RESUMO
Previous single-model experiments have found that Arctic sea ice loss can influence the atmospheric circulation. To evaluate this process in a multimodel ensemble, a novel methodology is here presented and applied to infer the influence of Arctic sea ice loss in the CMIP5 future projections. Sea ice influence is estimated by comparing the circulation response in the RCP8.5 scenario against the circulation response to sea surface warming and CO2 increase inferred from the AMIPFuture and AMIP4xCO2 experiments, where sea ice is unperturbed. Multimodel evidence of the impact of sea ice loss on midlatitude atmospheric circulation is identified in late winter (January-March), when the sea ice-related surface heat flux perturbation is largest. Sea ice loss acts to suppress the projected poleward shift of the North Atlantic jet, to increase surface pressure in northern Siberia, and to lower it in North America. These features are consistent with previous single-model studies, and the present results indicate that they are robust to model formulation.
RESUMO
Stratospheric water vapour is a powerful greenhouse gas. The longest available record from balloon observations over Boulder, Colorado, USA shows increases in stratospheric water vapour concentrations that cannot be fully explained by observed changes in the main drivers, tropical tropopause temperatures and methane. Satellite observations could help resolve the issue, but constructing a reliable long-term data record from individual short satellite records is challenging. Here we present an approach to merge satellite data sets with the help of a chemistry-climate model nudged to observed meteorology. We use the models' water vapour as a transfer function between data sets that overcomes issues arising from instrument drift and short overlap periods. In the lower stratosphere, our water vapour record extends back to 1988 and water vapour concentrations largely follow tropical tropopause temperatures. Lower and mid-stratospheric long-term trends are negative, and the trends from Boulder are shown not to be globally representative. In the upper stratosphere, our record extends back to 1986 and shows positive long-term trends. The altitudinal differences in the trends are explained by methane oxidation together with a strengthened lower-stratospheric and a weakened upper-stratospheric circulation inferred by this analysis. Our results call into question previous estimates of surface radiative forcing based on presumed global long-term increases in water vapour concentrations in the lower stratosphere.
RESUMO
In the past several decades, the tropospheric westerly winds in the Southern Hemisphere have been observed to accelerate on the poleward side of the surface wind maximum. This has been attributed to the combined anthropogenic effects of increasing greenhouse gases and decreasing stratospheric ozone and is predicted to continue by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change/Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC/AR4) models. In this paper, the predictions of the Chemistry-Climate Model Validation (CCMVal) models are examined: Unlike the AR4 models, the CCMVal models have a fully interactive stratospheric chemistry. Owing to the expected disappearance of the ozone hole in the first half of the 21st century, the CCMVal models predict that the tropospheric westerlies in Southern Hemisphere summer will be decelerated, on the poleward side, in contrast with the prediction of most IPCC/AR4 models.
RESUMO
BACKGROUND: The PEA3 Ets transcription factor is overexpressed in the vast majority of human breast tumors and in nearly all of those of the HER2/Neu-positive subclass. PEA3 is also overexpressed in various transgenic mouse models of this disease. Whether PEA3 plays an essential role in HER2/Neu-mediated oncogenesis has heretofore not been addressed. RESULTS: Here, we report that each of the three highly related ets genes of the pea3 subfamily (pea3, er81, and erm) were coordinately overexpressed in mammary tumors of MMTV-neu transgenic mice. Other ets genes normally expressed in the mammary gland were not upregulated in these tumors. Expression of a dominant-negative pea3 transgene under the control of the MMTV promoter in mammary epithelial cells of MMTV-neu transgenic mice dramatically delayed the onset of mammary tumors and reduced the number and size of such tumors in individual mice. Those tumors that arose in bitransgenic mice expressed the MMTV-neu transgene, but not the MMTV-dominant-negative pea3 transgene. CONCLUSIONS: These findings imply that one or more of the PEA3 subfamily Ets proteins or other Ets proteins with related DNA binding specificity play an essential role in Neu-mediated mammary oncogenesis. Hence, agents that inhibit the expression or activity of the PEA3 subfamily proteins may prove efficacious in the treatment of breast cancer.
