Enriched soil amendments influenced soil fertility, herbage yield and bioactive principle of medicinal plant (Cassia angustifolia Vahl.) grown in two different soils.

High cost of chemical fertilizers and poor nutrient content in conventional organic sources (manure, compost, charcoal etc.) can be addressed through development of enriched organic amendments. However, there is a need to evaluate enriched organic amendments as a potential alternative of chemical fertilizers. Therefore, an effort was made to prepare enriched organic amendments through blending distillation waste of aromatic plant biomass (DWB) with naturally available low-grade rock phosphate (RP) and waste mica (WM). Enrich compost (ENC) was produced from DWB in a natural composting process, blended with mineral powder, whereas biochar fortified mineral (BFM) was prepared by blending biochar, derived from DWB through hydrothermal reaction, with mineral powder. The main aims of the present study were to investigate the impacts of ENC and BFM applications on soil properties, and herbage yield and quality of a medicinal herb Senna (Cassia angustifolia Vahl.). The performances of ENC and BFM at two different rates (2.5 and 5 t ha-1) were compared with the application of conventional farmyard manure (FYM, 5 t ha-1) and chemical fertilizers (CF, NPK 60-40-20 kg ha-1) in two different soils in a pot experiment. Both, ENC and EBC improved soil quality and fertility by increasing soil organic carbon, available nutrients, microbial biomass and enzyme activity. The ENC and BFM increased total herbage yields by 21 and 16.3 % compared to FYM. In both soils, the CF treatment produced the maximum dry herbage yields (32.7-37.4 g pot-1), which however were comparable to ENC (31.9-33.7 g pot-1) and BFM (30.7-35.1 g pot-1) treatments. Bioactive compound (sennoside) production in senna was significantly improved by ENC and BFM compared to CF. The present study indicates that ENC and BFM could not only help to overcome the limitation of conventional FYM, but also have the potentials to substitute costly chemical fertilizers, particularly in medicinal plant cultivation.

Simulation of winter wheat response to variable sowing dates and densities in a high-yielding environment.

Crop multi-model ensembles (MME) have proven to be effective in increasing the accuracy of simulations in modelling experiments. However, the ability of MME to capture crop responses to changes in sowing dates and densities has not yet been investigated. These management interventions are some of the main levers for adapting cropping systems to climate change. Here, we explore the performance of a MME of 29 wheat crop models to predict the effect of changing sowing dates and rates on yield and yield components, on two sites located in a high-yielding environment in New Zealand. The experiment was conducted for 6 years and provided 50 combinations of sowing date, sowing density and growing season. We show that the MME simulates seasonal growth of wheat well under standard sowing conditions, but fails under early sowing and high sowing rates. The comparison between observed and simulated in-season fraction of intercepted photosynthetically active radiation (FIPAR) for early sown wheat shows that the MME does not capture the decrease of crop above ground biomass during winter months due to senescence. Models need to better account for tiller competition for light, nutrients, and water during vegetative growth, and early tiller senescence and tiller mortality, which are exacerbated by early sowing, high sowing densities, and warmer winter temperatures.

Global wheat production could benefit from closing the genetic yield gap.

Global food security requires food production to be increased in the coming decades. The closure of any existing genetic yield gap (Yig) by genetic improvement could increase crop yield potential and global production. Here we estimated present global wheat Yig, covering all wheat-growing environments and major producers, by optimizing local wheat cultivars using the wheat model Sirius. The estimated mean global Yig was 51%, implying that global wheat production could benefit greatly from exploiting the untapped global Yig through the use of optimal cultivar designs, utilization of the vast variation available in wheat genetic resources, application of modern advanced breeding tools, and continuous improvements of crop and soil management.

Local impacts of climate change on winter wheat in Great Britain.

Under future CMIP5 climate change scenarios for 2050, an increase in wheat yield of about 10% is predicted in Great Britain (GB) as a result of the combined effect of CO2 fertilization and a shift in phenology. Compared to the present day, crops escape increases in the climate impacts of drought and heat stresses on grain yield by developing before these stresses can occur. In the future, yield losses from water stress over a growing season will remain about the same across Great Britain with losses reaching around 20% of potential yield, while losses from drought around flowering will decrease and account for about 9% of water limited yield. Yield losses from heat stress around flowering will remain negligible in the future. These conclusions are drawn from a modelling study based on the response of the Sirius wheat simulation model to local-scale 2050-climate scenarios derived from 19 Global Climate Models from the CMIP5 ensemble at 25 locations representing current or potential wheat-growing areas in GB. However, depending on susceptibility to water stress, substantial interannual yield variation between locations is predicted, in some cases suggesting low wheat yield stability. For this reason, local-scale studies should be performed to evaluate uncertainties in yield prediction related to future weather patterns.

