeted and geographic focus. Model outcomes included clinical incidence, seroincidence, deaths, costs, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for each strategy. We adopted a societal perspective, 10-year model time horizon, and 3 % annual discount rate. We performed probabilistic, one-way, and scenario sensitivity analyses including adopting a healthcare perspective and alternate model time horizons. RESULTS: We projected that all TCV strategies would be cost saving compared to the status quo. The preferred strategy was a nationwide introduction of TCV at 9-12 months of age with a single catch-up campaign for children ages 1-15, which was cost saving compared to all other strategies and the status quo. In the 10 years following implementation, we projected this strategy would avert 3.77 million cases (95 % CrI: 2.60 - 5.18), 11.31 thousand deaths (95 % CrI: 3.77 - 23.60), and save $172.35 million (95 % CrI: -14.29 - 460.59) compared to the status quo. Our findings were broadly robust to changes in parameter values and willingness-to-pay thresholds. CONCLUSIONS: We projected that nationwide TCV introduction with a catch-up campaign would substantially reduce typhoid incidence and very likely be cost saving in Bangladesh.

Seroepidemiology for Enteric Fever: Emerging Approaches and Opportunities.

Safe and effective typhoid conjugate vaccines (TCVs) are available, but many countries lack the high-resolution data needed to prioritize TCV introduction to the highest-risk communities. Here we discuss seroepidemiology-an approach using antibody response data to characterize infection burden-as a potential tool to fill this data gap. Serologic tests for typhoid have existed for over a hundred years, but only recently were antigens identified that were sensitive and specific enough to use as epidemiologic markers. These antigens, coupled with new methodological developments, permit estimating seroincidence-the rate at which new infections occur in a population-from cross-sectional serosurveys. These new tools open up many possible applications for enteric fever seroepidemiology, including generating high-resolution surveillance data, monitoring vaccine impact, and integrating with other serosurveillance initiatives. Challenges remain, including distinguishing Salmonella Typhi from Salmonella Paratyphi infections and accounting for reinfections. Enteric fever seroepidemiology can be conducted at a fraction of the cost, time, and sample size of surveillance blood culture studies and may enable more efficient and scalable surveillance for this important infectious disease.

Seroincidence of Enteric Fever, Juba, South Sudan.

We applied a new serosurveillance tool to estimate typhoidal Salmonella burden using samples collected during 2020 from a population in Juba, South Sudan. By using dried blood spot testing, we found an enteric fever seroincidence rate of 30/100 person-years and cumulative incidence of 74% over a 4-year period.

Estimating typhoid incidence from community-based serosurveys: a multicohort study.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of enteric fever, an invasive bacterial infection caused by typhoidal Salmonellae (Salmonella enterica serovars Typhi and Paratyphi), is largely unknown in regions without blood culture surveillance. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether new diagnostic serological markers for typhoidal Salmonella can reliably estimate population-level incidence. METHODS: We collected longitudinal blood samples from patients with blood culture-confirmed enteric fever enrolled from surveillance studies in Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, and Ghana between 2016 and 2021 and conducted cross-sectional serosurveys in the catchment areas of each surveillance site. We used ELISAs to measure quantitative IgA and IgG antibody responses to hemolysin E and S Typhi lipopolysaccharide. We used Bayesian hierarchical models to fit two-phase power-function decay models to the longitudinal antibody responses among enteric fever cases and used the joint distributions of the peak antibody titres and decay rate to estimate population-level incidence rates from cross-sectional serosurveys. FINDINGS: The longitudinal antibody kinetics for all antigen-isotypes were similar across countries and did not vary by clinical severity. The seroincidence of typhoidal Salmonella infection among children younger than 5 years ranged between 58·5 per 100 person-years (95% CI 42·1-81·4) in Dhaka, Bangladesh, to 6·6 per 100 person-years (4·3-9·9) in Kavrepalanchok, Nepal, and followed the same rank order as clinical incidence estimates. INTERPRETATION: The approach described here has the potential to expand the geographical scope of typhoidal Salmonella surveillance and generate incidence estimates that are comparable across geographical regions and time. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. TRANSLATIONS: For the Nepali, Bengali and Urdu translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

The international and intercontinental spread and expansion of antimicrobial-resistant Salmonella Typhi: a genomic epidemiology study.

