Predicting in vivo effect levels for repeat-dose systemic toxicity using chemical, biological, kinetic and study covariates.

In an effort to address a major challenge in chemical safety assessment, alternative approaches for characterizing systemic effect levels, a predictive model was developed. Systemic effect levels were curated from ToxRefDB, HESS-DB and COSMOS-DB from numerous study types totaling 4379 in vivo studies for 1247 chemicals. Observed systemic effects in mammalian models are a complex function of chemical dynamics, kinetics, and inter- and intra-individual variability. To address this complex problem, systemic effect levels were modeled at the study-level by leveraging study covariates (e.g., study type, strain, administration route) in addition to multiple descriptor sets, including chemical (ToxPrint, PaDEL, and Physchem), biological (ToxCast), and kinetic descriptors. Using random forest modeling with cross-validation and external validation procedures, study-level covariates alone accounted for approximately 15% of the variance reducing the root mean squared error (RMSE) from 0.96 log10 to 0.85 log10 mg/kg/day, providing a baseline performance metric (lower expectation of model performance). A consensus model developed using a combination of study-level covariates, chemical, biological, and kinetic descriptors explained a total of 43% of the variance with an RMSE of 0.69 log10 mg/kg/day. A benchmark model (upper expectation of model performance) was also developed with an RMSE of 0.5 log10 mg/kg/day by incorporating study-level covariates and the mean effect level per chemical. To achieve a representative chemical-level prediction, the minimum study-level predicted and observed effect level per chemical were compared reducing the RMSE from 1.0 to 0.73 log10 mg/kg/day, equivalent to 87% of predictions falling within an order-of-magnitude of the observed value. Although biological descriptors did not improve model performance, the final model was enriched for biological descriptors that indicated xenobiotic metabolism gene expression, oxidative stress, and cytotoxicity, demonstrating the importance of accounting for kinetics and non-specific bioactivity in predicting systemic effect levels. Herein, we generated an externally predictive model of systemic effect levels for use as a safety assessment tool and have generated forward predictions for over 30,000 chemicals.

Application of the Margin of Exposure (MOE) approach to substances in food that are genotoxic and carcinogenic.

This paper presents the work of an expert group established by the International Life Sciences Institute - European branch (ILSI Europe) to follow up the recommendations of an international conference on "Risk Assessment of Compounds that are both Genotoxic and Carcinogenic: New Approaches". Twelve genotoxic and carcinogenic chemicals that can be present in food were selected for calculation of a Margin of Exposure (MOE) between a point of departure on the dose-response for oral carcinogenicity in animal studies and estimates of human dietary exposure. The MOE can be used to support prioritisation of risk management action and, if the MOE is very large, on communication of a low level of human health concern. Depending on the approaches taken in determining the point of departure and the estimation of exposure, it is possible to derive very different values for the MOE. It is therefore essential that the selection of the cancer endpoint and mathematical treatment of the data are clearly described and justified if the results of the MOE approach are to be trusted and of value to risk managers. An outline framework for calculating an MOE is proposed in order to help to ensure transparency in the results.

The effects of triclosan on puberty and thyroid hormones in male Wistar rats.

Triclosan (5-chloro-2-(2,4-dichlorophenoxy)phenol) is a potent antibacterial and antifungal compound that is widely used in personal care products, plastics, and fabrics. Recently triclosan has been shown to alter endocrine function in a variety of species. The purpose of this study was to determine effects of triclosan on pubertal development and thyroid hormone concentrations in the male rat. Weanling rats were exposed to 0, 3, 30, 100, 200, or 300 mg/kg of triclosan by oral gavage from postnatal day (PND) 23 to 53. Preputial separation (PPS) was examined beginning on PND 33. Rats were killed on PND 53, organ weights were recorded and serum was collected for subsequent analysis. Triclosan did not affect growth or the onset of PPS. Serum testosterone was significantly decreased at 200 mg/kg, however no effects were observed on androgen-dependent reproductive tissue weights. Triclosan significantly decreased total serum thyroxine (T4) in a dose-dependent manner at 30 mg/kg and higher (no observed effect level of 3 mg/kg). Triiodothyronine (T3) was significantly decreased only at 200 mg/kg, but thyroid stimulating hormone was not statistically different at any dose. Liver weights were significantly increased at 100 mg/kg triclosan and above suggesting that the induction of hepatic enzymes may have contributed to the altered T4 and T3 concentrations, but it does not appear to correlate with the T4 dose-response. This study demonstrates that triclosan exposure does not alter androgen-dependent tissue weights or onset of PPS; however, triclosan exposure significantly impacts thyroid hormone concentrations in the male juvenile rat.