Adverse weather conditions for UK wheat production under climate change.

Winter wheat is an important crop in the UK, suited to the typical weather conditions in the current climate. In a changing climate the increased frequency and severity of adverse weather events, which are often localised, are considered a major threat to wheat production. In the present study we assessed a range of adverse weather conditions, which can significantly affect yield, under current and future climates based on adverse weather indices. We analysed changes in the frequency, magnitude and spatial patterns of 10 adverse weather indices, at 25 sites across the UK, using climate scenarios from the CMIP5 ensemble of global climate models (GCMs) and two greenhouse gas emissions (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The future UK climate is expected to remain favourable for wheat production, with most adverse weather indicators reducing in magnitude by the mid-21st century. Hotter and drier summers would improve sowing and harvesting conditions and reduce the risk of lodging. The probability of late frosts and heat stress during reproductive and grain filling periods would likely remain small in 2050. Wetter winter and spring could cause issues with waterlogging. The severity of drought stress during reproduction would generally be lower in 2050, however localised differences suggest it is important to examine drought at a small spatial scale. Prolonged water stress does not increase considerably in the UK, as may be expected in other parts of Europe. Climate projections based on the CMIP5 ensemble reveal considerable uncertainty in the magnitude of adverse weather conditions including waterlogging, drought and water stress. The variation in adverse weather conditions due to GCMs was generally greater than between emissions scenarios. Accordingly, CMIP5 ensembles should be used in the assessment of adverse weather conditions for crop production to indicate the full range of possible impacts, which a limited number of GCMs may not provide.

Large genetic yield potential and genetic yield gap estimated for wheat in Europe.

Improving yield potential and closing the yield gap are important to achieve global food security. Europe is the largest wheat producer, delivering about 35% of wheat globally, but European wheat's yield potential from genetic improvements is as yet unknown. We estimated wheat 'genetic yield potential', i.e. the yield of optimal or ideal genotypes in a target environment, across major wheat growing regions in Europe by designing in silico ideotypes. These ideotypes were optimised for current climatic conditions and based on optimal physiology, constrained by available genetic variation in target traits. A 'genetic yield gap' in a location was estimated as the difference between the yield potential of the optimal ideotype compared with a current, well-adapted cultivar. A large mean genetic yield potential (11-13 t ha-1) and genetic yield gap (3.5-5.2 t ha-1) were estimated under rainfed conditions in Europe. In other words, despite intensive wheat breeding efforts, current local cultivars were found to be far from their optimum, meaning that a large genetic yield gap still exists in European wheat. Heat and drought tolerance around flowering, optimal canopy structure and phenology, improved root water uptake and reduced leaf senescence under drought were identified as key traits for improvement. Closing this unexploited genetic yield gap in Europe through crop improvements and genetic adaptations could contribute towards global food security.

Raising genetic yield potential in high productive countries: Designing wheat ideotypes under climate change.

Designing crop ideotype is an important step to raise genetic yield potential in a target environment. In the present study, we designed wheat ideotypes based on the state-of-the-art knowledge in crop physiology to increase genetic yield potential for the 2050-climate, as projected by the HadGEM2 global climate model for the RCP8.5 emission scenario, in two high-wheat-productive countries, viz. the United Kingdom (UK) and New Zealand (NZ). Wheat ideotypes were optimized to maximize yield potential for both water-limited (IW2050 ) and potential (IP2050 ) conditions by using Sirius model and exploring the full range of cultivar parameters. On average, a 43-51% greater yield potential over the present winter wheat cv. Claire was achieved for IW2050 in the UK and NZ, whereas a 51-62% increase was obtained for IP2050 . Yield benefits due to the potential condition over water-limitation were small in the UK, but 13% in NZ. The yield potentials of wheat were 16% (2.6 t ha-1) and 31% (5 t ha-1) greater in NZ than in the UK under 2050-climate in water-limited and potential conditions respectively. Modelling predicts the possibility of substantial increase in genetic yield potential of winter wheat under climate change in high productive countries. Wheat ideotypes optimized for future climate could provide plant scientists and breeders with a road map for selection of the target traits and their optimal combinations for wheat improvement and genetic adaptation to raise the yield potential.