BACKGROUND: The emergence of increasingly antimicrobial-resistant Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi (S Typhi) threatens to undermine effective treatment and control. Understanding where antimicrobial resistance in S Typhi is emerging and spreading is crucial towards formulating effective control strategies. METHODS: In this genomic epidemiology study, we sequenced the genomes of 3489 S Typhi strains isolated from prospective enteric fever surveillance studies in Nepal, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and India (between 2014 and 2019), and combined these with a global collection of 4169 S Typhi genome sequences isolated between 1905 and 2018 to investigate the temporal and geographical patterns of emergence and spread of antimicrobial-resistant S Typhi. We performed non-parametric phylodynamic analyses to characterise changes in the effective population size of fluoroquinolone-resistant, extensively drug-resistant (XDR), and azithromycin-resistant S Typhi over time. We inferred timed phylogenies for the major S Typhi sublineages and used ancestral state reconstruction methods to estimate the frequency and timing of international and intercontinental transfers. FINDINGS: Our analysis revealed a declining trend of multidrug resistant typhoid in south Asia, except for Pakistan, where XDR S Typhi emerged in 2016 and rapidly replaced less-resistant strains. Mutations in the quinolone-resistance determining region (QRDR) of S Typhi have independently arisen and propagated on at least 94 occasions, nearly all occurring in south Asia. Strains with multiple QRDR mutations, including triple mutants with high-level fluoroquinolone resistance, have been increasing in frequency and displacing strains with fewer mutations. Strains containing acrB mutations, conferring azithromycin resistance, emerged in Bangladesh around 2013 and effective population size of these strains has been steadily increasing. We found evidence of frequent international (n=138) and intercontinental transfers (n=59) of antimicrobial-resistant S Typhi, followed by local expansion and replacement of drug-susceptible clades. INTERPRETATION: Independent acquisition of plasmids and homoplastic mutations conferring antimicrobial resistance have occurred repeatedly in multiple lineages of S Typhi, predominantly arising in south Asia before spreading to other regions. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Incidence of typhoid and paratyphoid fever in Bangladesh, Nepal, and Pakistan: results of the Surveillance for Enteric Fever in Asia Project.

