Prediabetes as a risk factor for all-cause and cause-specific mortality: a prospective analysis of 115,919 adults without diabetes in Mexico City.

BACKGROUND: Prediabetes has been associated with increased all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. However, no large-scale studies have been conducted in Mexico or Latin America examining these associations. METHODS: We analyzed data from 115,919 adults without diabetes (diagnosed or undiagnosed) aged 35-84 years who participated in the Mexico City Prospective Study between 1998 and 2004. Participants were followed until January 1st, 2021 for cause-specific mortality. We defined prediabetes according to the American Diabetes Association (ADA, HbA1c 5.7% to 6.4%) and the International Expert Committee (IEC, HbA1c 6.0-6.4%) definitions. Cox regression adjusted for confounders was used to estimate all-cause and cause-specific mortality rate ratios (RR) at ages 35-74 years associated with prediabetes. FINDINGS: During 2,085,392 person-years of follow-up (median in survivors 19 years), there were 6,810 deaths at ages 35-74, including 1,742 from cardiovascular disease, 892 from renal disease and 108 from acute diabetic crises. Of 110,405 participants aged 35-74 years at recruitment, 28,852 (26%) had ADA-defined prediabetes and 7,203 (7%) had IEC-defined prediabetes. Compared with those without prediabetes, individuals with prediabetes had higher risk of all-cause mortality at ages 35-74 years (RR 1.13, 95% CI 1.07-1.19 for ADA-defined prediabetes and RR 1.28, 1.18-1.39 for IEC-defined prediabetes), as well as increased risk of cardiovascular mortality (RR 1.22 [1.10-1.35] and 1.42 [1.22-1.65], respectively), renal mortality (RR 1.35 [1.08-1.68] and 1.69 [1.24-2.31], respectively), and death from an acute diabetic crisis (RR 2.63 [1.76-3.94] and 3.43 [2.09-5.62], respectively). RRs were larger at younger than at older ages, and similar for men compared to women. The absolute excess risk associated with ADA and IEC-defined prediabetes at ages 35-74 accounted for6% and 3% of cardiovascular deaths respectively, 10% and 5% of renal deaths respectively, and 31% and 14% of acute diabetic deaths respectively. INTERPRETATION: Prediabetes is a significant risk factor for all-cause, cardiovascular, renal, and acute diabetic deaths in Mexican adults. Identification and timely management of individuals with prediabetes for targeted risk reduction could contribute to reducing premature mortality from cardiometabolic causes in this population. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, the Mexican Health Ministry, the National Council of Science and Technology for Mexico, Cancer Research UK, British Heart Foundation, UK Medical Research Council. Instituto Nacional de Geriatría (Mexico City).

Diabetes subgroups and sociodemographic inequalities in Mexico: a cross-sectional analysis of nationally representative surveys from 2016 to 2022.

Background: Differences in the prevalence of four diabetes subgroups have been reported in Mexico compared to other populations, but factors that may contribute to these differences are poorly understood. Here, we estimate the prevalence of diabetes subgroups in Mexico and evaluate their correlates with indicators of social disadvantage using data from national representative surveys. Methods: We analyzed serial, cross-sectional Mexican National Health and Nutrition Surveys spanning 2016, 2018, 2020, 2021, and 2022, including 23,354 adults (>20 years). Diabetes subgroups (obesity-related [MOD], severe insulin-deficient [SIDD], severe insulin-resistant [SIRD], and age-related [MARD]) were classified using self-normalizing neural networks based on a previously validated algorithm. We used the density-independent social lag index (DISLI) as a proxy of state-level social disadvantage. Findings: We identified 4204 adults (median age: 57, IQR: 47-66, women: 64%) living with diabetes, yielding a pooled prevalence of 16.04% [95% CI: 14.92-17.17]. When stratified by diabetes subgroup, prevalence was 6.62% (5.69-7.55) for SIDD, 5.25% (4.52-5.97) for MOD, 2.39% (1.95-2.83) for MARD, and 1.27% (1.00-1.54) for SIRD. SIDD and MOD clustered in Southern Mexico, whereas MARD and SIRD clustered in Northern Mexico and Mexico City. Each standard deviation increase in DISLI was associated with higher odds of SIDD (OR: 1.12, 95% CI: 1.06-1.12) and lower odds of MOD (OR: 0.93, 0.88-0.99). Speaking an indigenous language was associated with higher odds of SIDD (OR: 1.35, 1.16-1.57) and lower odds of MARD (OR 0.58, 0.45-0.74). Interpretation: Diabetes prevalence in Mexico is rising in the context of regional and sociodemographic inequalities across distinct diabetes subgroups. SIDD is a subgroup of concern that may be associated with inadequate diabetes management, mainly in marginalized states. Funding: This research was supported by Instituto Nacional de Geriatría in Mexico.

