Dynamic prediction of work status for workers with occupational injuries: assessing the value of longitudinal observations.

OBJECTIVE: Occupational injuries (OIs) cause an immense burden on the US population. Prediction models help focus resources on those at greatest risk of a delayed return to work (RTW). RTW depends on factors that develop over time; however, existing methods only utilize information collected at the time of injury. We investigate the performance benefits of dynamically estimating RTW, using longitudinal observations of diagnoses and treatments collected beyond the time of initial injury. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We characterize the difference in predictive performance between an approach that uses information collected at the time of initial injury (baseline model) and a proposed approach that uses longitudinal information collected over the course of the patient's recovery period (proposed model). To control the comparison, both models use the same deep learning architecture and differ only in the information used. We utilize a large longitudinal observation dataset of OI claims and compare the performance of the two approaches in terms of daily prediction of future work state (working vs not working). The performance of these two approaches was assessed in terms of the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC) and expected calibration error (ECE). RESULTS: After subsampling and applying inclusion criteria, our final dataset covered 294 103 OIs, which were split evenly between train, development, and test datasets (1/3, 1/3, 1/3). In terms of discriminative performance on the test dataset, the proposed model had an AUROC of 0.728 (90% confidence interval: 0.723, 0.734) versus the baseline's 0.591 (0.585, 0.598). The proposed model had an ECE of 0.004 (0.003, 0.005) versus the baseline's 0.016 (0.009, 0.018). CONCLUSION: The longitudinal approach outperforms current practice and shows potential for leveraging observational data to dynamically update predictions of RTW in the setting of OI. This approach may enable physicians and workers' compensation programs to manage large populations of injured workers more effectively.

Persistence survey of toxic shock syndrome toxin-1 producing Staphylococcus aureus and serum antibodies to this superantigen in five groups of menstruating women.

BACKGROUND: Menstrual Toxic Shock Syndrome (mTSS) is thought to be associated with the vaginal colonization with specific strains of Staphylococcus aureus TSST-1 in women who lack sufficient antibody titers to this toxin. There are no published studies that examine the seroconversion in women with various colonization patterns of this organism. Thus, the aim of this study was to evaluate the persistence of Staphylococcus aureus colonization at three body sites (vagina, nares, and anus) and serum antibody to toxic shock syndrome toxin-producing Staphylococcus aureus among a small group of healthy, menstruating women evaluated previously in a larger study. METHODS: One year after the completion of that study, 311 subjects were recalled into 5 groups. Four samples were obtained from each participant at several visits over an additional 6-11 month period: 1) an anterior nares swab; 2) an anal swab; 3) a vagina swab; and 4) a blood sample. Gram stain, a catalase test, and a rapid S. aureus-specific latex agglutination test were performed to phenotypically identify S. aureus from sample swabs. A competitive ELISA was used to quantify TSST-1 production. Human TSST-1 IgG antibodies were determined from the blood samples using a sandwich ELISA method. RESULTS: We found only 41% of toxigenic S. aureus and 35.5% of non-toxigenic nasal carriage could be classified as persistent. None of the toxigenic S. aureus vaginal or anal carriage could be classified as persistent. Despite the low persistence of S. aureus colonization, subjects colonized with a toxigenic strain were found to display distributions of antibody titers skewed toward higher titers than other subjects. Seven percent (5/75) of subjects became seropositive during recall, but none experienced toxic shock syndrome-like symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: Nasal carriage of S. aureus appears to be persistent and the best predicator of subsequent colonization, whereas vaginal and anal carriage appear to be more transient. From these findings, it appears that antibody titers in women found to be colonized with toxigenic S. aureus remained skewed toward higher titers whether or not the colonies were found to be persistent or transient in nature. This suggests that colonization at some point in time is sufficient to elevate antibody titer levels and those levels appear to be persistent. Results also indicate that women can become seropositive without experiencing signs or symptoms of toxic shock syndrome.