BACKGROUND: Precise enteric fever disease burden data are needed to inform prevention and control measures, including the use of newly available typhoid vaccines. We established the Surveillance for Enteric Fever in Asia Project (SEAP) to inform these strategies. METHODS: From September, 2016, to September, 2019, we conducted prospective clinical surveillance for Salmonella enterica serotype Typhi (S Typhi) and Paratyphi (S Paratyphi) A, B, and C at health facilities in predetermined catchment areas in Dhaka, Bangladesh; Kathmandu and Kavrepalanchok, Nepal; and Karachi, Pakistan. Patients eligible for inclusion were outpatients with 3 or more consecutive days of fever in the last 7 days; inpatients with suspected or confirmed enteric fever; patients with blood culture-confirmed enteric fever from the hospital laboratories not captured by inpatient or outpatient enrolment and cases from the laboratory network; and patients with non-traumatic ileal perforation under surgical care. We used a hybrid surveillance model, pairing facility-based blood culture surveillance with community surveys of health-care use. Blood cultures were performed for enrolled patients. We calculated overall and age-specific typhoid and paratyphoid incidence estimates for each study site. Adjusted estimates accounted for the sensitivity of blood culture, the proportion of eligible individuals who consented and provided blood, the probability of care-seeking at a study facility, and the influence of wealth and education on care-seeking. We additionally calculated incidence of hospitalisation due to typhoid and paratyphoid. FINDINGS: A total of 34 747 patients were enrolled across 23 facilitates (six tertiary hospitals, surgical wards of two additional hospitals, and 15 laboratory network sites) during the study period. Of the 34 303 blood cultures performed on enrolled patients, 8705 (26%) were positive for typhoidal Salmonella. Adjusted incidence rates of enteric fever considered patients in the six tertiary hospitals. Adjusted incidence of S Typhi, expressed per 100 000 person-years, was 913 (95% CI 765-1095) in Dhaka. In Nepal, the adjusted typhoid incidence rates were 330 (230-480) in Kathmandu and 268 (202-362) in Kavrepalanchok. In Pakistan, the adjusted incidence rates per hospital site were 176 (144-216) and 103 (85-126). The adjusted incidence rates of paratyphoid (of which all included cases were due to S Paratyphi A) were 128 (107-154) in Bangladesh, 46 (34-62) and 81 (56-118) in the Nepal sites, and 23 (19-29) and 1 (1-1) in the Pakistan sites. Adjusted incidence of hospitalisation was high across sites, and overall, 2804 (32%) of 8705 patients with blood culture-confirmed enteric fever were hospitalised. INTERPRETATION: Across diverse communities in three south Asian countries, adjusted incidence exceeded the threshold for "high burden" of enteric fever (100 per 100 000 person-years). Incidence was highest among children, although age patterns differed across sites. The substantial disease burden identified highlights the need for control measures, including improvements to water and sanitation infrastructure and the implementation of typhoid vaccines. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Influences on catch-up growth using relative versus absolute metrics: evidence from the MAL-ED cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Poor growth in early childhood has been considered irreversible after 2-3 years of age and has been associated with morbidity and mortality over the short-term and with poor economic and cognitive outcomes over the long-term. The MAL-ED cohort study was performed in eight low-income settings with the goal of evaluating relationships between the child's environment and experience (dietary, illness, and pathogen exposure, among others) and their growth and development. The goal of this analysis is to determine whether there are differences in the factors associated with growth from 24 to 60 months using two different metrics. METHODS: Across six MAL-ED sites, 942 children had anthropometry data at 24 and 60 months, as well as information about socioeconomic status, maternal height, gut permeability (lactulose-mannitol z-score (LMZ)), dietary intake from 9 to 24 months, and micronutrient status. Anthropometric changes were in height- or weight-for-age z-score (HAZ, WAZ), their absolute difference from the growth standard median (HAD (cm), WAD (kg)), as well as recovery from stunting/underweight. Outcomes were modeled using multivariate regression. RESULTS: At 24 months, almost half of the cohort was stunted (45%) and 21% were underweight. Among those who were stunted at 24 months (n = 426), 185 (43%) were no longer stunted at 60 months. Most children increased their HAZ from 24 to 60 months (81%), whereas fewer (33%) had positive changes in their HAD. Linear regression models indicate that girls improved less than boys from 24 to 60 months (HAZ: -0.21 (95% CI -0.27, -0.15); HAD: -0.75 (-1.07, -0.43)). Greater intestinal permeability (higher LMZ) at 0-24 months was associated with lower relative and absolute changes from 24 to 60 months (HAZ: -0.10 (-0.16, -0.04); HAD: -0.47 (-0.73, -0.21)). Maternal height (per 10 cm) was positively associated with changes (HAZ: 0.09 (0.03, 0.15); HAD: 0.45 (0.15, 0.75)). Similar relationships were identified for changes in WAZ and WAD. CONCLUSIONS: The study children demonstrated improved growth from 24 to 60 months of age, but only a subset had positive changes in HAD and WAD. The same environmental factors were associated with growth from 24 to 60 months regardless of metric used (change in HAZ or HAD, or WAZ and WAD).

Early Life Experiences and Trajectories of Cognitive Development.

BACKGROUND: Multiple factors constrain the trajectories of child cognitive development, but the drivers that differentiate the trajectories are unknown. We examine how multiple early life experiences differentiate patterns of cognitive development over the first 5 years of life in low-and middle-income settings. METHODS: Cognitive development of 835 children from the Etiology, Risk Factors, and Interactions of Enteric Infections and Malnutrition and the Consequences for Child Health and Development (MAL-ED) multisite observational cohort study was assessed at 6, 15, 24 (Bayley Scales of Infant and Toddler Development), and 60 months (Wechsler Preschool and Primary Scale of Intelligence). Markers of socioeconomic status, infection, illness, dietary intake and status, anthropometry, and maternal factors were also assessed. Trajectories of development were determined by latent class-mixed models, and factors associated with class membership were examined by discriminant analysis. RESULTS: Five trajectory groups of cognitive development are described. The variables that best discriminated between trajectories included presence of stimulating and learning resources in the home, emotional or verbal responsivity of caregiver and the safety of the home environment (especially at 24 and 60 months), proportion of days (0-24 months) for which the child had diarrhea, acute lower respiratory infection, fever or vomiting, maternal reasoning ability, mean nutrient densities of zinc and phytate, and total energy from complementary foods (9-24 months). CONCLUSIONS: A supporting and nurturing environment was the variable most strongly differentiating the most and least preferable trajectories of cognitive development. In addition, a higher quality diet promoted cognitive development while prolonged illness was indicative of less favorable patterns of development.