Insulin resistance potentiates the effect of remnant cholesterol on cardiovascular mortality in individuals without diabetes.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Remnant cholesterol (RC) and insulin resistance (IR) have been independently associated with cardiovascular risk. Here, we evaluated the role of IR and RC on cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. METHODS: We conducted an analysis of 16,113 individuals ≥20 years without diabetes from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES-III/IV). RC levels were calculated using total cholesterol, non-HDL-c, and LDL-c; IR was defined as HOMA2-IR≥2.5 and CVD mortality as a composite of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular mortality. Multiple linear regression was used to assess the relationship between HOMA2-IR and RC and Cox regression models to assess their joint role in CVD mortality. Causally ordered mediation models were used to explore the mediating role of IR in RC-associated CVD mortality. RESULTS: We identified an association between higher HOMA2-IR and higher RC levels. The effect of IR on CVD mortality was predominant (HR 1.32, 95%CI 1.18-1.48) and decreased at older ages (HR 0.934, 95%CI 0.918-0.959) compared to RC (HR 0.983, 95%CI 0.952-1.014). Higher risk of CVD mortality was observed in individuals with IR but normal RC (HR 1.37, 95%CI 1.25-1.50) and subjects with IR and high RC (HR 1.24, 95%CI 1.13-1.37), but not in subjects without IR but high RC. In mediation models, HOMA2-IR accounted for 78.2% (95%CI 28.11-98.89) of the effect of RC levels on CVD mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that RC potentiates the risk of CVD mortality through its effect on whole-body insulin sensitivity, particularly among younger individuals.

Multiple cardiovascular risk factor care in 55 low- and middle-income countries: A cross-sectional analysis of nationally-representative, individual-level data from 280,783 adults.

The prevalence of multiple age-related cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors is high among individuals living in low- and middle-income countries. We described receipt of healthcare services for and management of hypertension and diabetes among individuals living with these conditions using individual-level data from 55 nationally representative population-based surveys (2009-2019) with measured blood pressure (BP) and diabetes biomarker. We restricted our analysis to non-pregnant individuals aged 40-69 years and defined three mutually exclusive groups (i.e., hypertension only, diabetes only, and both hypertension-diabetes) to compare individuals living with concurrent hypertension and diabetes to individuals with each condition separately. We included 90,086 individuals who lived with hypertension only, 11,975 with diabetes only, and 16,228 with hypertension-diabetes. We estimated the percentage of individuals who were aware of their diagnosis, used pharmacological therapy, or achieved appropriate hypertension and diabetes management. A greater percentage of individuals with hypertension-diabetes were fully diagnosed (64.1% [95% CI: 61.8-66.4]) than those with hypertension only (47.4% [45.3-49.6]) or diabetes only (46.7% [44.1-49.2]). Among the hypertension-diabetes group, pharmacological treatment was higher for individual conditions (38.3% [95% CI: 34.8-41.8] using antihypertensive and 42.3% [95% CI: 39.4-45.2] using glucose-lowering medications) than for both conditions jointly (24.6% [95% CI: 22.1-27.2]).The percentage of individuals achieving appropriate management was highest in the hypertension group (17.6% [16.4-18.8]), followed by diabetes (13.3% [10.7-15.8]) and hypertension-diabetes (6.6% [5.4-7.8]) groups. Although health systems in LMICs are reaching a larger share of individuals living with both hypertension and diabetes than those living with just one of these conditions, only seven percent achieved both BP and blood glucose treatment targets. Implementation of cost-effective population-level interventions that shift clinical care paradigm from disease-specific to comprehensive CVD care are urgently needed for all three groups, especially for those with multiple CVD risk factors.

Prevalence of prediabetes in Mexico: a retrospective analysis of nationally representative surveys spanning 2016-2022.