Structural and functional properties of antibodies to the superantigen TSST-1 and their relationship to menstrual toxic shock syndrome.

Menstrual toxic shock syndrome (mTSS) is an acute febrile disease accompanied by hypotension and multiple organ involvement. Infection with Staphylococcus aureus producing the superantigen toxic shock syndrome toxin-1 (TSST-1) vaginally is necessary; however, only a small fraction of those infected with TSST-1 producing bacteria actually develop mTSS, suggesting that host factors modulate disease susceptibility. Serum antibodies to the toxin protect against development of the syndrome, but not all antibodies can neutralize the toxin. We set out to determine whether risk of developing the syndrome is related to the absence of neutralizing antibody and if antibody isotypes influence the neutralization capacity. In healthy subjects, TSST-1-binding serum antibodies were exclusively of the IgG and IgM classes; however, toxin-neutralizing capacity was correlated to the TSST-1-specific IgG1 and IgG4 antibodies (r (2)=0.88, p<0.0001 and 0.33, p<0.0086, respectively) but not with IgM antibodies. Specific IgA was not detectable. Compared to healthy matched controls who were colonized vaginally with S. aureus, IgG1 anti-TSST-1 antibodies and toxin neutralizing activity was lacking in all of the acute phases and in the majority of convalescent sera, suggesting that these patients may be incapable of generating TSST-1 neutralizing antibodies. These new findings support the hypothesis that host factors are important in the development of mTSS and that the anti-toxin isotype impacts antibody functionality.

Prevalence of toxic shock syndrome toxin 1-producing Staphylococcus aureus and the presence of antibodies to this superantigen in menstruating women.

Menstrual toxic shock syndrome (mTSS) is thought to be associated with colonization with toxic shock syndrome toxin 1 (TSST-1)-producing Staphylococcus aureus in women with insufficient antibody titers. mTSS has been associated with menstruation and tampon use, and although it is rare, the effects can be life threatening. It remains of interest because of the widespread use of tampons, reported to be about 70% of women in the United States, Canada, and much of Western Europe. This comprehensive study was designed to determine S. aureus colonization and TSST-1 serum antibody titers in 3,012 menstruating women in North America between the ages of 13 and 40, particularly among age and racial groups that could not be assessed reliably in previous small studies. One out of every four subjects was found to be colonized with S. aureus in at least one of three body sites (nose, vagina, or anus), with approximately 9% colonized vaginally. Eighty-five percent of subjects had antibody titers (> or =1:32) to TSST-1, and the vast majority (81%) of teenaged subjects (13 to 18 years) had already developed antibody titers. Among carriers of toxigenic S. aureus, a significantly lower percentage of black women than of white or Hispanic women were found to have antibody titers (> or =1:32) to TSST-1 (89% versus 98% and 100%). These findings demonstrate that the majority of teenagers have antibody titers (> or =1:32) to TSST-1 and are presumed to be protected from mTSS. These findings also suggest that black women may be more susceptible to mTSS than previously thought.

Detection of Staphylococcus aureus biofilm on tampons and menses components.

Culturing has detected vaginal Staphylococcus aureus in 10%-20% of women. Because growth mode can affect virulence expression, this study examined S. aureus-biofilm occurrence in 44 paired-tampon and vaginal-wash-specimens from 18 prescreened women, using fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH). All 44 specimens were also analyzed for S. aureus by standard culturing on mannitol salt agar, which produced positive results for 15 of the 44 specimens. FISH detected S. aureus cells in all 44 specimens, and S. aureus biofilm was observed in 37 of the 44 specimens. Independent confirmation of the presence of S. aureus in specimens from all 18 women was also obtained by amplification, via polymerase chain reaction, of an S. aureus-specific nuclease gene. The results of this study demonstrate that S. aureus biofilm can form on tampons and menses components in vivo. Additionally, the prevalence of vaginal S. aureus carriage may be more prevalent than what is currently demonstrated by standard culturing techniques.