A Race against Time: Reduced Azithromycin Susceptibility in Salmonella enterica Serovar Typhi in Pakistan.

Antimicrobial resistance is an ongoing issue in the treatment of typhoid fever. Resistance to first-line antimicrobials and extensively drug resistant (XDR) Salmonella Typhi isolates in Pakistan have left azithromycin as the only remaining effective oral treatment. Here, we report the emergence of organisms with a single point mutation in acrB gene, implicated in azithromycin resistance, in a S. Typhi isolate from Pakistan. The isolation of this organism is worrisome and highlights the significance of the introduction of typhoid conjugate vaccine in South Asia.IMPORTANCE The emergence of XDR Salmonella Typhi in Pakistan has left azithromycin as the only viable oral treatment option. Here, we report the detection of an azithromycin resistance-associated mutation in one S. Typhi isolate. This finding is important because any possible spread of azithromycin resistance in S. Typhi isolates would make it nearly impossible to treat in outpatient settings due to the need of injectable antibiotics. Our findings also signify the importance of introduction of typhoid conjugate vaccine in regions of endemicity such as Pakistan.

Correction: Impact of early-onset persistent stunting on cognitive development at 5 years of age: Results from a multi-country cohort study.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0227839.].

Impact of early-onset persistent stunting on cognitive development at 5 years of age: Results from a multi-country cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Globally more than 150 million children under age 5 years were stunted in 2018, primarily in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), and the impact of early-onset, persistent stunting has not been well explored. To explore the association between early-onset persistent stunting in children and cognitive development at 5 years of age, and to identify the factors associated with early-onset stunting. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Children from the MAL-ED cohort study were followed from birth to 5 years of age in six LMICs. The Wechsler Preschool Primary Scales of Intelligence (WPPSI) was used to assess cognitive abilities (fluid reasoning) at 5 years and was adapted for each culture. Stunting was categorized as early-onset persistent (first stunted at 1-6 months and persisting at 60 months), early-onset recovered (first stunted at 1-6 months and not stunted at 60 months), late-onset persistent (first stunted at 7-24 months and persisting at 60 months), late-onset recovered (first stunted at 7-24 months and not stunted at 60 months), and never (never stunted). Mixed effects linear models were used to estimate the relationship between stunting status and cognitive development. Children with early-onset persistent stunting had significantly lower cognitive scores (-2.10 (95% CI: -3.85, -0.35)) compared with those who were never stunted. Transferrin receptor (TfR) was also negatively associated with cognitive development (-0.31 (95% CI: -0.49, -0.13)), while the HOME inventory, an index of quality of the home environment (0.46 (95% CI: 0.21, 0.72)) and socio-economic status (1.50 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.98)) were positively associated with cognitive development. CONCLUSIONS: Early-onset persistent stunting was associated with lower cognitive development in children at 5 years of age in this cohort of children.

Early childhood development and stunting: Findings from the MAL-ED birth cohort study in Bangladesh.

Information on the association between stunting and child development is limited from low-income settings including Bangladesh where 36% of children under- 5 are stunted. This study aimed to explore differences in early childhood development (ECD) between stunted (length-for-age z-score [LAZ] < -2) and nonstunted (LAZ ≥ -2) children in Bangladesh. Children (n = 265) aged 6-24 months who participated in the MAL-ED birth cohort study were evaluated by trained psychologists at 6, 15, and 24 months of age using the Bayley Scales of Infant and Toddler Development-III; child length and weight were measured using standard procedures. ECD scores (z-scores derived from cognitive, motor, language and socio-emotional skills) were compared between stunted, underweight (weight-for-age z-score < -2), and wasted (weight-for-length z-score < -2) children, controlling for child age and sex and maternal age, education, body mass index (BMI), and depressive symptoms. Stunted children had significantly lower ECD scores than their nonstunted peers on cognitive (P = .049), motor (P < .001), language (P < .001) and social-emotional (P = .038) scales where boys had significantly lower fine motor skills compared with girls (P = .027). Mother's schooling and BMI were significant predictors of ECD. Similar to stunting, underweight children had developmental deficits in all domains (cognitive: P = .001; fine motor: P = .039, and P < .001 for both gross motor and total motor; expressive communication: P = .032; total language: P = .013; social-emotional development: P = .017). Wasted children had poor motor skills (P = .006 for the fine motor; P < .001 for both gross motor and total motor development) compared with the nonwasted peers. Early childhood stunting and underweight were associated with poor developmental outcomes in Bangladesh.

