Predicting the mutational drivers of future SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern

SARS-CoV-2 evolution threatens vaccine- and natural infection-derived immunity, and the efficacy of therapeutic antibodies. Herein we sought to predict Spike amino acid changes that could contribute to future variants of concern. We tested the importance of features comprising epidemiology, evolution, immunology, and neural network-based protein sequence modeling. This resulted in identification of the primary biological drivers of SARS-CoV-2 intra-pandemic evolution. We found evidence that resistance to population-level host immunity has increasingly shaped SARS-CoV-2 evolution over time. We identified with high accuracy mutations that will spread, at up to four months in advance, across different phases of the pandemic. Behavior of the model was consistent with a plausible causal structure wherein epidemiological variables integrate the effects of diverse and shifting drivers of viral fitness. We applied our model to forecast mutations that will spread in the future, and characterize how these mutations affect the binding of therapeutic antibodies. These findings demonstrate that it is possible to forecast the driver mutations that could appear in emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern. This modeling approach may be applied to any pathogen with genomic surveillance data, and so may address other rapidly evolving pathogens such as influenza, and unknown future pandemic viruses.

Freely accessible ready to use global infrastructure for SARS-CoV-2 monitoring

The COVID-19 pandemic is the first global health crisis to occur in the age of big genomic data.Although data generation capacity is well established and sufficiently standardized, analytical capacity is not. To establish analytical capacity it is necessary to pull together global computational resources and deliver the best open source tools and analysis workflows within a ready to use, universally accessible resource. Such a resource should not be controlled by a single research group, institution, or country. Instead it should be maintained by a community of users and developers who ensure that the system remains operational and populated with current tools. A community is also essential for facilitating the types of discourse needed to establish best analytical practices. Bringing together public computational research infrastructure from the USA, Europe, and Australia, we developed a distributed data analysis platform that accomplishes these goals. It is immediately accessible to anyone in the world and is designed for the analysis of rapidly growing collections of deep sequencing datasets. We demonstrate its utility by detecting allelic variants in high-quality existing SARS-CoV-2 sequencing datasets and by continuous reanalysis of COG-UK data. All workflows, data, and documentation is available at https://covid19.galaxyproject.org.