Modelling the impacts of climate change on cereal crop production in East Africa: evidence from heterogeneous panel cointegration analysis.

Climate change has become an issue of concern for sustainable agriculture production. East African nations are heavily reliant on the agriculture sector, which accounts for a substantial amount of their gross domestic product (GDP) and employment. Due to climatic fluctuations, the output of the sector became very unpredictable. Hence, this study investigates the effects of climate change on cereal crop production in nine East African nations between 1990 and 2018. The study implemented pooled mean group (PMG) approach to examine the long-run and short-run dynamic impacts of the varying climatic circumstances on the output of cereal crops. The results reveal that rainfall and carbon emissions have favourable and significant long-run effects on cereal crop output, even though their short-run impacts are negligible. Additionally, cultivated land area and rural population have a constructive role in enhancing agricultural output both in the long-run and short-run. However, average temperatures have negative repercussions on cereal crop production in the long-run and short-run, even though the magnitude of sensitivity is greater in the short-run. Dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) and fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) validated the robustness of the long-run findings of the PMG technique. Besides, the Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality outcomes indicate that cereal crop output has a bidirectional causality with temperature, carbon emissions, and cropped area. The study further demonstrated unidirectional causation from rural population to cereal crop yield. The study recommends that East African policymakers improve the quality of farm inputs, the adoption of climate-resilient farming practices, the development of water retention facilities and the establishment of crop diversification initiatives.

Examining the effects of climate change and political instability on maize production in Somalia.

Agricultural production is sensitive to climate variability, so climate change-agriculture sector nexus is topical in developing countries. To this end, this study examines the impact of climate change variables-rainfall and temperature-and non-climatic factors on maize production in Somalia for the period between 1980 and 2018 using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound test, dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS), variance decomposition(VD), and impulse response function (IRF). The empirical results of the ARDL bound test confirmed the presence of long-run cointegration between the dependent variable and the explanatory variables. Furthermore, the long-run results revealed that average temperature, average rainfall, and political instability significantly inhibit maize production in the long and short runs, but rainfall has a favorable effect on maize production in the short run. Furthermore, rural population and land area under maize cultivation have negative and positive effects on maize production in the long run, respectively-albeit they are statistically insignificant. The empirical results of the study are robust to different econometric methods. Based on these findings, the study emphasizes the importance of the de-escalation of conflicts and the implementation of irrigation facilities which will enhance the productivity of maize crop production.

Extreme climatic effects hamper livestock production in Somalia.

Given the enormous impact of the livestock sector on Somalia's economy and its vulnerability to climate variations, this study investigates short and long-term changes in climatic effects on livestock production by using data spanning from 1985 to 2016. To this end, the ARDL bounds testing and causality techniques were employed to model the long-run and short-run relationships, and direction of causality among sampled variables. Overall, the empirical results confirmed the existence of a stable long-run cointegration between variables. Rainfall and temperature patterns were found to have a significant positive and negative impact on livestock production both in the long run and short run, respectively. The observed carbon dioxide emissions have no significant impact on livestock production in the long run but enhance livestock production in the short run. Interestingly, growth in rural population declines livestock production in the long run but not in the short run. Besides, a unidirectional causality is confirmed from temperature to rainfall and CO2 whereas livestock production has a bidirectional causal relationship with rainfall and temperature. While CO2 emissions granger cause livestock production, a unidirectional causation is observed from rural population to temperature and livestock production. This study suggests adaptation and mitigation policies that combat the negative consequences of climate change.

Climate change and crop production nexus in Somalia: an empirical evidence from ARDL technique.

The purpose of this research examination is to ascertain the effect of climate change, measured rainfall, temperature, and CO2, on crop production by using data spanning from 1985 to 2016 in Somalia. ARDL bounds testing approach and Granger causality were employed to model the long-run and short-run cointegrations and the causality directions respectively of the scrutinized variables. The empirical results of the study found a long cointegration between the variables. It revealed that rainfall improves crop production in the long-run but hampers in the short-run, whereas temperature has adverse effect on crop production both in the long and short runs. But carbon dioxide emissions do not have any significant effect on crop production. Among other determinants, agriculture labour and land under cereal cultivation have a negative and positive impact on crop productivity in the long-run, respectively. In contrast, unidirectional causality is observed from agriculture and land under cereal cultivation to temperature, while another unidirectional causality is established from carbon dioxide emission to land under cereal cultivation. Hence, the policymakers should formulate coherent adaptation measures and mitigation policies to tackle the already felt effect of the changing climate on the agriculture sector to rebuild resilient and sustainable agriculture production in Somalia.