Intestinal permeability and inflammation mediate the association between nutrient density of complementary foods and biochemical measures of micronutrient status in young children: results from the MAL-ED study.

BACKGROUND: Environmental enteric dysfunction (EED) is thought to increase the risk of micronutrient deficiencies, but few studies adjust for dietary intakes and systemic inflammation. OBJECTIVE: We tested whether EED is associated with micronutrient deficiency risk independent of diet and systemic inflammation, and whether it mediates the relation between intake and micronutrient status. METHODS: Using data from 1283 children in the MAL-ED (Etiology, Risk Factors, and Interactions of Enteric Infections and Malnutrition and the Consequences for Child Health) birth cohort we evaluated the risk of anemia, low retinol, zinc, and ferritin, and high transferrin receptor (TfR) at 15 mo. We characterized gut inflammation and permeability by myeloperoxidase (MPO), neopterin (NEO), and α-1-antitrypsin (AAT) concentrations from asymptomatic fecal samples averaged from 9 to 15 mo, and averaged the lactulose:mannitol ratio z-score (LMZ) at 9 and 15 mo. Nutrient intakes from complementary foods were quantified monthly from 9 to 15 mo and densities were averaged for analyses. α-1-Acid glycoprotein at 15 mo characterized systemic inflammation. Relations between variables were modeled using a Bayesian network. RESULTS: A greater risk of anemia was associated with LMZ [1.15 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.31)] and MPO [1.16 (1.01, 1.34)]. A greater risk of low ferritin was associated with AAT [1.19 (1.03, 1.37)] and NEO [1.22 (1.04, 1.44)]. A greater risk of low retinol was associated with LMZ [1.24 (1.08, 1.45)]. However, MPO was associated with a lower risk of high transferrin receptor [0.86 (0.74, 0.98)], NEO with a lower risk of low retinol [0.75 (0.62, 0.89)], and AAT with a lower risk of low plasma zinc [0.83 (0.70, 0.99)]. Greater nutrient intake densities (vitamins A and B6, calcium, protein, and zinc) were negatively associated with EED. Inverse associations between nutrient densities and micronutrient deficiency largely disappeared after adjustment for EED, suggesting that EED mediates these associations. CONCLUSIONS: EED is independently associated with an increased risk of low ferritin, low retinol, and anemia. Greater nutrient density from complementary foods may reduce EED, and the control of micronutrient deficiencies may require control of EED.

Early Life Child Micronutrient Status, Maternal Reasoning, and a Nurturing Household Environment have Persistent Influences on Child Cognitive Development at Age 5 years: Results from MAL-ED.

BACKGROUND: Child cognitive development is influenced by early-life insults and protective factors. To what extent these factors have a long-term legacy on child development and hence fulfillment of cognitive potential is unknown. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to examine the relation between early-life factors (birth to 2 y) and cognitive development at 5 y. METHODS: Observational follow-up visits were made of children at 5 y, previously enrolled in the community-based MAL-ED longitudinal cohort. The burden of enteropathogens, prevalence of illness, complementary diet intake, micronutrient status, and household and maternal factors from birth to 2 y were extensively measured and their relation with the Wechsler Preschool Primary Scales of Intelligence at 5 y was examined through use of linear regression. RESULTS: Cognitive T-scores from 813 of 1198 (68%) children were examined and 5 variables had significant associations in multivariable models: mean child plasma transferrin receptor concentration (ß: -1.81, 95% CI: -2.75, -0.86), number of years of maternal education (ß: 0.27, 95% CI: 0.08, 0.45), maternal cognitive reasoning score (ß: 0.09, 95% CI: 0.03, 0.15), household assets score (ß: 0.64, 95% CI: 0.24, 1.04), and HOME child cleanliness factor (ß: 0.60, 95% CI: 0.05, 1.15). In multivariable models, the mean rate of enteropathogen detections, burden of illness, and complementary food intakes between birth and 2 y were not significantly related to 5-y cognition. CONCLUSIONS: A nurturing home context in terms of a healthy/clean environment and household wealth, provision of adequate micronutrients, maternal education, and cognitive reasoning have a strong and persistent influence on child cognitive development. Efforts addressing aspects of poverty around micronutrient status, nurturing caregiving, and enabling home environments are likely to have lasting positive impacts on child cognitive development.