Background: Characterizing prediabetes phenotypes may be useful in guiding diabetes prevention efforts; however, heterogeneous criteria to define prediabetes have led to inconsistent prevalence estimates, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Here, we estimated trends in prediabetes prevalence in Mexico across different prediabetes definitions and their association with prevalent cardiometabolic conditions. Methods: We conducted a serial cross-sectional analysis of National Health and Nutrition Surveys in Mexico (2016-2022), totalling 22 081 Mexican adults. After excluding individuals with diagnosed or undiagnosed diabetes, we defined prediabetes using ADA (impaired fasting glucose [IFG] 100-125 mg/dL and/or HbA1c 5.7-6.4%), WHO (IFG 110-125 mg/dL), and IEC criteria (HbA1c 6.0-6.4%). Prevalence trends of prediabetes over time were evaluated using weighted Poisson regression and its association with prevalent cardiometabolic conditions with weighted logistic regression. Findings: The prevalence of prediabetes (either IFG or high HbA1c [ADA]) in Mexico was 20.9% in 2022. Despite an overall downward trend in prediabetes (RR 0.973, 95% CI 0.957-0.988), this was primarily driven by decreases in prediabetes by ADA-IFG (RR 0.898, 95% CI 0.880-0.917) and WHO-IFG criteria (RR 0.919, 95% CI 0.886-0.953), while prediabetes by ADA-HbA1c (RR 1.055, 95% CI 1.033-1.077) and IEC-HbA1C criteria (RR 1.085, 95% CI 1.045-1.126) increased over time. Prediabetes prevalence increased over time in adults >40 years, with central obesity, self-identified as indigenous or living in urban areas. For all definitions, prediabetes was associated with an increased risk of cardiometabolic conditions. Interpretation: Prediabetes rates in Mexico from 2016 to 2022 varied based on defining criteria but consistently increased for HbA1c-based definitions and high-risk subgroups. Funding: This research was supported by Instituto Nacional de Geriatría in Mexico. JAS was supported by NIH/NIDDK Grant# K23DK135798.

Supporting Our Physician Parents (SOPPort): A pilot program for parental wellness at the Massachusetts General Hospital.

Physician parents encounter unique challenges in balancing new parenthood with work responsibilities, especially upon their return from parental leave. We designed a pilot program that incorporated 1:1 parental coaching to expectant and new physician parents and provided stipends for lactation support and help at home. Additional initiatives included launching a virtual new parent group during the COVID-19 pandemic and starting an emergency backup pump supplies program. There was positive feedback for our Parental Wellness Program (PWP), which was used to secure expanded funding. Pilot results showed that our program had a meaningful impact on parental wellness, morale, productivity, and lactation efforts.

Health service readiness to provide care for HIV and cardiovascular disease risk factors in low- and middle-income countries.

Cardiovascular disease risk factors (CVDRF), in particular diabetes and hypertension, are chronic conditions which carry a substantial disease burden in Low- and Middle-Income Countries. Unlike HIV, they were neglected in the Millenium Development Goals along with the health services required to manage them. To inform the level of health service readiness that could be achieved with increased attention, we compared readiness for CVDRF with that for HIV. Using data from national Service Provision Assessments, we describe facility-reported readiness to provide services for CVDRF and HIV, and derive a facility readiness score of observed essential components to manage them. We compared HIV vs CVDRF coverage scores by country, rural or urban location, and facility type, and by whether or not facilities reported readiness to provide care. We assessed the factors associated with coverage scores for CVDRF and HIV in a multivariable analysis. In our results, we include 7522 facilities in 8 countries; 86% of all facilities reported readiness to provide services for CVDRF, ranging from 77-98% in individual countries. For HIV, 30% reported of facilities readiness to provide services, ranging from 3-63%. Median derived facility readiness score for CVDRF was 0.28 (IQR 0.16-0.50), and for HIV was 0.43 (0.32-0.60). Among facilities which reported readiness, this rose to 0.34 (IQR 0.18-0.52) for CVD and 0.68 (0.56-0.76) for HIV. Derived readiness scores were generally significantly lower for CVDRF than for HIV, except in private facilities. In multivariable analysis, odds of a higher readiness score in both CVDRF or HIV care were higher in urban vs rural and secondary vs primary care; facilities with higher CVDRF scores were significantly associated with higher HIV scores. Derived readiness scores for HIV are higher than for CVDRF, and coverage for CVDRF is significantly higher in facilities with higher HIV readiness scores. This suggests possible benefits from leveraging HIV services to provide care for CVDRF, but poor coverage in rural and primary care facilities threatens Sustainable Development Goal 3.8 to provide high quality universal healthcare for all.

