Recent wetting trend over Taklamakan and Gobi Desert dominated by internal variability.

The Taklamakan and Gobi Desert (TGD) region has experienced a pronounced increase in summer precipitation, including high-impact extreme events, over recent decades. Despite identifying large-scale circulation changes as a key driver of the wetting trend, understanding the relative contributions of internal variability and external forcings remains limited. Here, we approach this problem by using a hierarchy of numerical simulations, complemented by diverse statistical analysis tools. Our results offer strong evidence that the atmospheric internal variations primarily drive this observed trend. Specifically, recent changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation have redirected the storm track, leading to increased extratropical storms entering TGD and subsequently more precipitation. A clustering analysis further demonstrates that these linkages predominantly operate at the synoptic scale, with larger contributions from large precipitation events. Our analysis highlights the crucial role of internal variability, in addition to anthropogenic forcing, when seeking a comprehensive understanding of future precipitation trends in TGD.

Assessing the Influence of COVID-19 on the Shortwave Radiative Fluxes Over the East Asian Marginal Seas.

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic led to a widespread reduction in aerosol emissions. Using satellite observations and climate model simulations, we study the underlying mechanisms of the large decreases in solar clear-sky reflection (3.8 W m-2 or 7%) and aerosol optical depth (0.16 W m-2 or 32%) observed over the East Asian Marginal Seas in March 2020. By separating the impacts from meteorology and emissions in the model simulations, we find that about one-third of the clear-sky anomalies can be attributed to pandemic-related emission reductions, and the rest to weather variability and long-term emission trends. The model is skillful at reproducing the observed interannual variations in solar all-sky reflection, but no COVID-19 signal is discerned. The current observational and modeling capabilities will be critical for monitoring, understanding, and predicting the radiative forcing and climate impacts of the ongoing crisis.

Using the fast impact of anthropogenic aerosols on regional land temperature to constrain aerosol forcing.

Anthropogenic aerosols have been postulated to have a cooling effect on climate, but its magnitude remains uncertain. Using atmospheric general circulation model simulations, we separate the land temperature response into a fast response to radiative forcings and a slow response to changing oceanic conditions and find that the former accounts for about one fifth of the observed warming of the Northern Hemisphere land during summer and autumn since the 1960s. While small, this fast response can be constrained by observations. Spatially varying aerosol effects can be detected on the regional scale, specifically warming over Europe and cooling over Asia. These results provide empirical evidence for the important role of aerosols in setting regional land temperature trends and point to an emergent constraint that suggests strong global aerosol forcing and high transient climate response.

Spatially similar surface energy flux perturbations due to greenhouse gases and aerosols.

Despite distinct geographic distributions of top-of-the-atmosphere radiative forcing, anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols have been found to produce similar patterns of climate response in atmosphere-and-ocean coupled climate model simulations. Understanding surface energy flux changes, a crucial pathway by which atmospheric forcing is communicated to the ocean, is a vital bridge to explaining the similar full atmosphere-and-ocean responses to these disparate forcings. Here we analyze the fast, atmosphere-driven change in surface energy flux caused by present-day greenhouse gases vs aerosols to elucidate its role in shaping the subsequent slow, coupled response. We find that the surface energy flux response patterns achieve roughly two-thirds of the anti-correlation seen in the fully coupled response, driven by Rossby waves excited by symmetric changes to the land-sea contrast. Our results suggest that atmosphere and land surface processes are capable of achieving substantial within-hemisphere homogenization in the climate response to disparate forcers on fast, societally-relevant timescales.

Blind Forensics of Successive Geometric Transformations in Digital Images Using Spectral Method: Theory and Applications.

Geometric transformations, such as resizing and rotation, are almost always needed when two or more images are spliced together to create convincing image forgeries. In recent years, researchers have developed many digital forensic techniques to identify these operations. Most previous works in this area focus on the analysis of images that have undergone single geometric transformations, e.g., resizing or rotation. In several recent works, researchers have addressed yet another practical and realistic situation: successive geometric transformations, e.g., repeated resizing, resizing-rotation, rotation-resizing, and repeated rotation. We will also concentrate on this topic in this paper. Specifically, we present an in-depth analysis in the frequency domain of the second-order statistics of the geometrically transformed images. We give an exact formulation of how the parameters of the first and second geometric transformations influence the appearance of periodic artifacts. The expected positions of characteristic resampling peaks are analytically derived. The theory developed here helps to address the gap left by previous works on this topic and is useful for image security and authentication, in particular, the forensics of geometric transformations in digital images. As an application of the developed theory, we present an effective method that allows one to distinguish between the aforementioned four different processing chains. The proposed method can further estimate all the geometric transformation parameters. This may provide useful clues for image forgery detection.