A method for determining groups in cumulative incidence curves in competing risk data.

The cumulative incidence function is the standard method for estimating the marginal probability of a given event in the presence of competing risks. One basic but important goal in the analysis of competing risk data is the comparison of these curves, for which limited literature exists. We proposed a new procedure that lets us not only test the equality of these curves but also group them if they are not equal. The proposed method allows determining the composition of the groups as well as an automatic selection of their number. Simulation studies show the good numerical behavior of the proposed methods for finite sample size. The applicability of the proposed method is illustrated using real data.

A method for determining groups in multiple survival curves.

Survival analysis includes a wide variety of methods for analyzing time-to-event data. One basic but important goal in survival analysis is the comparison of survival curves between groups. Several nonparametric methods have been proposed in the literature to test for the equality of survival curves for censored data. When the null hypothesis of equality of curves is rejected, leading to the clear conclusion that at least one curve is different, it can be interesting to ascertain whether curves can be grouped or if all these curves are different from each other. A method is proposed that allows determining groups with an automatic selection of their number. The validity and behavior of the proposed method was evaluated through simulation studies. The applicability of the proposed method is illustrated using real data. Software in the form of an R package has been developed implementing the proposed method.

Estimation in the progressive illness-death model: A nonexhaustive review.

Multistate models can be successfully used for describing complex event history data, for example, describing stages in the disease progression of a patient. The so-called "illness-death" model plays a central role in the theory and practice of these models. Many time-to-event datasets from medical studies with multiple end points can be reduced to this generic structure. In these models one important goal is the modeling of transition rates but biomedical researchers are also interested in reporting interpretable results in a simple and summarized manner. These include estimates of predictive probabilities, such as the transition probabilities, occupation probabilities, cumulative incidence functions, and the sojourn time distributions. We will give a review of some of the available methods for estimating such quantities in the progressive illness-death model conditionally (or not) on covariate measures. For some of these quantities estimators based on subsampling are employed. Subsampling, also referred to as landmarking, leads to small sample sizes and usually to heavily censored data leading to estimators with higher variability. To overcome this issue estimators based on a preliminary estimation (presmoothing) of the probability of censoring may be used. Among these, the presmoothed estimators for the cumulative incidences are new. We also introduce feasible estimation methods for the cumulative incidence function conditionally on covariate measures. The proposed methods are illustrated using real data. A comparative simulation study of several estimation approaches is performed and existing software in the form of R packages is discussed.

Nonparametric estimation of the survival function for ordered multivariate failure time data: A comparative study.

In longitudinal studies of disease, patients may experience several events through a follow-up period. In these studies, the sequentially ordered events are often of interest and lead to problems that have received much attention recently. Issues of interest include the estimation of bivariate survival, marginal distributions, and the conditional distribution of gap times. In this work, we consider the estimation of the survival function conditional to a previous event. Different nonparametric approaches will be considered for estimating these quantities, all based on the Kaplan-Meier estimator of the survival function. We explore the finite sample behavior of the estimators through simulations. The different methods proposed in this article are applied to a dataset from a German Breast Cancer Study. The methods are used to obtain predictors for the conditional survival probabilities as well as to study the influence of recurrence in overall survival.