Diabetes risk and provision of diabetes prevention activities in 44 low-income and middle-income countries: a cross-sectional analysis of nationally representative, individual-level survey data.

BACKGROUND: The global burden of diabetes is rising rapidly, yet there is little evidence on individual-level diabetes prevention activities undertaken by health systems in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). Here we describe the population at high risk of developing diabetes, estimate diabetes prevention activities, and explore sociodemographic variation in these activities across LMICs. METHODS: We performed a pooled, cross-sectional analysis of individual-level data from nationally representative, population-based surveys conducted in 44 LMICs between October, 2009, and May, 2019. Our sample included all participants older than 25 years who did not have diabetes and were not pregnant. We defined the population at high risk of diabetes on the basis of either the presence of impaired fasting glucose (or prediabetes in countries with a haemoglobin A1c available) or overweight or obesity, consistent with the WHO Package of Essential Noncommunicable Disease Guidelines for type 2 diabetes management. We estimated the proportion of survey participants that were at high risk of developing diabetes based on this definition. We also estimated the proportion of the population at high risk that reported each of four fundamental diabetes prevention activities: physical activity counselling, weight loss counselling, dietary counselling, and blood glucose screening, overall and stratified by World Bank income group. Finally, we used multivariable Poisson regression models to evaluate associations between sociodemographic characteristics and these activities. FINDINGS: The final pooled sample included 145 739 adults (86 269 [59·2%] of whom were female and 59 468 [40·4%] of whom were male) across 44 LMICs, of whom 59 308 (40·6% [95% CI 38·5-42·8]) were considered at high risk of diabetes (20·6% [19·8-21·5] in low-income countries, 38·0% [37·2-38·9] in lower-middle-income countries, and 57·5% [54·3-60·6] in upper-middle-income countries). Overall, the reach of diabetes prevention activities was low at 40·0% (38·6-41·4) for physical activity counselling, 37·1% (35·9-38·4) for weight loss counselling, 42·7% (41·6-43·7) for dietary counselling, and 37·1% (34·7-39·6) for blood glucose screening. Diabetes prevention varied widely by national-level wealth: 68·1% (64·6-71·4) of people at high risk of diabetes in low-income countries reported none of these activities, whereas 49·0% (47·4-50·7) at high risk in upper-middle-income countries reported at least three activities. Educational attainment was associated with diabetes prevention, with estimated increases in the predicted probability of receipt ranging between 6·5 (3·6-9·4) percentage points for dietary fruit and vegetable counselling and 21·3 (19·5-23·2) percentage points for blood glucose screening, among people with some secondary schooling compared with people with no formal education. INTERPRETATION: A large proportion of individuals across LMICs are at high risk of diabetes but less than half reported receiving fundamental prevention activities overall, with the lowest receipt of these activities among people in low-income countries and with no formal education. These findings offer foundational evidence to inform future global targets for diabetes prevention and to strengthen policies and programmes to prevent continued increases in diabetes worldwide. FUNDING: Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health McLennan Fund: Dean's Challenge Grant Program and the EU's Research and Innovation programme Horizon 2020.

Diabetes-Related Excess Mortality in Mexico: A Comparative Analysis of National Death Registries Between 2017-2019 and 2020.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate diabetes-related mortality in Mexico in 2020 compared with 2017-2019 after the onset of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: This retrospective, state-level study used national death registries of Mexican adults aged ≥20 years for the 2017-2020 period. Diabetes-related death was defined using ICD-10 codes listing diabetes as the primary cause of death, excluding certificates with COVID-19 as the primary cause of death. Spatial and negative binomial regression models were used to characterize the geographic distribution and sociodemographic and epidemiologic correlates of diabetes-related excess mortality, estimated as increases in diabetes-related mortality in 2020 compared with average 2017-2019 rates. RESULTS: We identified 148,437 diabetes-related deaths in 2020 (177 per 100,000 inhabitants) vs. an average of 101,496 deaths in 2017-2019 (125 per 100,000 inhabitants). In-hospital diabetes-related deaths decreased by 17.8% in 2020 versus 2017-2019, whereas out-of-hospital deaths increased by 89.4%. Most deaths were attributable to type 2 diabetes (130 per 100,000 inhabitants). Compared with 2018-2019 data, hyperglycemic hyperosmolar state and diabetic ketoacidosis were the two contributing causes with the highest increase in mortality (128% and 116% increase, respectively). Diabetes-related excess mortality clustered in southern Mexico and was highest in states with higher social lag, rates of COVID-19 hospitalization, and prevalence of HbA1c ≥7.5%. CONCLUSIONS: Diabetes-related deaths increased among Mexican adults by 41.6% in 2020 after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, occurred disproportionately outside the hospital, and were largely attributable to type 2 diabetes and hyperglycemic emergencies. Disruptions in diabetes care and strained hospital capacity may have contributed to diabetes-related excess mortality in Mexico during 2020.