Enteric dysfunction and other factors associated with attained size at 5 years: MAL-ED birth cohort study findings.

BACKGROUND: Poor growth in early childhood has been associated with increased risk of mortality and morbidity, as well as long-term deficits in cognitive development and economic productivity. OBJECTIVES: Data from the MAL-ED cohort study were used to identify factors in the first 2 y of life that are associated with height-for-age, weight-for-age, and body mass index z-scores (HAZ, WAZ, BMIZ) at 5 y of age. METHODS: A total of 1017 children were followed from near birth until 5 y of age at sites in Bangladesh, Brazil, India, Nepal, Peru, South Africa, and Tanzania. Data were collected on their growth, environmental enteric dysfunction (EED), micronutrient status, enteric pathogen burden, illness prevalence, dietary intake, and various other socio-economic and environmental factors. RESULTS: EED biomarkers were related to size at 5 y. Mean lactulose:mannitol z-scores during the first 2 y of life were negatively associated with all of the growth measures (HAZ: -0.11 [95% CI: -0.19, -0.03]; WAZ: -0.16 [95% CI: -0.26, -0.06]; BMIZ: -0.11 [95% CI: -0.23, 0.0]). Myeloperoxidase was negatively associated with weight (WAZ: -0.52 [95% CI: -0.78, -0.26] and BMIZ: -0.56 [95% CI: -0.86, -0.26]); whereas α-1-antitrypsin had a negative association with HAZ (-0.28 [95% CI: -0.52, -0.04]). Transferrin receptor was positively related to HAZ (0.18 [95% CI: 0.06, 0.30]) and WAZ (0.21 [95% CI: 0.07, 0.35]). Hemoglobin was positively related to HAZ (0.06 [95% CI: 0.00, 0.12]), and ferritin was negatively related to HAZ (-0.08 [95% CI: -0.12, -0.04]). Bacterial density in stool was negatively associated with HAZ (-0.04 [95% CI: -0.08, 0.00]), but illness symptoms did not have any effect on size at 5 y. CONCLUSIONS: EED markers, bacterial density, and iron markers are associated with growth at 5 y of age. Interventions to reduce bacterial burden and EED may improve long-term growth in low-income settings.

Population-level mathematical modeling of antimicrobial resistance: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Mathematical transmission models are increasingly used to guide public health interventions for infectious diseases, particularly in the context of emerging pathogens; however, the contribution of modeling to the growing issue of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) remains unclear. Here, we systematically evaluate publications on population-level transmission models of AMR over a recent period (2006-2016) to gauge the state of research and identify gaps warranting further work. METHODS: We performed a systematic literature search of relevant databases to identify transmission studies of AMR in viral, bacterial, and parasitic disease systems. We analyzed the temporal, geographic, and subject matter trends, described the predominant medical and behavioral interventions studied, and identified central findings relating to key pathogens. RESULTS: We identified 273 modeling studies; the majority of which (> 70%) focused on 5 infectious diseases (human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), influenza virus, Plasmodium falciparum (malaria), Mycobacterium tuberculosis (TB), and methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA)). AMR studies of influenza and nosocomial pathogens were mainly set in industrialized nations, while HIV, TB, and malaria studies were heavily skewed towards developing countries. The majority of articles focused on AMR exclusively in humans (89%), either in community (58%) or healthcare (27%) settings. Model systems were largely compartmental (76%) and deterministic (66%). Only 43% of models were calibrated against epidemiological data, and few were validated against out-of-sample datasets (14%). The interventions considered were primarily the impact of different drug regimens, hygiene and infection control measures, screening, and diagnostics, while few studies addressed de novo resistance, vaccination strategies, economic, or behavioral changes to reduce antibiotic use in humans and animals. CONCLUSIONS: The AMR modeling literature concentrates on disease systems where resistance has been long-established, while few studies pro-actively address recent rise in resistance in new pathogens or explore upstream strategies to reduce overall antibiotic consumption. Notable gaps include research on emerging resistance in Enterobacteriaceae and Neisseria gonorrhoeae; AMR transmission at the animal-human interface, particularly in agricultural and veterinary settings; transmission between hospitals and the community; the role of environmental factors in AMR transmission; and the potential of vaccines to combat AMR.

