Stability trophic cascades in food chains.

While previous studies have evaluated the change in stability for the addition or removal of individual species from trophic food chains and food webs, we know of no study that presents a general theory for how stability changes with the addition or removal of trophic levels. In this study, we present a simple model of a linear food chain and systematically evaluate how stability-measured as invariability-changes with the addition or removal of trophic levels. We identify the presence of trophic cascades in the stability of species. Owing to top-down control by predation and bottom-up regulation by prey, we find that stability of a species is highest when it is at the top of the food chain and lowest when it is just under the top of the food chain. Thus, stability shows patterns identical to those of mean biomass with the addition or removal of trophic levels in food chains. Our results provide a baseline towards a general theory of the effect of adding or removing trophic levels on stability, which can be used to inform empirical studies.

Species dispersal and biodiversity in human-dominated metacommunities.

The concept of the Anthropocene is based on the idea that human impacts are now the primary drivers of changes in the earth's systems, including ecological systems. In many cases, the behavior that causes ecosystem change is itself triggered by ecological factors. Yet most ecological models still treat human impacts as given, and frequently as constant. This undermines our ability to understand the feedbacks between human behavior and ecosystem change. Focusing on the problem of species dispersal, we evaluate the effect of dispersal on biodiversity in a system subject to predation by humans. People are assumed to obtain benefits from (a) the direct consumption of species (provisioning services), (b) the non-consumptive use of species (cultural services), and (c) the buffering effects of the mix of species (regulating services). We find that the effects of dispersal on biodiversity depend jointly on the competitive interactions among species, and on human preferences over species and the services they provide. We find that while biodiversity may be greatest at intermediate levels of dispersal, this depends on structure of preferences across the metacommunity.

The Effect of the Post 2001 Reforms on FMD Risks of the International Live Animal Trade.

The 2001 UK foot and mouth disease (FMD) epidemic marked a change in global FMD management, focusing less on trade isolation than on biosecurity within countries where FMD is endemic. Post 2001 policy calls for the isolation of disease-free zones in FMD-endemic countries, while increasing the opportunities for trade. The impact of the change on disease risk has yet to be tested. In this paper, we estimate an empirical model of disease risk that tests for the impact of trade volumes before and after 2001, controlling for biosecurity measures. In the pre 2001 regime, we find that poor biosecurity was associated with the probability of reporting an outbreak. In the post 2001 regime, the risks changed, with trade being a much greater source of risk. We discuss the trade-off between trade restrictions and biosecurity measures in the management of FMD disease risks.

Forecasting the 2001 Foot-and-Mouth Disease Epidemic in the UK.

Near real-time epidemic forecasting approaches are needed to respond to the increasing number of infectious disease outbreaks. In this paper, we retrospectively assess the performance of simple phenomenological models that incorporate early sub-exponential growth dynamics to generate short-term forecasts of the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in the UK. For this purpose, we employed the generalized-growth model (GGM) for pre-peak predictions and the generalized-Richards model (GRM) for post-peak predictions. The epidemic exhibits a growth-decelerating pattern as the relative growth rate declines inversely with time. The uncertainty of the parameter estimates [Formula: see text] narrows down and becomes more precise using an increasing amount of data of the epidemic growth phase. Indeed, using only the first 10-15 days of the epidemic, the scaling of growth parameter (p) displays wide uncertainty with the confidence interval for p ranging from values ~ 0.5 to 1.0, indicating that less than 15 epidemic days of data are not sufficient to discriminate between sub-exponential (i.e., p < 1) and exponential growth dynamics (i.e., p = 1). By contrast, using 20, 25, or 30 days of epidemic data, it is possible to recover estimates of p around 0.6 and the confidence interval is substantially below the exponential growth regime. Local and national bans on the movement of livestock and a nationwide cull of infected and contiguous premises likely contributed to the decelerating trajectory of the epidemic. The GGM and GRM provided useful 10-day forecasts of the epidemic before and after the peak of the epidemic, respectively. Short-term forecasts improved as the model was calibrated with an increasing length of the epidemic growth phase. Phenomenological models incorporating generalized-growth dynamics are useful tools to generate short-term forecasts of epidemic growth in near real time, particularly in the context of limited epidemiological data as well as information about transmission mechanisms and the effects of control interventions.

Biodiversity, productivity, and the spatial insurance hypothesis revisited.

Accelerating rates of biodiversity loss have led ecologists to explore the effects of species richness on ecosystem functioning and the flow of ecosystem services. One explanation of the relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning lies in the spatial insurance hypothesis, which centers on the idea that productivity and stability increase with biodiversity in a temporally varying, spatially heterogeneous environment. However, there has been little work on the impact of dispersal where environmental risks are more or less spatially correlated, or where dispersal rates are variable. In this paper, we extend the original Loreau model to consider stochastic temporal variation in resource availability, which we refer to as "environmental risk", and heterogeneity in species dispersal rates. We find that asynchronies across communities and species provide community-level stabilizing effects on productivity, despite varying levels of species richness. Although intermediate dispersal rates play a role in mitigating risk, they are less effective in insuring productivity against global (metacommunity-level) than local (individual community-level) risks. These results are particularly interesting given the emergence of global sources of risk such as climate change or the closer integration of world markets. Our results offer deeper insights into the Loreau model and new perspectives on the effectiveness of spatial insurance in the face of environmental risks.

The control of invasive species on private property with neighbor-to-neighbor spillovers.

Invasive pests cross property boundaries. Property managers may have private incentives to control invasive species despite not having sufficient incentive to fully internalize the external costs of their role in spreading the invasion. Each property manager has a right to future use of his own property, but his property may abut others' properties enabling spread of an invasive species. The incentives for a foresighted property manager to control invasive species have received little attention. We consider the efforts of a foresighted property manager who has rights to future use of a property and has the ability to engage in repeated, discrete control activities. We find that higher rates of dispersal, associated with proximity to neighboring properties, reduce the private incentives for control. Controlling species at one location provides incentives to control at a neighboring location. Control at neighboring locations are strategic complements and coupled with spatial heterogeneity lead to a weaker-link public good problem, in which each property owner is unable to fully appropriate the benefits of his own control activity. Future-use rights and private costs suggest that there is scope for a series of Coase-like exchanges to internalize much of the costs associated with species invasion. Pigouvian taxes on invasive species potentially have qualitatively perverse behavioral effects. A tax with a strong income effect (e.g, failure of effective revenue recycling) can reduce the value of property assets and diminish the incentive to manage insects on one's own property.