Socio-demographic inequalities and excess non-COVID-19 mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic: a data-driven analysis of 1 069 174 death certificates in Mexico.

BACKGROUND: In 2020, Mexico experienced one of the highest rates of excess mortality globally. However, the extent of non-COVID deaths on excess mortality, its regional distribution and the association between socio-demographic inequalities have not been characterized. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective municipal and individual-level study using 1 069 174 death certificates to analyse COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 deaths classified by ICD-10 codes. Excess mortality was estimated as the increase in cause-specific mortality in 2020 compared with the average of 2015-2019, disaggregated by primary cause of death, death setting (in-hospital and out-of-hospital) and geographical location. Correlates of individual and municipal non-COVID-19 mortality were assessed using mixed effects logistic regression and negative binomial regression models, respectively. RESULTS: We identified a 51% higher mortality rate (276.11 deaths per 100 000 inhabitants) compared with the 2015-2019 average period, largely attributable to COVID-19. Non-COVID-19 causes comprised one-fifth of excess deaths, with acute myocardial infarction and type 2 diabetes as the two leading non-COVID-19 causes of excess mortality. COVID-19 deaths occurred primarily in-hospital, whereas excess non-COVID-19 deaths occurred in out-of-hospital settings. Municipal-level predictors of non-COVID-19 excess mortality included levels of social security coverage, higher rates of COVID-19 hospitalization and social marginalization. At the individual level, lower educational attainment, blue-collar employment and lack of medical care assistance prior to death were associated with non-COVID-19 deaths. CONCLUSION: Non-COVID-19 causes of death, largely chronic cardiometabolic conditions, comprised up to one-fifth of excess deaths in Mexico during 2020. Non-COVID-19 excess deaths occurred disproportionately out-of-hospital and were associated with both individual- and municipal-level socio-demographic inequalities.

Physician Practice Pattern Variations in Common Clinical Scenarios Within 5 US Metropolitan Areas.

Importance: While variations in quality of care have been described between US regions, physician-level practice pattern variations within regions remain poorly understood, notably among specialists. Objective: To examine within-area physician-level variations in decision-making in common clinical scenarios where guidelines specifying appropriateness or quality of care exist. Design Setting and Participants: This cross-sectional study used 2016 through 2019 data from a large nationwide network of commercial insurers, provided by Health Intelligence Company, LLC, within 5 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). Physician-level variations in appropriateness and quality of care were measured using 14 common clinical scenarios involving 7 specialties. The measures were constructed using public quality measure definitions, clinical guidelines, and appropriateness criteria from the clinical literature. Physician performance was calculated using a multilevel model adjusted for patient age, sex, risk score, and socioeconomic status with physician random effects. Measure reliability for each physician was calculated using the signal-to-noise approach. Within-MSA variation was calculated between physician quintiles adjusted for patient attributes, with the first quintile denoting highest quality or appropriateness and the fifth quintile reflecting the opposite. Data were analyzed March through October 2021. Main Outcomes and Measures: Fourteen measures of quality or appropriateness of care, with 2 measures each in the domains of cardiology, endocrinology, gastroenterology, pulmonology, obstetrics, orthopedics, and neurosurgery. Results: A total of 8788 physicians were included across the 5 MSAs, and about 2.5 million unique patient-physician pairs were included in the measures. Within the 5 MSAs, on average, patients in the measures were 34.7 to 40.7 years old, 49.1% to 52.3% female, had a mean risk score of 0.8 to 1.0, and more likely to have an employer-sponsored insurance plan that was either self-insured or fully insured (59.8% to 97.6%). Within MSAs, physician-level variations were qualitatively similar across measures. For example, statin therapy in patients with coronary artery disease ranged from 54.3% to 70.9% in the first quintile of cardiologists to 30.5% to 42.6% in the fifth quintile. Upper endoscopy in patients with gastroesophageal reflux disease without alarm symptoms spanned 14.6% to 16.9% in the first quintile of gastroenterologists to 28.2% to 33.8% in the fifth quintile. Among patients with new knee or hip osteoarthritis, 2.1% to 3.4% received arthroscopy in the first quintile of orthopedic surgeons, whereas 25.5% to 30.7% did in the fifth quintile. Appropriate prenatal screening among pregnant patients ranged from 82.6% to 93.6% in the first quintile of obstetricians to 30.9% to 65.7% in the fifth quintile. Within MSAs, adjusted differences between quintiles approximated unadjusted differences. Measure reliability, which can reflect consistency and reproducibility, exceeded 70.0% across nearly all measures in all MSAs. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cross-sectional study of 5 US metropolitan areas, sizeable physician-level practice variations were found across common clinical scenarios and specialties. Understanding the sources of these variations may inform efforts to improve the value of care.

