Quantifying the impact of homophily and influencer networks on song popularity prediction.

Forecasting the popularity of new songs has become a standard practice in the music industry and provides a comparative advantage for those that do it well. Considerable efforts were put into machine learning prediction models for that purpose. It is known that in these models, relevant predictive parameters include intrinsic lyrical and acoustic characteristics, extrinsic factors (e.g., publisher influence and support), and the previous popularity of the artists. Much less attention was given to the social components of the spreading of song popularity. Recently, evidence for musical homophily-the tendency that people who are socially linked also share musical tastes-was reported. Here we determine how musical homophily can be used to predict song popularity. The study is based on an extensive dataset from the last.fm online music platform from which we can extract social links between listeners and their listening patterns. To quantify the importance of networks in the spreading of songs that eventually determines their popularity, we use musical homophily to design a predictive influence parameter and show that its inclusion in state-of-the-art machine learning models enhances predictions of song popularity. The influence parameter improves the prediction precision (TP/(TP + FP)) by about 50% from 0.14 to 0.21, indicating that the social component in the spreading of music plays at least as significant a role as the artist's popularity or the impact of the genre.

Quantifying the complexity and similarity of chess openings using online chess community data.

Chess is a centuries-old game that continues to be widely played worldwide. Opening Theory is one of the pillars of chess and requires years of study to be mastered. In this paper, we use the games played in an online chess platform to exploit the "wisdom of the crowd" and answer questions traditionally tackled only by chess experts. We first define a relatedness network of chess openings that quantifies how similar two openings are to play. Using this network, we identify communities of nodes corresponding to the most common opening choices and their mutual relationships. Furthermore, we demonstrate how the relatedness network can be used to forecast future openings players will start to play, with back-tested predictions outperforming a random predictor. We then apply the Economic Fitness and Complexity algorithm to measure the difficulty of openings and players' skill levels. Our study not only provides a new perspective on chess analysis but also opens the possibility of suggesting personalized opening recommendations using complex network theory.

Evolving collaboration, dependencies, and use in the Rust Open Source Software ecosystem.

Open Source Software (OSS) is widely spread in industry, research, and government. OSS represents an effective development model because it harnesses the decentralized efforts of many developers in a way that scales. As OSS developers work independently on interdependent modules, they create a larger cohesive whole in the form of an ecosystem, leaving traces of their contributions and collaborations. Data harvested from these traces enable the study of large-scale decentralized collaborative work. We present curated data on the activity of tens of thousands of developers in the Rust ecosystem and the evolving dependencies between their libraries. The data covers eight years of developer contributions to Rust libraries and can be used to reconstruct the ecosystem's development history, such as growing developer collaboration networks or dependency networks. These are complemented by data on downloads and popularity, tracking dynamics of use, visibility, and success over time. Altogether the data give a comprehensive view of several dimensions of the ecosystem.

Modeling innovation in the cryptocurrency ecosystem.

Blockchains are among the most relevant emerging technologies of recent times and, according to many, they will have a central role in shaping the future of our society. Since the introduction of Bitcoin in 2009, the first notorious blockchain system bound to a cryptocurrency, the blockchain ecosystem has experienced a huge growth, driven by innovations both in conceptual and algorithmic terms, and in the creation of a large number of new cryptocoins. New blockchains and their associated cryptocoins, emerge mostly as the result of forking already existing projects. Here, we show that the appearance of new cryptocoins can be well described by a sub-linear power-law (Heaps' law) of the total crypto-market capitalization. At the same time, we propose a model that well reproduces the evolution of the cryptocurrency ecosystem. Our model suggests that each cryptocurrency triggers, on average, the creation of ca. 1.58 novel cryptocoins, a result confirmed by the analysis of the Bitcoin historical forking tree. Moreover, we deduce that the largest cryptocurrency, nowadays Bitcoin, will comprise around the 50% of the whole crypto-market and that this fraction is going to stabilize in the near future, provided that the present fundamental macro-economic conditions do not change radically.

Taylor's Law in Innovation Processes.