Oral polio vaccine response in the MAL-ED birth cohort study: Considerations for polio eradication strategies.

BACKGROUND: Immunization programs have leveraged decades of research to maximize oral polio vaccine (OPV) response. Moving toward global poliovirus eradication, the WHO recommended phased OPV-to-IPV replacement on schedules in 2012. Using the MAL-ED prospective birth cohort data, we evaluated the influence of early life exposures impacting OPV immunization by measuring OPV response for serotypes 1 and 3. METHODS: Polio neutralizing antibody assays were conducted at 7 and 15 months of age for serotypes 1 and 3. Analyses were conducted on children receiving ≥3 OPV doses (n = 1449). History of vaccination, feeding patterns, physical growth, home environment, diarrhea, enteropathogen detection, and gut inflammation were examined as risk factors for non-response [Log2(titer) < 3] and Log2(titer) by serotype using multivariate regression. FINDINGS: Serotype 1 seroconversion was significantly higher than serotype 3 (96.6% vs. 89.6%, 15 months). Model results indicate serotypes 1 and 3 failure was minimized following four and six OPV doses, respectively; however, enteropathogen detection and poor socioeconomic conditions attenuated response in both serotypes. At three months of age, bacterial detection in stool reduced serotype 1 and 3 Log2 titers by 0.34 (95% CI 0.14-0.54) and 0.53 (95% CI 0.29-0.77), respectively, and increased odds of serotype 3 failure by 3.0 (95% CI 1.6-5.8). Our socioeconomic index, consisting of Water, Assets, Maternal education, and Income (WAMI), was associated with a 0.79 (95% CI 0.15-1.43) and 1.23 (95% CI 0.34-2.12) higher serotype 1 and 3 Log2 titer, respectively, and a 0.04 (95% CI 0.002-0.40) lower odds of serotype 3 failure. Introduction of solids, transferrin receptor, and underweight were differentially associated with serotype response. Other factors, including diarrheal frequency and breastfeeding practices, were not associated with OPV response. INTERPRETATION: Under real-world conditions, improved vaccination coverage and socio-environmental conditions, and reducing early life bacterial exposures are key to improving OPV response and should inform polio eradication strategies.

Assessing development across cultures: Invariance of the Bayley-III Scales Across Seven International MAL-ED sites.

The Bayley's Scales of Infant and Toddler Development-Third Edition (Bayley-III) were used to measure the development of 24-month-old children (N = 1,452) in the Interactions of Malnutrition and Enteric Infections: Consequences for Child Health and Development (MAL-ED) study (an international, multisite study on many aspects of child development). This study examined the factor structure and measurement equivalence/invariance of Bayley-III scores across 7 international research sites located in Bangladesh, Brazil, India, Nepal, Pakistan, Peru, and South Africa. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses were used to identify the factor structure of Bayley-III scores. Subsequently, reliability analyses and item response theory analyses were applied, and invariance was examined using multiple-indicator, multiple-cause modeling. The findings supported the validity, but not invariance, of Bayley-III language scores at all seven sites and of the cognitive and motor scores at six sites. These findings provide support for the use of scores for research purposes, but mean comparison between sites is not recommended. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Temporal Variability of Escherichia coli Diversity in the Gastrointestinal Tracts of Tanzanian Children with and without Exposure to Antibiotics.