Rural-Urban Differences in Diabetes Care and Control in 42 Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Cross-sectional Study of Nationally Representative Individual-Level Data.

OBJECTIVE: Diabetes prevalence is increasing rapidly in rural areas of low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), but there are limited data on the performance of health systems in delivering equitable and effective care to rural populations. We therefore assessed rural-urban differences in diabetes care and control in LMICs. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We pooled individual-level data from nationally representative health surveys in 42 countries. We used Poisson regression models to estimate age-adjusted differences in the proportion of individuals with diabetes in rural versus urban areas achieving performance measures for the diagnosis, treatment, and control of diabetes and associated cardiovascular risk factors. We examined differences across the pooled sample, by sex, and by country. RESULTS: The pooled sample from 42 countries included 840,110 individuals (35,404 with diabetes). Compared with urban populations with diabetes, rural populations had ∼15-30% lower relative risk of achieving performance measures for diabetes diagnosis and treatment. Rural populations with diagnosed diabetes had a 14% (95% CI 5-22%) lower relative risk of glycemic control, 6% (95% CI -5 to 16%) lower relative risk of blood pressure control, and 23% (95% CI 2-39%) lower relative risk of cholesterol control. Rural women with diabetes had lower achievement of performance measures relating to control than urban women, whereas among men, differences were small. CONCLUSIONS: Rural populations with diabetes experience substantial inequities in the achievement of diabetes performance measures in LMICs. Programs and policies aiming to strengthen global diabetes care must consider the unique challenges experienced by rural populations.

Hospitalisation and mortality from COVID-19 in Mexican indigenous people: a cross-sectional observational study.

BACKGROUND: Despite having a large indigenous population, little is known about the differences in COVID-19-related health outcomes between indigenous and non-indigenous patients in Mexico. The aim of this study is to analyse the variation in hospitalisation and death between indigenous and non-indigenous patients with COVID-19 to guide future policies and clinical practice. METHODS: We used data from the Mexican Ministry of Health (MoH) to study the hospitalisation and death of adults with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 in MoH facilities between 1 March 2020 and 28 February 2021. Predicted probabilities of hospitalisation and death were adjusted for sociodemographic and presentation to care characteristics as well as municipal social deprivation index and health jurisdiction-level index of human resource and hospital equipment availability. RESULTS: Of 465 676 hospitalised adults with COVID-19, 5873 (1.3%) were identified as indigenous. Indigenous patients had higher odds of hospitalisation (adjusted OR (aOR)=1.9, 95% CI 1.8 to 2.0), death (aOR=1.3, 95% CI 1.1 to 1. 3) and early mortality (aOR=1.2, 95% CI 1.0 to 1.4), compared with non-indigenous patients. Living in municipalities with high social deprivation was associated with a higher risk of hospitalisation and early death. Living in areas with low healthcare resources was associated with a higher risk of hospitalisation but not death. Being male, aged 51 years or older, having diabetes, hypertension and obesity were associated with an incremental probability of hospitalisation and death among indigenous patients. CONCLUSIONS: Indigenous patients with COVID-19 in Mexico have a higher risk of hospitalisation and death than non-indigenous individuals. Our findings can guide future efforts to protect this population from SARS-CoV-2 infection and associated outcomes.