Taylor's law quantifies the scaling properties of the fluctuations of the number of innovations occurring in open systems. Urn-based modeling schemes have already proven to be effective in modeling this complex behaviour. Here, we present analytical estimations of Taylor's law exponents in such models, by leveraging on their representation in terms of triangular urn models. We also highlight the correspondence of these models with Poisson-Dirichlet processes and demonstrate how a non-trivial Taylor's law exponent is a kind of universal feature in systems related to human activities. We base this result on the analysis of four collections of data generated by human activity: (i) written language (from a Gutenberg corpus); (ii) an online music website (Last.fm); (iii) Twitter hashtags; (iv) an online collaborative tagging system (Del.icio.us). While Taylor's law observed in the last two datasets agrees with the plain model predictions, we need to introduce a generalization to fully characterize the behaviour of the first two datasets, where temporal correlations are possibly more relevant. We suggest that Taylor's law is a fundamental complement to Zipf's and Heaps' laws in unveiling the complex dynamical processes underlying the evolution of systems featuring innovation.

A structured open dataset of government interventions in response to COVID-19.

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, governments have implemented a wide range of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Monitoring and documenting government strategies during the COVID-19 crisis is crucial to understand the progression of the epidemic. Following a content analysis strategy of existing public information sources, we developed a specific hierarchical coding scheme for NPIs. We generated a comprehensive structured dataset of government interventions and their respective timelines of implementation. To improve transparency and motivate collaborative validation process, information sources are shared via an open library. We also provide codes that enable users to visualise the dataset. Standardization and structure of the dataset facilitate inter-country comparison and the assessment of the impacts of different NPI categories on the epidemic parameters, population health indicators, the economy, and human rights, among others. This dataset provides an in-depth insight of the government strategies and can be a valuable tool for developing relevant preparedness plans for pandemic. We intend to further develop and update this dataset until the end of December 2020.

Zipf's, Heaps' and Taylor's Laws are Determined by the Expansion into the Adjacent Possible.

Zipf's, Heaps' and Taylor's laws are ubiquitous in many different systems where innovation processes are at play. Together, they represent a compelling set of stylized facts regarding the overall statistics, the innovation rate and the scaling of fluctuations for systems as diverse as written texts and cities, ecological systems and stock markets. Many modeling schemes have been proposed in literature to explain those laws, but only recently a modeling framework has been introduced that accounts for the emergence of those laws without deducing the emergence of one of the laws from the others or without ad hoc assumptions. This modeling framework is based on the concept of adjacent possible space and its key feature of being dynamically restructured while its boundaries get explored, i.e., conditional to the occurrence of novel events. Here, we illustrate this approach and show how this simple modeling framework, instantiated through a modified Pólya's urn model, is able to reproduce Zipf's, Heaps' and Taylor's laws within a unique self-consistent scheme. In addition, the same modeling scheme embraces other less common evolutionary laws (Hoppe's model and Dirichlet processes) as particular cases.

A New and Stable Estimation Method of Country Economic Fitness and Product Complexity.

We present a new metric estimating fitness of countries and complexity of products by exploiting a non-linear non-homogeneous map applied to the publicly available information on the goods exported by a country. The non homogeneous terms guarantee both convergence and stability. After a suitable rescaling of the relevant quantities, the non homogeneous terms are eventually set to zero so that this new metric is parameter free. This new map almost reproduces the results of the original homogeneous metrics already defined in literature and allows for an approximate analytic solution in case of actual binarized matrices based on the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) indicator. This solution is connected with a new quantity describing the neighborhood of nodes in bipartite graphs, representing in this work the relations between countries and exported products. Moreover, we define the new indicator of country net-efficiency quantifying how a country efficiently invests in capabilities able to generate innovative complex high quality products. Eventually, we demonstrate analytically the local convergence of the algorithm involved.

Significance and popularity in music production.

Creative industries constantly strive for fame and popularity. Though highly desirable, popularity is not the only achievement artistic creations might ever acquire. Leaving a longstanding mark in the global production and influencing future works is an even more important achievement, usually acknowledged by experts and scholars. 'Significant' or 'influential' works are not always well known to the public or have sometimes been long forgotten by the vast majority. In this paper, we focus on the duality between what is successful and what is significant in the musical context. To this end, we consider a user-generated set of tags collected through an online music platform, whose evolving co-occurrence network mirrors the growing conceptual space underlying music production. We define a set of general metrics aiming at characterizing music albums throughout history, and their relationships with the overall musical production. We show how these metrics allow to classify albums according to their current popularity or their belonging to expert-made lists of important albums. In this way, we provide the scientific community and the public at large with quantitative tools to tell apart popular albums from culturally or aesthetically relevant artworks. The generality of the methodology presented here lends itself to be used in all those fields where innovation and creativity are in play.