Assessing yield gap in high productive countries by designing wheat ideotypes.

Designing crop ideotypes in silico is a powerful tool to explore the crop yield potential and yield gap. We defined yield gap as the difference between yield potential of a crop ideotype optimized under local environment and yield of an existing cultivar under optimal management. Wheat ideotypes were designed for the current climate using the Sirius model for both water-limited and irrigated conditions in two high wheat-productive countries viz. the United Kingdom (UK) and New Zealand (NZ) with the objective of estimating yield gap. The mean ideotype yields of 15.0-19.0 t ha-1 were achieved in water-limited conditions in the UK and NZ, whereas 15.6-19.5 t ha-1 under irrigated conditions. Substantial yield gaps were found in both water-limited, 28-31% (4-6 t ha-1), and irrigated conditions, 30-32% (5-6 t ha-1) in the UK and NZ. Both yield potential (25-27%) and yield gap (32-38%) were greater in NZ than the UK. Ideotype design is generic and could apply globally for estimating yield gap. Despite wheat breeding efforts, the considerable yield gap still potentially exists in high productive countries such as the UK and NZ. To accelerate breeding, wheat ideotypes can provide the key traits for wheat improvement and closing the yield gap.

Drought tolerance during reproductive development is important for increasing wheat yield potential under climate change in Europe.

Drought stress during reproductive development could drastically reduce wheat grain number and yield, but quantitative evaluation of such an effect is unknown under climate change. The objectives of this study were to evaluate potential yield benefits of drought tolerance during reproductive development for wheat ideotypes under climate change in Europe, and to identify potential cultivar parameters for improvement. We used the Sirius wheat model to optimize drought-tolerant (DT) and drought-sensitive (DS) wheat ideotypes under a future 2050 climate scenario at 13 contrasting sites, representing major wheat growing regions in Europe. Averaged over the sites, DT ideotypes achieved 13.4% greater yield compared with DS, with higher yield stability. However, the performances of the ideotypes were site dependent. Mean yield of DT was 28-37% greater compared with DS in southern Europe. In contrast, no yield difference (≤1%) between ideotypes was found in north-western Europe. An intermediate yield benefit of 10-23% was found due to drought tolerance in central and eastern Europe. We conclude that tolerance to drought stress during reproductive development is important for high yield potentials and greater yield stability of wheat under climate change in Europe.

Modelling nitrous oxide emissions from mown-grass and grain-cropping systems: Testing and sensitivity analysis of DailyDayCent using high frequency measurements.

The DailyDayCent biogeochemical model was used to simulate nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from two contrasting agro-ecosystems viz. a mown-grassland and a grain-cropping system in France. Model performance was tested using high frequency measurements over three years; additionally a local sensitivity analysis was performed. Annual N2O emissions of 1.97 and 1.24kgNha-1year-1 were simulated from mown-grassland and grain-cropland, respectively. Measured and simulated water filled pore space (r=0.86, ME=-2.5%) and soil temperature (r=0.96, ME=-0.63°C) at 10cm soil depth matched well in mown-grassland. The model predicted cumulative hay and crop production effectively. The model simulated soil mineral nitrogen (N) concentrations, particularly ammonium (NH4+), reasonably, but the model significantly underestimated soil nitrate (NO3-) concentration under both systems. In general, the model effectively simulated the dynamics and the magnitude of daily N2O flux over the whole experimental period in grain-cropland (r=0.16, ME=-0.81gNha-1day-1), with reasonable agreement between measured and modelled N2O fluxes for the mown-grassland (r=0.63, ME=-0.65gNha-1day-1). Our results indicate that DailyDayCent has potential for use as a tool for predicting overall N2O emissions in the study region. However, in-depth analysis shows some systematic discrepancies between measured and simulated N2O fluxes on a daily basis. The current exercise suggests that the DailyDayCent may need improvement, particularly the sub-module responsible for N transformations, for better simulating soil mineral N, especially soil NO3- concentration, and N2O flux on a daily basis. The sensitivity analysis shows that many factors such as climate change, N-fertilizer use, input uncertainty and parameter value could influence the simulation of N2O emissions. Sensitivity estimation also helped to identify critical parameters, which need careful estimation or site-specific calibration for successful modelling of N2O emissions in the study region.