Visceral Adiposity and Severe COVID-19 Disease: Application of an Artificial Intelligence Algorithm to Improve Clinical Risk Prediction.

BACKGROUND: Obesity has been linked to severe clinical outcomes among people who are hospitalized with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We tested the hypothesis that visceral adipose tissue (VAT) is associated with severe outcomes in patients hospitalized with COVID-19, independent of body mass index (BMI). METHODS: We analyzed data from the Massachusetts General Hospital COVID-19 Data Registry, which included patients admitted with polymerase chain reaction-confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection from March 11 to May 4, 2020. We used a validated, fully automated artificial intelligence (AI) algorithm to quantify VAT from computed tomography (CT) scans during or before the hospital admission. VAT quantification took an average of 2 ± 0.5 seconds per patient. We dichotomized VAT as high and low at a threshold of ≥100 cm2 and used Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazards regression to assess the relationship between VAT and death or intubation over 28 days, adjusting for age, sex, race, BMI, and diabetes status. RESULTS: A total of 378 participants had CT imaging. Kaplan-Meier curves showed that participants with high VAT had a greater risk of the outcome compared with those with low VAT (P < .005), especially in those with BMI <30 kg/m2 (P < .005). In multivariable models, the adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) for high vs low VAT was unchanged (aHR, 1.97; 95% CI, 1.24-3.09), whereas BMI was no longer significant (aHR for obese vs normal BMI, 1.14; 95% CI, 0.71-1.82). CONCLUSIONS: High VAT is associated with a greater risk of severe disease or death in COVID-19 and can offer more precise information to risk-stratify individuals beyond BMI. AI offers a promising approach to routinely ascertain VAT and improve clinical risk prediction in COVID-19.

Body-mass index and diabetes risk in 57 low-income and middle-income countries: a cross-sectional study of nationally representative, individual-level data in 685 616 adults.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of overweight, obesity, and diabetes is rising rapidly in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), but there are scant empirical data on the association between body-mass index (BMI) and diabetes in these settings. METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, we pooled individual-level data from nationally representative surveys across 57 LMICs. We identified all countries in which a WHO Stepwise Approach to Surveillance (STEPS) survey had been done during a year in which the country fell into an eligible World Bank income group category. For LMICs that did not have a STEPS survey, did not have valid contact information, or declined our request for data, we did a systematic search for survey datasets. Eligible surveys were done during or after 2008; had individual-level data; were done in a low-income, lower-middle-income, or upper-middle-income country; were nationally representative; had a response rate of 50% or higher; contained a diabetes biomarker (either a blood glucose measurement or glycated haemoglobin [HbA1c]); and contained data on height and weight. Diabetes was defined biologically as a fasting plasma glucose concentration of 7·0 mmol/L (126·0 mg/dL) or higher; a random plasma glucose concentration of 11·1 mmol/L (200·0 mg/dL) or higher; or a HbA1c of 6·5% (48·0 mmol/mol) or higher, or by self-reported use of diabetes medication. We included individuals aged 25 years or older with complete data on diabetes status, BMI (defined as normal [18·5-22·9 kg/m2], upper-normal [23·0-24·9 kg/m2], overweight [25·0-29·9 kg/m2], or obese [≥30·0 kg/m2]), sex, and age. Countries were categorised into six geographical regions: Latin America and the Caribbean, Europe and central Asia, east, south, and southeast Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, Middle East and north Africa, and Oceania. We estimated the association between BMI and diabetes risk by multivariable Poisson regression and receiver operating curve analyses, stratified by sex and geographical region. FINDINGS: Our pooled dataset from 58 nationally representative surveys in 57 LMICs included 685 616 individuals. The overall prevalence of overweight was 27·2% (95% CI 26·6-27·8), of obesity was 21·0% (19·6-22·5), and of diabetes was 9·3% (8·4-10·2). In the pooled analysis, a higher risk of diabetes was observed at a BMI of 23 kg/m2 or higher, with a 43% greater risk of diabetes for men and a 41% greater risk for women compared with a BMI of 18·5-22·9 kg/m2. Diabetes risk also increased steeply in individuals aged 35-44 years and in men aged 25-34 years in sub-Saharan Africa. In the stratified analyses, there was considerable regional variability in this association. Optimal BMI thresholds for diabetes screening ranged from 23·8 kg/m2 among men in east, south, and southeast Asia to 28·3 kg/m2 among women in the Middle East and north Africa and in Latin America and the Caribbean. INTERPRETATION: The association between BMI and diabetes risk in LMICs is subject to substantial regional variability. Diabetes risk is greater at lower BMI thresholds and at younger ages than reflected in currently used BMI cutoffs for assessing diabetes risk. These findings offer an important insight to inform context-specific diabetes screening guidelines. FUNDING: Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health McLennan Fund: Dean's Challenge Grant Program.