On the Emergence of Syntactic Structures: Quantifying and Modeling Duality of Patterning.

The complex organization of syntax in hierarchical structures is one of the core design features of human language. Duality of patterning refers, for instance, to the organization of the meaningful elements in a language at two distinct levels: a combinatorial level, where meaningless forms are combined into meaningful forms; and a compositional level, where meaningful forms are composed into larger lexical units. The question remains wide open regarding how such structures could have emerged. The aim of this paper is to address these two aspects in a self-consistent way. First, we introduce suitable measures to quantify the level of combinatoriality and compositionality in a language, and we present a framework to estimate these observables in human natural languages. Second, we show that a recently introduced multi-agent modeling scheme, namely the Blending Game, provides a mathematical framework to address the problem of how a population of individuals can bootstrap combinatoriality and compositionality. Theoretical predictions based on this model turn out to be in good agreement with empirical data. It is remarkable that the two sides of duality of patterning emerge simultaneously as a consequence of a pure cultural dynamics in a simulated environment that contains meaningful relations, provided a simple constraint on message transmission fidelity is also considered.

Local Optimization Strategies in Urban Vehicular Mobility.

The comprehension of vehicular traffic in urban environments is crucial to achieve a good management of the complex processes arising from people collective motion. Even allowing for the great complexity of human beings, human behavior turns out to be subject to strong constraints--physical, environmental, social, economic--that induce the emergence of common patterns. The observation and understanding of those patterns is key to setup effective strategies to optimize the quality of life in cities while not frustrating the natural need for mobility. In this paper we focus on vehicular mobility with the aim to reveal the underlying patterns and uncover the human strategies determining them. To this end we analyze a large dataset of GPS vehicles tracks collected in the Rome (Italy) district during a month. We demonstrate the existence of a local optimization of travel times that vehicle drivers perform while choosing their journey. This finding is mirrored by two additional important facts, i.e., the observation that the average vehicle velocity increases by increasing the travel length and the emergence of a universal scaling law for the distribution of travel times at fixed traveled length. A simple modeling scheme confirms this scenario opening the way to further predictions.

Participatory Patterns in an International Air Quality Monitoring Initiative.

The issue of sustainability is at the top of the political and societal agenda, being considered of extreme importance and urgency. Human individual action impacts the environment both locally (e.g., local air/water quality, noise disturbance) and globally (e.g., climate change, resource use). Urban environments represent a crucial example, with an increasing realization that the most effective way of producing a change is involving the citizens themselves in monitoring campaigns (a citizen science bottom-up approach). This is possible by developing novel technologies and IT infrastructures enabling large citizen participation. Here, in the wider framework of one of the first such projects, we show results from an international competition where citizens were involved in mobile air pollution monitoring using low cost sensing devices, combined with a web-based game to monitor perceived levels of pollution. Measures of shift in perceptions over the course of the campaign are provided, together with insights into participatory patterns emerging from this study. Interesting effects related to inertia and to direct involvement in measurement activities rather than indirect information exposure are also highlighted, indicating that direct involvement can enhance learning and environmental awareness. In the future, this could result in better adoption of policies towards decreasing pollution.

Congestion transition in air traffic networks.