The stability of the Escherichia coli populations in the human gastrointestinal tract is not fully appreciated, and represents a significant knowledge gap regarding gastrointestinal community structure, as well as resistance to incoming pathogenic bacterial species and antibiotic treatment. The current study examines the genomic content of 240 Escherichia coli isolates from 30 children, aged 2 to 35 months old, in Tanzania. The E. coli strains were isolated from three time points spanning a six-month time period, with and without antibiotic treatment. The resulting isolates were sequenced, and the genomes compared. The findings in this study highlight the transient nature of E. coli strains in the gastrointestinal tract of these children, as during a six-month interval, no one individual contained phylogenomically related isolates at all three time points. While the majority of the isolates at any one time point were phylogenomically similar, most individuals did not contain phylogenomically similar isolates at more than two time points. Examination of global genome content, canonical E. coli virulence factors, multilocus sequence type, serotype, and antimicrobial resistance genes identified diversity even among phylogenomically similar strains. There was no apparent increase in the antimicrobial resistance gene content after antibiotic treatment. The examination of the E. coli from longitudinal samples from multiple children in Tanzania provides insight into the genomic diversity and population variability of resident E. coli within the rapidly changing environment of the gastrointestinal tract of these children.IMPORTANCE This study increases the number of resident Escherichia coli genome sequences, and explores E. coli diversity through longitudinal sampling. We investigate the genomes of E. coli isolated from human gastrointestinal tracts as part of an antibiotic treatment program among rural Tanzanian children. Phylogenomics demonstrates that resident E. coli are diverse, even within a single host. Though the E. coli isolates of the gastrointestinal community tend to be phylogenomically similar at a given time, they differed across the interrogated time points, demonstrating the variability of the members of the E. coli community in these subjects. Exposure to antibiotic treatment did not have an apparent impact on the E. coli community or the presence of resistance and virulence genes within E. coli genomes. The findings of this study highlight the variable nature of specific bacterial members of the human gastrointestinal tract.

Use of quantitative molecular diagnostic methods to investigate the effect of enteropathogen infections on linear growth in children in low-resource settings: longitudinal analysis of results from the MAL-ED cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Enteropathogen infections in early childhood not only cause diarrhoea but contribute to poor growth. We used molecular diagnostics to assess whether particular enteropathogens were associated with linear growth across seven low-resource settings. METHODS: We used quantitative PCR to detect 29 enteropathogens in diarrhoeal and non-diarrhoeal stools collected from children in the first 2 years of life obtained during the Etiology, Risk Factors, and Interactions of Enteric Infections and Malnutrition and the Consequences for Child Health and Development (MAL-ED) multisite cohort study. Length was measured monthly. We estimated associations between aetiology-specific diarrhoea and subclinical enteropathogen infection and quantity and attained length in 3 month intervals, at age 2 and 5 years, and used a longitudinal model to account for temporality and time-dependent confounding. FINDINGS: Among 1469 children who completed 2 year follow-up, 35 622 stool samples were tested and yielded valid results. Diarrhoeal episodes attributed to bacteria and parasites, but not viruses, were associated with small decreases in length after 3 months and at age 2 years. Substantial decrements in length at 2 years were associated with subclinical, non-diarrhoeal, infection with Shigella (length-for-age Z score [LAZ] reduction -0·14, 95% CI -0·27 to -0·01), enteroaggregative Escherichia coli (-0·21, -0·37 to -0·05), Campylobacter (-0·17, -0·32 to -0·01), and Giardia (-0·17, -0·30 to -0·05). Norovirus, Cryptosporidium, typical enteropathogenic E coli, and Enterocytozoon bieneusi were also associated with small decrements in LAZ. Shigella and E bieneusi were associated with the largest decreases in LAZ per log increase in quantity per g of stool (-0·13 LAZ, 95% CI -0·22 to -0·03 for Shigella; -0·14, -0·26 to -0·02 for E bieneusi). Based on these models, interventions that successfully decrease exposure to Shigella, enteroaggregative E coli, Campylobacter, and Giardia could increase mean length of children by 0·12-0·37 LAZ (0·4-1·2 cm) at the MAL-ED sites. INTERPRETATION: Subclinical infection and quantity of pathogens, particularly Shigella, enteroaggregative E coli, Campylobacter, and Giardia, had a substantial negative association with linear growth, which was sustained during the first 2 years of life, and in some cases, to 5 years. Successfully reducing exposure to certain pathogens might reduce global stunting. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.