Diabetes mellitus as a risk factor for SARS-CoV-2 test positivity in Mexico: A propensity score matched study.

AIMS: We sought to investigate whether individuals with diabetes have a higher likelihood of testing positive for SARS-CoV-2, as a proxy for infection risk, than individuals without diabetes. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study of publicly available data among a Mexican population, totaling 2,314,022 adults ≥ 18 years who underwent SARS-CoV-2 testing between March 1 and December 20, 2020. We used 1:1 nearest neighborhood propensity score matching by diabetes status to account for confounding among those with and without diabetes. RESULTS: In the overall study population, 1,057,779 (45.7%) individuals tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 and 270,486 (11.7%) self-reported diabetes. After propensity score matching, patient characteristics were well-balanced, with 150,487 patients in the diabetes group (mean [SD] age 55.9 [12.7] years; 51.3% women) and 150,487 patients in the no diabetes group (55.5 [13.3] years; 50.3% women). The strictest matching algorithm (1:1 nearest neighbor) showed that compared to individuals without diabetes, having diabetes was associated with 9.0% higher odds of having a positive SARS-CoV-2 test (OR 1.09 [95% CI: 1.08-1.10]). CONCLUSIONS: Presence of diabetes was associated with higher odds of testing positive for SARS-CoV-2, which could have important implications for risk mitigation efforts for people with diabetes at risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Regional and state-level patterns of type 2 diabetes prevalence in Mexico over the last three decades.

AIMS: We aimed to characterize and illustrate the regional and state-level change in type 2 diabetes (T2D) prevalence in Mexico between 1990 and 2017. METHODS: We conducted an ecological and secondary analysis using data from the Global Burden of Disease study on T2D prevalence of the adult Mexican population. We estimated the absolute increase and annual growth rate of T2D prevalence between 1990 and 2017, stratified by age group and region. RESULTS: Nationally, between 1990 and 2017, the prevalence of T2D in Mexico increased from 9.5% to 14.3%. The highest increase in T2D prevalence was observed in the East and Southcentral regions, with the lowest absolute change in T2D prevalence observed in Northern states. The highest average annual growth rate in T2D prevalence was observed in Southern Mexico, in the three Southern states with the lowest human development index, and among individuals ages 15-49 years across all regions, compared to those 50 years and older. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of T2D in Mexico has increased substantially over the past three decades, with a clear shift in T2D prevalence from Northern to Southern states and a faster increase occurring in Southern Mexico among younger adults and in areas with lower economic resources.

Assessing the continuum of care for maternal health in Mexico, 1994-2018.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the temporal and geographical patterns of the continuum of maternal health care in Mexico, as well as the sociodemographic characteristics that affect the likelihood of receiving this care. METHODS: We conducted a pooled cross-sectional analysis using the 1997, 2009, 2014 and 2018 waves of the National Survey of Demographic Dynamics, collating sociodemographic and obstetric characteristics of 93 745 women aged 12-54 years at last delivery. We defined eight variables along the antenatal-postnatal continuum, both independently and conditionally. We used a pooled fixed-effects multivariable logistic model to determine the likelihood of receiving the continuum of care for various properties. We also mapped the quintiles of adjusted state-level absolute change in continuum of care coverage during 1994-2018. FINDINGS: We observed large absolute increases in the proportion of women receiving timely antenatal and postnatal care (from 48.9% to 88.2% and from 39.1% to 68.7%, respectively). In our conditional analysis, we found that the proportion of women receiving adequate antenatal care doubled over this period. We showed that having social security and a higher level of education is positively associated with receiving the continuum of care. We observed the largest relative increases in continuum of care coverage in Chiapas (181.5%) and Durango (160.6%), assigned human development index categories of low and medium, respectively. CONCLUSION: Despite significant progress in coverage of the continuum of maternal health care, disparities remain. While ensuring progress towards achievement of the health-related sustainable development goal, government intervention must also target underserved populations.