Air Transportation represents a very interesting example of a complex techno-social system whose importance has considerably grown in time and whose management requires a careful understanding of the subtle interplay between technological infrastructure and human behavior. Despite the competition with other transportation systems, a growth of air traffic is still foreseen in Europe for the next years. The increase of traffic load could bring the current Air Traffic Network above its capacity limits so that safety standards and performances might not be guaranteed anymore. Lacking the possibility of a direct investigation of this scenario, we resort to computer simulations in order to quantify the disruptive potential of an increase in traffic load. To this end we model the Air Transportation system as a complex dynamical network of flights controlled by humans who have to solve potentially dangerous conflicts by redirecting aircraft trajectories. The model is driven and validated through historical data of flight schedules in a European national airspace. While correctly reproducing actual statistics of the Air Transportation system, e.g., the distribution of delays, the model allows for theoretical predictions. Upon an increase of the traffic load injected in the system, the model predicts a transition from a phase in which all conflicts can be successfully resolved, to a phase in which many conflicts cannot be resolved anymore. We highlight how the current flight density of the Air Transportation system is well below the transition, provided that controllers make use of a special re-routing procedure. While the congestion transition displays a universal scaling behavior, its threshold depends on the conflict solving strategy adopted. Finally, the generality of the modeling scheme introduced makes it a flexible general tool to simulate and control Air Transportation systems in realistic and synthetic scenarios.

Modeling the emergence of contact languages.

Contact languages are born out of the non-trivial interaction of two (or more) parent languages. Nowadays, the enhanced possibility of mobility and communication allows for a strong mixing of languages and cultures, thus raising the issue of whether there are any pure languages or cultures that are unaffected by contact with others. As with bacteria or viruses in biological evolution, the evolution of languages is marked by horizontal transmission; but to date no reliable quantitative tools to investigate these phenomena have been available. An interesting and well documented example of contact language is the emergence of creole languages, which originated in the contacts of European colonists and slaves during the 17th and 18th centuries in exogenous plantation colonies of especially the Atlantic and Indian Ocean. Here, we focus on the emergence of creole languages to demonstrate a dynamical process that mimics the process of creole formation in American and Caribbean plantation ecologies. Inspired by the Naming Game (NG), our modeling scheme incorporates demographic information about the colonial population in the framework of a non-trivial interaction network including three populations: Europeans, Mulattos/Creoles, and Bozal slaves. We show how this sole information makes it possible to discriminate territories that produced modern creoles from those that did not, with a surprising accuracy. The generality of our approach provides valuable insights for further studies on the emergence of languages in contact ecologies as well as to test specific hypotheses about the peopling and the population structures of the relevant territories. We submit that these tools could be relevant to addressing problems related to contact phenomena in many cultural domains: e.g., emergence of dialects, language competition and hybridization, globalization phenomena.

Awareness and learning in participatory noise sensing.

The development of ICT infrastructures has facilitated the emergence of new paradigms for looking at society and the environment over the last few years. Participatory environmental sensing, i.e. directly involving citizens in environmental monitoring, is one example, which is hoped to encourage learning and enhance awareness of environmental issues. In this paper, an analysis of the behaviour of individuals involved in noise sensing is presented. Citizens have been involved in noise measuring activities through the WideNoise smartphone application. This application has been designed to record both objective (noise samples) and subjective (opinions, feelings) data. The application has been open to be used freely by anyone and has been widely employed worldwide. In addition, several test cases have been organised in European countries. Based on the information submitted by users, an analysis of emerging awareness and learning is performed. The data show that changes in the way the environment is perceived after repeated usage of the application do appear. Specifically, users learn how to recognise different noise levels they are exposed to. Additionally, the subjective data collected indicate an increased user involvement in time and a categorisation effect between pleasant and less pleasant environments.

Vertex intrinsic fitness: how to produce arbitrary scale-free networks.

We study a recent model of random networks based on the presence of an intrinsic character of the vertices called fitness. The vertex fitnesses are drawn from a given probability distribution density. The edges between pairs of vertices are drawn according to a linking probability function depending on the fitnesses of the two vertices involved. We study here different choices for the probability distribution densities and the linking functions. We find that, irrespective of the particular choices, the generation of scale-free networks is straightforward. We then derive the general conditions under which scale-free behavior appears. This model could then represent a possible explanation for the ubiquity and robustness of such structures.

Widespread occurrence of the inverse square distribution in social sciences and taxonomy.

The widespread occurrence of an inverse square relation in the hierarchical distribution of subcommunities within communities (or subspecies within species) has been recently invoked as a signature of hierarchical self-organization within social and ecological systems. Here we show that, whether such systems are self-organized or not, this behavior is the consequence of the treelike classification method. Different treelike classifications (both of real and truly random systems) display a similar statistical behavior when considering the sizes of their sub-branches.